Lebanon: Commentators Speculate on Composition of a New Government
With the collapse of Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s government yesterday, speculation over negotiations for a new government has already begun. Juan Cole, posting at his blog Informed Comment, suggested that a new Lebanese government could be dominated by the March 8 movement and Hezbollah. Hariri’s inflexibility on the tribunal issue, under US pressure, may be to blame for the collapse: “If so, Washington may have hoisted itself by its own petard, since the last thing it wanted was a March 8 government in Beirut.” Michael Young noted that an “unidentified American official” called any Syrian-Saudi agreement that would undermine the tribunal “blackmail.” Elias Muhanna posted that Lebanese President Michel Suleiman will begin consultations on Monday to select a new PM. Hezbollah has already stated it will push for a candidate with a strong “pro-resistance record.” Both Young and Muhanna speculate on the role of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt in the new government, given his history of changing alliances within the government.