Lebanon: Commentators Speculate on Composition of a New Government

With the collapse of Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s government yesterday, speculation over negotiations for a new government has already begun.   Juan Cole, posting at his blog Informed Comment, suggested that a new Lebanese government could be dominated by the March 8 movement and Hezbollah.  Hariri’s inflexibility on the tribunal issue, under US pressure, may be to blame for the collapse: “If so, Washington may have hoisted itself by its own petard, since the last thing it wanted was a March 8 government in Beirut.”  Michael Young noted that an “unidentified American official” called any Syrian-Saudi agreement that would undermine the tribunal “blackmail.”   Elias Muhanna posted that Lebanese President Michel Suleiman will begin consultations on Monday to select a new PM. Hezbollah has already stated it will push for a candidate with a strong “pro-resistance record.”  Both Young and Muhanna speculate on the role of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt in the new government, given his history of changing alliances within the government.

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