POMED Notes: “Crisis in Lebanon: Sectarian Politics, Regional Dynamics, and the U.N. Special Tribunal”
December 8th, 2010 by Jason
The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) held a panel discussion Wednesday titled “Crisis in Lebanon: Sectarian Politics, Regional Dynamics, and the U.N. Special Tribunal.” The speakers were Aram Nerguizian, a scholar with the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Randa Slim, an independent consultant and a board member of the International Institute for Sustained Dialogue and the Project on Middle East Democracy, Andrew J. Tabler, a Next Generation Fellow in the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, and Mona Yacoubian, head of the Lebanon Working Group at USIP and special adviser to USIP’s Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or click here for pdf.)
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Posted in Civil Society, DC Event Notes, Hezbollah, Israel, Judiciary, Lebanon, Military, Political Parties, Saudi Arabia, Sectarianism, Syria, US foreign policy, United Nations | Comment »
Iraq: “Violent Agreement” on U.S. Strategy Going Forward
December 3rd, 2010 by Jason
A new paper titled “Unfinished Business: An American Strategy for Iraq Moving Forward,” has been well received by Marc Lynch at Foreign Policy. “I’m impressed with the Unfinished Business report, and find that it reflects many of the conversations I’ve had with its authors and with various U.S. and Iraqi players over the last year. […] Now that the firm commitment to withdrawal established, it’s appropriate and healthy to be actively and intensely engaged in Iraqi politics.” Lynch also points to an op-ed that he and John Nagl wrote in the Christian Science Monitor yesterday, before either had read the report, that comes to similar conclusions about U.S. strategy moving forward: “Today, those who backed the 2007 ’surge’ should be keen to see its gains consolidated, while those who called for withdrawal should be keen to make sure that as it happens, disaster does not follow. And while Iraq certainly needs to step up its political game, the US must also muster the bipartisan political strength and will to help build a stable Iraq that can be a partner to the US.”
Posted in Foreign Aid, Iraq, Military, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Unfinished Business: An American Strategy for Iraq Moving Forward”
December 2nd, 2010 by Jason
The Brookings Institution held an event on Thursday to mark the release of the analysis paper “Unfinished Business: An American Strategy for Iraq Moving Forward.” The event’s participants were all co-authors of the paper and included Kenneth M. Pollack, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, J. Scott Carpenter, the Keston Family Fellow at the Washington Institute and director of Project Fikra, and Sean Kane, a program officer with the United States Institute of Peace’s Iraq Programs.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or click here for pdf.)
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Posted in DC Event Notes, Elections, Foreign Aid, Iraq, Kurds, Military, Political Parties, Reform, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Yemen: Central Problems are Ineffective Government, Mismanaged Economy
November 3rd, 2010 by Anna
Oliver Holmes writes at Al Jazeera that counterterrorism dollars for Yemen are missing “the crux of the problem – Yemen’s struggling economy.” By focusing their efforts on terrorism, rather than development, leaders in Washington risk ignoring the country’s worsening economic situation. The troubled economy arguably poses a bigger threat and risks “drawing [Yemenis] towards radicalization and militancy,” according to a recent Chatham House report. As Christopher Boucek of the Carnegie Middle East Program points out, “unemployment, subsidies, the failure to plan for a post-oil economy and corruption…are the biggest challenges.” As such, interventions to improve security must be balanced with efforts to improve Yemen’s political and economic development. According to one official: “The economy is highly mismanaged due to the ineffectiveness of the government,” which exacerbates frustration among the population and worsens security problems. U.S. air strikes “won’t solve anything,” notes Princeton University Yemen expert Gregory Johnsen – rather, firm commitments in development aid are needed.
Posted in Foreign Aid, Military, Terrorism, US foreign policy, Yemen | Comment »
POMED Notes: “19th Annual Arab-US Policymakers Conference”
October 22nd, 2010 by Jason
The National Council on US-Arab Relations held its 19th annual Arab-US Policymakers Conference on Thursday. Opening remarks were made by Dr. John Duke Anthony, President and CEO of the National Council on US-Arab Relations and Rear Admiral Harold J. Bernsen, chairman of the Board of Directors at the National Council on US-Arab Relations. The first talk on the agenda was entitled “Arab-US Relations: Misadventures Past and Present,” and was given by The Honorable Chas W. Freeman Jr., former Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or go here for pdf.)
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Posted in DC Event Notes, Diplomacy, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Iraq, Islam and Democracy, Military, Neocons, Political Parties, Sectarianism, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iraq: Continued US Military Presence Post 2011?
September 30th, 2010 by Jason
Michael Eisenstadt, writing in Foreign Affairs, contends that “security is still job number one for the United States in Iraq,” but that the relationship must evolve to include “a strategic partnership with the government and people of Iraq.” Eisenstadt notes that the second election in a new democracy “often determines whether nascent democratic processes will take root and prove sustainable.” Accordingly, the indeterminate results of the March election–Iraq’s second–may portend the failure of the Iraqi system: “Some U.S. officials have hinted darkly that continued political gridlock could inspire a coup led by military officers who are frustrated with Iraq’s squabbling politicians.” Eisenstadt suggests the best leverage the US has to influence events in Iraq is the threat of a full troop withdrawal which would leave the Iraqis to their fates, “Many see a relationship with the United States as the only insurance policy against a return of sectarian militias and al Qaeda in Iraq, government repression and unilateralism […] a military coup, a Baathist revival, or undue Iranian influence.” He goes on to advocate for continued US military presence in Iraq after 2011, provided the Iraqis will allow it. In the end, Eisenstadt says, “The history of post-conflict states suggests that Iraq will gain political strength and cohesion, and will have a better chance of avoiding renewed civil war, if it goes through a national reconciliation process.”
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Military, US foreign policy | Comment »
Pakistan: Economic Woe Prompts Criticism From Military, US
September 29th, 2010 by Jason
The recent catastrophic flooding in Pakistan has caused tensions to rise between that country’s civilian government and it’s military. Jane Perlez writes in The New York Times that the seeming incompetence of President Asif Ali Zardari’s government has brought the question of a return to military rule back into play: “In a meeting on Monday[…]the army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, confronted the president and his prime minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, over incompetence and corruption in the government[…]the meeting was widely interpreted by the Pakistani news media[…]as a rebuke to the civilian politicians and as having pushed the government to the brink.”
Economic factors have also played a role in the row between the military and civilian leaders in Pakistan. Perlez reports that in a recent meeting, finance minister Hafiz Shaikh told a group of civilians and military officers that the Pakistani government had “enough money to pay only two months’ salaries,” due in part to the country’s inability to collect enough taxes. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton addressed this very issue yesterday at a gathering in Washington. Josh Rogin at Foreign Policy’s The Cable quotes Sec. Clinton: “‘Pakistan cannot have a tax rate of 9 percent of GDP when land owners and all of the other elites do not pay anything or pay so little it’s laughable, and then when there’s a problem everybody expects the United States and others to come in and help.’”
Posted in Military, Pakistan, Public Opinion, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Evaluating the State of Democracy in Pakistan”
September 23rd, 2010 by Jason
The United States Institute of Peace held a panel discussion Wednesday titled “Evaluating the State of Democracy in Pakistan”. The event was moderated by Moeed Yusuf, South Asia adviser and manager of the Pakistan program at USIP. The panel members were Mohammad Waseem, currently a visiting fellow at the Brooking Institution and professor of political science at Lahore University, Shahid Javed Burki, a former Senior Economist at the World Bank and current Senior Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center, and Sheila Fruman, Senior Country Director for Pakistan at the National Democratic Institute from 2006-2010.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or click here for pdf.)
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Posted in Civil Society, DC Event Notes, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Military, Pakistan, Political Parties, Public Opinion, Taliban, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: “What’s Next? Prospects for Iraq’s Democratic Future.”
September 20th, 2010 by Jason
The International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) held a panel discussion today to discuss the ongoing political impasse in Iraq. The event was moderated by Michael Svetlik, the Vice President of Programs for IFES. The speakers for the event were Ted Galen Carpenter, Vice President for Defense and Foreign Policy at the CATO Institute, Perry Cammack, a professional staff member for Senator John Kerry who focuses on the Middle East, and Sean Dunne, IFES Chief of Party in Iraq.
(To read full notes continue below the fold or click here for pdf)
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Posted in Civil Society, DC Event Notes, Elections, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Iraq, Judiciary, Kurds, Military, NGOs, Political Parties, Public Opinion, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Egypt at the Tipping Point?”
September 17th, 2010 by Anna
On Friday, David Ottaway gave a talk at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars titled “Egypt at the Tipping Point?” Ottaway – who is a senior scholar at the Wilson Center and the former Bureau Chief for the Washington Post in Cairo – discussed the findings from his recent paper, published in the Wilson Center Middle East Program’s Summer 2010 Occasional Paper Series. The talk was introduced and moderated by Haleh Esfandiari, the director of the Wilson Center’s Middle East Program.
(To read the full event summary, continue below. Or, click here to read the pdf.)
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Posted in DC Event Notes, Democracy Promotion, Egypt, Elections, Events, Freedom, Human Rights, Islamist movements, Journalism, Middle Eastern Media, Military, Muslim Brotherhood, NGOs, Political Parties, Protests, Public Opinion, Reform, US foreign policy | Comment »
Afghanistan: Time to Negotiate With the Taliban?
September 15th, 2010 by Jason
With parliamentary elections three days away and the beginning of a major offensive outside of Kandahar, worries about the coalition’s mission in Afghanistan are growing. Gilles Dorronsoro spotlights the deteriorating security condition in the country: “While it is still safe in Kabul, you can feel the Taliban tightening its hold around the capital.[…] The Taliban have a great deal of influence, but even where they haven’t established control, the Afghan government doesn’t enjoy any support.” Even NGOs are beginning to acknowledge the Taliban’s influence in the country: “The NGOs negotiate directly with Taliban leaders to ensure access to the Afghan people and carry out their programs. The process has become so formalized that international groups can now expect to receive a paper that is stamped and sealed by the Taliban outlining the permissions granted.” Dorronsoro concludes that it is time to begin negotiating with the Taliban and possibly bring them into a new coalition government, “…with assurances that Al Qaeda will not operate in Afghanistan again…”as part of the agreement.
Posted in Afghanistan, Elections, Islamist movements, Military, NGOs, Taliban, US foreign policy, al-Qaeda | Comment »
Turkey: Referendum Wrap Up Cont.
September 14th, 2010 by Evan
Analysis of Turkey’s constitutional referendum continues. An editorial in The Guardian argues that the world should judge AKP by its political and economic record, not by unfounded allegations that it has a hidden “Islamist” agenda: “A small revolution is taking place in a country whose history has been plagued by repression and army-backed coups, and it is happening democratically and bloodlessly. A system in which generals and judges held power, toppling four governments since 1960, is being rolled back with democratic consent.” An article in The National suggests the opposition party’s failure has helped AKP consolidate its control over the Turkish political system: “Turkey’s main opposition party is in such disarray that its leader could not even cast a vote in Sunday’s referendum on constitutional reforms. In his concession speech that night, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the chairman of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), had to apologise to his constituents because he had failed to make sure that his name was on the voting rolls. It was a fitting end to a bad day for Turkey’s once-dominant party.”
Posted in Civil Society, Judiciary, Military, Political Parties, Public Opinion, Turkey | Comment »
Egypt: The Military’s View of Succession
September 13th, 2010 by Jason
Thanassis Cambanis calls the Egyptian military “…the single most powerful institution in an autocratic state…” and writes that they are unlikely to support any candidate unless they have “…ironclad guarantees that it (the Egyptian military) would retain its pre-eminent position in the nation’s affairs.” Military leaders have expressed “reservations” about Gamal Mubarak as the NDP candidate for president. Their distrust of Gamal Mubarak is the result of ”…his ties to a younger generation of ruling party cadres who have made fortunes in the business world,” which could affect the military’s broad interests in the Egyptian economy.
Posted in Civil Society, Egypt, Elections, Military | Comment »
Pakistan: Democracy “Fake,” Needs Stronger State Institutions
September 13th, 2010 by Anna
In an interview with Viktor Kaspruk of the Ukrainian Week yesterday, public policy commentator and broadcaster Ahmed Quraishi lamented the lack of “real leaders” and self-confidence in Pakistan, calling democracy in the country “fake.” He contended that there is a “huge” governance problem in the country, criticizing a political system that is “run by families” and praising the Pakistani military for breaking ruling families’ monopoly in government. In his view, democratic reform in Pakistan must wait until the fractured state leadership is consolidated. He asserted that leaders should focus on building institutions first, adding: “In Pakistan, we need a visionary nationalistic leadership at the top backed by the strength of the Pakistani military.” Quraishi contrasted former president Pervez Musharraf and Russian president Vladimir Putin, praising the latter for “reassert[ing] Russia’s power.”
Posted in Military, Pakistan, Political Parties, Reform | Comment »
POMED Notes: New America Foundation “A New Way Forward? Rethinking U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan”
September 8th, 2010 by Jason
The New America Foundation held a panel discussion today to introduce the Afghanistan Study Group’s paper, “A New Way Forward: Rethinking U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan”. (PDF here) The panel members were all members of the study group, although not all of them signed the finished product making for an interesting discussion. The panel included Paul Pillar (Director of Graduate Studies, Center for Peace and Security Studies, Georgetown University and former intelligence officer), Matthew Hoh (Former Foreign Service Officer and Marine, Director, Afghanistan Study Group), Steve Coll (President of the New America Foundation), Brian Katulis (Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress), Charles Kupchan (Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, Professor of International Affairs, Georgetown University,Author, How Enemies Become Friends), Darcy Burner (Director, American Progressive Caucus Policy Foundation), Robert Pape (Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago Director, Chicago Project on Suicide Terrorism Author, Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism), and the event was moderated by Steve Clemons (Director, American Strategy Program, New America Foundation Publisher, The Washington Note).
(Continue below the fold for full notes or click here for PDF)
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Posted in Afghanistan, Civil Society, DC Event Notes, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Human Rights, Islamist movements, Military, NGOs, Pakistan, Sectarianism, Taliban, US foreign policy | Comment »
Egypt: NDP Rivalries Emerge
September 3rd, 2010 by Evan
Stephan Roll has a new piece on the fissures in Egypt’s ruling elite in the Carnegie Endowment’s Arab Reform Bulletin. According to Roll, the National Democratic Party’s leadership is divided between an old guard, which supports traditional, statist policies and a new guard composed of businessmen who favor further privatization. While the military has not actively supported either group, Roll believes that its nonintervention represents tacit support for the old guard. Gamal Mubarak finds himself in the middle of this political melee. Over the past decade, the younger Mubarak has been closely allied with the new, business-minded politicians but if he intends to pursue a presidential campaign will have to make an effort to appeal to the old guard and their allies in the military.
The outcome of this fall’s parliamentary election will play a large role in determining Mubarak’s strategy going forward: “If candidates supported by the new guard were to win a clear majority of NDP seats, this could help Gamal to marginalize the old guard and enhance his chances of becoming the ruling party candidate. Recent reports about candidate registration, however, suggest that many old guard members want to run for parliament, and their names will not be easily deleted from the nomination list.”
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Military, Political Parties | Comment »
Yemen: Ceasefire in the North and Military v. Develop Aid
September 2nd, 2010 by Jason
Brian O’Neill at Always Judged Guilty brings to our attention two recent articles in the Atlantic and the Wall Street Journal on developments in Yemen. The Atlantic article deals with the recent ceasefire between the Yemeni government and Houthi rebels in the north of the country. As O’Neill points out, “…the divisions are not cut-and-dried. This doesn’t fit the normal Sunni-Shi’ite clash we like to read about.” The WSJ article describes a growing gap between military assistance and civilian development assistance that one U.S. official describes as, “… tend(ing) to encourage a negative perspective in Yemen that all we care about is U.S. security.”O’Neill backs up this concern: “This seems on the face to be exactly what many are warning against- pumping in a flood of money to enhance the security services while leaving the massive underpinning structural issues untouched.” He goes on to define the “frustrating paradox of nation-building policies” as, “you can’t build a well while being shot, and the shooting won’t stop until there’s a well.”
On a more hopeful note, the National Democratic Institute has an article out describing their program to bring Yemeni youth together to teach them conflict resolution techniques. According to NDI, “With almost half of Yemen’s population under age 15 and another one-third aged 15 to 29, a significant percentage of the population is growing acclimated to violence as the primary means to address or resolve conflict.” The program focuses specifically the resolution of tribal conflicts and has already seen some success at the local level.
Posted in Civil Society, Islamist movements, Military, NGOs, Yemen, al-Qaeda | Comment »
Pakistan: Flood Response Damages Government’s Credibility
September 1st, 2010 by Anna
Amidst domestic perceptions that the Pakistani government’s response to the continuing flood crisis has been inadequate, some observers have asked whether the disaster will affect the country’s political future. Issam Ahmed writes in the Christian Science Monitor that President Asif Ali Zardari’s decision to continue his tour of Europe as the crisis grew “enraged ordinary Pakistanis.” This, in addition to the slow pace with which politicians addressed their constituents’ needs and the general sense that corruption plagues Pakistani politics, has increased “momentum in favor of military rule…among Pakistan’s upper-middle classes.” There is a growing perception that “at least the Army gets the job done” and is less corrupt than civilian politicians. According to one interviewee, the military is “pretty happy and pretty comfortable seeing the civilian process bleed like this.” Although positive perceptions of the military seem to be on the rise in Pakistan, some observers contend that no government, civilian or military, can truly meet popular expectations.
Posted in Military, Pakistan, Political Parties, Public Opinion | Comment »
Iraq: Reactions to President Obama’s Speech
September 1st, 2010 by Jason
Last night, President Barack Obama gave a speech from the Oval Office that declared the end of combat operations in Iraq (transcript). Reactions to the speech were varied. At Commentary, Jennifer Rubin describes the President’s reiteration of the deadline for withdrawal in Afghanistan and his remarks on the economy as, “…unhelpful, ungracious, and downright inaccurate…”, while Nick Gillespie at Reason laments that, “Politics is a marathon game of blaming the guy before you and kicking the can down the road until the next guy comes along…”. In an example of strange bedfellows, William Kristol remarks, “I thought his speech was on the whole commendable, and even at times impressive.” Joe Klein looks beyond the domestic reaction: “You can bet that the commitments he made to the Iraqis will be front page news in Baghdad tomorrow…”. Internationally, the BBC provides a comprehensive round up of reactions from figures in the region, human rights groups, and the United Nations.
Posted in Iraq, Military, US foreign policy, US media | Comment »
Iraq: Preview of President Obama’s Speech
August 31st, 2010 by Jason
President Barack Obama is scheduled to deliver a nationally televised address tonight marking the withdrawal of combat troops from Iraq. While the drawdown is significant, a large number of troops will remain: “…Americans need to understand that our troops are needed to assist the Iraqis on security matters…” notes the Wall Street Journal, adding “It would be a tragedy if after seven years of sacrifice, the U.S. now failed to assist Iraqis as they try to build a federal, democratic state in an often hostile neighborhood.” The recent political stalemate has caused concern in some quarters. While visiting Iraq, Vice President Joe Biden described the stalled formation of a government wryly: “…politics has broken out in Iraq.” Marc Lynch makes the case that the drawdown is “one of the largely unremarked bright spots in his (Obama’s) foreign policy record to date” and that the political situation would not change if troop levels stayed the same. “The only effect of delaying the drawdown would have been a hammer blow on U.S. credibility, informing all Iraqis that American commitments were always and only up for bargaining…”. The President himself stated that tonight’s speech will not be a “victory lap” but that, “There’s still a lot of work that we’ve got to do to make sure that Iraq is an effective partner with us.”
Posted in Iraq, Military, US foreign policy, US media | Comment »
