POMED Notes: “Ahmadinejad’s Confrontation with the Iranian Parliament”
On Wednesday, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars hosted a presentation by Bahman Baktiari, Director of the Middle East Center at the University of Utah, on the conflict between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the parliament. Haleh Esfandiari, Director of the Wilson Center’s Middle East program moderated the event.
(To read full notes, continue below or click here for a pdf.)
Baktiari opened his remarks by saying that as the U.S. and its European allies begin another round of talks with Iran on its nuclear program, the biggest question is how strong President Ahmadinejad’s position is at home. Internal Iranian political strife has scuttled nuclear negotiations before, Baktiari said, most notably in August 2009 when a group of parliamentarians openly expressed their disapproval of the President and his policies by boycotting his inauguration. According to Baktiari, the rivalry between Ahmadinejad and elements of the Iranian parliament goes back further than 2009. Since he was initially elected in 2005, Ahmadinejad’s foreign and economic policy decisions have “infuriated” many parliamentarians. Additionally, he has repeatedly and publically thumbed his nose at parliament, calling it a place for trouble makers and flaunting its reporting requirements with impunity, which has only engendered more hatred.
Throughout this process, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has maintained his support for Ahmadinejad’s presidency. At some point, possibly soon, Ahmadinejad will become a liability to the Supreme Leader. Conservative parliamentarians have openly criticized the President, Baktiari said, citing recent statements from MP Ahmad Tavakoli among others and “multiple” attempts to impeach the President over the past year. According to Baktiari, there are two important questions moving forward: first, will Ahmadinejad survive this struggle? And second, what impact will increased tension have on the rest of Iran’s political system?
In Iran, battle lines have clearly been drawn with Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani and his conservative allies on one side and the President on the other. The Iranian parliament generally lacks the power to address significant issues and has only limited oversight capacity, but parliamentarians can make the President and his allies’ lives “miserable” by publically criticizing the administration’s policies. Generally, parliamentarians are hesitant to do so for fear that the Guardian Council, which vets candidates for parliament, will view them as disloyal. For this reason, the extent of public dissent is even more remarkable, Baktiari said.
According to Baktiari, in the highly personal world of Iranian politics, the pervasive influence of the Larijani family cannot be understated. Larijani’s father, Hashem Amoli was a prominent cleric and his brothers hold important positions across the Iranian political system. Moreover, Ali Larijani has a close relationship with the Supreme Leader. Ahmadinejad is clearly aware of this. During the 2008 election, Ahmadinejad criticized the Larijani family’s influence and opposed the appointment of Sadegh Larijani to head Iran’s judiciary in 2009, viewing Larijani control of both the parliament and the judiciary as a “one-two punch.”
According to Baktiari, one of the greatest mysteries in Iran today is why Khamenei continues to support Ahmadinejad. His tentative analysis was that the Supreme Leader has invested too much in Ahmadinejad politically to reverse course. If Khamenei rescinded his support now, he would have to admit he made a mistake, which would bring the infallibility of his leadership into question and strengthen reformers who seek to limit the Supreme Leader’s power. Baktiari reiterated that it is unclear how long Khamenei can maintain this position before it becomes politically untenable. Even the Republican Guard is beginning to question Ahmadinejad’s leadership, Baktiari said, citing a recent article in a Guard publication criticizing the President for attacking parliament.
In conclusion, Baktiari noted that as Ahmadinejad battles parliament and the Supreme Leader becomes increasingly entangled in the struggle others, most notably Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, are waiting in the wings for the war of attrition to end. When it does, Rafsanjani will be well positioned to succeed Khamenei as Supreme Leader.
Esfandiari began the question and answer session by asking Baktiari to compare Larijani to previous parliamentary leaders. Baktiari responded that Larijani is unique because he comes from an important clerical family, has held a wide range of important positions, and unlike many of his predecessors he is ambitious. He has used his speakership adroitly to criticize Ahmadinejad while strengthening his own credentials. Another questioner asked Baktiari to comment on the significance of Khamenei’s recent trip to Qom. While cautioning that it is difficult to read such developments, Baktiari said that it is likely that the Supreme Leader’s visit was an attempt to gauge the level of opposition to Ahmadinejad among the clerics.
