August 31st, 2010 by Jason

Egypt’s upcoming presidential election and the U.S. role in supporting democracy are discussed in a PolicyWatch by J.Scott Carpenter. Written after consultation with a group of experts on the region, the article lays out the path ahead: “…the prevailing assumption in both Washington and Cairo has been that…Gamal Mubarak wins the presidency in rigged elections following his father’s death.” However, the emergence of the “ElBaradei phenomenon” and the lingering uncertainty about the elder Mubarak’s intentions have left room for speculation. While it is still safe to assume that Gamal is the favorite to succeed his father, the article points to other alternative candidates including Secretary-General Safwat al-Sharif and Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif. The deep bench of establishment candidates and the constitutional changes enacted in 2005 make an independent candidate’s odds long. ElBaradei, who is undoubtedly the best known candidate outside the current government, has “…refus(ed) so far to engage in retail politics and his recent decision to rely on the Muslim Brotherhood may preclude his candidacy, as the government is increasingly fearful about the latter connection.” According to Carpenter, the U.S. should, “…reiterate(s) early and often that it does not have a preferred candidate but expects the succession process to be open, transparent, and in accordance with international standards…” while also speaking out if  those conditions are not met.

Posted in Civil Society, Egypt, Elections |