Lebanon: Khamenei Dismisses STL, “Justice is More Important” Than Stability
December 21st, 2010 by Jason
Speaking during a meeting with the Qatari emir yesterday, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) “‘a rubber-stamp one whose verdict is null and void whatever it is.’” The Daily Star reports that the statement from the leader of Iran was not well received by many in Lebanon. “Labor Minister Butros Harb criticized Khamenei’s remarks, saying that it was up to the Lebanese to decide, ‘and not for others to dictate to them how to deal with the tribunal.’” Also in The Daily Star, Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir worries about a possible take over by Hizbullah: “The way Hizbullah is acting and their talk about becoming a significant force leads us to believe that if the party continues to pursue its plan it could seize power.” The patriarch also contradicted the recent assertion by Roger Cohen that stability “trumps” justice, saying “‘Justice is justice and if we sacrifice it once, we could sacrifice it many times. Stability is important but justice is more important and guarantees stability.’”
Posted in Hezbollah, Iran, Lebanon, Political Parties, Sectarianism | Comment »
Lebanon: Stability “Trumps” Justice
December 13th, 2010 by Jason
Roger Cohen, writing in The New York Times, describes Lebanon as a “gravity-defying…country with two armies, a ‘unity’ government too divided to meet, a wild real estate boom and a time bomb called the ‘international tribunal.’” Attitudes in Lebanon about the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) have changed significantly since its inception. This change is embodied by Walid Jumblatt, the leader of the Druze community: “A recent meeting between Jumblatt and Jeffrey Feltman, the U.S. assistant secretary for Near Eastern Affairs, did not go smoothly. ‘He told me I’m a national leader and should back the tribunal,’ Jumblatt said. ‘I said, no, I prefer to be a tribal leader, I’m downgrading! And I asked what the use of tribunal justice is if it leads to slaughter? It’s better to drop justice for stability.’” Jumblatt’s notion of stability over justice is echoed by Cohen. “Lebanese stability is precious and tenuous: It trumps justice delayed, flawed and foreign.”
Posted in Hezbollah, Lebanon, Political Parties, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Lebanon: Names of Indicted to be Withheld for “Several Months”
December 9th, 2010 by Jason
The Daily Star is reporting that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) will not announce indictments for “several months.” The article also reveals that “acting registrar Herman von Hebel said the budget had allocated funds to hold trial proceedings ‘toward the end of next year.’” Meanwhile, at a press conference Wednesday, Hezbollah MP Mohammad Raad described the STL as “rushed by the illegitimate cabinet of Fouad Siniora without being constitutionally ratified and placed within constitutional norms. The agreement was not signed by the president and it was not endorsed by Parliament as well.”
Posted in Hezbollah, Judiciary, Lebanon | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Crisis in Lebanon: Sectarian Politics, Regional Dynamics, and the U.N. Special Tribunal”
December 8th, 2010 by Jason
The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) held a panel discussion Wednesday titled “Crisis in Lebanon: Sectarian Politics, Regional Dynamics, and the U.N. Special Tribunal.” The speakers were Aram Nerguizian, a scholar with the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Randa Slim, an independent consultant and a board member of the International Institute for Sustained Dialogue and the Project on Middle East Democracy, Andrew J. Tabler, a Next Generation Fellow in the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, and Mona Yacoubian, head of the Lebanon Working Group at USIP and special adviser to USIP’s Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or click here for pdf.)
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Posted in Civil Society, DC Event Notes, Hezbollah, Israel, Judiciary, Lebanon, Military, Political Parties, Saudi Arabia, Sectarianism, Syria, US foreign policy, United Nations | Comment »
Lebanon: STL Indictments are “Precursor to Strife”
November 26th, 2010 by Jason
According to a report in the Daily Star, MP Hussein Moussawi, from Hibzullah’s Loyalty to Resistance parliamentary bloc, said that “the impending indictment by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) probing the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was a precursor to strife in the country.” Another MP, Walid Jumblatt (an influential leader in Lebanon’s Druze community), said the Tribunal “‘is aimed at destabilizing Lebanon rather than rendering justice,’” and that “‘[i]t is clear that this probe is being used for political purposes […] It is clear that the investigators are leaking information and are working for countries that have accounts to settle.’” Meanwhile, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri voiced support for the STL saying “‘We have to put dialogue ahead of tension. No strife will happen and no one will drag us into strife.’”
Posted in Civil Society, Hezbollah, Lebanon, Sectarianism | Comment »
Lebanon: Tensions Over the STL Continue to Build
November 9th, 2010 by Jason
Sami Moubayed writes at the Asia Times Online that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) has pushed Lebanon to the “verge of a major explosion.” According to Moubayed, Hezbollah has been attempting to block the tribunal by removing the “state financing of the United Nations-backed court in parliament, claiming it had become politicized.” Saudi Arabia, an ally of Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, has also been working to stall the STL using “its heavyweight influence in the world community to secure a postponement of the indictments until next March.” The legality of the STL has been questioned as well, an issue that recently reemerged when Italian judge Antonio Cassese, President of the STL, said that “in his capacity as a law professor and not as president of the tribunal, he acknowledges that the agreement to establish the STL was not concluded in compliance with the Lebanese Constitution,” but that the Lebanese government’s staffing of the tribunal means that it is nevertheless “bound by the agreement.”
Posted in Hezbollah, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia | Comment »
POMED Notes: “19th Annual Arab-US Policymakers Conference”
October 22nd, 2010 by Jason
The National Council on US-Arab Relations held its 19th annual Arab-US Policymakers Conference on Thursday. Opening remarks were made by Dr. John Duke Anthony, President and CEO of the National Council on US-Arab Relations and Rear Admiral Harold J. Bernsen, chairman of the Board of Directors at the National Council on US-Arab Relations. The first talk on the agenda was entitled “Arab-US Relations: Misadventures Past and Present,” and was given by The Honorable Chas W. Freeman Jr., former Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or go here for pdf.)
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Posted in DC Event Notes, Diplomacy, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Iraq, Islam and Democracy, Military, Neocons, Political Parties, Sectarianism, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: “The Ayatollahs’ Democracy: An Iranian Challenge”
October 14th, 2010 by Jason
The New America Foundation (NAF) held an event today marking the release of Hooman Majd’s new book, “The Ayatollahs’ Democracy: An Iranian Challenge.” Majd was introduced by Steve Clemons, Senior Fellow and Director of the American Strategy Program at NAF.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or go here for pdf)
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Posted in DC Event Notes, Elections, Freedom, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Islam and Democracy, Political Islam, Protests, Public Opinion, Reform, US foreign policy, sanctions | Comment »
Lebanon: Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop
October 7th, 2010 by Jason
The anticipated UN Special Tribunal on Lebanon indictments are stoking tensions in the Levant. Mona Yacoubian writes at the Middle East Channel that the situation “embodies all the complex challenges that confront Lebanon: Sunni-Shiite sectarian tensions, Hezbollah’s weapons, confessional power-sharing, the influence of regional players particularly Syria […] and broader proxy battles between the West and the Hezbollah/Syria/Iran alliance.” Yacoubian argues that, of all the concerns, the reaction of Hezbollah to the possible indictment of several of its members is the most worrying because it has the most to lose: “…Hezbollah’s culpability in the Hariri assassination will deal a fatal blow to Hezbollah’s professed raison d’etre of ‘resistance’ against Israel, instead reducing the organization to nothing more than a sectarian militia among many in Lebanese confessional politics.”
A main point of contention in Lebanon presently is the issue of “false witnesses”–those who initially testified that Syria was responsible for the assassination. “(M)inisters loyal to Berri’s Development and Liberation bloc announced on Wednesday they would suspend their participation in future Cabinet sessions if a session scheduled for Tuesday did not tackle the issue of false witnesses,” Nafez Qawas reports in the Daily Star. Several members of the Cabinet, including Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Shami, refused to participate in sessions until the subject was addressed and warned that not addressing the issue would lead to “civil strife.”
Posted in Civil Society, Hezbollah, Lebanon, Political Parties, Public Opinion, Sectarianism | Comment »
Lebanon: Hezbollah Still Ahead in Governance
September 15th, 2010 by Anna
Marlin Dick, a freelance journalist based in Lebanon, profiled the evolving nature of Hezbollah in a piece for The Middle East Report Online on Monday. He asserts that, among other successes, the group’s partial reconstruction of some of Beirut’s southern suburbs after the July 2006 War demonstrates that “the party remains ahead in the governance game compared to the woeful Lebanese state,” which remains fragmented and weak. Dick suggests that the party’s domestic reputation has only been improving in recent years, especially in areas where law and order are kept by the party, not the state. Dick describes Hezbollah’s social service provision to its Shiite base as “large-scale and usually efficient,” and adds that its reconstruction projects have been run with considerable professionalism. In contrast, Dick writes, the government has been widely accused of fund mismanagement, corruption, and overall incompetence. Although the party’s performance “has not been spotless in the eyes of its base,” its leaders have cultivated a “domestic political aura of seriousness and anti-corruption” and have engaged in domestic political debates about how to conduct elections, reform, and privatization among other issues.
Dick concludes: “For now, the party is benefiting from its expanded civil, political and state responsibilities [and] has managed to run its ministries without becoming tarred with accusations of corruption and squandering of resources.” He dismisses accusations that the party’s Islamist inclinations threaten the “Lebanese state and political order.”
Posted in Hezbollah, Lebanon, Political Islam, Political Parties, Public Opinion, Sectarianism | Comment »
Lebanon: Unclear U.S. Policy Toward Beirut
August 19th, 2010 by Farid
Writing in The National, Michael Young says that while the Lebanese government “reacted with bravado” after several members of the U.S. House of Representatives decided to cut off military assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), Hezbollah is continuously gaining influence in the country. Nevertheless, Young writes that the State Department has “declared that the US would not re-evaluate plans to supply the Lebanese army.” The administration is taking a risk by failing to acknowledge the wishes of Representative Howard Berman and the Foreign Affairs Committee, Young explains, since future allocations must be approved by the committee before being executed. The extant fear in the U.S. is that if the U.S. cuts military assistance to the LAF, Lebanon might seek assistance from elsewhere — primarily Iran and Syria. However, Young dismisses this concern as a misconception, stating, “The army is equipped mainly with American hardware and is therefore reliant on American ammunition and spare parts.” While some analysts argue that isolating Lebanon would only benefit Hezbollah, Young says that Prime Minister Saad Hariri “is partly responsible for this state of affairs,” adding that he has “paid lip service to the resistance” because of his “patrons in Saudi Arabia” and a lack of “clear American policy toward Lebanon.”
Posted in Hezbollah, Lebanon, Military, US foreign policy | Comment »
Lebanon: Leaving Democracy to the “Jackals”
August 11th, 2010 by Jennifer
Lee Smith writing in The Tablet mourns “the collapse of the March 14 movement, the return of Syrian hegemony to Lebanon, and Hezbollah’s de facto takeover of the state.” Smith suggests that the Obama administration’s policy of engagement with Syria has empowered Hezbollah and deepened the cracks in the pro-democracy March 14 government, while under George W. Bush’s policy of democracy promotion, the U.S. had previously “curtailed our relationship with Syrian security services and put more money into Lebanese political institutions.” However, Smith ultimately criticizes the American interest in institution-building abroad. Stating that “the premise of institution-building is that it is not the particular ideas and values of foreign cultures that determine how people in those places live; it is rather the absence of U.S.-style political institutions that have kept these foreigners mired in poverty,” Lee says that “this obsession with building political institutions betrays a parochial innocence.” In the case of Lebanon, he concludes, “the United States wanted to help the Lebanese build political institutions but were unwilling to do anything that might alter the balance of power,” adding that “we have abandoned the Lebanese to the jackals.”
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Lebanon: Justice vs. Stability
August 4th, 2010 by Jennifer
Rami G. Khouri writing in The Daily Star discusses the escalating tension in Lebanon over potential indictments against Hezbollah elements from the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) on the case of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s 2006 assassination. Khouri notes that “the fear is that if Hizbullah is linked with the murders it would use political or even military force to stop the process, perhaps by bringing the Lebanese government to a standstill.” He cites internal military initiatives by Hezbollah and another war with Israel as possible outcomes. Ultimately, Khouri says, the STL issue “pits two powerful forces against each other, with unpredictable results, but equally momentous consequences for Lebanon and entire Arab world”: the need to hold those who murdered the Lebanese premier to justice, versus the desire to maintain the economic and political stability Lebanon has enjoyed since May 2008. According to Khouri, “How to balance these two worthy imperatives – justice and stability – is Lebanon’s great challenge today,” a matter that is further complicated by the fact that regional actors rather than Lebanon itself will likely play the larger role in addressing this challenge. Khouri sounds a note of cautious optimism, however, concluding that “It will be difficult but not impossible to conclude a negotiated understanding that holds the killers accountable and sends a strong deterrent message to anyone contemplating such political murders in the future, while also preserving the calm that now prevails in Lebanon.”
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Lebanon: Political Movement on STL
August 2nd, 2010 by Jennifer
Nicholas Noe writing in Foreign Policy analyzes Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s recent comments regarding a potential indictment of members of his party by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). Noe argues that Hezbollah does not view the indictments themselves as a direct or serious threat, noting that since 2006, “the party has reached a fundamentally different — and more secure — position of political, diplomatic and military power, not to mention ideological coherence.” Noe argues that “even though many in the West, in Israel and even some in the Arab and Islamic spheres portray Hizbullah as constituted wholly in opposition to reason, democracy and morality (among other things), Hizbullah’s rise is founded, in part, on the discourse and practice of reason.”Given Hezbollah’s attempts to use “rhetorical and operational lengths to prove to various publics — including even the American public — that it is not a ‘crazy’ party,” Noe suggests that the STL decision could ultimately trigger destabilizing currents in Lebanon, since any indictment would damage Hezbollah’s legitimacy and potentially be seen by the party as “a sideshow emboldening and quickening Hizbullah’s enemies” toward a larger issue: an impending sectarian war.
Meanwhile, Omayma Abdel-Latif writing in Al-Ahram Weekly also discusses emerging political alignments on the STL issue and observes the potential for the indictments to send Lebanon into an internal political crisis. Abdel-Latif highlights the flurry of regional diplomatic activity generated by Nasrallah’s statements, noting that Saudi King Abdullah has undertaken a 4-day tour of meetings with Arab leaders– including Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, the emir of Qatar, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and Lebanese President Michel Suleiman –in order to “discuss damage limitation strategies should leaks of the STL’s finding prove true.” He explains that the rumors of Hezbollah indictments have sparked concern among some analysts that “the tribunal is being used to settle political scores and advance the agenda of the Western- backed 14 March alliance.” According to Abdel-Latif, one solution under consideration at the summit of Arab leaders is urging the postponement of the indictment until late this year, but he notes that “any delay would put off the crisis rather than resolve it.” He cites Lebanese Industry Minister Mohamed Al-Safadi, who has argued that the situation calls for strong leadership from the top, saying: “‘[Prime Minister Saad] Al-Hariri has the bigger role to play in ending this crisis.’”
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Lebanon: A Change in Course for Regional Stability?
July 30th, 2010 by Jennifer
Elias Muhanna writing at his blog Qifa Nabki suggests that the upcoming summit in Beirut on the issue of the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL)—which will be attended by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Saudi King Abdullah—indicates a shift in the March 14 coalition and Saudi Arabia’s approach toward Hezbollah, as well as toward regional actors backing Hezbollah, such as Syria and Iran. In light of recent comments by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that the STL may issue an indictment against some elements of the organization, Muhanna argues that such a verdict “could thrust Lebanon into complete political paralysis and possible sectarian violence,” noting that Hezbollah may decide to withdraw its members from Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri’s cabinet if pressured and cripple the government, as it did in late 2006. Two or three years ago, Muhanna says, Hezbollah’s opponents “would have been very happy to use the indictments to try to push Hizbullah into a corner, furthering pressuring its regional sponsors in Damascus and Tehran”; the high-level meeting in Beirut reveals “a much more cautious policy of containment which recognizes the valuable political capital that may soon be delivered via an STL indictment against Hizbullah, but which also recognizes the folly of bearing down too hard on the Shiite party.”
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Lebanon: No Interference in the STL
July 28th, 2010 by Jennifer
Parties in the March 14 Alliance yesterday rejected Hezbollah’s call to form a committee to investigate alleged false witnesses in the probe into former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s assassination, following controversial remarks by Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah condemning the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). Future Movement MPs argued that the Lebanese national government should not interfere with the work of the STL, an independent, UN-backed tribunal. Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea criticized the allegations, asking, “Who said there are any false witnesses?”, and commenting that Hezbollah “did not back its claims with any judicial authorities or tribunal.” Meanwhile, Minister of State Adnan al-Sayyed Hussein said that political parties were in talks to form a ministerial committee to follow up on the STL, and also suggested that the tribunal could be discussed at the August 19 meeting of the National Dialogue committee. Stating that the STL issue “is important and directly related to a national defense strategy because it relates to national security, which is not restricted only to facing Israel but also security threats, terrorism and preserving national unity,” Hussein called for all political parties– including Hezbollah –to fulfill their responsibility of ensuring Lebanese stability and to engage in “rational rhetoric away from tensions and accusations of treason.”
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Lebanon: The Future of Hezbollah
July 27th, 2010 by Farid
According to Paul Salem’s recent commentary at Project Syndicate, Hezbollah’s fate “has never looked more uncertain.” While Israel is growing less patient with Iran’s nuclear ambitions, both Israel and Hezbollah are preparing for a potential proxy war, Salem explains. Nevertheless, Hezbollah faces the task of justifying its military actions to the Lebanese public, as it has led the country into two “ruinous wars in the span of five years.” In addition, “Syria might be asked by the Arab countries and the international community to take greater responsibility in Lebanon,” Salem predicts. However, due to Hezbollah’s popularity among Shi’a Muslims in Lebanon, Salem argues that it has an opportunity to continue its role as an influential political party, but to do so it would have to separate itself from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Salem also mentions that Daniel Bellemare, prosecutor for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, “might conclude his investigation and issue indictments in the fall” against five members of Hezbollah for their role in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. However, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has rejected the indictments, calling the tribunal “part of an Israeli plot to undermine the Islamic resistance in Lebanon” and alleging that it “has no credibility.” Salem suggests that though Hezbollah’s future may appear bleak, the party “is not likely to relinquish its power without a fight.”
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Lebanon: What Does Fadlallah’s Death Mean for Iran?
July 9th, 2010 by Farid
According to an interesting new op-ed by David Schenker in The Christian Science Monitor, Grand Ayatollah Seyyed Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah’s passing will “pave” the way for increasing Iranian influence in Lebanon, and a change in Islamic ideology will take place in on the ground. With Fadlallah gone, there remain very few contrasting views against the Iranian-supported Hezbollah militia, implying that a more militant ideology of Islam will gain momentum in Lebanon, Schenker explains. “With Fadlallah gone, and Sistani nearly 81, Iran and Hezbollah hope to nudge Lebanon’s Shi’a toward Tehran and Khamenei,” which means that U.S. influence in the region will “erode,” he says. Hezbollah is currently pushing for Sheikh Afaf Nabulsi to fill Fadlallah’s shoes, but even if no one emerges as his incumbent, Schenker argues that Tehran will still gain significant political, religious, and ideological influence within the Lebanese Shi’a population. Schenker also makes the assessment that Iranians have been “cultivating Muqtada al-Sadr” in Iraq and argues that the same thing is likely to take place in Lebanon. However, as Schenker himself notes, it is quite “ironic, though, that Fadlallah – a man who Washington labeled a terrorist in 1995 – stood as the last bulwark against near total Iranian hegemony in Lebanon.”
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Hariri: Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah’s Death Removes a “Voice of Moderation”
July 6th, 2010 by Farid
Grand Ayatollah Sayyed Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah, a Lebanese Shi’a cleric who was “known for his moderate social views,” died in a Lebanese hospital on Sunday. Ayatollah Fadlallah, regarded as the “father and guide” by Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, represented the “brains” behind the opposition to the Israeli occupation of Palestine, according to Ayatollah Abdullah al-Ghurayfi.
In a official eulogy in mourning of his passing, Prime Minister Saad Hariri said that “he represented a voice of moderation and an advocate of unity among the Lebanese in particular and Muslims in general.”
Born in Najaf, Iraq, Ayatollah Fadlallah still had significant ties to Iraq’s Shi’a population, and he also co-founded President Nouri al-Maliki’s Iraqi Dawa Party. According to The Daily Star, followers of Ayatollah Fadlallah “revered him for his moderate social views, openness and pragmatism. Fadlallah issued religious edicts forbidding female circumcision and saying women could hit abusive husbands,” and he also condemned the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center.
While Ayatollah Fadlallah was a spiritual leader of the Hezbollah party, he nevertheless moved beyond party identification and even criticized the group on occasion. As Michael Totten describes in his commentary, Ayatollah Fadallah was a supporter of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, but also rejected the concept of Velayat-e-Faqhi. Nonetheless, Totten also emphasizes Ayatollah Fadlallah’s “theological justification for suicide bombing” and his support for the hostage-taking in Lebanon in the 1980s. Considering Fadlallah’s shortcomings, Totten calls on CNN’s senior editor of Mideast Affairs, Octavia Nasr, to give the public an explanation for her recent tweet that said, “sad to hear of the passing of Sayyed Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah. One of Hezbollah’s giants I respect a lot.”
Regardless of the controversy over his legacy, Ayatollah Fadlallah has certainly played a major role in the Shi’a community in the Middle East.
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Lebanon: Disentangling Hezbollah from Shi’a Communities
May 27th, 2010 by Josh
Over at the Middle East Channel, Randa Slim of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund offers a fresh perspective on the deeply entrenched relationship between Hezbollah and Lebanese communities. Dismissing the utility of either internal or external military force as a means to disarm the popular Shi’a movement, Slim presents an alternative rooted in an “intra-Lebanese process of political dialogue.” Her recommendation also includes a prominent role for the international community, one that eschews its traditional projection of force in favor of new policies intended to create the “political, security and economic incentives and atmosphere in Lebanon and in the region that help promote and support disarmament.” All actors must reorient their focus away from the “Iranian provider” and toward the “Lebanese consumer,” meaning that the key to marginalizing Hezbollah’s military capacity lies in the ability to create upward pressure from the Shi’a community to demand change. According to Slim, cultivating such an environment requires an approach with four components:
- Maintaining U.S. military support of the Lebanese army: Presenting the Lebanese Armed Forces as a “strong and capable institution” would engender confidence and encourage the Shi’a community to move away from Hezbollah as its source of protection.
- The National Dialogue led by Lebanon’s President Michel Suleiman, which includes Hezbollah and other political parties, must formulate and agree on a national defense strategy.
- The Lebanese government must initiate a program of economic empowerment for underprivileged Shi’a communities
- Working toward an Arab-Israeli comprehensive peace in order to assuage the ever-present concern of a violent confrontation with Israel
“Only pressure from its Shi’a constituency will change Hezbollah’s cost-benefit calculations,” Slim says. “This pressure will come only after Lebanon’s Shi’a believe that the Lebanese state institutions are the best guarantors of their economic and physical security.”
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