Iraq: Government Formation Delayed, Sadrists Make Gains
December 20th, 2010 by Jason
After initial reports that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki would announce his cabinet today, speaker of the parliament Osama al-Nujaifi told reporters that the parliament would not meet to discuss cabinet appointments. There have also been reports that the prime minister would announce half of his cabinet posts today, with the rest to be announced later. Maliki has until December 25 to unveil his government which will then be subject to parliamentary approval. An editorial in Saturday’s The Wall Street Journal warned that “the deal could fall apart,” while an editorial in today’s The Daily Star argues “if Iraq’s lawmakers cannot take into account the needs of their populace - irrespective of race or creed - regression will surely follow.”
Meanwhile, Jack Healy writes in The New York Times that the Sadrist Movement, led by Muqtada al-Sadr, is “tracing a path mapped out by militant groups like Hezbollah or Hamas, which built popular support by augmenting their armed wings with social and political groups that ran schools and hospitals and handed out jobs.” Healy also reports that the group is vying for the governorship of Maysan province.
Update: P.M. Maliki appeared with Speaker Nujaifi at a press conference Monday evening in Baghdad to announce his list of cabinet officials according to the Associated Press. However, “nearly one-third of the nominees were only acting ministers, an attempt to buy time to work out disagreements with a key part of al-Maliki’s coalition — the hardline Shiite faction loyal to anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.”
Posted in Iraq, Islamist movements, Political Parties, Sectarianism | Comment »
Iran: A Divided Nation
December 17th, 2010 by Jason
In two new pieces, Mehdi Khalaji and Abbas Milani explore cultural and political divisions in Iran. Khalaji focuses on the growing split between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini. “Tension between the president and the Supreme Leader is built into the Islamic Republic’s core,” Khalaji writes, because the Supreme Leader is chosen, while the President “emerges from an electoral process.” This natural tension has caused conflict between Khameini and the two previous presidents, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami. Khalaji concludes that “[t]he history of the Islamic Republic indicates that the power struggle between the Supreme Leader and the president never abates. It also suggests that the Supreme Leader will prove to be stronger.”
Milani takes a sociohistorical view of the divided Iranian identity. Looking back over the country’s history, Milani sees “a bifurcated, tormented, even schizoid cultural identity: pre-Islamic, Persian-Zoroastrian elements battling with forces and values of an Arab Islamic culture.” Milani goes on to detail the the struggle between the two identities, which conflict through art, film, language, and the meaning of modernity. Post-1979 Iran can be seen through this lens of bifurcation. Ayatollah Khomeini advocated for a Shi’ism that rejected modernity (i.e. the Shah and his insistence on a Persian national identity) and established a strong state that clashes with calls for greater democratization from many citizens. “[A] critical look at the past shows the bleak future of Khamenei and other champions of despotism. Violence can only delay but not destroy the rights of man in a nation that has embraced the cultural ethos of modernity.”
Posted in Civil Society, Iran, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Political Islam | Comment »
Instability Ahead for Authoritarian Regimes in Egypt and Saudi Arabia
December 14th, 2010 by Evan
In a recent piece, Daniel Brumberg argues that Egypt’s rigged parliamentary elections threaten to destabilize the country. “When there is no honest mechanism by which citizens can create a moral, ideological and/or institutional connection to the state, society will go in its own direction. This is a prescription for mass apathy, out of which mass resentment could suddenly explode, especially during moments of crisis.” Meanwhile, John Bradley has a new article on the “looming” succession crises in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Despite their historical and rhetorical differences, these two powerful Arab states “increasingly resemble each other…in terms of populist Islamist fervor and limited political representation,” Bradley writes.
Posted in Egypt, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Saudi Arabia | Comment »
Egypt: NPD Ups Pressure on Muslim Brotherhood
November 26th, 2010 by Evan
On Wednesday, Egypt’s ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) filed a report with the Office of the Prosecutor General calling on it to investigate 52 “members of an illegal organization” running as independent candidates for parliament. The NDP’s complaint appears to refer to candidates associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, which while technically illegal in Egypt, openly participates in politics. The statement suggests that some within the NDP “could be trying to shift toward treating the Muslim Brotherhood like a truly illegal organization, rather than its long-held ‘illegal but tolerated’ status,” POMED’s executive director Stephen McInerney said. In a separate statement to reporters Thursday, NDP spokesman Ali El Din Hilal said “We will not accept the transformation of Egypt into a religious state … We want a system based on citizenship, not on religion.” The Egyptian government has long allowed the Muslim Brotherhood to operate and given tacit approval for its candidates to participate in elections as independents.
The Christian Science Monitor’s Dan Murphy adds that the environment for the upcoming election is “markedly different from the one five years ago.” The NDP has given the Brotherhood much less freedom to campaign: “Popular Brotherhood MPs have been dogged by police details everywhere they go, supporters have been beaten at campaign events, and the leader of their bloc in parliament, Mohammad al-Katatni, says he was attacked by a mob while driving home earlier this week,” Murphy writes.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Islamist movements, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
Egypt: Will Parliamentary Elections Influence the 2011 Presidential Race?
November 24th, 2010 by Evan
Issandr El Amrani recently authored a piece for the International Relations and Security Network’s (ISN) Insights series on the process, outcome, and potential effect of the upcoming Egyptian parliamentary elections. The constitutional amendments passed in 2007, voter apathy, and the weakness of Egyptian opposition parties mean that there is “no great suspense about the outcome,” El Amrani writes. The real significance of the elections, according to El Amrani, will be their effect on the 2011 Egyptian presidential election: “The regime may desire as tame a parliament as possible during this transition, and seats at the People’s Assembly will afford parties and individuals some room for negotiation during this delicate time […] the presence of strong opposition voices inside and outside formal structures like parliament, even if limited, could influence the direction of the new regime and force it to take into account the growing number of voices seeking real change.”
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Islamist movements, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
Egypt: Widespread Arrests Stifle Campaigns
November 22nd, 2010 by Evan
Over 1,200 Muslim Brotherhood members, including eight nominees for the upcoming election, were arrested Friday and Saturday following a series of violent clashes with police at campaign rallies across the country. Representatives of the Brotherhood reported members were detained in 22 provinces, with the largest number of arrests occurring in Sharqiya and Alexandria. “The regime is sending a message that there will be no election,” said Saad el-Katatni, the head of the Muslim Brotherhood parliamentary bloc. In a new article for Al Jazeera, Evan Hill describes challenges facing the Brotherhood and the organization’s tenuous relations with proponents of democracy in the West, while Amro Hassan and Jeffrey Fleishman document internal rifts between conservatives and reformists and the effect of increased government pressure on the organization.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Human Rights, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Egypt’s Political Future: The Parliamentary Elections and Beyond”
November 18th, 2010 by Jason
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace held an event on Thursday titled “Egypt’s Political Future: The Parliamentary Elections and Beyond.” The speakers for the event were Michele Dunne, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment and editor of the online journal, the Arab Reform Bulletin, and Amr Hamzawy, research director and senior associate at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. The discussion was moderated by Jennifer Windsor, the associate dean for Programs and Studies at the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or click here for pdf)
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Posted in Civil Society, DC Event Notes, Egypt, Elections, Freedom, Islamist movements, Muslim Brotherhood, NGOs, Political Parties, Reform, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: “A Changing Middle East: Iran, Turkey, and Prospects for Peace”
November 16th, 2010 by Jason
On Monday evening, as part of the 2010 Foreign Policy Initiative Forum, a panel discussion was held titled “A Changing Middle East: Iran, Turkey, and Prospects for Peace.” The discussants were Elliot Abrams, of the Council on Foreign Relations, Ambassador Eric Edelman, of the Foreign Policy Initiative and Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, and Reuel Gerecht of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The discussion was moderated by Lee Smith of the Weekly Standard.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or click here for pdf.)
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Posted in DC Event Notes, Freedom, Human Rights, Iran, Islamist movements, Israel, Middle Eastern Media, Palestine, Political Parties, Reform, Turkey, US foreign policy | Comment »
Egypt: “State-Level” Reforms to Enhance Religious Freedom are Needed
November 10th, 2010 by Anna
Samuel Tadros of the Egyptian Union of Liberal Youth contends in a Heritage Foundation paper that “[t]he Egyptian government has played a major role in creating and maintaining a religiously intolerant environment in Egypt that is hostile to non-Muslims and any Muslims who deviate from government-endorsed religious norms and traditions.” Emphasizing Egypt’s strategic importance to the U.S., Tadros adds that this environment restricts independent thinking and calls on the U.S. government to “use every available avenue to encourage the Egyptian government to enact and enforce laws that protect the religious freedom of all Egyptians.” He calls on the Obama administration to fund organizations working on religious freedom issues in Egypt, promote religious tolerance through diplomatic tools, and investigate cases of religious intolerance. He also calls on Egypt to protect groups’ rights to build places of worship and criminalize attacks on religious minorities, among other reforms. Given the “authoritarian nature of the Egyptian regime,” he concludes, “[a]ny attempt to deal with religious freedom issues in Egypt must therefore begin at the state level.”
Posted in Egypt, Freedom, Islamist movements, Reform, US foreign policy | Comment »
Can Christian Democracy Movements Provide Lessons for Islamist Politics?
November 5th, 2010 by Anna
In an article for the Boston Review, Jan-Werner Muller of Princeton University details the history of the Christian democratic movement and asks whether “the historical analogy between Christian and potential Muslim democracy…perhaps suggest[s] promising alternatives to the authoritarian rule that dominates the Middle East.” He asserts that “institutional structures are what matters, not political ideas or programs” – as such, he concludes that “calls for liberalizing Islam and arcane disputes about the Qur’an’s compatibility with democracy are largely beside the point. Programmatic moderation, if it happens at all, will be a result of democratic political practice, not its precondition.” In the case of Christian Democracy, Muller writes, leaders drew in voters by basing their platforms on a particular body of thought, while simultaneously “reassuring nonbelievers that those of faith had accepted pluralism.” By delicately balancing various principles, Christian Democrats made themselves appealing to both Christians and non-Christians. Whether this is possible for Islamist politicians, Muller writes, remains unclear. He points out that “the political mobilization of believers does not necessarily result in a one-to-one translation of private religious identities into public political identities,” and that identities are reconstructed in pluralist arenas where compromise is key. Thus, he concludes, “blanket condemnations of Islam as incompatible with Democracy overlook the fact that religious doctrines do not strictly determine politics.”
Posted in Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Political Islam | Comment »
Palestine: Is the PA Creating a Security State?
October 19th, 2010 by Jason
Matt Duss, writing at Foreign Policy’s Middle East Channel, asks if a “focus on security at the expense of democracy does generate bad consequences […] why are we doing it again in Palestine?” As Duss explains, the West’s confidence in Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad has become pervasive and possibly dangerous. Fayyad assumed power under a “state of emergency” that Duss says “resembles Egypt’s,” which brings the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) legitimacy into question. Duss also reports that the government is allowing “Salafi prayer leaders” into the West Bank, as long as they “direct their rhetorical fire away from the PA and Abbas’ Fatah Party, and toward Fatah’s political opponents, primarily Hamas.” Duss explains the historical parallels between this current development and the rise of Hamas, while noting that peaceful political activity is being suppressed by the PA: “…activists have now found that any association with a disfavored political orientation is enough to make them targets of repression.” Duss concludes that “Political freedom is not a peripheral concern in Palestine — it is central to the U.S. goal of a functioning, viable, and democratic Palestinian state at peace with Israel. The Obama administration must not allow itself, in the interest of an illusive stability, to keep kicking the can down the road, and oversee the creation of yet another security state in the Middle East.”
Posted in Foreign Aid, Freedom, Hamas, Islamist movements, Palestine, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Between Religion and Politics”
September 29th, 2010 by Jason
An event was held today at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace celebrating the release of the book “Between Religion and Politics”, coauthored by Amr Hamzawy and Nathan Brown. Marwan Muasher acted as the moderator for the event, where the authors explained the process they utilized in the researching of the book and explored, in depth, the case studies of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or click here for pdf.)
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Posted in Civil Society, DC Event Notes, Egypt, Elections, Freedom, Hamas, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Muslim Brotherhood, Palestine, Political Islam, Public Opinion, Reform | Comment »
Marwan Muasher on Political Stagnation in the Middle East
September 28th, 2010 by Evan
In a new interview, Carnegie Endowment Vice President for Studies
Marwan Muasher argues that the Arab world is stagnating because of a lack of democratic reform: “There is not a single Arab country today that can be seen as adopting a serious and sustained political reform process. And this is really leaving the Arab world behind almost everybody else.” Power in the region is divided between entrenched regimes and Islamist opposition movements, Muasher explains, neither of which can effectively bring peace and stability. According to Muasher, three elements are necessary for the success of democratic reforms in the Arab world: First, the development of an active middle class; second, greater freedom for civil society; and third, the emergence of political parties that offer a real alternative to both the establishment and the Islamist opposition.
Posted in Civil Society, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Political Parties | Comment »
Egypt: Brotherhood is “Waiting Until the Time is Right”
September 27th, 2010 by Anna
In a brief piece for Newsweek, R.M. Schneiderman and Nausheen Husain assert that the Muslim Brotherhood may be willing to “lose this vote” (in November) in order to build up influence over the long term. They cite Khaled Fahmy, a Middle East history professor at the American University in Cairo, who has pointed out that although “an election loss leaves the Brotherhood with less influence on who succeeds Mubarak in 2012,” the party is not necessarily focused on the near term. At the moment, the authors contend, the Brotherhood is prioritizing the “spread [of] its religious ministry and its network of social services” over winning many seats in parliament during the upcoming elections. Schneiderman and Husain conclude that the group is building its base and “waiting until the time is right to mount a significant challenge” to the Mubarak government.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Islamist movements, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Parties | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Egypt at the Tipping Point?”
September 17th, 2010 by Anna
On Friday, David Ottaway gave a talk at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars titled “Egypt at the Tipping Point?” Ottaway – who is a senior scholar at the Wilson Center and the former Bureau Chief for the Washington Post in Cairo – discussed the findings from his recent paper, published in the Wilson Center Middle East Program’s Summer 2010 Occasional Paper Series. The talk was introduced and moderated by Haleh Esfandiari, the director of the Wilson Center’s Middle East Program.
(To read the full event summary, continue below. Or, click here to read the pdf.)
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Posted in DC Event Notes, Democracy Promotion, Egypt, Elections, Events, Freedom, Human Rights, Islamist movements, Journalism, Middle Eastern Media, Military, Muslim Brotherhood, NGOs, Political Parties, Protests, Public Opinion, Reform, US foreign policy | Comment »
Can Islamism Be Democratic?
September 15th, 2010 by Jason
In an Atlantic article titled “When Islamism is Liberal-Democratic”, Max Fisher notes that the recent passing of a constitutional referendum in Turkey is being described in some quarters as a turn away from the country’s secular past. He asserts that it is actually a move towards liberal democracy: “Islamic rule and liberal democracy, far from mutually exclusive in the Middle East, can go hand-in-hand.” He goes on to describe Middle Eastern Islamic movements as essentially “populist” and not all that different from populist movements in the U.S. or elsewhere. As Fisher points out, Islamic governments are often more representative of the populace than secular dictatorships, promoting cooperation and trust between the government and the people. The dictatorships, which have often been supported by the U.S. in the past, often cause “…more harm than good.” He concludes by saying,” We might prefer that all governments be secular liberal democracies like our own. But if we must choose between an Islamic democracy or a secular autocracy, regional history suggests we should prefer the former every time.”
Posted in Civil Society, Democracy Promotion, Freedom, Iran, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Public Opinion, Secularism, Turkey | Comment »
Afghanistan: Time to Negotiate With the Taliban?
September 15th, 2010 by Jason
With parliamentary elections three days away and the beginning of a major offensive outside of Kandahar, worries about the coalition’s mission in Afghanistan are growing. Gilles Dorronsoro spotlights the deteriorating security condition in the country: “While it is still safe in Kabul, you can feel the Taliban tightening its hold around the capital.[…] The Taliban have a great deal of influence, but even where they haven’t established control, the Afghan government doesn’t enjoy any support.” Even NGOs are beginning to acknowledge the Taliban’s influence in the country: “The NGOs negotiate directly with Taliban leaders to ensure access to the Afghan people and carry out their programs. The process has become so formalized that international groups can now expect to receive a paper that is stamped and sealed by the Taliban outlining the permissions granted.” Dorronsoro concludes that it is time to begin negotiating with the Taliban and possibly bring them into a new coalition government, “…with assurances that Al Qaeda will not operate in Afghanistan again…”as part of the agreement.
Posted in Afghanistan, Elections, Islamist movements, Military, NGOs, Taliban, US foreign policy, al-Qaeda | Comment »
POMED Notes: New America Foundation “A New Way Forward? Rethinking U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan”
September 8th, 2010 by Jason
The New America Foundation held a panel discussion today to introduce the Afghanistan Study Group’s paper, “A New Way Forward: Rethinking U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan”. (PDF here) The panel members were all members of the study group, although not all of them signed the finished product making for an interesting discussion. The panel included Paul Pillar (Director of Graduate Studies, Center for Peace and Security Studies, Georgetown University and former intelligence officer), Matthew Hoh (Former Foreign Service Officer and Marine, Director, Afghanistan Study Group), Steve Coll (President of the New America Foundation), Brian Katulis (Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress), Charles Kupchan (Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, Professor of International Affairs, Georgetown University,Author, How Enemies Become Friends), Darcy Burner (Director, American Progressive Caucus Policy Foundation), Robert Pape (Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago Director, Chicago Project on Suicide Terrorism Author, Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism), and the event was moderated by Steve Clemons (Director, American Strategy Program, New America Foundation Publisher, The Washington Note).
(Continue below the fold for full notes or click here for PDF)
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Posted in Afghanistan, Civil Society, DC Event Notes, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Human Rights, Islamist movements, Military, NGOs, Pakistan, Sectarianism, Taliban, US foreign policy | Comment »
Yemen: Ceasefire in the North and Military v. Develop Aid
September 2nd, 2010 by Jason
Brian O’Neill at Always Judged Guilty brings to our attention two recent articles in the Atlantic and the Wall Street Journal on developments in Yemen. The Atlantic article deals with the recent ceasefire between the Yemeni government and Houthi rebels in the north of the country. As O’Neill points out, “…the divisions are not cut-and-dried. This doesn’t fit the normal Sunni-Shi’ite clash we like to read about.” The WSJ article describes a growing gap between military assistance and civilian development assistance that one U.S. official describes as, “… tend(ing) to encourage a negative perspective in Yemen that all we care about is U.S. security.”O’Neill backs up this concern: “This seems on the face to be exactly what many are warning against- pumping in a flood of money to enhance the security services while leaving the massive underpinning structural issues untouched.” He goes on to define the “frustrating paradox of nation-building policies” as, “you can’t build a well while being shot, and the shooting won’t stop until there’s a well.”
On a more hopeful note, the National Democratic Institute has an article out describing their program to bring Yemeni youth together to teach them conflict resolution techniques. According to NDI, “With almost half of Yemen’s population under age 15 and another one-third aged 15 to 29, a significant percentage of the population is growing acclimated to violence as the primary means to address or resolve conflict.” The program focuses specifically the resolution of tribal conflicts and has already seen some success at the local level.
Posted in Civil Society, Islamist movements, Military, NGOs, Yemen, al-Qaeda | Comment »
POMED Notes: Press Conference “Without a Stable and Democratic Egypt, the Future of a Two State Solution is in Jeopardy”
September 1st, 2010 by Jason
Today at the National Press Club, a press conference was held to discuss the Mubarak government’s prominent role in the upcoming negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Hosted by The Coalition of Egyptian Organizations and the Egyptian Association for Change-USA and moderated by Tarek Khalil, the event featured a panel of Egyptian activists.
For full notes continue below the fold or click here for PDF
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Posted in Civil Society, DC Event Notes, Egypt, Elections, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Human Rights, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Mideast Peace Plan, Political Islam, Protests, Reform | Comment »
