BBC BLOGS - Fergus's Medical Files

Flu - your questions answered

Fergus Walsh | 18:20 UK time, Friday, 14 January 2011

Comments (44)

Thanks to all of you who sent in questions about flu which I do my best to answer below:

Steve, from Birmingham, writes:

'Where can I get my children vaccinated? They are not in the "at risk" group and the chemists that have been offering vaccinations won't vaccinate under 18's.'

Only those in at-risk groups are eligible for flu jabs from their GP. Pharmacies will give the jab to healthy adults for around £13-15, if they have stocks remaining, but most will not give flu jabs to children as this requires extra training. You could get the vaccine from a private GP or clinic. I have read a report of parents being charged nearly £80 by a clinic for giving a vaccine to a young child.

Hannah, from Skipton, in North Yorkshire, writes:

'My Three-year-old daughter had the swine flu vaccine last year when it was available to all under-fives (she has no underlying health problems). Will last year's vaccine protect her from this season's outbreak?'

No-one knows for certain what level or duration of protection is provided by last year's pandemic H1N1 vaccine. Flu strains undergo minute changes over the years - something known as "antigenic drift" which is why the vaccine is tweaked every season. That's why those in at-risk groups are offered a new jab every autumn.

Having said all that, the H1N1 swine flu virus does not seem to have altered very much since it hit the headlines in Mexico in early 2009. So being vaccinated last year is likely to offer a good level of continuing protection. But it will not guarantee it. The flu vaccine is not 100% effective. Of 34 deaths for which we have information this winter, one person had received the monovalent (single strain) pandemic H1N1 vaccine last year.

Wendy in Burton-Upon-Trent, Staffordshire, writes:

'In our case both my husband, a diabetic, and myself, 20 weeks pregnant are obviously in "at risk" groups. Although I have two prescriptions from my GP for the influenza vaccine I have to source it myself as they have no stocks and haven't since December. During the last fortnight I have tried many, many places to source the vaccine without success - now it has peaked should I just give up?'

This situation should have changed. Yesterday, the head of immunisation at the Department of Health, Professor David Salisbury, said there was no reason why anyone in an at-risk group should be turned away.

This is because the government has now opened its stockpile of H1N1 pandemic vaccine. There are nearly 13 million doses available. As of yesterday, 400 orders had been submitted and nearly 200,000 doses of vaccine dispatched. So it is worth contacting your GP again to check if they have doses available. If they don't, ask them politely to order some - the Department of Health says it is not charging GPs for the jabs.

If you are in an at-risk group, you should not simply hope for the best. We cannot be sure when the outbreak will peak and it is likely to have a long "tail" - flu viruses will continue to circulate for many weeks to come. So it is best to be protected.

Sue, from the Midlands, asks:

'Why are older people, around my age of 62 not becoming infected with swine flu in the same numbers as younger people? Is it because we have immunity from succumbing to earlier flu epidemics and how similar to H1N1 would these earlier strains have to be for you to build up resistance to the current H1N1?'

The H1N1 virus - or swine flu - is similar to a strain that was circulating between 1918-1957. This was replaced by another strain of flu with a different genetic make-up (H2N2) during the pandemic of 1957. So people born before 1957 seem to have developed some level of immunity from the current swine flu strain.

Having said that, it is no guarantee that elderly people won't fall ill. There have been 16 flu-related deaths among the 65+ age group this winter, out of a population of around 10 million. That number will be an underestimate because it will simply include those who have been tested for flu. Some of the deaths are likely to have been due to other strains of flu that are circulating. So annual immunisation for all older people is a wise move.

Andrew, from Newcastle, asks:

'How do this year's flu death figures compare with each of the last five years? Are they steady, increasing or decreasing?'

The first year of H1N1 swine flu- up to April 2010 - saw nearly 500 confirmed deaths throughout the UK. In each case the person who died tested positive for the virus. But there will have been more deaths where the virus will not have been identified. Since October there have been 112 confirmed deaths from flu.

2009 was the first year that flu deaths were collected in such a precise manner. In previous years the Office for National Statistics worked out the excess of deaths over the winter period during a flu outbreak and compared them to similar periods where there was no flu about. This resulted in a rough estimate of 8,000 flu-related deaths each winter, with 20,000 or more deaths during epidemics. In 1989-90 there are estimates that flu was responsible for 25,000 deaths. But we can't directly compare this winter's figures with years gone by.

Most of the deaths prior to April 2009 were among the frail elderly. The difference, since the advent of swine flu, is that the virus mostly affects those under 65 with people in middle age accounting for the biggest proportion of serious illness. But other flu stains are circulating - H3N2 and Flu B - and these can also cause serious illness especially among the elderly.

What are your chances of dying of flu?

Fergus Walsh | 19:25 UK time, Thursday, 13 January 2011

Comments (72)

What are your chances of dying of flu this winter? It's a pertinent question given the apparent doubling of the confirmed deaths since October. Figures from the Health Protection Agency reveal that, across the UK, flu-related deaths rose from 50 to 112.

So are the chances of dying one in 10,000 or 1 in 100,000? Neither is remotely close.

Here's why: We've been told the ages of 101 of those who died.

Six were 0-4 years old; nine were 5-14; 34 were aged 15-44; 36 were 45-64 and 16 were 65 and over.

Now if we look at the number of deaths per head of population, the highest is among those in middle age. One in 440,000 people aged 45-64 have died. Among the under-fives it is one in 630,000 - the same rate as those 65 and over.

I hope that reassures people who have been alarmed by swine flu stories in the media.

So does this mean we do not need to be concerned about flu? No it does not. If you have a chronic respiratory problem and are pregnant, then your risks from - especially swine flu - will be a lot higher than those listed above. That is why anyone in an at-risk group should be immunised.

In any case, statistics are a dangerous thing, so I would urge caution. The real death rate will be higher because it doesn't include age data on 11 people AND because the HPA admit that their figures will underestimate the number of deaths. This is because some people who die of other causes will probably have had flu and this will have played a part in their deaths but will not have been tested for.

Nonetheless if you are an otherwise healthy person then your chances of dying from flu are very small indeed. There have been deaths among those without previous conditions, such as the case of Lana Ameen. But these are rare.

I thought it worth giving you that context because in the wake of the Lana Ameen case, there will be a lot of concerned parents with healthy children desperate to get their children immunised. Her parents appealed yesterday for all healthy children to be allowed a flu jab but the Department of Health said that it was best to focus on those most vulnerable to the virus.

So when will the worst be over?

Cases of influenza-like illness have risen sharply in Northern Ireland, and slightly in England and Wales. But there are other indicators which suggest that outbreak will peak soon.

The number of people in critical care in England has fallen to 661 from 783 last week. The number of flu-related calls to NHS Direct has also fallen.

The Department of Health has distributed 200,000 doses of the pandemic H1N1 vaccine to GPs in England and Wales and have said that no-one who is eligible for the jab should be refused it.

Vaccinate all children says mother of girl killed by swine flu

Fergus Walsh | 21:25 UK time, Wednesday, 12 January 2011

Comments (137)

The heart-rending story of three-year-old Lana Ameen has once again raised the issue of whether flu jabs should be available for healthy under-fives.

She fell ill with swine flu on Christmas Eve and died of multiple organ failure in Alder Hey Hospital, Liverpool, on Boxing Day. She had no previous health issues.

Her parents, a doctor and a nurse, released photos of her in intensive care, just hours before her death, in a bid to persuade ministers to change the policy on vaccination to allow all children to be immunised.

Her mother Gemma, who is 12 weeks pregnant, said: "I don't know how they can say my child wasn't worth having a few pounds worth of vaccine which could have saved her life. Not everybody who is healthy has been able to fight it off."

It is certainly true that some healthy people have died from flu this winter. About one in three deaths since October have been among those who did not fall into the official at-risk groups.

There is a danger that tragic and rare cases like that of Lana Ameen could create a fear factor among parents - greatly exaggerating the risks from swine flu which has already infected millions of children. The vast majority who have been infected recover completely. But Lana's parents say her death shows that all children should be protected.

It would take several weeks to gear up GPs to offer the jab to healthy children and then about two weeks for the vaccine to take effect. So it is too late for a change of policy on immunisation this winter.

There is an apparent contradiction in government policy on flu immunisation. Last year, all children between six months and five years were offered the pandemic H1N1 swine flu jab - more than three million children.

This year swine flu remains the dominant strain and has caused nine out of 10 deaths, yet healthy children are not being offered the vaccine. But to be fair the government is following the advice of experts (opens pdf) on the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI).

So any contradiction - if there is one at all - is not with ministers, but with the committee that recommends policy on immunisation. The JCVI's advice is in contrast to that from the US where the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), has recommended (opens pdf) that people of all ages, healthy and otherwise, should be immunised.

We interviewed the head of Immunisation at the Department of Health, Professor David Salisbury, and he stressed that the JCVI was constantly reviewing the data on flu risks.

He said: "The first thing we must use our health resources for is to get at the people where the greatest gain will come, and the greatest gain will come from people with risk factors. If we suddenly said, without evidence, we should include all children under 18, that is up to 12 million people. It would divert doctors and nurses from saving lives. In 2011 we will be reviewing all our vaccine policy for influenza and we will look very carefully at the issue of age groups, risk factors and so on."

It is clear the issue of who gets offered the jab will be reconsidered in future, as it is each year. If the policy does change then GPs will need to be told quickly, as they will be putting their orders in soon for next winter's flu jabs.

There is also the question about how many parents would take up the offer of a jab. Just 23% of healthy children under five were immunised last year.

We don't know for sure whether having the H1N1 jab last year guarantees protection from the virus this winter - those studies are being done.

Just one in two of those under 65 who are in at-risk groups and so are most vulnerable to flu get protected each year. If immunisation is extended, then how many parents would get their healthy children protected year after year?

BBC iD

Sign in

bbc.co.uk navigation

BBC © MMXI

The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read more.

This page is best viewed in an up-to-date web browser with style sheets (CSS) enabled. While you will be able to view the content of this page in your current browser, you will not be able to get the full visual experience. Please consider upgrading your browser software or enabling style sheets (CSS) if you are able to do so.