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A year in nine pictures
Dec 29th 2010, 14:40 by The Economist
THE global property bust that pulled the world into recession in 2008 began to lift in 2010. House prices turned up in Britain and stabilised in America (chart 1) but slid further in Spain. The process of deleveraging kept rich-world inflation subdued (chart 2).
Robust demand and loose monetary policy let it accelerate in India and China. By late 2010 output and employment had turned up in most rich countries but not enough to regain pre-crisis levels (chart 3).
Bowing to American pressure, China allowed the yuan to rise slightly (chart 4); higher inflation meant that in real terms it rose considerably more. Japan watched in alarm as a rising yen (chart 5) threatened its export-led recovery. Europe trembled as its sovereign-debt crisis undermined the euro.
Rich-world budgets remained deeply in deficit but at least those gaps generally shrank, most of all in countries, like Greece, undergoing austerity (chart 6).
Sadly, austerity did not provide the hoped-for relief: peripheral European government-bond yields continued to rise relative to Germany’s (chart 7).
Bonds’ best days may be over everywhere. In emerging markets and America bond prices increased through most of 2010 (chart 8) then fell as America’s economy sprang to life and investors flocked to equities.
Commodities trounced both stocks and bonds (chart 9). Bulls attribute this to global growth, especially in the emerging world; bears cite a desire for inflation hedges. The tension between them will drive markets in 2011.
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Excellent pictures, Inflation is indicative from India perspective and justifies controlling factors.
Anyone notice the sharp spikes since "Uncle Ben"
decided in late August to give Wall Street more
money via QE2?
Oil may be up 10% Y/y on your chart,
last year at this time I paid $2.50/gallon.
Today I see $3.10+ at all of the stations.
A 20% increase, at least.
I could only imagine the price it would be if unemployment were 5.5% instead of 9.5%.
BTW...
My November 2009 to November 2010 BLS.gov employment numbers show that only 213,000 Full Time jobs were created.
Regards
Huh Ah. Japan had just again became the second largest world economy because of the growth in the Yen after allegedly losing that to China for a couple of quarters.
Congratulations to Japan! The World's Second Largest Economy.
That is a giant relief to us Chinese. Please from now on, whatever you are asking, please go ask the world's first and second largest economies. Or even the world's next largest such as India, who still sports the world's greatest democracy.
In the meantime, off the limelight, we Chinese should keep on doing some serious damage to our miserly average annual $3800US income. Seriously, please don't ask us anything more. We can consider coming back to the table if and when our income had gotten to something like $20,000US. Mind you that is still just about half of you make annually.
Hope it is a better world in 2011. (With our burden, of second this, second that, firmly off!)
This was the reason I felt fascinated by this media in the first place.
More data comparison and less talking (BS).
To Hedgefundguy -
I disagree with your assessment of oil prices. Oil prices vary greater from region to region especially if you reside in a state with oil subsidies. In Dallas this time last year, we paid around $2.50 a gallon for regular and now are paying about $2.85 (just under 10%), but the price has fluctuated greatly this year having several ups and downs. The chart denotes this. I am sure that The Economist has taken into account a wide variety of places to pinpoint the average price of oil.
Most of these graphs/pictures aren't good news. The graph/picture we all should be interested in is the one for the End of Year GDP. If it shows at least a 3% increase then the economy is improving; though only slowly.
Table 6 confirms an assessment made in these comments since April:
Speculators took advantage of Euro countries' profligacy to make a buck: they attacked Greece first as could be expected.
Then they made their biggest blunder: when the attack on Greece proved insufficient, they went for Portugal, the second best budget deficit and second best improvement (a gain is a decrease in deficit).
They should have gone straight for Ireland or Belgium (not in the chart).
Will now market makers finally learn that geography and climate have nothing to do with good financial management? Will they now learn that Portugal had, only slightly better than France, the second best, after Germany, best macro finances in indebted Euroland?
About time they realize money decisions cannot be made based on superficial knowledge and emotions: just good stats and hard facts.
Money is allergic to shallow thinking and emotions as these charts prove.
Hedgefundguy and texas88.
Arithmetic ...
To find the percentage changes you talk about, divide the NEW value by the OLD value and subtract 1. If you know your arithmetic, the result you get is the percentage change ... Otherwise multiply your answer by 100.
So
Hedgefundguy ... 3.1/2.5 - 1 = 0.24 ... 24%
texas88 ... 2.85/2.5 - 1 = 0.14 ... 14%
Duncan
What dose Nfa mean in chart 9?
So many are hard on Obama. Would they wax differently had he not taken immediate action? It appears the US % of GDP justifies the bold actions. I say Bravo Mr. President.
Huyu,
Nobody ever asked anything to China. If your party prefers to be a credit card instead of a democracy, that is just your fault.
House prices in America may have stabilized but
try and find a qualified buyer?
They are all still in credit card debt so deep they are sunk.
@Huyu
what are you talking about? Ask you about what at what table??
i would add another interesting chart - the estimated gdp for 2010 that one year ago was at +1.15% and now at 1,70% a costant upward revision through the year that contrast with the conventional wisdom of a wheezeing Europe !
I smell a rat!!
Looks to me, like these charts have been subtley & craftily tailored & glossed over, to make 'em more presentable & acceptable, to certain vested interest lobbies.
Hmmm..