balasrini's comments

Nov 19th 2010 3:54 GMT

pacer, your last para makes enormous sense, but i guess most would think it nonsense.

the issue clearly how to get job growth, not so much growth as such. i think the fed is focused more on reviving asset prices. if the values of collateral improve, banks might not fear lending so much.the other effect might be a compression of non-treasury spreads, although if that will make difference to a cash rich corporate sector is an issue. still i admit i don't have a clue if qe2 will work or end up achieving nothing.

btw, those who think a job-led recovery will spring on its own are way too optimistic. what if not? mass shelters and soup kitchens? is it then deficits for a worthy cause!?

i also think blaming china is silly. first set one's own house in order. the basic problem is the u s is living well beyond means. not sustainable from any angle - fiscal, bop, resource consumption, global warming - u name it and the u s is right at the top of the charts.

obama is trying to make the intellectual case for radical change and looking for new sustainable growth paths necessarily involving government shaping direction, paths. but the americans don't get it. how do u argue with people who don't believe nobel prize winning scientists - many americans?

the bottom line : qe2, deficits, the whole debate on 'right' economics, policies misses the big picture totally.

Nov 18th 2010 9:47 GMT

'We have now reached the stage when central banks are being asked to do things that politicians know that the electrorate would not be willing to support'.

whatever gives u the idea that qe2 lacks electoral support. the case against is far from proven.

qe per se is not inflationary unless it leads to bank credit expansion. if instead as has happened after qe1 it is sterilised with the fed, there will be no rise in prices.

what the fed hopes is a rise in inflationary expectations or an actual rise in inflation will propel consumer investment spending and asset prices upward. (keynes' animal spirits have a big role here). they have no choice as the repubs are stalling fiscal stimulus which is far better more effective than any qe.

the piece displays a stunning indifference to the real problems of the huge numbers of real people.is it all ultimately a question of vote calculus. and what after that? when will you ever get serious?

Genghis Cunn, thnx for your response. talking of recent times, john major wasn't also the stuff u see nowadays.

true, capitalism and free markets have brought prosperity to most. that's what is sad. we have the money,the goods to make a difference to the less fortunate (who fortunately are few in number). ok some black sheep will benefit. so do we deny help to all in need? i am frankly unable to understand the argument. the vast majority want to work and earn an honest living.
there was a recent survey of the happiest countries. the scandinavians came out tops. their economic policies are anathema to the tories.yet they seem to work in what matters most.the disguised right-wing agenda is to put more money in the hands of the most affluent in the guise of 'incentivisation'.
no space for compassion with these guys. it's money, money, money all the way.

it's all of a piece. a column written by a conservative for other conservatives in a conservative magazine.
want an idea of the basest qualities in human beings? look into today's conservative's heart. their thought process has degenerated so much that they are in denial (and that's putting it charitably)on climate change and global warming - the big issues of today, tomorrow and the day after. they have the gumption to challenge the most eminent scientists and nobels. the tragedy is that the anglo saxon peoples are still voting for this bunch of selfish, self-centred petty minds. not true of europe where the parties to the right of centre still embody decent qualities and believe in the oneness of society and mankind.
it wasn't so in the old days. we had great ones in the good old days - harold macmillan comes to mind straightaway. and what happened to kenneth clarke?

Jul 7th 2010 8:17 GMT

to 'economic freedom'

i find all your responses very interesting and do want to respond to everything u have said, but they'll close this blog soon and i just don't have the time immediately.
if interested in continuing the exchange, pl mail me at balakris@vsnl.com

Jul 6th 2010 8:06 GMT

To ' economic freedom'
thanks for your long answers. they could have been lifted out of any friedman article or book and preach the most elementary free market economics.let me ask: why on earth didn't your darling george w bush allow all the rescued banks to collapse. he didn't have the guts to when it came to decision time.the financial system, the world as we know it was destructing.the widely-parroted stuff that markets will work perfectly left to themselves was shown for the crap it is.(that bush was bailing out a lot of fat cat friends is a different matter).

know what 'economic freedom'? you should read a piece, 'the economic role of private activity' by paul samuelson, found in the book, 'readings in economics' ed by paul samuelson. extraordinarily brilliant writing in which he demolishes the myth of free markets and concludes that even the most ardent libertarians must admit there's no such thing, it's just a question of haggling over the terms of how much government.heaven knows, you might convert after reading it.

Jul 5th 2010 10:55 GMT

'economic freedom' thinks there are only the cripples and the rest who do not look for work and like to live off welfare. i don't know where you live but america is a pretty miserable place now for the millions who previously led a middle class life and are out of jobs now. they don't have ivy league degrees or skills in demand. take for example women in secretarial jobs (there must have been hundreds of thousands of them, now gone forever). where do you slot them? assembly lines? programming?

structural unemployment is a reality. how is the west going to deal with it?

the bottom line for america and the rest: the production of gdp is being increasingly achieved with fewer and fewer jobs of the conventional type (call it a secularly rising gdp:jobs ratio).do we have a responsibility or not for those who are forced out of the job marketfor good?

Jul 4th 2010 5:57 GMT

govt spending is absolutely mandatory to pull out of the mess. it's got to be a combination of income and welfare support for the hopelessly unemployable and unemployed and sustainable growth and job-maximising investments.obama got it right when he spoke of the latter as the drivers. seems he has lost or given up the theme, possibly scared off by the right and deficit cutting crowd.

krugman unerringly (as has congressman dingell)put his finger on the problem.you have to have a 60-40 majority in the senate to pass legislation. neither the democrats or republicans can get there.every sensible policy initiative is being easily killed.so we are going to see an endless stalemate. the overwhelming obama mandate seems to count for nothing.

Dec 6th 2009 2:01 GMT

tri400, who'll do all our backbreaking dirty work?

Nov 6th 2009 10:56 GMT

ricardian equivalence!? inflation expectations, rational expectations. nobels for such arrant nonsense. and it forms the basis for policymaking. forget lavishly-paid investment bankers. it's hi time public and society decided they've had enough of economics and economists.a subject, profession full of half-baked theories, dishing out ridiculous advice leading to costly mistakes. and, no hint of remorse at getting things wrong all the time.

Oct 25th 2009 6:50 GMT

the world's changed.go back to the commodity price explosion of just a couple of years back and u find trebling, fivefold increase was barely reflected in the cpi. pricing power is only at the backend of the production chain.excess manufacturing capacity everywhere.so the marginal guys drop out when the going gets tough, ie., an asset bubble gets punctured.
inflation's probably never coming back in the old sense, despite all the monetary and fiscal 'indiscipline'.
as for gold, the explanation's simple - fear of dollar collapse.

Jul 26th 2009 10:02 GMT

in india, to the knowledgeable, rating agencies are a joke (or abound in mendaciousness). consider that they are rating private banks above government-owned (and run) banks.i thought a sovereign always enjoys the highest rating. have they got their fundas right?
another howler. when enron was putting up its indian power project, with the support of of one of the top raters, it demanded guarantees from the maharashtra state government and government of india because it thought the electricity buyer, maharashtra electricity board, was financially weak. enron collapsed long back, the electricity board survives (and will be around for a long long time).
one of america's boutique raters asks (this is the clincher): when did you last make money on the rating or advice of any of the big boys.
jail is the place for them.

Jul 12th 2009 9:40 GMT

'animal spirits' are fine to lift investors and wall street but what about the others. so we need jobs - of the daily, garden, humdrum variety. with the private sector in a funk, only government is left. the sooner obama realises this the better. lucky, laura tyson - one of his advisers - has spoken, as have buffett and krugman. can't risk very critical decisions rest just on summers' 'brilliance'. too much at stake.

May 3rd 2009 7:23 GMT

you sound too much like you want obama to fail-only the crude explicitness of limbaugh is missing.
the basic point has eluded you- that for the first time after god knows how long we have an ethical politician. that he is a black is even more disconcerting for many. when will the pin-sized brains of right wingers ever understand that reaching out - to the poor, yes the rich also, to other countries, peoples- is not a sign of weakness but one of utter self-confidence.
as far as obama's economic policies are concerned, not even his worst opponent seems to be questioning if they will work, but how it is bad in the long-run. the criticism is laughable. not even the most diehard economist and addict of the subject will disagree that economics is far from a science-in fact a lot of it is just guesswork and voodoo.

May 3rd 2009 7:04 GMT

it is first the British, then the americans who are responsible for the dangerous cauldron that the world faces in pak (not to speak of the paks themselves). imperial britain thought its interests are best served by dividing the hindus and muslims, without the least concern for the long-term social fabric of the subcontinent-yes, even winston churchill, who should have known better. (read abdul wali khan's shocking documented account).the americans took off where the british left - propped up the worst elements in pak in the army and politics and its religon in dulles' and reagan's time.(the republicans are unmatched in their capacity to collaborate with such elements the world over). when you sow the wind, you reap the whirlwind.unfortunately for the rest of us for terrorism risk is not confined to just the culprit countries (u k and u s) but has spread everywhere punishing even completely innocent countries and people.

Apr 11th 2009 3:17 GMT

the nationalisation of banks was widely criticised. yet it was government ownership that prodded banks (and the now extinct financial institutions)to lend to new projects and made possible india's industrialisation. few would have made it had west-like financial norms been applied.they are giants today but there was a time when every reliance, birla and tata was funded by banks and financial institutions. they dare not deny that this played a big growth role in their early years.
india also has a prospering small industry sector which would not exist but for public sector bank funding.it is not widely known that infosys was financed by a karnataka state financial institution after an international bank (now in deep trouble) turned it down.
foreign banks in india are mere cream skimmers.just one example will suffice. tirupur, a small town in tamil nadu, has scores of hosiery exporters. just as bees are attracted to honey, foreign banks found tirupur was fantastic hunting ground to sell exotic derivatives at huge markups. shorn of all the ugly details, the unwary victims lost huge capital-wiping out sums of money. years of toil wiped out in months.
can anyone please quantify the value addition of foreign banks to the indian economy? i bet when the sums are done, it will be a case of value subtraction.

Jan 10th 2009 6:45 GMT

it is ironic that you have praise for monetarism precisely at this time when it has been consigned where it belongs - the dustbin of history. reducing inflation to zero is easy. just raise interest rates and tighten liquidity sufficiently.

Jan 10th 2009 6:00 GMT

i am surprised you did not mention the mpc's david blanchflower who consistently argued for lower rates. his was a lone voice, but was perfect in the assessment of the sharp economic pullback. is it because he is ideologically to your left? surely that is not a reason for denying credit where it is due?in fact, the shamelessness with which monetarists and fiscal conservatives are jumping on to the stimulus bandwagon is a spectacle by itself. is it because their constituents, the giant banks and corporations, are in such deep trouble? catch them proposing loose policies if main street is the sufferer. the first quality one expects of intellectuals is intellectual honesty.

Nov 8th 2008 7:37 GMT

a rather illinformed piece. i wonder how many readers have heard of a place called tirupur in south india. it is today the hosiery and knitwear capital of the world. how? precisely because government banks, led by the sbi, supported numerous startups. the same story holds for plenty of small units in other parts, eg., delhi, punjab, haryana, gujarat, etc. u must see india's sme sector to believe their technology and products. without government banks, we could never have industrialised and become globally competitive as much as we have.want a clinching argument. software star infosys got its first loans as a startup from two state-owned financial institutions after a foreign bank (now in deep trouble globally) turned it down. ask narayanamurthy.

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