Tentative conclusions on democracy & governance
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  • Tehran Crack-up? Not Likely…

    As I’ve noted recently on the Democratic Piece, there has been increasing unrest in Iran in response to the implementation of gas rationing this week. I’ve been trying to read as much as I can on the topic, and luckily Andrew Sullivan posted his thoughts today and linked some interesting Iranian blogs and some great photos.

    Andrew and some other commentators I’ve seen have been attempting to read into this event and perhaps forecast the “crack up” of the Iranian regime. While I think this is definitely an important event that should be followed with much interest by the world, I think the prognostications of the Iranian theorcratic-authoritarian regime are premature.Iranian Gas Line

    A lot the analysis conflates the Iranian government too much with the Ahmadinejad administration. Too often we look at all non-democratic regimes as being identical black boxes with no distinguishing features. Iran = Iraq = Zimbabwe = North Korea. As someone who studies authoritarian regimes and the factors which contribute to their demise and resiliency, I think this is a major mistake in a lot of the armchair analysis and journalistic coverage. The way in which a regime is constituted and operates is extremely important when examining events and trends and attempting to forecast their impact on a regime. Read the rest of this entry »

  • Don’t Give Up on Democracy!

     Greg Lebedev’s editorial in yesterday’s Washington Times urges us to do just that.  As chairman of the Center for International Private Enterprise, one of the four chief recipients of grants from the National Endowment for Democracy, Lebedev is in a unique position to comment on the Bush Administration’s democracy promotion agenda. 

    While I’m not sure I agree with Lebedev’s predictions that an extreme backlash to the failures of Bush’s freedom agenda is on the horizon that could result in closing the doors on US democracy promotion efforts, it’s hard to disagree with his assertion that our failure in Iraq and other highly “conspicuous” foreign policy failures will lead to a major retooling of US foreign policy, including democracy promotion, in the near future.  My hope is that our policymakers will see the continued value in promoting freedom around the world, even in the face of such glaring failures, but in the meantime, “Don’t Give Up on Democracy!”

  • Democracy Daily Briefing – 6.29.07

    “One day, the good Lord will take Fidel Castro away,”

    Probably 11 US presidents have uttered words close to that during the reign of Castro, and it seems that Castro may outlast Bush as well. It is a good idea to consider post-Castro Cuba, and Bush presented his views on the topic at the Naval War College. President Bush argued that the US needs to be ready to support a new political system in Cuba after Castro, and warned against the increasing influence of leaders he argued was undermining democracy in other South American countries, including Venezuelan President Chavez.

    Musharaff to Go the Way of the Mango Crate?

    A NYTimes article yesterday put the internal dynamics of regime change in Pakistan in context of the current situation and history. As documented by the article, the military has historically played a crucial role in regime change in Pakistan. Musharraf is the fourth general to rule over Pakistan, and his predecessors did not meet a pleasant fate. Splits within the ruling military structure facilitated the transfers in two of the three previous general-lead regimes, and the article notes there are some signs that the Pakistani military is growing weary of General Musharraf. Not good news for Musharraf and potentially a huge problem for the US.

    Iran’s Gas Rationing Continues, As Does Violence

    Unrest grew in Iran as the gas rationing plan entered its third day. The rationing is an attempt by the Iranian government to reduce consumption in anticipation of a new round of international sanctions that may target Iran’s huge gas imports. Iran currently lacks the ability to refine enough gas to meet domestic demand and imports approximately 40% of its gas.  The government of Iran has provided generous subsidies to keep gas prices incredibly low, also tying into campaign promises by Ahmadinejad to increase subsidies. The press has defied government orders to not report unrest associated with the rationing. If continued, these protests could undermine the Ahmadinejad administration and lead to a potential change of president.

  • Who controls the past controls the future. . .

    Today’s Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor included a story on Putin’s push to rewrite Russian history. Putin’s recently presented his argument in a speech to a group of humanities teachers and professors attending a conference in Moscow.Orwell 1984

    Putin’s argument is based around what I like to call his rhetorical “sovereign” framing of issues. He utilizes the term sovereign to combat and belittle what he sees as “western” meddling into Russian affairs. For example, Putin and his coterie have coined the term “sovereign democracy” to simultaneously distinguish his form of “democracy” he is attempting to implement as natively Russian while backhandedly labeling his pro-democracy opponents and those international groups and organizations working to protect dastardly universal values like human rights, freedom of speech, and democracy as violating the sovereignty of Russia. These sovereign term has also entered the Russian lexicon in issues relating to economics, and now history.

    Putin argues that the current history curriculum in Russia was developed with funding from “western grants” and reflect Russian intellectuals dancing a polka that others have paid for and writing history books which belittle and foist guilt upon the Russian people for the past actions of the Soviet Union. He announced that in order to fix this bias, the Kremlin would begin to provide funding to academics to develop new Russian authored history books. President Putin also used the speech as an opportunity to minimize the horrors of Stalin and the NKVD (predecessor of KGB) and argued that Russia’s “black pages” are not as bad as some other countries, mainly the United States.

    In a creepy sounding show of support, a representative of the Russian teachers announced that he would begin working with his colleagues to develop a “national-patriotic ideology” to assist teachers in the “civic-patriotic education.” I hope that the actual Russian terms translate poorly and have some deeper, less odious connotation but I doubt it. As perhaps a preview to the content of a”national-patriotic ideology” approved history, the representative argued that the Soviet Union did not lose the cold war, but rather unilaterally disarmed. Brilliant.

    So Russia gets new Kremlin-financed and approved history books, who cares? This article caught my eye because of an interesting fact I learned in a class last year on Transitional Justice and Rule of Law. Interestingly, more than a decade after the bloody genocide in Rwanda, it is illegal to teach Rwandan history in Rwandan schools. The development of education curriculum and a historical narrative is very important, especially in postconflict societies. However, the process of doing such can be agonizing and potentially destabilizing, but doing so can play a crucial role in acknowledging past turmoil, debunking myths, and facilitating a reconciliation within a society. Besides Rwanda, Cambodia, South Africa, Northern Ireland, and the Balkans provide some interesting case studies on the subject. (Sidenote: The US Institute of Peace held a meeting last year addressing these issues, and luckily USIP has posted an audio file and some reports from that event. I highly recommend checking them out, as these issues are important and often overlooked.)

    Putin’s move is interesting because one would be hard pressed to say that Russia is a postconflict society. More important, Putin’s move to soften the historical image of the Soviet Regime and the carnage and suffering it brought to the Russian people and their neighbors could serve to weaken the general memory of life under authoritarian rule. While the teaching of history can be conducive to resolving conflicts within a society, history can also be used to develop a broad societal idea of victim hood, to minimize past atrocities, to accentuate myths of other’s wrongdoings, and to manipulate large groups of society by playing on these feelings. Judging by terms like “national-patriotic ideology” and Putin’s rhetoric, this further convinces me of Putin’s work to develop a broader authoritarian movement based “legitimacy” by stoking xenophobia and anti-western sentiments.

    Every country has black pages and of course the US and the West does as well. What is important though is that we have a system of government that fosters and allows debate. When people in democratic states may and have filled the streets to oppose the actions of their government and have outlets to express views contrary to the state-approved line, but the last few years have showed us that in Putin’s Russia whenever his opponents gather more than five people they are prevented from traveling, arrested, harassed by police or other “civil society” groups, beat, or killed.

    While I could end with trite line about the fate of those who fail to learn history’s lessons, I think the second part of George Orwell’s is far more fitting for Putin’s plan:

    Who controls the past controls the future, who controls the present controls the past.

  • Morning Round Up – 6.27.07

    Mugabe Attempts to Reduce Prices

    Zimbabwean President Mugabe continues to demonstrate is less than complete understanding of economic issues by issuing a decree that “cuts prices” on staple and necessary goods by half, including sugar, newspapers, oil, bread, and salt.

    We’ll see if this move is as successful as Mugabe’s earlier attempt to make inflation illegal. How’s that working so far? Well,the BBC reports that inflation has hit an annual rate of 3,700% with an increase of 300% last week alone, while the NYTimes article estimates 4,000% and notes some economists privately estimate inflation may be at 20,000%. Those are not typos.

    This new price policy is being coupled with a renewed drive by the Zimbabwean government to increase the percentage of ownership of “indigenous” citizens in publiclly traded companies. Although the proposed program appears less draconian than Mugabe’s earlier program to transfer ownership of white Zimbabweans’ farms to black Zimbabweans, a policy credited as a major factor of Zimbabwe’s economic decline, it looks like a desperate effort by Mugabe’s government to shore up support from his base and provide a new opportunity for his cronies to get raid the rubble of Zimbabwe’s once promising economy.

    Protests Erupt in Iran in Response to Gas Rationing

    “Guns, fireworks, tanks, [President] Ahmadinejad should be killed,” chanted angry youths, throwing stones at police.

    That has to be a rough way to start your day. The Iranian government announced and quickly implemented a long-rumored gas rationing program, and public protests quickly erupted in  response. This move follows an earlier reduction in generous government subsidies of gas, resulting in price increases of almost 25%. The new program limits private drivers to approximately 26 gallons a month. Although Iran is a major oil producer, it lacks the infrastructure to refine gas and relies on importing almost 40% of its gas.

    Gas is one vulnerability of the Iranian regime that the international community has yet to utilize. An embargo on gas exports to Iran has been discussed as a new measure to be included in a new round of sanctions. Furthermore, the government’s attempt to ration gas could increase already rampant inflation. Ahmadinejad’s regime has relied on claims of improving the economic situation of the common man and these developments will definitely not help alleviate the common Iranian’s struggle. Prior to the price increases and the rationing, gas sold for approximately $0.33 per gallon.

    Hu Jintao: “One party today, one party tomorrow, one party forever.” 

    In a speech prior to a fall Chinese Communist Party meeting, Chinese President Hu Jintao stressed that although the CCP will continue to press for the political transformation of China, the future of the Chinese political system is a one-party system. While this comes as no surprise and is not a change of policy, it should be another sign to Sino-philes who believe China is undergoing a gradual political transformation that that process is not likely. As noted in the article, President Hu has allowed more debate among intellectuals in party journals about reform in China’s political system, but “western-style democracy” has been belittled while advocating democracy as “increased public participation” in the party structure.

    Note – “western-style democracy” includes individual freedoms, freedom of speech, press, assembly, religion, while “increased public participation” in party functioning merely include more “consultation” in CCP’s decision making. Sounds good to me!

  • Armenian Elections: (Sometimes) Free and (Kind of) Fair

    Armenian Voter Casting BallotOn May 12, Armenians turned out in large numbers to vote in a new parliament in the first election in that country to be labeled as free and fair by the international observers. I was forunate enough to be a part of that observation mission, as one of nearly four hundred Short Term Observers (STOs) serving as the eyes and ears in all parts of the country for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (OSCE/ODIHR). It was a distinct honor to be able to participate in the international bonanza that was the OSCE/ODIHR’s Election Observation Mission in Armenia, and I relish the opportunity to serve in this capacity in the future.

    My experience in Armenia differed slightly from the official characterization of the elections, which described the vote as “conducted largely in accordance with OSCE and Council of Europe commitments and other international standards for democratic elections” (view the preliminary OSCE/ODIHR report here). While the initial findings do mention some “shortcomings,” they fail to mention the unabashed and light-hearted attitude with which the Precinct Election Commission to which I was assigned blatantly committed election fraud while counting the votes and completing the results protocols.

    Read the rest of this entry »

  • Morning Round Up – 6.16.07

    Palestinian Split Hardens

    Hamas has continued to consolidate power in the Gaza Strip. Hamas now controls all of the Gaza Strip and has taken over the security service buildings and the presidential buildings. On Friday Hamas gunmen rounded up remaining Fatah leaders in Gaza. Initial reports indicated that the prisoners may be executed, but Hamas has since announced a “general amnesty” for Fatah fighters in Gaza. They have since been released.

    In the West Bank President Abbas demonstrated Fatah’s strength implementing a state of emergency with patrols of Fatah soldiers. Fatah actions against Hamas’ legislative offices and personnel continued, and Fatah’s forces stormed the parliament and government buildings previously under Hamas’ control and fired all Hamas affiliated staff. Reportedly, during the storming of the parliament building the deputy prime minister was almost arrested, but senior Fatah officers at the site stopped the detention.

    Both Fatah and Hamas continued to argue over the legitimate form of government. On Thursday President Abbas decreed that parliament be dissolved, but Hamas rejected this order as hasty and asserted that their governing legitimacy is greater than Abbas’ due to the 2005 elections. Abbas as appointed Salam Fayyad as interim Prime Minister, but Hamas has rejected this appointment. Mr. Fayyad has been described as a technocrat and a moderate and previously served as finance minister in the previous “unity” government.

    President Abbas has received the most international support so far, including pledges of support from the quartet (US, EU, UN, & Russia), the Arab League, and Israel. The US, Israel, and the EU have pledged to support and bolster President Abbas. Supposedly, Israel is planning to release to Abbas a large portion of the taxes that it collects for Palestine and has refused to distribute since Hamas gained a majority a year and a half ago.

    Turkish President Vetos Bill on Popular Election, Referendum Fight Lies Ahead

    As expected, President Sezer of refused to sign a bill that passed by the parliament that would require the Turkish president to be directly elected by the public, but Sezer has vetoed a similar bill once. Under Turkish law the president is not permited to veto the same law twice. Sezer must either sign the legislation or announce a referendum for the public to consider the bill. Currently, the president is elected by the parliament.

    The date of the referendum has yet to be determined. The Prime Minister Erdogan has called for the referendum to be coupled with national elections scheduled for July 22. Sezer does not agree with this plan and will likely push for the referendum to be held later in the year.

    Pakistani Chief Justice Confident Charges Will Be Dismissed

    The NYTimes reports that the Chief Justice Chaudhry’s legal team is confident that the charges of nepotism and misconduct will be dismissed. Chaudhry recently won an argument to have the case against him reviewed by the whole Pakistani Supreme Court instead of a smaller panel as Musharraf previously sought. The Chaudhry was ousted from his position by Musharraf on March 9 after Chaudhry allegedly refused to resign when pressured in a meeting with Musharraf and the heads of the state security services.

    Chaudhry’s dismissal initiated a series of protests by Pakistan’s lawyers that has slowly grown into a larger opposition movement against Musharraf’s continued increasingly autocratic rule. Some speculate that Chaudhry was removed by Musharraf after a number of court rulings by Chaudhry against the actions of the Musharraf government, leading Musharraf to view the justice as a potential problem as he see seeks reelection this fall. Court challenges are likely to occur as Musharraf is seeking to be reelected while still the head of the army, which is unconstitutional in Pakistan.

    A expected date for the courts ruling was not given.

    Malawian Court Rules MPs Can Be Expelled

    The Supreme Court of Malawi ruled that the speaker of the parliament is able to expel MPs who switch parties once in parliament. This is a blow to the president of Malawi whose supporters in parliament have sought to leave the governing party to join a new party established by the president in an attempt to form a minority government.

    This ruling may leave the Malawian parliament crippled as it seeks to begin working on a budget next month. If the speaker expels the members, they must seek a new mandate by being reelected under their new party affiliation. It will probably take at least six months to get the elections scheduled, leaving the opposition parties with control of parliament in the interim. With those members out, the opposition will have the two-thirds necessary to pass difficult legislation including constitutional changes.

  • Morning Round Up – 6.15.07

    Zimbabwe to Implement Internet Monitoring Technology – China Helps

    The BBC notes that Mugabe’s government has proposed a new general communications bill that will require internet providers in Zimbabwe to install technology that would enable the monitor e-mail and web-traffic. Furthermore, the legislation will empower the government to monitor phone calls and postal mail.

    Many human rights activists in Zimbabwe are concerned that this new law will be used against opposition and human rights groups. While it is probably safe to assume that Mugabe regularly taps the phones of his opponents, the government is gaining access to internet monitoring technology developed by China. While the BBC article (and this article) reports that there are likely ways that internet and e-mail communication may circumvent the government’s monitoring, this is another important example of China’s growing influence and support to other autocratic regimes by providing cheap loans or aid, selling internet technology, or investment into industries in other countries which China deems important for assuring its access to crucial resources.

    Turkish President Urges Constitutional Reform Referendum

    Turkish President Sezer called for a referendum to decide if the Turkish president should be popularly elected. Currently, the president is elected by the parliament. Turkey recently faced a constitutional crisis as the secular opposition parties boycotted parliament to prevent the quorum necessary to elect the presidential candidate of the AK Party.

    The president previously vetoed similar reforms passed by the parliament, but he is unable to veto it a second time. It is not certain when this referendum will take place.

    Hamas Consolidates Control of Gaza Strip

    After days of military struggle between Hamas and Fatah forces, it appears that Hamas has gained control of the Gaza Strip. Life seems to be returning to normal as the violence has waned as Hamas consolidates power. Hamas has taken control of most of the security posts and intends to control the Rafah crossing into Egypt. This will potential provide Hamas with a more reliable transport route to weapons and material.

    Palestinian President Abbas announced the dissolution of the coalition government, but Hamas announced that it would dismiss the president’s “hasty actions” and proceed with governing and would seek to continue to cooperate with Fatah.

    Glenn Kessler of the Post sees this rise of Hamas as an example of the failure of Bush’s strategy for the Middle East. So far it seems the US will not seek to become engaged in the crisis and well adjust to the new reality of a Hamas controlled Gaza Strip. It seems the Bush Administration will continue its strategy of bolstering Hamas while attempting to strangle off Hamas. How’s that working so far?