To date, apart from Foreign Ministry spokesman Hossam Zaki's phoned-in appearances on CNN and al-Jazeera to explain that a) the protests are being exaggerated by the media and b) they prove that Egypt is democratic, I have not seen any reaction by the Egyptian government to the biggest protests in decades.

The explanation is simple: Mubarak does not want to stoop to responding to these protests.

If you only knew Hosni as I do, you'd know he's terribly stubborn. He likes to dig in his heels. He won't be forced into a decision. He is a like a gamoosa (water buffalo, as common as cows in Egypt) that just won't be moved off a railroad track. This is his strength and weakness: this stubbornness can be determination (in the 1980s and 1990s, against radical Islamists), but it can also be his Achilles' heel, his inability move quickly to grab opportunities.

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Screengrab from today's al-Ahram: "Chocolate and flowers on Police Day". That's Minister of Interior Habib al-Adly on the right. Here's the link, I just wanted to preserve it in case they take it down.

Via Ethar Kamal.

Again, just putting up this statement to make it easy for people to find. I liked Obama's mention of Sudan and Tunisia in the SOTU. I don't expect much more than this from State. It's now up to the Egyptian people to show take to the streets again and make their voice heard. People in the comments think I'm too positive about these US statements, but perhaps you don't understand my perspective: I have low expectations, which is only normal when the US (and every other major Western country) has supported dictators in the Middle East for fifty years.

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For my money, the most interesting person in think-tank-land working on issues of neo-authoritarianism and democracy promotion is Steve Heydemann. Steve is not only a very nice guy, but also a rare denizen of Washington who doesn't spout conventional wisdom or who doesn't act like a weathervane (like those people who were for democracy in the Arab world in 2005 but then not so hot about it in 2006). He has a very good article up at FP (those guys sure are productive) in which he makes an important point in the democracy promotion debate:

If Arab regimes are learning from and adapting to events in Tunisia, is the Obama administration doing the same? What lessons does Tunisia hold for U.S. efforts to promote democratic change in the Arab world? It is early days yet in Tunisia's uncertain path from the breakdown of an authoritarian regime to real democratization. Yet it is already becoming clear that the success of Ben Ali's regime in crushing and fragmenting opposition forces has created enormous obstacles to the construction of a new political order. In so thoroughly dominating a political space, the immediate legacy of Ben Ali's regime -- and a leading threat to its democratic prospects -- is the incoherence and inexperience of his opponents and their flailing attempts to navigate between the Scylla of the old order's restoration and the Charybdis of a descent into chaos that might provoke direct military intervention. If Tunisia is an extreme instance of the weakness of opposition forces, it is hardly alone; other Arab regimes suffer from similar deficits. 

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Screengrab by Sultan Qassemi

Above is a picture of al-Sayed Badawi, the president of the Wafd party (the most established of Egypt's legal opposition parties) appearing on al-Jazeera and making the following demands:

1. A new national unity government
2. The dissolution of parliament
3. New elections under a proportional representation system

The full announcement is here [Arabic].

My gut reaction: this is either a significant break with the Wafd's behavior for over 30 years, or he is making this announcement on behalf of the regime. Why the conspiracy theory? Because he doesn't mention the question of the presidency, a chief demand of the protestors. Perhaps he should be given the benefit of the doubt.

Meanwhile, the National Association for Change has made its own demands, including asking Mubarak to step down and Gamal to be disqualified from the presidency, as well as the dissolution of the parliament. Other groups have other demands, including a new minimum wage and the firing of the interior minister. 

These people should be coordinating — and remember they are not the ones who protested tonight.

P.S. Interesting timing.

The most significant thing about today's protests across Egypt is that their scale was totally unexpected. Yes, there has been a wave of protests since late 2004. But none have been nationwide to this extent, and none have been has big. We still do not have a clear picture of what transpired in much of the country, and media focus tended to be on the main protest in Cairo's Midan Tahrir. But that is enough to know that these may be the biggest protest movement since at least the 1977 bread riots and perhaps even the biggest since the 1950s.

It was not predictable, just like Tunisia, because it was an unknown unknown — we did not know that the threshold for such an event had been reached, partly because previous protests had fizzled out or were effectively contained by the regime . While we (here I mean the press, analysts, and activists) knew many Egyptians were tired of the current state of affairs, we did not know that an external change (what happened in Tunisia) could have this kind of impact on a country that, after all, has been protesting for years and that is nowhere as repressive and controlled as Tunisia was under Ben Ali. I suspect the staggering effrontery of the regime during December's parliamentary elections and the moment of national unity after the New Year's Eve January bombing also played a role. A significant number of Egyptians simply do not find the regime credible anymore, and hold it responsible for much of the deterioration of the country — in terms of the socio-economic situation, sectarian relations, and political accountability. Today, a red line has been irrevocably crossed, a barrier of fear transcended.

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Below is the press release sent to foreign journalists by the Egyptian government after the events of January 25 — I am putting it here for public interest. My own comments on the events are forthcoming.

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Many readers will know that today is Police Day in Egypt, a commemoration of the resistance by Islamailiya police against the British in 1952 during which 41 police officers were killed. For decades it has also bee the annual occasion for pageantry by the Ministry of Interior, the highlight of which is a boat show on the Nile. It will also be, potentially, the revival of a large anti-government, anti-torture protests, with many hoping for a turnout on the streets not seen since 2005 or perhaps even the day of the invasion of Iraq in 2003. One of the main organizer appears to be the Facebook group for Khaled Said, the victim of police brutality who died last year and became a symbol of torture, which will be providing continuous updates throughout the day. You might also read Jack Shenker's optimistic take in the Guardian, or this piece on the Ministry of Interior's pledge to arrest anyone who takes part in al-Masri al-Youm. We'll see how it turns out — in my book, if you get a tenth of the 80,000 people or so who support the initiative online, it will be a success. 

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