Manipulation
Issandr El AmraniSomething very fishy is taking place — the Egyptian people are being manipulated and terrified by the withdrawal of the police yesterday, reports (some of them perhaps untrue) of widespread looting, and yesterday's (during the day) relatively low military presence in the city. I can only speak about central Cairo, I suspect the situation is much worse in the Suez Canal cities, Alexandria and the Delta, and perhaps most of all the Sinai. I spoke to my former bawaab (doorman) who is near Aswan, where is he the police is still out and there is no military, although the local NDP office was ransacked and set on fire. So the situation is different from place to place, and there is very little national-level visibility.
There is a discourse of army vs. police that is emerging. I don't fully buy it — the police was pulled out to create this situation of chaos, and it's very probable that agent provocateurs are operating among the looters, although of course there is also real criminal gangs and neighborhoods toughs operating too.
For me, Omar Suleiman being appointed VP means that he's in charge. This means the old regime is trying to salvage the situation. Chafiq's appointment as PM also confirms a military in charge. These people are part of the way Egypt was run for decades and are responsible for the current situation. I suspect more and more people, especially among the activists, are realizing this.
I hope to have more steady internet access later. For now, the questions are:
- Why was the NPD building fire not put out even though it risks spreading to the Egyptian Museum?
- Why is Egyptian state TV terrifying people with constant pictures of criminal gangs?
- Why was there such a small military deployment during the day yesterday?
- Why were all police forces pulled out, and who made that decision?
- What is the chain of command today in the military? Is Armed Forces Chief of Staff Sami Enan still in position?
- If the reports about prison breakouts are true, how come these facilities have not been secured?
- Why are we getting reports of intelligence offices burning documents, CDs and tapes?
The situation is obviously very confusing at the moment. All I can say is that I have a hard time believing that Mubarak is still in charge, and that the hard core of the regime is using extreme means to salvage its position.
Reader Comments (17)
Hello. I'm from Portugal but I live in Brazil.
Yesterday I tried to comment on your blog but nothing come up. Let try again. Your site is on my blog and many people in Portugal and Brazil are following your post. Keep posting and good luck!!!
your site is url'ed on german major news website www.tagesschau.de as a good information source.
good luck and keep on your work.
wolf, hamburg/germany
for another up-to-date analysis from cairo see also http://jnthnwrght.blogspot.com/
And who is going to be the next egipcian president???
All right!!!
The new egipcian hero
Mohamed Elbaradei
Director General, International Atomic Energy
and a tentacle of the CFR - Council on Foreing Relations
http://www.cfr.org/publication/20673/paul_c_warnke_lecture_on_international_security.html
To the tyrants of the worldEla Toghat Al Alaam by
Hey you, the unfair tyrants. . .
You the lovers of the darkness. . .
You the enemies of life. . .
You've made fun of innocent people's wounds; and your palm covered with their blood
You kept walking while you were deforming the charm of existence and growing seeds of sadness in their land
Wait, don't let the spring, the clearness of the sky and the shine of the morning light fool you. Blood is a specialized Bodily fluid that delivers necessary substances to the body's cells ��such as nutrients and oxygen—and transports Waste products . .
Because the darkness, the thunder rumble and the blowing of the wind are coming toward you from the horizon
Beware because there is a fire underneath the ash
Who grows thorns will reap wounds
You've taken off heads of people and the flowers of hope; and watered the cure of the sand with blood and tears until it was drunk
The blood's river will sweep you away and you will be burned by the fiery storm.
poet Abo Al Qassim Al Shabbi
Theories on why the police were pulled out:
- The presence of the police incited the crowds, and vice versa; by withdrawing police the government reduced the amount of destabilizing violence.
- The police are made up of lots of poorly-trained, poorly-paid, and poorly-motivated conscripts; their loyalty cannot be guaranteed.
- The regime is punishing the people by facilitating violence. Mubarak seems to be saying, "With me, you had security and stability. I will show you what it will mean to have no security or stability, then you will support me."
yes, i agree with you that there is something very fishy going on. omar soliman is a central part of the regime, he is an intelligence guy who is overseeing the negotiation between hamas and israel, so he is basically serving the interests of us and israel but not the egyptian people who are paying with their blood and freedom to have a real democracy in the country, once again the government of the us put its interests whatever they may be, oil, israel's security, ... over the interests of the people, i hope our brothers and sisters who are facing this oppressive regime are also aware of what is being imposed upon them, victory is always on the side of the people
This blog is fantastic at this time. I live in London and these events have captured the world's imagination. Please keep blogging, nomatter how hard they make it for you.
If you are interested here is a review of the protests in London yesterday.
http://cynicaljournalist.wordpress.com/2011/01/29/egyptian-protests-in-london-a-tale-of-egypt%E2%80%99s-two-potential-futures/
There comes a point in every successful revolution where the internal securitiy forces begin to melt away and those incriminated in the regime's crimes start trying to cover their tracks. So it seems like the evidence cited in this post could be interpreted two ways: As part of a deliberate ploy by the regime to turn the "silent majority" against the demonstrators, or as signs that the regime itself is falling apart.
The fact that party HQs are being trashed -- apparently without resistance -- in the provinces, and that Mubarak or Suliaman or whoever the hell is in command was reduced Sunday to sending the Air Force(!) to buzz the protestors in Cairo, and the fact that the security police appear to be playing hide and seek with the demonstrators (now you see 'em, now you don't) suggests the latter theory is as plausible as the former -- although of course, both could also be true, in whole or in part.
People all over the world (I'm a New Yorker now living in Barcelona) are closely watching your struggle and sharing some part of your anger and hope. We all should be doing what we can to lobby our respective governments to get behind the Egyptians on the street and perhaps redress some of the wrongs they've committed in supporting the tyrant.
Americans, the least we can do is contact our representatives, join the pro Egypt rallies in NYC, , help get the software out there to circumvent censorship... anything, however small, to put this right.
Good luck. And after Mubarak let's all try to keep up the momentum. There are many others who need to be dragged down from their pedestals.
Viva Ya Egypt. What you are doing is not only for Egypt, but for the entire world. This is a battle between oppressors and the oppressed despite nationality, religion and colour. Trying to ignore the wishes of 79 million people (about 1 million despots!!!!) is testing the intelligence of the entire 3rd world. This is the mother of all battle! Stay strong. All peace loving, conscious and caring human beings stand in solidarity with you.
Please keep up the excellent work....bringing insight and on the ground views of what is really happening. Many people around the world are watching and listening.
Stay safe.
Nancy (an everyday citizen of Canada and of this world we all share)
just support them
Can you help to lead the drafting of a charter for non violence? One like that of Martinn Luther King - but Egyption style- listing generic commitments to peace, reconciiation and non-violence generally and rules of engagement during protest? If it is drafted across all parties, sects, religions, ages, male and female, if people agree to it and show it publicly, it may 1) pull people together in the absence of leadership, 2) prevent outbreak of volence, 3) protect the integrity of the popular movement vis-a-vis a) the remaining vestiges of the regime b) a very nervous and potentially aggressive neighbour in the region and 4) be an effective coalescing antidote to conspiracy theories...Good luck and God bless..._/\_
(It has to be done quickly before the seeds of violence and other conflict "spins" take root.)
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very interesting article, i always wanted to write my own blog but i don't have much time
regards