Arabist reader André Bank sent me the following analysis of Jordan's recent parliamentary elections and the decision of the Islamic Action Front (a Muslim Brotherhood affiliated party) to boycott. I reproduce here for the benefit of others. His views, of course, are his own — but they certainly have shed some light for me on a subject I don't know much about.

Jordan’s parliamentary elections and the Islamist boycott 

By André Bank

3 January 2011

André Bank is a research fellow at the GIGA Institute of Middle East Studies in Hamburg, Germany. His main areas of expertise are regional conflict, foreign and domestic politics in the Middle East, with a focus on Jordan, Syria and Palestine.

Introduction

On November 9, Jordan held its sixth parliamentary elections after the partial political opening of the authoritarian regime in 1989. In the recent elections, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and the Islamic Action Front (IAF) as its affiliated party successfully boycotted, leading to an elected Lower House without any parliamentarians from the traditionally largest and only really relevant political party in Jordan. The government’s maintenance of the highly controversial “one-man, one vote” electoral system of 1993, which despite some cosmetic changes in May 2010 still highly discriminates against urban areas and clearly favours the rural, tribally dominated parts of Jordan, has been the obvious reason behind the Islamists’ decision not to participate in this year’s “election game”, thereby pushing through the second electoral boycott since the first one in 1997.  

In order to adequately understand the Islamists’ current electoral boycott, I hold that we should look beyond the specifics and minimal changes of the maintained “sawt wahid” electoral law and locate the boycott in its wider political and also historical context. This bigger picture of the politics of Islamists and elections in Jordan, I would argue, can be adequately grasped along three axes – or analytical lenses: First, the relationship between the MB/IAF and the Hashemite government. Second, the connections between Islamist politics in Jordan and the wider Arab region and in particular the Palestinian arena. And thirdly, internal politics and the dynamics within the MB/IAF itself, which – again – are also in various ways interlinked with the other two dimensions. 

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The Forward on Abdullah, the puppet-king of Jordan -- how many countries' leaders do you think are regularly spoken about in this manner?

Even Jordan, one of the most pro-Western, anti-fundamentalist regimes in the Arab world, is testing the waters. Jordanian defense officials met with senior officials from Hamas over the past few weeks to talk security. The powwow was a direct breach of the strict quarantine around Hamas leaders declared by Washington. A year ago, Jordan’s young king would not have dreamed of wandering so far off the reservation. Right now, though, the Hashemite kingdom evidently sees which way the wind is blowing and does not want to be caught short.

[From The Shifting Ground - Forward.com"]

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From the Committee to Protect Journalists:

Jordan blocks newspaper edition over story on ‘secret’ Palestinian plan New York, April 30, 2007—Jordanian authorities should lift their ban on today’s edition of an independent paper, the Committee to Protect Journalists said. Fahd al-Rimawi, editor of the weekly Al-Majd, told CPJ that security agents moved Sunday to prevent printing of the edition because of a front-page story about a “secret plan” to oust the Hamas-led Palestinian government. Al-Rimawi said security officials told him they would ban the April 30 edition if he did not remove the article, The Associated Press reported. In an interview with CPJ, al-Rimawi said the issue had already been sent out for printing. Like many small tabloids in Jordan, Al-Majd is printed by larger publications that own printing presses. In this case, the leading pro-government daily Al-Rai handles Al-Majd’s printing. The ban was triggered by Al-Majd’s publication of a purported 16-page secret plan, devised by U.S. and unnamed Arab “sides,” that would enable Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to oust the rival Hamas-led Palestinian government from power. The article, which included documents and details of the purported plan, could still be viewed late today on Al-Majd’s Web site.

Here's the link to the article.

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So it appears from this Haaretz interview of King Abdullah "PS2" (like most people he can't find a PS3) that Jordan is joining the fast-growing gang of Arab countries with civilian nuclear programs and an ambiguous attitude as where there is going to be anything more than just civilian. The boy-king says Jordan has to even though it probably can't afford to, because of those nasty Iranians and their Shia crescent. Which is probably a lot of bull -- if Jordan gets a nuclear power station, it's because men with little black briefcases will have toured Arab capitals trying to sell multi-billion dollar plants with the backing of their governments. If Jordan goes though with, you can bet its power station will be mostly funded by the US taxpayer thanks to the Bush administration pandering to the nuclear energy lobby. That is not to say that other strategic considerations aren't important, most notably Jordan's long-term energy security. But this is not Iran's nuclear program for sure -- unless the Jordanians mean that they want to have a nuclear bomb too, but that's not want he's saying:

"But, the rules have changed on the nuclear subject throughout the whole region. Where I think Jordan was saying, 'we'd like to have a nuclear-free zone in the area,' after this summer, everybody's going for nuclear programs. "The Egyptians are looking for a nuclear program. The GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] are looking at one, and we are actually looking at nuclear power for peaceful and energy purposes. We've been discussing it with the West. "I personally believe that any country that has a nuclear program should conform to international regulations and should have international regulatory bodies that check to make sure that any nuclear program moves in the right direction."

I was actually more interested in other parts of the interview that were highly telling of King PS2's personality. 1. He thinks of himself as a representative of the US government:

I can say that on behalf of the U.S. president and the secretary of state, and I've talked to both, that they're very serious and very committed to moving the peace process forward, because they realize the dynamics of the region at the moment.

2. He's unhappy about Israel losing to Hizbullah last summer and doesn't bother to mention the irresponsibility of Israel's actions:

The frequency of conflict in this region is extremely alarming, and the perception, I believe, among Arabs, and partly among Israelis, is that in the summer Israel lost this round... And that creates a very difficult and a very dangerous precedence for radical thinking in the area. The stakes are getting higher and higher.

But now I suppose I have to reluctantly recognize other bits of the interview were interesting, and I suppose no head of state can give very revealing interviews anyway. Still, his unwillingness to be a tougher critic of Israel, the main "saboteur" of Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations, is regrettable.

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OK so it's only been a few hours:

Jordan king complains of Israeli odors

JERUSALEM - Jordanian King Abdullah II has complained of bovine odors coming from the Israeli side of the frontier along the countries' shared southern border, Israel's environment minister said Monday. Speaking to Israel Radio, Gideon Ezra said the smells, from a livestock quarantine facility, were blown across the frontier toward the king's palace in the town of Aqaba, on the Red Sea next to the Israeli town of Eilat. Jordanian officials contacted Israel last week and requested the odors be neutralized, Ezra said.

That's King PS2 for you: never complains about Israeli policies, but gets indignant when an unsavory smell drifts over into his palace. It probably distracts him when he's playing Grand Theft Auto III.

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Carnegie has a new paper on how Jordan, er, should be more democratic. I have an idea: get rid of the Hashemites. Perhaps they should rule Saudi Arabia instead, it's bound to be an improvement and anyway it's the Hegazis' turn again. More seriously, it's nice to see an establishment think tank like Carnegie take the US to task for enabling puppet Jordan's authoritarian drift.

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The diversity of attempts to normalize relations between Israel and Arab states always astounds me:

The Red Sea Institute of Cinematic Arts is in line with His Majesty's efforts to harness the skills of Jordanian youth by exposing them to the latest technologies in filmmaking and production. The institute would also contribute to His Majesty's vision of establishing a hub for intellectual and creative capital in Jordan, where youth in the region can be equipped with the necessary tools for success. His Majesty drew on the expertise of filmmaker Steven Spielberg, who recommended the partnership with USC, to make this project a reality. "When His Majesty the King approached me on the subject of a Jordan-based, world-class film school serving every country in the Middle East, including Israel, I immediately saw the importance and significance of such a venture for the people and the future of the region.

I have no doubt that films schools in the Arab world are an excellent idea, especially considering the decline of Arab cinema over the last 50 years (especially technically - new movies use cheap film that produces horrible results compared to ones from the 1950s that still look splendid). But why do it with Israel? His Majesty King PS2 once again does his eager Uncle Tom routine.

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Finally, someone does a decent article on Jordan! The LA Times' great Borzu Daragahi makes an unconvincing parallel between the Shah of Iran and King Abdullah "PS2", but his article his shock full of interesting tidbits:

Numerous parallels exist between the shah's rule and that of Abdullah. Like the shah's SAVAK security and intelligence service, Jordan's General Intelligence Department, now in a new hilltop complex in an Amman suburb, operates as a "subdivision" of the CIA, said Alexis Debat, a former French Defense Ministry official who is a counter-terrorism consultant and a senior fellow at the Nixon Center in Washington. By Debat's estimates, the Jordanian intelligence agency receives at least $20 million a year in U.S. funding for operations and liaison work. "They're doing all the legwork for the CIA," he said. The Jordanians have become one of Washington's closest allies in the intelligence-gathering business, second only to Britain's MI6, counter-intelligence experts say. They are closer to the CIA than the Mossad, Israel's much-touted intelligence agency, which is considered to have too much of an agenda of its own to be completely reliable, Debat said. Like the Iran of the 1970s, Jordan has become a receptacle of U.S. interests and trade. American aid to the kingdom has totaled $3.59 billion over the last five years, compared with $1.36 billion during the previous five years, according to the Congressional Research Service. Like the shah's regime, the Jordanian monarchy has surrounded itself with American hardware. Just before Hussein's death, Amman took delivery of 16 advanced F-16 fighter jets. "That was a sort of threshold that Jordan crossed," said Michael R. Fischbach, a professor of history at Randolph-Macon College in Virginia. "They got truly advanced weaponry. It made Jordan have aircraft on par with Israel." U.S.-made military hardware abounds on Jordan's streets. Jordanian soldiers carrying American-made M-16 assault rifles and riding in olive-green U.S.-made Humvees watch over sensitive military and political sites in Amman, the capital. Convoys of U.S. military transport trucks move in and out of the country. Perhaps most controversially, say Amnesty International and other human rights groups, Jordan has become an important nexus in U.S. intelligence's subterranean "renditions" network, in which terrorism suspects are secretly detained and interrogated in countries with blemished human rights records. Jordanian officials deny participation in the program. Many worry that bolstering Jordanian security forces amid widespread reports of abuses against detainees has hampered the country's baby steps toward democratization.

Sure, King PS2 is one of the most contemptible Arab rulers -- even if Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas is an unusually addictive Playstation game. But raising the specter of a Jordanian Khomeini is really scare-mongering (there is no one in Jordan with the stature Khomeini had even 20 years before he came to power to Iran.) If Abdullah went, he would probably be replaced by a more intelligent relative. Anyway, I'm no expert on Jordanian domestic politics so just read the whole thing.

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Modern slavery in Jordan:

Tens of Thousands of Foreign Guest workers Stripped of their passports, trapped in involuntary servitude, sewing clothing for Wal-Mart, Gloria Vanderbilt, Target, Kohl's, Thalia Sodi for Kmart, Victoria's Secret, L.L.Bean and others. In the Western factory, which was producing for Wal-Mart, four young women, including a 16-year old girl, were raped by plant managers. Despite being forced to work 109 hours a week, including 20-hour shifts, the workers received no wages for six months. Workers who fell asleep from exhaustion were struck with a ruler to wake them up. At the Al Shahaed factory, also producing for Wal-Mart, there were 24, 38 and even 72-hour shifts. The workers were paid an average wage of two cents an hour. Workers were slapped, kicked, punched and hit with sticks and belts. In a factory called Al Safa, which was sewing garments for Gloria Vanderbilt, a young woman hung herself after being raped by a manager. All across Jordan, tens of thousands of foreign guest workers, mostly from Bangladesh, China, India and Sri Lanka, are routinely forced to work 100-plus hours a week while being cheated of upwards of half the wages legally owed them. Any worker asking for their proper wages can be imprisoned. Factory bathrooms lack toilet paper, soap and towels. Dorm conditions are primitive, often lacking running water three or four days a week. Any worker speaking one word of truth about the abusive factory conditions will be attacked and forcibly deported without any of the back wages due them. Jordan's apparel exports to the U.S. are up 2000 percent between 2000 and 2005, reaching $1.1 billion, and these garments enter the U.S. duty-free. (Garments from Jordan go to Europe as well as the U.S.)

It's incredible how this sweatshop model of manufacturing is spreading into new countries. Clearly the US companies commissioning this need to be held accountable, especially as I doubt the Jordanian legal system would be of any use. Prison terms for senior management and key shareholders come to mind. And this of course in Jordan, which is meant to be a "model" for economic development and to have benefited so much from the Israeli-Jordanian-US QIZ agreement. But of course King Abdullah is "wise" and "moderate" -- not a short, fat Quisling.

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Abu Aardvark has an interesting post on an attempt to pass a law in Jordan that would forbid disrespecting the state. It started as a response to Syrian mockery of the really rather ridiculous "Jordan First" campaign launched by the Hobbit-King Abdullah. Usually when countries adopt a me-first policy, it means that they're about to mess someone else up. Who will it be? And let's not forget that Abu Aardvark's alter ego Marc Lynch has a piece in the National Interest on Al Qaeda's Media Strategies. His trademark interests crop up:

Al-Jazeera is hardly a paragon of Islamist advocacy: Many of its leading news presenters and talk-show hosts are beautiful, unveiled women, and many of its popular figures are determinedly iconoclastic. Its leading Islamist figure, Yusuf al-Qaradawi, is a fierce critic of Bin Laden's form of Islamist extremism (and is regularly castigated in jihadi circles as a dangerous, misguided American dupe). Nor can Al-Jazeera's narrative be reduced to a simple anti-Americanism. It shows the carnage in Iraq, but it also shows democratic elections and gives ample voice to those who condemn Al-Qaeda's Mesopotamian strategy. In its fervent, sustained criticism of the Arab status quo and its advocacy of democratic reforms, Al-Jazeera can sometimes sound surprisingly like an American neoconservative organ.

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Bizarre: Jordan Plans to Start Its Own New England-Style Prep School. What, Harrow and Sandhurst not good enough anymore?

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Yesterday, a senior Israeli military official, Major General Yair Navah, predicted that King Abdullah might be the last Hashemite monarch, causing a stir in Amman:

Naveh noted that at least 80 percent of Jordan's citizens are Palestinian and said that, due to regional threats including Hamas' rise to power, King Abdullah is liable to be the last Hashemite monarch to lead the kingdom. He also warned of the creation of an "Islamist axis" that could topple the regime. These comments, which Naveh made during a lecture in Jerusalem, caused fury in Amman, and Jordan threatened to reduce official ties with Israel. An official in Jordan's embassy in Israel, Omar A-Nadif, said Wednesday that the Jordanian government expects "appropriate measures" to be taken against Naveh. He warned that failing to do so could harm Israel-Jordanian ties.

Today, it was the deputy chief of staff of the Israeli army, who made dire predictions, this time about Egypt. According to Israeli Army Radio, Moshe Kaplinsky told a group of businessmen that "An uncertain situation in Syria is obvious, but even in Egypt we are beginning to see all kinds of first signs of a possible destabilization of the once-solid Mubarak regime." I have no reason to believe that these are just the professional assessments of two senior officers -- not necessarily the hopes or analysis of Israeli intelligence. But knowing that these are issues which are being discussed at that level in the Israeli security establishment is interesting, for two reasons: first, Israeli security assessments have a pretty good track record of accuracy, and second, it raises the question of at what point will Israel decide to intervene, directly or indirectly, to preserve regimes with which it has a long working relationship. Or to put it another way, to what extent is Israel worried about the prospects for Islamists in its neighboring states?

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News from the Hashemite Kingdom of Boredom:

AMMAN, Jordan (AP) - A new Islamist weekly was launched in Jordan on Wednesday aimed at promoting moderation and countering militant "takfiri" ideology, which brands other Muslims as infidels, the chief editor said. The weekly Fact International emerges at a time when Jordan's King Abdullah II has called for a stand against Islamic radicalism, particularly in the wake of a triple suicide attack on Amman hotels in November that killed 60 people. Fact International is an independent weekly, and its chief editor, Hilmi al-Asmar, is a backer of Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood, a fundamentalist opposition movement. The paper aims to "to fight the culture of destruction and militant denunciations of other Muslims as infidels ... to promote a culture of critical thought and awareness opposed to the ideology of 'takfir,'" al-Asmar told The Associated Press. The weekly, whose name is Arabic is Al-Haqeqa Al-Duwalia, has a "modernized Islamic stamp but it does not represent any specific ideology or any political party," said al-Asmar, who is also a well-known columnist for the independent newspaper Ad-Dustour, Jordan's second largest. He said it will "provide alternative and analytical media from an Islamic and Arab perspective." Besides a 20-page weekly in Arabic _ costing about 50 US cents (0.41 Euros), the paper will put out an eight-page English version.

The paper's site is www.factjo.com. A quick glance at the English articles (had problem with the Arabic on browser) showed a paean to King Abdullah and an interview with "sources close to Abu Musab Al Zarqawi" that revealed that he does not like Shias.

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