Something very fishy is taking place — the Egyptian people are being manipulated and terrified by the withdrawal of the police yesterday, reports (some of them perhaps untrue) of widespread looting, and yesterday's (during the day) relatively low military presence in the city. I can only speak about central Cairo, I suspect the situation is much worse in the Suez Canal cities, Alexandria and the Delta, and perhaps most of all the Sinai. I spoke to my former bawaab (doorman) who is near Aswan, where is he the police is still out and there is no military, although the local NDP office was ransacked and set on fire. So the situation is different from place to place, and there is very little national-level visibility.

There is a discourse of army vs. police that is emerging. I don't fully buy it — the police was pulled out to create this situation of chaos, and it's very probable that agent provocateurs are operating among the looters, although of course there is also real criminal gangs and neighborhoods toughs operating too. 

For me, Omar Suleiman being appointed VP means that he's in charge. This means the old regime is trying to salvage the situation. Chafiq's appointment as PM also confirms a military in charge. These people are part of the way Egypt was run for decades and are responsible for the current situation. I suspect more and more people, especially among the activists, are realizing this.

I hope to have more steady internet access later. For now, the questions are:

- Why was the NPD building fire not put out even though it risks spreading to the Egyptian Museum?

- Why is Egyptian state TV terrifying people with constant pictures of criminal gangs?

- Why was there such a small military deployment during the day yesterday?

- Why were all police forces pulled out, and who made that decision?

- What is the chain of command today in the military? Is Armed Forces Chief of Staff Sami Enan still in position?

- If the reports about prison breakouts are true, how come these facilities have not been secured?

- Why are we getting reports of intelligence offices burning documents, CDs and tapes?

The situation is obviously very confusing at the moment. All I can say is that I have a hard time believing that Mubarak is still in charge, and that the hard core of the regime is using extreme means to salvage its position. 

Screengrab from today's al-Ahram: "Chocolate and flowers on Police Day". That's Minister of Interior Habib al-Adly on the right. Here's the link, I just wanted to preserve it in case they take it down.

Via Ethar Kamal.

Many readers will know that today is Police Day in Egypt, a commemoration of the resistance by Islamailiya police against the British in 1952 during which 41 police officers were killed. For decades it has also bee the annual occasion for pageantry by the Ministry of Interior, the highlight of which is a boat show on the Nile. It will also be, potentially, the revival of a large anti-government, anti-torture protests, with many hoping for a turnout on the streets not seen since 2005 or perhaps even the day of the invasion of Iraq in 2003. One of the main organizer appears to be the Facebook group for Khaled Said, the victim of police brutality who died last year and became a symbol of torture, which will be providing continuous updates throughout the day. You might also read Jack Shenker's optimistic take in the Guardian, or this piece on the Ministry of Interior's pledge to arrest anyone who takes part in al-Masri al-Youm. We'll see how it turns out — in my book, if you get a tenth of the 80,000 people or so who support the initiative online, it will be a success. 

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Forget everything you heard from the Arab Human Development Reports and Ahmed Zuwail about Egypt's scientific research and development lagging behind. The country actually has the most advanced bio-geneticists in the world, being able to retrieve all sorts of information from a DNA sample:

Security sources: DNA reveals bomber was from Egypt’s Delta region 

Authorities have announced that a body found at the scene of the Two Saints Church attack is suspected to be that of the suicide bomber.

According to DNA tests performed on the body, the bomber is suspected to be from Egypt’s Delta region, north of Cairo. Officials say that investigation results show he was a university graduate with no permanent job, who left his family home about one year ago.

Officials also say that investigations are still undergoing in order to confirm these finding and to track down the suspect’s family members for further interrogations.

This new information refutes previous statements by the government, which claimed that the bomber was of Afghan origin.

Wow. Just wow. Egypt has done such a great job at genome sequencing it can determine Delta genes, as opposed to Saidi ones. And it has the amazing ability of determining employment status, university enrollment and all sorts of other info.

All joking aside, this piece is a prime example of why basic scientific literacy is necessary in journalism. Still, I'd like to know how exactly DNA sampling helped find this suspect — if at all. 

Egypt is generally considered a very safe place, and Cairo is perhaps the safest megapolis in the world — consider that in Rio you might be killed for your Nikes and in Mexico City gunned down in a gang war. That's why when something happens, it feels all the more surprising, especially for foreigners who think (usually rightly) that they have extra protection from the seedier side of the city. Check out the experience of this American blogger in Egypt first getting beaten up by some kind of protection racket, and then being arrested by police and forced to apologize to his attacker.

Muggings take place everywhere. But the way the police acts, as Egyptians know all too well, is a much more depressing and serious problem. When you think of some of the things that can happen in detention, the khawaga factor may have saved him from a worse fate than humiliation.

Conclusion: Egypt is a very safe place — until you have a problem.

Update: Also take a look at Sarah Carr's latest post for another take on everyday violence.

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YBG in parliament. Photo by Omar Anas of al-Ahram Weekly.

I recently wrote about the postponement of the real estate tax and the Egyptian government's credibility problem when pushing through necessary legislation. Yesterday a ruling party MP took things further, saying that Minister of Finance Youssef Boutros-Ghali could face his grandfather's fate and be assassinated for his unpopular policies:

Abdel Fattah Omar, parliament's national security undersecretary, launched a withering attack on Finance Minister Youssef Boutros-Ghali in Tuesday's parliamentary session over the latter's controversial economic policies.

"The minister doesn't pay attention to anyone and is hated by both the government and the people alike," said Omar. "I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up assassinated like his grandfather."

Boutros-Ghali's grandfather served as Egyptian prime minister from 1908 to 1910. He was assassinated in 1910 following accusations of entertaining sympathies for Egypt's British colonial occupiers.

Omar went on to urge the Interior Ministry to lead the government so as to "restore order," both among government ministries and on the street.

"Because certain ministers have taken wrong decisions, the Interior Ministry has had to deal with street demonstrations," he said, calling on Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif to punish those ministers found responsible for popular protests.

Quite apart from being tasteless, this is yet more anecdotal evidence of the transformation that has taken place in the past decade in how the Interior Ministry's role is perceived. Due to the social instability of the country and the rise of protest movements from Kifaya to blue collar workers, the Interior Ministry is increasingly seen as a legitimate policy driver, since it has to clean up the mess. In several labor demonstrations we've seen the Prime Minister and other similar officials come away empty-handed from negotiations, while when a police general is sent in the matter is resolved quickly. In other words, there is a shadow government that handles many of the day-to-day issues that politicians and ministers should be dealing with. The Interior Ministry and State Security in particular has become an inextricable part of the way the business of government is conducted, acting as the middle man between the policy planners — the cabinet and the Policy Committee of the ruling party — and citizens. It's not surprising that this MP wants to see the technocrats like YBG take a backseat to the securocrats like Minister of Interior Habib al-Adly: it's already the way things are being done informally. 

I touched on this "securitization" of governance in a recent article for MEI (subs).

I had wanted to write something funny and incisive about Police Day, the annual event of pageantry and appreciation for your local cops celebrated in Egypt. But the above-mentioned cold has prevented me from doing so, and I even missed my favorite part of Police Day, the Nile Squad river rescue demonstration. If you are so privileged as to have a room or be a member of the gym at the Grand Hyatt Hotel, it offers the best view.

Don't despair, though, Jack Shenker has written a nice-guide on how to celebrate Police Day and Bikya Masr has a collection of their articles on the performance of Egypt's finest.

I still haven't entirely confirmed this (partly due to my near-comatose state), but President Mubarak in his Police Day speech several days ago is said to have made several important statements (about fundamentalism, among other things, and allusions to the Iranian threat.) Most interesting though is that Police Day is now an official national holiday — i.e. a bank holiday as they say in the UK (or has this always been the case? I can't remember). Is this a promotion of the police to the same status as Armed Forces Day? Compensation for the humiliation suffered by the police at the hands of the army last March? A sign of a great leveling between coppers and soldiers? Is Minister of Interior and supercop Habib al-Adly the next president? Hosni works in mysterious ways.

Anyway, all joking aside, whatever happens in Egypt over the next few years dealing with the declining quality of police work, rock-bottom trust for law enforcement and a routine practice of torture will be one of the most important challenges the country will face. Worth mulling over on this day.