The Working Group on Egypt released a statement calling for free and fair elections for the parliament and president “as soon as possible.” The statement also calls for revisions to the Egyptian constitution to allow opposition candidates to run for president, the lifting of the emergency law in Egypt, allowing the presence of domestic and international election monitors, and calls for embattled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to declare he will not run for re-election. To ensure the implementation of reform, the group recommended the Obama administration suspend “all economic and military assistance to Egypt until the government accepts and implements these measures.”
In a recent interview, opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei called on the US to be on the side of democracy and “let go of a dictator” by ending its support for Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak. ElBaradei described the latest statements by the US as insufficient: “To ask a dictator to implement democratic measures after 30 years in power is an oxymoron […] They need to side with the people […] This is the only way out.”
Responding to fears of an extremist Islamist takeover should Mubarak fall, he called such a scenario “total bogus” and described the Muslim Brotherhood as “in no way extremist” and representing not more than 20 percent of the Egyptian people. He defended Egyptian society as moderate in nature, and predicted a new democratic government would be likely to remain friends with the United States and Europe.
Reuters-Africa is reporting that General Mahmoud Wagdy has been appointed as Interior Minister. AlMasry AlYoummaintains these reports are as of yet unconfirmed. Gawdat el-Malt was reported to have been appointed Finance Minister, but he has since denied such reports.
Al-Jazeera is reporting that 5 of its journalists in Cairo have been arrested amid reports that police are being redeployed throughout the city. Over the weekend, Al-Jazeera’s broadcast license was revoked by the Egyptian government. Reporters without Borders have confirmed the arrest of four French journalists and about a dozen Egyptian journalists as well.
Update: The Guardianconfirms that six Al-Jazeera reporters were arrested and their cameras and broadcast equipment confiscated.
Update 2: Al-Jazeera has confirmed that its reporters have been released although the crew’s cameras and equipment remain in custody.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, speaking in back-to-back interviews on five morning news shows, called for an orderly, peaceful transition to democracy in Egypt. When asked if she thought Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak had taken the necessary steps to secure his position, Clinton responded, “It’s not a question of who retains power. It’s how are we going to respond to the legitimate needs and grievances expressed by the Egyptian people and chart a new path. Clearly, the path that has been followed has not been one that has created that democratic future, that economic opportunity that people in the peaceful protests are seeking.” Clinton also stated that the U.S. opposes Egypt becoming a “military dictatorship” but that the military has so far shown restraint. Clinton denied earlier reports that the U.S. was “reviewing” its massive aid to Egypt, saying there had been no discussions about canceling or reducing it. Senators John McCain and Mitch McConnell also spoke this morning on network news shows and largely echoed Clinton’s statements and the administration’s approach to Egypt thus far.
In light of the Egyptian Army’s deployment on the streets, Elizabeth Bumiller of The New York Timesexamines the close relationship between the Egyptian and American military. Up to this point the army has remained passive, and its seemingly neutral stance has been welcomed by the people. However, the United States fears that the army may begin firing on the protesters and thereby lose its legitimacy. After all, the military, despite being viewed as a “stable force in the country’s politics”, is still loyal to the regime. A delegation of senior Egyptian military officials were in Washington for meetings with the Pentagon this week. Before cutting their trip short to return to Cairo, a top Defense Department official urged them to exercise restraint. Since the visit, there has been no formal line of communication between the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Egyptian military over the protests, but there may be in the future if the crisis deepens. The question now is how much influence the United States wields and what exactly it hopes the Egyptian armed forces will do if chaos ensues.
In a new piece on Foreign Policy, Gary Sickexamines U.S. policy towards Egypt through the prism of the U.S.-Iranian relationship during the reign of the Shah. Sick was the White House’s principal aide for Iran during the Iranian Revolution and subsequent hostage crisis. Although Iran in the 1970s and Egypt today were and are very different places with very different political dynamics, both countries’ close relationship with Israel rendered them the “linchpin of U.S. regional security.” Despite the egregious human rights record of Mohammad Reza Shah and Hosni Mubarak, the U.S. gave unflinching support to both because of the fear that “a change of leadership would likely endanger their most precious security interests.” Only when the citizens of both countries rose up in mass protest to their authoritarian rule did the U.S. reassess these relationships.
Today, the Obama administration faces a very similar dilemma to the one Carter faced three decades ago. It has the following options: 1) continue supporting the regime, 2) side with opposition, or 3) maintain ties with current ruler but provide rhetorical support for human rights. Unfortunately, any one of these policies could prove faulty in the face of unpredictable developments. Sick suggests that regardless of what direction these protests take, the U.S. “should start thinking about how to repair or rebuild a security structure that had been safely on autopilot for too long.”
The Washington Post asked various experts for their suggestions on how the U.S. should respond to the protests in the Middle East. Steven Heydemann, Vice President at the United States Institute for Peace, believes that these uprisings present an extraordinary opportunity for the administration to reinvigorate support for democratic reform in the Arab world by showing that “illegitimacy and instability are now linked.” In contrast, former national security adviser Stephen Hadley states that the situation in Egypt has reached a crisis point and that, because the current U.S. administration has not pushed for reform as the Bush administration did, America’s options are now limited. There is a strong likelihood that if Egypt descends into chaos, there will be an army or Muslim Brotherhood takeover. Aaron David Miller, currently of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, disagrees; writing that Obama smartly steered clear of the ideological freedom agenda of his predecessor and is now confronted with freedom agendas in the region that are driven by local factors. The U.S. should, for now, remain at a distance until it has a better sense of where these changes are headed. But, according to Danielle Pletka, Vice President at the American Enterprise Institute, American indifference on the question of human freedom now places the U.S. on the wrong side of history. The administration can “right its ways and stand with the people of the Middle East” but it will require the president to take an unequivocal stand, starting with a suspension of aid to the Egyptian government. Like Miller, Hussein Agha of Oxford University and Robert Malley of International Crisis Group believethat eventually Washington needs to re-assess its relations with “moderate” rulers, but right now it should just assume a low profile and resist the temptation to become part of the story. Marina Ottoway, Director at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says that Washington’s response will have almost no impact on developments in the Arab world. Nonetheless U.S. statements do affect its own reputation in the region, so the Obama administration should stop equivocating and give full-fledged support to democracy. Andrew Albertson, former Executive Director of POMED, argues that cosmetic changes will not be enough, the U.S. should press allies in the region to make major political reforms that foster pluralism and good governance because what’s taken place in Egypt is “not a bread riot, but a legitimacy riot.” Ed Husain, a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, ends the piece by reminding readers that there are now millions of American citizens of Arab descent who follow developments in their homelands closely. The U.S. should, thus, empower its own citizens by supporting the “freedom chanters.”
Foreign Policy has re-posted a prescient piece by Issandr El Amrani from 2009 where he analyzes potential succession scenarios in Egypt and gives a detailed profile of newly appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman. El Amrani writes that as the head of the Mukhabarat, Suleiman’s political and military portfolio was vast. In addition to traditional responsibilities of an Intelligence Chief, Suleiman oversaw domestic counterterrorism and high-level diplomacy in the region. His most important role was that of mediator in the Middle East peace process, both between the Israelis and Palestinians, and between Fatah and Hamas, making him “arguably the region’s most important troubleshooter.” Despite the fact that he is widely respected, El Amrani noted that he does not, “present a clear departure from the present state of affairs” nor does he offer “the new social contract that so many of Egypt’s 80 million citizens are demanding.” This could explain why his appointment as Vice President today has not placated protesters in the slightest.
On Saturday, Iranian opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi issued a statement supporting the Tunisian revolution and the protests in Egypt against the Mubarak regime. He linked the struggles for freedom in the Arab world to the popular revolt against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2009: “What is underway is aimed at changing the tyrannical order gripping a large number of nations in the region and doubtlessly, whatever we are witnessing in the streets of Tunis, Sana, Cairo, Alexandria and Suez take their origins from the millions-strong protests in Tehran in June 2009.” In contrast, Secretary General of the Iranian High Council for Human Rights Mohammad-Javad Larijani stated that, “In my opinion, the Islamic Republic of Iran should see these events without exception in a positive light.” Iranian officials have claimed that people in Tunisia and Egypt are clamoring for Islamic rule. However, writers at Babylon and Beyond argue that “even as Iran’s Persian and English-language news outlets describe an Islamic upheaval, its Arabic language al-Alam channel makes no such claims, knowing well that viewers in the Arab world would dismiss such claims.”
Emergencies director of Human Rights Watch Peter Bouckaert writing on casualties in Alexandria stated, “I went to the morgue at the Alexandria General Hospital, where I saw 13 bodies of dead people - all men, young and old, but mostly young. Also visited the hospital’s emergency room and saw many people who had been shot and were waiting for treatment. Live bullets seem to have been used by police yesterday evening when protesters went to attack police stations, but also by security services against people even in their own homes. One man who told me that thugs (whom he referred to as “mukhabarat”, the security services) showed up at his home, accused him of throwing things at police from his windows, and shot him.” Bouckaert also spoke to an Egyptian lawyer who saw 20 bodies at another Alexandria morgue, raising the confirmed deaths in Alexandria to 33.
In an interview with CNN Friday night, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee John Kerry,responded to a question on whether the U.S. should consider cutting off or suspending aid to Egypt, saying, “There are a lot of things before we get to that. We obviously have a lot of tools. But the important thing here is to try to build on what happened in Tunisia in a way that restores a sense of future and possibilities of the region.” He called on Mubarak to check his son, Gamal Mubarak’s political ambitions and reiterated U.S. support for democratic ambitions. When asked about his concerns that the outcome of protests may lead to instability or an anti-American regime, Kerry responded by saying, “Look, we have to take those lumps as they come. And sometimes you literally have to just let the chips fall where they may. I really feel strongly that under the right circumstances this could be a peaceful and positive transformation, notwithstanding the presence of extremists like the Muslim brotherhood and others…The key to that is going to be how President Mubarak chooses to empower the people ” He stated that it is his personal belief that protests are the outcome of the rigged and illegitimate elections which took place last November.
Speaking to the BBC, Mohamed ElBaradei stated, “The Egyptian people have revolted against President Mubarak. This is the first demonstration of this number. He either didn’t get the message or he’s pretending not to have heard. Everybody is of the same mind: he needs to go.” BBC Arabic Service has also learned that Hosni Mubarak’s two sons, Alaa Mubarak and Gamal Mubarak, who many thought was being groomed for succession, have also arrived in London.
Update: Speaking to Al Jazeera, ElBaradei expressed his support for the youth and the demonstrations and called on the army to protect the people. He also called on Mubarak to step down today stating that the recent appointments is a change of figures, but what is wanted is a change of regime: “If Mubarak doesn’t step down today, Egypt will collapse.” He stated that an interim government needs to be set up to organize free and fair elections that will create a national unity government representative of the people. He also said that the U.S. should “recalculate its agenda.”
On Saturday, State Department spokesman P.J. Crowleytweeted, “With protesters still on the streets of Egypt, we remain concerned about the potential for violence and again urge restraint on all sides. The people of Egypt no longer accept the status quo. They are looking to their government for a meaningful process to foster real reform. The Egyptian government can’t reshuffle the deck and then stand pat. President Mubarak’s words pledging reform must be followed by action”
On Saturday, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has appointed his intelligence chief Omar Suleiman as vice president. There has not been a vice president in Egypt since Mubarak held the post prior to taking office in 1981. Analysts say that this is the first indication of a possible succession plan. The announcement was made as protests continued on Saturday, with police opening fire on protesters attempting to storm the Interior Ministry in Cairo. In other areas of the country protests appear to be calmer than those on Friday.
Update: Reportedly,Omar Suleiman is about to give a public statement. It is unclear what he will say, but some speculate that the he will state the Mubarak has just stepped down and that Suleiman has himself assumed the presidency. Mubarak has also just appointed former Air Force Commander and Aviation Minister Ahmed Shafiq as the new prime minister.
U.S. President Barack Obamagave brief remarks about the violent reaction to protests today in Egypt. He said he spoke to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak shortly after Mubarak’s address. Obama said the U.S. would continue to stand for the rights of the Egyptian people and, “work with their government in pursuit of a future that is more just, more free and more hopeful.” He also reiterated the necessity for political and social reform that addressed the “aspirations of the Egyptian people,” and stressed to the Egyptian government that violence would not address these issues or succeed in making them go away.
Jeremy M. Sharp, writing for the Congressional Research Service, has recently updated a version of a report entitled, “Egypt: Background and U.S. Relations.” This reports outlines key issues in the U.S.- Egyptian relationship, including geopolitical concerns in the region. In light of recent events in Egypt, an updated version has been created, highlighting sectarian violence and unrest in the nation.
Embattled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has stated in a televised address that he will dissolve the current government and form a new one tomorrow. Mubarak said that it was his responsibility to ensure Egypt’s stability while respecting Egyptians’ right to freedom of speech. He cautioned that there was a “fine line” between freedom and chaos and claimed protesters were frightening the majority of Egyptians and described the protests as a plot to destabilize his government. He also said he acknowledged the plight of the Egyptian people and would continue to press for political, economic, and social reform. Reports from major news sources say that demonstrators began to take to the streets after his speech shouting, “Down with Mubarak!”
Analysis of Mubarak’s speech and reaction on Chris Matthews’ Hardball on MSNBC:
