Most Dangerous Week Ever


No hyperbole needed this week: there was a revolution in Egypt. Those of us unlucky enough not to be in Tahrir Square got to watch, through tweets, YouTube videos, Facebook posts and nonstop Al Jazeera coverage.

But even if you didn’t have time to follow it, you knew all that, because that’s where we were this week. Documenting the failure of Pentagon geopolitics prediction models. Documenting the CIA’s Mideast mis-diagnosis. Watching the U.S. military’s partnership with its Egyptian counterparts. Examining Sudan’s attempts to co-opt online protesting. Showing the military’s tools to restore connectivity in environments denied by dictators like Hosni Mubarak.

Naturally, that wasn’t all we did. Robots? We had them detecting your breath and serving in Afghanistan. We had drone flights for human rights, as per a new Pentagon initiative. We showed how the air war in Afghanistan has doubled. Pirates seized two oil tankers. Kim Jong-il popped champagne like he won the championship game.

But Egypt’s revolution was the week’s seismic event. We’ll be back Monday to see where it goes next. Without hyperbole. Well, without much, at least.

Kim Jong Il’s Super Sweet 69th Birthday Parties Kick Off

If you thought 16 year old American girls were the only ones who threw sickeningly self-indulgent birthday parties, think again. North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il will turn 69 soon. His days-long birthday celebration will put your spoiled brats’ bashes to shame, America.

The Dear Leader doesn’t turn 69 (or 70, if you’re counting from Russian records) officially until February 16th. However, North Korea have been pre-gaming it in advance of the special day — or the “Kimjongilia Festival,” as it’s known in the country.

Already, parties have been thrown by the Cambodian embassy in Pyongyang, the North Korean   Agricultural Workers Union and the  have thrown early parties. And Foreign diplomats even got to take in a special birthday showing of the celebrated North Korean blockbuster movie “Wheel of Happiness.” Jealous yet?

Going forward, Pyongyang has a photo exhibition running  to honor of the occasion, featuring pictures that depict the “energetic external activities” of the birthday boy. And starting on the 15th, figure skaters from all around North Korea will gather to wish Kim many happy returns at the 20th Paektusan Prize International Figure-skating Festival.

But the real magic takes place on the 16th. That’s when Kim can take a rest from the hard work of inspecting duck farms and bringing the world to the brink of nuclear conflict to take in some of the more elaborate festivities held in his name. North Korean state media makes the electrifying promise that the day will be filled with “colorful events” including “synchronized swimming” and athletic feats performed by “excellent sportspersons.”

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Spy Chief: Damage from WikiLeaks Is Unclear


At a key congressional briefing yesterday, the man who oversees all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies backed off an early, dire assessment of the damage done to the government by WikiLeaks.

“The impacts of the WikiLeaks disclosures are still being assessed,” James Clapper, the director of national intelligence, told the House intelligence community during an annual omnibus testimony on national security known as the Worldwide Threat briefing.

Clapper was more definitive in October. He used his first public address in office to warn that the leaks were a “big yellow flag” for the U.S. spy community, predicting a “chilling effect” on analysts’ willingness to share threat information.

That appears not to have manifested yet. Nevertheless, Clapper told the panel in his official statement for the record that he was “moving aggressively” to protect the intelligence community’s networks through improved counterintelligence analysis “of audit and access controls, improving our ability to detect and respond to insider threats.”

One reason, perhaps, that WikiLeaks may not have damaged U.S. intelligence is that the CIA isn’t on the same government network, known as SIPRNet, that hosted the military and diplomatic cables WikiLeaks acquired.
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Egypt’s Military Signals It Won’t Block Elections [Updated]


Pretty much every military coup is predicated on being a temporary, emergency measure. But barely two hours after Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak resigned, the Egyptian military indicated in a short statement that it’s not going to stand in the way of the popular democracy movement that forced Mubarak from office.

The army is not an alternative to the authority of the demands of the people,” read a statement from the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which now governs the country. Steven A. Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations informs me that Field Marshal Muhammed Hussein Tantawi, the defense minister and head of the council, read the statement himself.

The statement stopped short of outlining a transition to civilian control, saying instead it was studying the issue and would present a plan in its next communique. But Tantawi (if that’s who read the statement) gave a formal military salute to the “martyrs” who died during the Egyptian revolution of the past 18 days. “To all the nations of the world we seek assistance, and guidance from God,” the statement read. Elections are expected by August or September, but that was before Mubarak abdicated.

Sherif Mansour of Freedom House wasn’t so concerned about the lack of an immediate plan for returning Egypt to civilian control. “They’re still formulating their message” for a caretaker government, Mansour said. It would have been worse if the military “already had a plan in mind” that it laid out today, “but their delay means they want to hear what people say their role should be.”

Perhaps. But the call for international cooperation is likely to merit sighs of relief from Washington. The U.S. military believes it has a large storehouse of goodwill to call upon from its Egyptian client. And 30 years of a complicated sponsorship of an Egyptian dictator equipped the U.S. government poorly to unequivocally support the revolutionaries. President Obama is scheduled to speak at 3 p.m. EST, and the #Jan25 revolutionaries will be listening for any signals from the White House about a transition to democratic civilian control.

Update, 3:10 p.m.: And there it is from Obama: “Egyptians have made it clear that nothing less than genuine democracy can carry the day.” The Egyptian military has served “patriotically and responsibly” and now “will have to ensure a translation that is credible to its people… laying out a clear path to elections that are fair and free.”

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Pentagonese: A Primer

As anyone who has ever worked in The Building will tell you, the national security bureaucracy has its own special brand of communication. I’m not just talking about the acronyms, mystifying as they can be, or the doctrinal jargon. Trades and professions often have specialized vocabulary; this is especially true of technical fields and complex organizations. What’s curious about the Defense Department is the way that language is used, not so much the words themselves: popular idiomatic expressions are chopped and changed liberally, peppered throughout briefings and casual conversations alike as universally-understood signifiers of meaning. This can strike a speaker of standard English as more than a little odd, particularly in a world where concrete explanation of complicated concepts seems – no exaggeration – vital to national security. If you’re being uncharitable, you could almost say these low-content, pre-fab clichés are used as a substitute for real thinking.

Now that you understand the disease, let’s take a look at a few of the symptoms. Here’s a brief list of terms to serve as an illustrative primer on the lexicon of the Pentagon.

Put steel on targetTo take decisive action on a particular task, to get to work, to show results. Synonymous with “put rounds downrange.” More often used in the Building to reference administrative tasks than artillery shells.

“The boss is wondering what the hell is going on with this project. We really need to put steel on target with that briefing tomorrow.”

Piece – Catch-all term used to refer to any grouping of tasks, objects, ideas, or actions that can be coherently described by a single modifier; often a sub-set of a broader grouping, as with a specific working group within an integrated process team. This is a tough one to explain, but you know it when you hear it – and you hear it all the time.

“Before we book a restaurant for the Christmas party, we need to work the budget piece.”

Task/Tasker/Tasking – No self-respecting staff officer would confuse his tasks with his taskings, and neither should you. A task, as laid out in Army doctrine, is “a clearly defined and measurable activity accomplished by individuals and organizations.” In other words, it’s a thing you do. Taskings are a type of order, a direction to perform certain tasks. And taskers? Well, they’re the very lifeblood of the DoD action officer! That’s the boilerplate document, complete with tracking number and other administrative impedimentia, that serves to formally notify organizations of relevant taskings and monitor their responses. When you show up at your desk, you’ve got a tasker in the inbox that communicates a tasking, the execution of which involves the accomplishment of tasks. Simple enough, right?

“Seems like every time I get a tasker out the door, I’ve got ten more piled up waiting for my chop. I’m not even sure I understand the tasking on that one, but I think we’re getting stuck with some additional tasks.”

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Internet Explodes as Egypt’s Dictator Finally Quits

It’s only fitting to outsource my opening to Sultan al-Qassemi, one of the leading Twitter chroniclers of Egypt’s revolution. Vice President Omar Suleiman just announced, “Mubarak has resigned. He has delegated the responsibility of running the country to the Supreme Military Council.”

Don’t even bother to try keeping up with Egypt on Twitter right now. Using the social networking service that allowed the world to follow the uprising in real time is like drinking from a fire hose. Monasosh, another leading Egypt-tweeter, reports, “Shit! Ppl are going crazy, screaming and running.” Danger Room friend Michael Hanna of the Century Foundation: “I am close by Tahrir and the roar even outside the square is really loud. Some happy people right now.”

On “We Are All Khalid Said,” the Facebook page that galvanized the 18-day mass protests, Nana Mohamed comments (via GoogleTranslate), “Egypt gets the salvation of God.” The mood is the polar opposite of the fury expressed on the page last night after dictator Hosni Mubarak defiantly vowed to stay in power until presidential elections this summer.

“I’ve worked my whole life to see the power of the people come to the fore,” activist Rabab Al Mahdi told Al Jazeera through tears.  “I never thought I would be alive to see it. It’s not just about Mubarak. It’s a protest that brought about the people’s power to bring about the change that no one, no one thought was possible.”

The euphoria is unimaginable. Peaceful protests, propelled but by no means determined by social media, dislodged a 30-year dictatorship in one of the most important Middle Eastern countries.

Neither violent repression nor an internet shutdown nor mass arrests of Facebook-fueled human rights activists could stop what’s become the #Jan25 revolution. Al Jazeera was blamed for the protests by Suleiman, and its reporters were physically attacked and detained, but the network went to round-the-clock coverage that kept pressure on Mubarak.

Despite the joy, Egypt is now under military control. Suleiman announced the new political situation, which suggests — no one knows yet — that he believes he has its support to remain in power, something that the protesters absolutely refuse. The U.S. military believes that it can work with its longtime Egyptian military partner, but no one knows what will happen next.

But Issandr El Amrani, the premiere blogger covering the uprisings, tweets: “Enjoy tonight and leave worrying about the army and the transition till tomorrow.”

Photo: Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman makes the announcement Friday that President Hosni Mubarak has stepped down from office. (Egypt TV/AP)

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Things Could Get Worse for Troubled Stealth Jet

Delays. Cost increases. Parts failures resulting in one model being placed on sudden-death probation. It’s been a rough couple years for the nearly $400-billion Joint Strike Fighter, the biggest program in U.S. military history. And according to aviation reporter extraordinaire Bill Sweetman, things could still get a lot worse: even higher costs, more delays and increasing stress on a rapidly-aging fighter fleet.

In a series of posts (here, here and here) at the excellent Ares blog, Sweetman recaps all the recent twists and turns in F-35 development — few of them positive for taxpayers, the Pentagon or JSF lead builder Lockheed Martin. “In short, the JSF program has gone six to nine months backwards in just over two years,” Sweetman summarizes. In the same period, he adds, the cost of the jet’s development — never mind planned production of around 3,000 copies — has increased by “$21 billion or 61 percent.”

Originally, F-35s were scheduled to enter service starting in 2012. Now, the first squadrons will be combat-ready by 2016 at the earliest.

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And Now, a Music Video From Tahrir Square

As the anti-government demonstrations in Egypt stretch into their 18th day, singer Amir Eid has placed an anthem for them on YouTube, filmed in part at epicenter Tahrir Square. Its refrain sums up the mood: “I’m Not Turning Around.”

In the video for “Sout Al Horeya,” Eid walks through the crowd singing, and the camera captures smiling, peaceful, determined demonstrators singing his lyrics and holding up signs displaying the message. “We’re dreaming our dreams and tomorrow is coming and it’s ahead of us,” he sings with the crowd, “in every street in my country, freedom, we lift our heads to the sky, and the most important thing is our rights.” (Thanks to Danger Room pal Peter Daou for the translation.)

Video footage from Tahrir Square and across Egypt went viral practically as soon as the #Jan25 protests started. Musicians like UK rapper Master Mimz have released anti-Mubarak songs in solidarity as well. Even Wyclef Jean joined in today. But until “Sout Al Horeya,” posted yesterday, it’s been hard to find music videos filmed at Tahrir Square itself, showcasing songs by Egyptian artists channeling the spirit of the still-incomplete revolt.

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Pentagon’s Prediction Software Didn’t Spot Egypt Unrest

In the last three years, America’s military and intelligence agencies have spent more than $125 million on computer models that are supposed to forecast political unrest. It’s the latest episode in Washington’s four-decade dalliance with future-spotting programs. But if any of these algorithms saw the upheaval in Egypt coming, the spooks and the generals are keeping the predictions very quiet.

Instead, the head of the CIA is getting hauled in front of Congress, making calls about Egypt’s future based on what he read in the press, and getting proven wrong hours later. Meanwhile, an array of Pentagon-backed social scientists, software engineers and computer modelers are working to assemble forecasting tools that are able to reliably pick up on geopolitical trends worldwide. It remains a distant goal.

“All of our models are bad, some are less bad than others,” says Mark Abdollahian, a political scientist and executive at Sentia Group, which has built dozens of predictive models for government agencies.

“We do better than human estimates, but not by much,” Abdollahian adds. “But think of this like Las Vegas. In blackjack, if you can do four percent better than the average, you’re making real money.”

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Cocaine, Crimeware, and Cowboy Hats

That pretty much sums up my two (short) pieces in this month’s WIRED. Number one is about the Photoshops of crime — the point-and-click tools that can turn anyone into an online thief. Number two looks at the latest narcocorridos, the insanely popular oom-pah tunes about and for Mexico’s drug lords. (That song above? Five and a half million views and counting on YouTube.)

It’s all part of the magazine’s underworld issue. Be sure to check out this peek into New York’s high-tech sex trade and Jonah Lehrer’s amazing story of a statistician who cracked the lottery.