Posted By Marc Lynch Share

Like virtually the entire Arab world I have spent the morning glued to Al Jazeera, watching the absolutely riveting scenes unfolding. The images of massive crowds in the street, soldiers embracing protesters, and outbursts of violence remind me of nothing more than the demonstrations in Beirut in 2005 which similarly captured the imagination of the entire Arab world -- though in that case, they captured the entire world's attention, whereas Tunisia's protests have received far less attention. But make no mistake: For Arab publics and for Arab regimes, this is a defining moment as powerful as those Beirut moments and, if it succeeds in bringing about change in Tunisia, then likely far more significant in the long run. I can barely stand to leave Al Jazeera and go to my meetings.

Events are moving fast. Ben Ali has reportedly fired his entire government and promised elections within 6 months, after vowing to end media censorship the other day. A State of Emergency has reportedly been declared. It doesn't look like it's going to work -- these crowds do not look likely to dissipate for the promise of elections sometime in the future. The only path forward I can see which doesn't involve significant bloodshed and chaos is a "soft coup," with a caretaker government and promise of rapid move to elections. I hope that somebody -- the Obama administration, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, President Sarkozy -- is ready to make that quiet phone call and tell Ben Ali that his service to his nation has come to an end. This could end well … or it could end bloody.

UPDATE, 2:15 p.m.: Wow. In the time between posting this and coming back from my meetings, it came to a head. Ben Ali out of the country, PM Ghanouchi taking power, presidential elections promised. Amazing.  

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NIKOS RETSOS

4:49 PM ET

January 14, 2011

Time To Move on in Tunisia

Thank you, Mark Lynch. I fully support your view that the time of Ben Ali has come. And in support of your view, I re-post here a comment I published earlier today on Foreign Policy under another article about the
eveny in Tunisia. I agree that events move fast, and I hope will pick up more speed. Here is my earlier written comment on Tunisia:

Tunisian president Ben Ali tries to cling on to power!

After 23 years of corruption under his rule, the Tunisians have had enough. His offer to quit the office of the president in 2014 is just a bandage to stop the bleeding on the streets, and, honestly, a ruse to cling on to power. The anti-regime boiling in Tunisia is close to reaching the level of the anti-Shah turmoil in Iran before the 1979 Revolution.

But the question any person with even the minimum moral and ethical disposition should ask is this: "Where is the U.S. and the European outrage for
the slaughter and bone breaking of Tunisian protesters by the police of a pro-Western despotic regime?" If the Tunisian protests were taking place in Syria,
the U.S. and its European partners would have been blasting the Syrian [anti-Western] regime as "murderous, despotic," and they would have called an urgent meeting of the U.N. Security Council to condemn it! But Tunisia's despot Ben Ali is their clown, and he knows that he can bloody any opponent with impunity.

It is obvious that the West worries that if they help the Tunisians to oust Ben Ali, it may have a domino effect which may embolden other Arabs under the pro-Western despotic regimes to do the same, and rise to overthrow their autocrats. And this is the epitome of hypocrisy! We are still fighting the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan under the pretext to give the Iraqis and the Afghans democracy. How about giving democracy to those Arab who are trampled by despots who have only one qualification: "They are our puppets!"

During the Cold War years, the Western propaganda was chugging daily with radio programs to the communist audiences in Eastern Europe this motto: "Give me liberty, or give me death!" Now the Tunisians cry for "liberty," but they are given "death" by Ben Ali. And the West just looks the other way! Nikos Retsos, retired professor

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ZATHRAS

5:20 PM ET

January 14, 2011

After Ali, What?

I understand how "capturing the imagination" stories can capture the imagination, but they don't tell us very much about what "change" is likely to mean in Tunisia.

Arab publics can get excited about all sorts of things. What I'd like to know, as someone unfamiliar with Tunisia, is what the opposition to this Ben Ali person proposes to do if they succeed in changing the country's government. A caretaker government, a rapid move to elections.... and then what?

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ARVAY

5:46 PM ET

January 14, 2011

I'm starting to wonder

. . . and Egypt?

There have been food riots here in the past. Plus a lot of highly educated people with no future. Rigged elections. Topped off by a fat dictator who serves the US/Israeli master.

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RELAMINE

6:07 PM ET

January 14, 2011

demonstrations in Beirut in 2005?

Come on Marc, you're not comparing what's happening in Tunisia today with the protests in Lebanon in 2005? Not sure which demonstrations you're referring to, the March 8 or March 14 ones, but neither was anything like what we're seeing today. Yes they were large but they were controlled and contained so precisely what we're seeing in Tunisia wouldn't happen. But also very different context where you have an authoritarian state blatantly killing protesters.

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GRANT

7:29 PM ET

January 14, 2011

It would be interesting to

It would be interesting to know what the army was doing during the protests.

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JOSEP

12:11 PM ET

January 16, 2011

What a prediction!

Your prediction of that phone call being made to Ali was spot on! Similar phone calls should be made to Algeria, Morocco, Egypt and Jordan. The rulers of these countries are well supported and (liked) by the UK, France and USA and they can have them. The phone call should encourage these leaders to take the millions they have stolen from their countries, pack their belongings and disappear into the abyss. Their people would be happy to see their backs and I am sure an arrangement can be made that they won’t even be prosecuted for their crimes. Many would be happy just to have them out of their lives!

I don't think Jordanians can take one more look at the Rai newspaper featuring the daily dose of photos of King Abdullah, and many would puke if they see Queen Rania on American TV promoting her humus sandwich stories again (fortunately no more Oprah programs to host her!). Similarly for the other rulers of Algeria, Morocco and Egypt.

Also, make sure they take their cronies with them. We don’t want another Rifai or Badran or Dahabi taking over. New election laws, fair elections and deomocratically elected rulers! Dreaming? Maybe?

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Marc Lynch is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University.

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