The Use of the MOAB: Is It Really a Huge Escalation?

The use of a GBU-43 Massive Ordnance Gravity Bomb (MOAB) in Nangarhar Province, Afghanistan, today by the United States is being treated as a major news story and a potential escalation. It may prove to be both, but the sheer explosive power of the ordnance, while newsworthy, may not be as dramatic an escalation as some are portraying it.

Before I explain what I mean, let me clarify something: I am no enthusiast for the ongoing war in Afghanistan. After 16 years, the US is the latest power to find itself fighting a seemingly endless war in a land with a long track record of defeating invaders. I'm not defending either the war or the choice of aerial bombing as a weapon, merely commenting on a tactical decision.

While the GBU-43 is indeed the largest non-nuclear explosive in the current US arsenal, that may not equate to greater lethality. (And the Russians have a bigger one.) Other types of weapons, such as thermobaric or fuel-air explosives, can be extremely lethal. And while the 20,000+ pound bomb is he heaviest in the US arsenal. it is partly a successor to the 15,000 BLU-82 "Daisy Cutter" developed to clear jungle for helicopter landing zones, and later in Iraq for mine clearance.

The GBU-43 was originally developed for use in the 2003 Iraq War, but the war was fast-moving and the weapon is not appropriate for urban areas. Though the weapon was deployed during the Obama Administration and its use planned, the Trump Administration is now claiming credit.

Not every target is suitable for such a weapon; some are better suited to ten one-ton bombs than one ten-ton bomb. The total tonnage dropped in most modern wars is what matters, except for the psychological effort.

Afterthought: If this were purely aimed at collapsing the caves, why even announce the weapon used used? It's a tactical decision using a weapon in the known arsenal, so the decision to publicize was for effect.

So We're Told Mullah ‘Omar Died Two Years Ago ...

It was widely reported today that Mullah ‘Omar, the rarely seen, one-eyed leader of the Afghan Taliban, died in 2013 in a Pakistani hospital; Afghan officials have indicated that Pakistani officials confirmed this to them recently.

Given the memory of Usama bin Ladin's hide-in-nearly-plain-sight final years, this raises some questions: Was his sanctuary in Pakistan officially authorized, or otherwise?

Or will we ever find out?

"When You See the Black Banners Advancing from Khurasan": Apocalyptic Imagery (Unscheduled) Part III

When I first heard that the US was bombing an al-Qa‘ida subgroup called "Khorasan," I wondered if here was some mistake, since Khorasan historically extends from northeastern Iran up into Central Asia, a long way from northwestern Syria. But as you might expect, this resonates with our recent posts on apocalyptic end times imagery in ISIS and similar movements. I had planned only Part I on Dabiq and Part II on Sufyani, etc. But here's another of them, as I gradually remembered where my onetime focus on early ‘Abbasid history overlaps with modern jihadi imagery: the black banners advancing from Khurasan (the Arabic spelling; Khorasan in Persian).

Most immediately, the name Khorasan or Khurasan seems to come from the fact that several of the leaders of the group in Syria were chosen by al-Qa‘ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri from leaders of the movement who had been inside Iran (only sometimes tolerated by the Shi‘ite regime) or in Afghanistan and the Pakistani borderlands. They had links to al-Qa‘ida's council for affairs in the Afghan region, the Shura of al-Qa‘ida in the land of Khurasan or the Khurasan Shura. But the choice of "Khurasan" has a deeper resonance.

There is a hadith or tradition of the Prophet Muhammad which most hadith commentators consider weak and probably fabricated,that with some variations usually is cited as something like this:

If you see the black banners coming from the direction of Khurasan, then go to them, even if you have to crawl, because among them will be Allah’s Caliph the Mahdi.

Indeed, as I said, most commentators do not accept this as a real tradition of the Prophet, and many commentators and historians assume it was created to garner support for the ‘Abbasid Revolution which overthrew the Umayyad dynasty in AH 132/AD 750, and which started in Khurasan with a revolt led by a somewhat mysterious figure named Abu Muslim, and whose emblem was indeed a black banner. Some versions of the hadith even include phrases like "they are the sons of al-‘Abbas."  The third ‘Abbasid Caliph (and the father of Harun al-Rashid) took the name al-Mahdi.

Jabhat al-Nusra Flsg

Even if the hadith was a fabrication of the ‘Abbasid propaganda machine, it is ostensibly a prophecy of the end times, and has become popular in jihadist circles. For al-Qa‘ida, jihad begins in the east, Afghanistan and Pakistan, historically part of a sort of Greater Khurasan with a bit of geographical stretching. And jihadism is now seeking to establish itself in the core Arab lands of Iraq and Syria, advancing westward, and, of course, carrying black flags.

ISIS flag

So for al-Qa‘ida Central, moving leaders from the Shura Khurasan to Syria powerfully evokes the image of the black banners advancing from Khurasan to conquer the heartland from the periphery.

And as an aside, some versions of the hadith suggest that the individual fighters in the armies advancing under those black banners will be known not by their given names but by a kunya (the "Father of" name) followed by the nisba name formed from their home town or country. Hence the standard form of the jihadi nom de guerre: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Abu Mus‘ab al-Zarqawi, Abu Mus‘ab al-Suri, Abu Anas al-Libi, and so on.

US Hands Over Manas to Kyrgyzstan

In a ceremony today, the US handed over to Kyrgyzstan the US-run Manas Transit Center; which has been used as a logistical and staging base for the war in Afghanistan. Last year, the Kyrgyz Parliament, pressured by Russia,ave the US until this summer to withdraw. drawdown in Afghanistan means that Manas is less critical to the US effort, but the handover reflects Russia's increasing influence in former Soviet states.

Now THIS is How to Leave Afghanistan

From the UK Forces Afghanistan:

UK Forces Afghanistan

Today, His Majesty's Armed Forces of Tonga, also known as the Royal Tongan Marines, ended their involvement in Op Herrick with a spectacular ceremony. The Tongans have provided a vital Force Protection role to Camp Bastion since November 2010 providing approximately 10% of their Armed Forces for each tour. A remarkable commitment for such a small country. In this short movie you can see them performing the Sipi Tau, a traditional War Dance of Tonga.

Post by UK Forces Afghanistan.

Israel's Stepped-Up Air Defense Alerts: MH 370. Gaza, and Perhaps Iran as Well?

Blogging may be light for a couple of more days due to Spring issue deadlines at the end of the month, but there's been some attention paid in Israel to reports the country has stepped up it's air defenses due to the uncertainties about the whereabouts of the missing Malaysian airliner. (I may be the only person who hasn't talked about that yet, but until now, other than the two Iranians on fake passports, there was no resonance in the Middle East.)

Since there's no evidence of what actually happened but some evidence pointing to some nefarious purpose, it's hardly news that Israel (and other countries in the region I would presume, not least India and China) might be stepping up the vigilance of their air defenses. Claims (among the many other theories) that the aircraft might have landed somewhere in non-government controlled regions of Afghanistan or northwestern Pakistan (and be under Afghan or Pakistani Taliban control) may be wildly improbable (surely US, Indian, and Pakistani intelligence monitoring has that area pretty much saturated). Even if there's a remote chance, though, no one wants another 9/11. Well, no neighboring state does.

But I would also note that even before the reports of stepped-up Israeli measures due to MH370, Israel had already announced a limited callup of air defense reserves last week after a barrage of rockets from Gaza and Israel's retaliation. That, and the fact that belligerent rhetoric towards Iran has seen a resurgence lately, all may contribute to an enhanced alert condition for Israel's air defenses.

For the Royalty Buffs: Son of Last King of Egypt Engaged to Granddaughter of Last King of Afghanistan

A social note for the fans of former royalty (and you know who you are): Former King Ahmad Fuad II of Egypt, who was the last King of Egypt (his father King Farouq abdicated in his then-six-month-old son's favor in July 1952, and though he went into exile with his father, he nominally remained king until June 1953, when Egypt was declared a republic), has announced that his eldest son, Prince of the Sa‘id (traditional title of the Heir to the Throne), Prince Muhammad ‘Ali, is engaged to marry Princess Nawal Zahir, granddaughter of the last King of Afghanistan, Mohammed Zahir Shah, who died in 2007.  Fuad II (who is divorced) is 61, Prince Muhammad ‘Ali is 34, and Princess Nawal is 33.  Prince Muhammad ‘Ali works in real estate in Paris. Fuad II, who increasingly looks like his father Farouq, lives in Switzerland.

I vaguely understand how sitting royal families matchmake, but is there a matchmaking service for deposed royal families?

Fuad II at the right, happy couple in the middle (possibly bride's mother at left?)

"Sponsored Content: The Taliban"

There has been a lot of furor this week over a "sponsored content" "advertorial" for the cultlike Church of Scientology, which appeared on the website of The Atlantic, one of the most venerable of US journalistic venues. As usual, The Onion has found the right response, and given me an excuse to link here as well:

"A Tribute to the Women of Egypt" in Graffiti by "suzee"

suzeeinthecity

I've frequently posted about the revolutionary graffiti of Egypt and a great many of my posts have beens by shamelessly stolen (though always with full credit) from the blogger who goes by suzeeinthecity, an indefatigable collector. She has  a new collection online specifically dedicated to graffiti dealing with Egyptian women: "Women in Graffiti: A Tribute to the Women of Egypt."

Like her earlier posts, it's an important document.

This is Making the Rounds

Said to originate with Mim Nash on Facebook. Brilliant.

Please, White House, Next Time Tell the Embassy ...

Twitter this afternoon:

He really is there, or at least at Bagram. They could turn on the news. Maybe they mean he's not actually in Kabul, but that seems a bit legalistic.

Nothing to See Here, Folks: "He Could Not Explain the Afghan's Motives or Explain Why He Was On Fire."

Great moments in press spin: Elizabeth Bumiller in The New York Times on the incident that took place when Leon Panetta's plane was landing at a British air base near Kandahar:

[Pentagon Press Secretary] Mr. [George] Little said the stolen vehicle never exploded, counter to some earlier reports, and that Mr. Panetta was never in danger. But he could not explain the Afghan’s motive or explain why he was on fire. “For reasons that are totally unknown to us at this time, our personnel discovered that he was ablaze,” Mr. Little said. “He ran, he jumped on to a truck, base personnel put the fire out, and he was immediately treated for burn injuries.”

"He could not explain ... why he was on fire."

Unauthorized  (and stolen) truck driven by unauthorized Afghan on runway as US Secretary of Defense is landing, Driver emerges from truck and bursts into flames. No, nothing suspicious here. Keep moving.

Deeper and Deeper in Afghanistan

"Remnants of an Army"

Coming on the heels of the Qur'an-burning debacle, the killing of 16 Afghan civilians by an American NCO compounds the deepening problem the US faces in Afghanistan. These presumably unrelated incidents simply make it harder to see how US efforts to disengage and draw down for a peaceful and stable transfer of power can work. Increasingly, the US forces are finding themselves under siege.

As Bruce Riedel notes, the incidents also complicate efforts to initiate some kind of diplomatic dialogue. And, of course, they have gotten injected into the US political debate as well.

Fortuitously or perhaps serendipitously, The Washington Post just had a review by David Isby of Diana Preston's new book The Dark Defile,  a popular work about the British debacle of the retreat from Kabul in the First Afghan War in 1842. A British and Indian Army of some 4,500 and up to 12,00 wives, accompanying civilians left Kabul. On January 13, Dr. William Brydon rode alone into Jalalabad 90 miles away. When asked where the Army was, he is said to have replied, "I am the Army." A few other stragglers also survived, but Dr. Brydon's arrival alone at Jalalabad became a famous symbol of the disaster, commemorated in Lady Butler's once famous painting, Remnants of an Army (above).

It was one of those great disastrous defeats, like Balaclava or Isandhlwana, that Victorian-era Britain managed to find worthy of heroic memory despite the fact that large numbers of people died due to incompetence of the commanders (Wellington used the term "imbecility" for Elphinstone in the retreat from Kabul). And no, I don't think the US is going to leave Kabul the way Elphinstone did — at least I hope not. But being of a generation that remembers people clinging to the strut of a helicopter taking off from the roof of the US Embassy in Saigon, I worry that incidents such as the Qur'an burning or the latest massacre, which alienate the very people whose hearts and minds we're supposedly fighting for, will not be survivable.

Time for the Periodic Obscure Linguistics Post

It seems like over the last couple of months we've spent so much time talking about Egyptian elections, Tunisian governments, Naguib Mahfouz' centenary, Bashar with Barbara Walters, banning bikinis (and in counterpoint, the "nude Egyptian blogger" affair and its aftermath and imitators), that I've really neglected to post very much on extremely obscure linguistic points about Middle Eastern languages you've never heard of, for which I apologize. I realize of course that profound historical change, literary genius, and revolution, all interest some of my readers, but for the frustrated pedants among you, relax: I've got links on two languages from two completely distinct language families on different continents: Libyco-Berber (Afro-Asiatic) and Hazaragi (Indo-European). Happy now?

Though these links (which are other people's work of course, not mine) do not quite reach the sublime obscurity of my post on (possible) Punic and Berber influences on Etruscan last June, those of you who need a respite from the contemporary may find them useful.

For Libyco-Berber, the linguist/blogger Lameen Souag, he of the Jabal al-Lughat blog, has posted two pieces on Libyco-Berber at the MNAMON website, one on the writing system, and the other on the language itself. It's obvious not much is known of the latter.(If the second and third links act up, as they're doing for me, you can access them via Jabal al-Lughat.)

Hazaragi lies at the other end of our region, where it is spoken by the Hazaras of Afghanistan. Closely related to Persian, Dari, and Tajik, though it has other influences, including Turkic and Mongolian loanwords, in keeping with the tradition that the Hazara are of Mongol origin. (They're also Shi‘ites in heavily Sunni Afghanistan. This post discusses both their language and their history.

A Bloody ‘Ashura: Is Sectarian Violence Spreading?

For years,we have become somewhat inured to sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shi‘ites in Iraq. In Bahrain, government officials have sought to portray the protests as an Iranian-backed plot, and have thus fueled Sunni-Shi‘a tensions there. Sectarian tensions are always present to some extent in eastern Saudi Arabia and Lebanon, and sectarian attacks, especially against Shi‘ite mosques and worshipers in Pakistan have been a growing problem..

Yesterday, on ‘Ashura, the holiest day in Shi‘ite Islam, a crowded Shi‘ite shrine in Kabul was attacked. As many have noted, despite Afghanistan's ongoing conflicts, Sunni-Shi‘a conflicts have  been largely absent. Yesterday, however, that changed, and 55 people died.

Even in Egypt, which has only a minority Shi‘ite population of uncertain size, a group of Shi‘ites who, under Husni Mubarak were not allowed to celebrate Shi‘ite feasts, decided to test the waters and pray at the Sayyidna Hussein mosque, a shrine to the Prophet's grandson whose martyrdom is marked on ‘Ashura, and itself a foundation of the Fatimid period (969-1171 AD), when Egypt was ruled by a Shi‘ite dynasty. (Al-Azhar itstelf, today one of Sunni Islam's bastions, was also a Fatimid foundation. They were dispersed and arrested, As the Minister of Awqaf (Islamic Endowments) put it, "We were surprised to find them inside, performing barbaric and unreligious rituals. Security forces forced them out."

Egyptian Shi‘a of course, are not being killed, just restricted. But the growing sectarian tensions elsewhere (and Egyptian suspicions of Iran),  may be added to the outright violence in Iraq, Pakistan, and now Afghanistan, and the endemic tensions in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

MEI's Weinbaum on the Taliban after Rabbani Assassination

My MEI colleague Scholar in Residence Marvin Weinbaum offers his views sat The National Interest on the Taliban after the assassination of Burhanuddin Rabbani.

Burhanuddin Rabbani, 1940-2011

The assassination of Burhanuddin Rabbani in Kabul today is a sign that hopes for negotiations with the Taliban are unlikely to bear fruit; it also marks the end of the career of an Islamic scholar turned guerrilla fighter turned politician, an intriguing career trajectory in the evolution of modern political Islam. An Afghan Tajik from Badakhshan, he was trained as a scholar of Islamic law and theology at Kabul and at Al-Azhar in Egypt. During his Egyptian stay it's said he was influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood. Returning to Afghanistan he became involved in the Jamiat-e Islami movement, which he came to lead. He organized students at the University and, in the Soviet era, became an active mujahideen leader in the countryside. After the fall of the Soviet Union, he served as Afghan President 1992-96, whn ousted by the Taliban, and in the Northern Alliance thereafter. In 2001 he was briefly named President before the election of Hamid Karzai, and who named him to head the Peace Council seeking negotiations with the Taliban. He was respected as a scholar and a political leader.

The Press Under Fire in Afghanistan

From Al Jazeera English, some uncomfortable details about the press in Afghanistan.

Richard Holbrooke

I didn't post anything yesterday about the death of Richard Holbrooke, mostly because the Egypt Wikileaks and my Winter issue kept me busy enough. So I'm literally a day late and probably a dollar short as well. I'll keep it brief since most of it's already been said.

His major involvement in our region has been as the Obama Administration's AfPak envoy, on the civilian side. So much of the appreciation (and video of a Holbrooke speech) posted by Foreign Policy may be a bit out of theater for my readers. Abu Muqawama's brief post is more to our point, perhaps.

You may well have heard, as has been widely reported, that his last words to his doctors before going into surgery were reportedly "You've got to stop this war in Afghanistan." I think that's a fitting epitaph for a veteran diplomat, so I'll give him the last word.

Afghanistan Oil

The hope, or perhaps willow-the-wisp, in Afghanistan has long been the country's reputed mineral wealth. The problem, as with southern Sudan and a few other places, is that it can be hard to extract mineral wealth when there's a war going on. Now there's a report of significant oil under Afghanistan. Whether it can be exploited, of course, is another matter. But it could be good news for the country, given the right circumstances.