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Contagious!
"...Now that Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution has inspired Egyptians, autocrats in the region nervously watch for signs of unrest in their own countries. Most observers assume that the next Egypt is Yemen, Hashemite Jordan, or Saudi Arabia.
While all the cool kids are slowly and surely drawing up their plans for Hashemite Jordan (a literal tonne of hot! deets, smoking insight and a wicked little flashback to Sgt Pepper), true purveyors of diplopolititary giganteus zoom out on the big pic.
Check it! The Cairo - Beijing Axis Bay Bee!
ME despotries are not the only ones freaking the freak out.
"...Beijing’s leaders are concerned that 1.3 billion enraged souls will rise up and tear down the People’s Republic of China.
"...China’s communists have every right to be concerned. In a world connected by optic fiber, revolutionary fervor not only crosses from one country to the next but from one continent to another. That is undoubtedly the reason why Chinese netizens cannot search the characters for “Egypt” on some Mainland sites and the authorities are censoring news of the distant upheaval. Beijing’s officials know that every resentment felt by Tunisians and Egyptians is shared by those they rule.
"...So it’s not surprising the Chinese are closely watching the streets of Cairo and Alexandria. China’s netizens, for example, cannot stop talking about the lone Egyptian who stood in front of an armored car last week. “Must see!” Tweeted human rights lawyer Teng Bao yesterday. “Egypt’s Tiananmen movement, a warrior blocks a military vehicle!”
Whoa! Is there a connectible connection betwixt Arab League's implosion and the world's largest collectivist nation state ever?
“Many people on the Chinese blogosphere and netizens believe that the future road that China takes is like Tunisia,” remarked Chinese blogger “Twokeqi,” in a session arranged by the American embassy in Beijing. Chinese netizens were peppering two American officials—Jeffrey Bader and Ben Rhodes—who were connected by a video link as they sat in the White House basement. “Does the U.S. government also think so and does the U.S. government have a strategy if this happens?”
Bader and Rhodes did their best 44 and waxed elegant sincere blocs of irrelevant insincerity in a wonderfully weak moment of not offending the cats who have 2009's Nobel Prizer locked away
"...China’s citizens—or at least some of them—are not so concerned about the tender feelings of the Communist Party elite.
"...That’s a dangerous moment for autocrats, even if they dwell thousands of miles from the pyramids. When a people begin to ignore authoritarians, political transformations occur.
"...At this point, not everyone believes they can send Hu Jintao packing, like the Tunisians did with Ben Ali. Authoritarian governments, as we know by now, always look invincible until a week before their leaders leave for the airport.
Beijing’s lame attempts to suppress “Egypt” on the net—and the admission that “democracy” is spreading—make Chinese officials look fearful as well as inept. Because they are also making themselves appear obtuse and desperate, they are opening the door to “discontinuous political change” in the year that will mark the centennial of the first Chinese revolution in history.
Pic - "American willingness in 2009 to accommodate China and the unwillingness to do so this year reflects the deterioration of the relationship in the last year."
Checking out the riotous events in Tunisia along with Egypt's million fellah march - can't help
shake the breaking feeling the world may be witnessing a new dawn in the Middle East fostered by enlightenment or a new Egyptian government trailing behind Syria as the latest conquest of the Mullahs of Iran?
Syria's Dr General President For Life just gave an Iview to the WSJ (***SPOILER ALERT***) Syrian Ba'Athism is totally in tune with all 19 million citizens of slave trading Syria - including captured Palestinians abused as strategic resources - everyone is hap hap happy as the day is long - no chance of rowdy destabilizing lawbreakers jamming up plans for the old Kuriba al Suryat under Dr General Pres for Life's fatherly direction. Yay yay Bashar!
Daemoneoconic kindred spirit Farid Ghadry recently fired off one for Reuters and was gracious enough to share a hot! follow up.
"...Many smart western analysts are fearful of the Muslim Brotherhood taking control of the government in Egypt. Let us assume they do. What would happen then?
"...For one HAMAS will turn to Egypt for support instead of Iran and Syria. That may, given Egypt’s resources, create some sectarian balance very much able to freeze Syria and Iran. And if the new Egyptian government chooses instead to address the expansionist policies of Iran, then Egypt’s revolution may be a blessing in disguise for Lebanon, Syria, and Little Satan.
"...If, however, the Islamists in Egypt choose the tactic of directing their anger against Little Satan by siding with Iran, they will have to take into consideration a citizenry who may bolt at the notion their historic country has now become a satellite to the Wilayat al-Faqih of Iran. One important Imam from al-Azhar is all it takes to re-direct Egypt’s foreign policy. Further, Saudi Arabia fearful of Iran, will supply the necessary aid to Egypt to persuade its government to focus on the clearest of dangers.
"...However, given the turbulent history Islam has had with outsiders and given our modern history with how we treat Little Satan, let us assume Iran and Egypt will merge their foreign policy goals when it comes to Little Satan. Iran will use violence and threats to contain dissent the way it did in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia would not be able to do a damn thing about it. It would not surprise me at all if Iran has not already sent some high-level IRGC operatives into Cairo to plant their venomous seeds.
"...Under these circumstances, the west must contemplate what I have suggested in my article to Reuters, mainly break the long hand of Iran by breaking off its supply routes in Syria. Syria becomes key to freezing the two new extremist giants represented by two extremist governments.
"...Some will say: But what if the Islamists in Syria take charge if we help you dismantle the regime? I know Syria and I know Syrians; alternative to Assad are: Secular Syrians, Socialist Syrians, Ba’athist Syrians, Minority Syrians, Communist Syrians, Islamist Syrians, and moderate Muslim Syrians. Not just the Muslim Brotherhood.
"...OK, you’re not convinced, so let us assume Islamists will rule Syria after Assad. What then?
Two scenarios in this case.
"...The most likely scenario is the empowerment of all Arab Sunnis across the region. This is good and bad at the same time (I speak as a Sunni). Good because it will contain the extremist government in Iran and choke Hiz'B'Allah, a terrorist organization. The Gulf, with its petro-dollars and need for protection by Great Satan, will dictate the tempo when Assad is deposed. Bad because too much empowerment of a Sunni majority will inevitably lead to oppression and atrocities, something the region can no longer afford.
"...The other and unlikely scenario is that extremist Sunnis, even though forming the majority in the region, continue to take marching orders from Tehran. Considering Assad and Hiz'B'Allah killed Hariri who was Sunni, it is almost certain this scenario won’t happen. The new Syria, run by extremists, will form delineating and clear lines and tip the balance towards containing the extremists in Tehran.
Two or more extremist govs checking each other out. What better scenario to wish for?
"...As far as truly secular or moderate Muslim leaders are concerned, our turn will come when the Islamists in Damascus fail to provide what the people of Syria demanded and continue to demand: Freedom, Democracy, and Human Rights in addition to economic prosperity.
"...We have no choice but to depose Assad if Egypt falls.
Pic - "The future could witness al Qaeda No. 2 and former Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood stalwart Ayman al Zawahiri making a triumphant return to Cairo."
Ikhwan!
The delightful tingly sensation of being totally correct - so far - certainly opens up a bit of psychic future looking at Aegypt.
Pyramidland's President Pharoh For Life must go. The sooner the better - in fact - the longer he clings to power the more likely the worst of a future Persian style theocrazy scenario becomes.
"...Arab world is being left behind by other regions, whether the benchmark be literacy, educational achievement, private enterprise, healthcare or women's rights. These trends, if allowed to continue unchecked, promise only more days of rage, more instability and more grief.
Just lucky - Great Satan has game in giving an assist to allied despotries swinging all the way over to fun, functional democrazy status. Philippines, SoKo - even Land of the Pure - all had suffered with Leaders for Life of nation/states vital to Great Satan's hot! interests in the diplopolititary realm.
If Great Satan creates yet another inside out dictatorship to democrazy trip - like in Pyramidland right now - her street wise tricks and cred will be off the hook as "... much-needed credibility in the region. Successful transitions in Egypt and Tunisia could herald a reimagined relationship..." betwixt Great Satan and the entire Arab League- just as 44 promised in the "New Beginning" speech at Cairo
"...No one should underestimate the crucial role of international actors. Rarely do successful democratic transitions occur without constructive engagement from Western governments and organizations.
44 should ideally be way out in front on this - failing to recover from the Realist in the head leaks or Bystander In Chief mode could leave 3 probable scenarios for a new Egypt:
A Burmese/Myanmarish Military gov:
"...Whether the military assumes power in Cairo, as has been the case in Rangoon for decades, is unclear. Sami Annan, the army's chief of staff, and Defense Minister Mohammed Hussein Tantawi traveled to Washington at the beginning of the week. The military leadership is undoubtedly coordinating its next steps with the Pentagon, despite the fact that Washington threatened to freeze military aid to Cairo on Friday evening.
"...Modern-day Egypt has a tradition of having presidents with military backgrounds. Gamel Abdal Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak, Egypt's three leaders since 1954, all had army backgrounds. And Defense Minister Tantawi, 75, is significantly more popular than intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, also frequently mentioned as a possible successor to Mubarak.
Neo Ottoman ala Turkey:
"...The Turkish model espoused by the Justice and Development Party (AKP ) of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has inspired many Arab democrats. It is the only successful attempt to date to domesticate political Islam, an attempt that has succeeded both economically and in terms of foreign policy. Of course, to implement this model in Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood would have to follow the example of Turkey's Islamists, that is, to significantly modernize its image of humanity and more clearly distance itself from terror than it has done to date.
Which brings up the uncool idea of a Sunni Theocrazy not unlike Iran's Ayatollah regime.
"...The m"Hammedist Bro Hood would be calamitous for U.S. security. What's more, their current defenders don't really argue that point, as much as they seem to dismiss it as not important or something we can live with. The MB supports Hamas and other terrorist groups, makes friendly noises to Iranian dictators and torturers, would be uncertain landlords of the critical Suez Canal, and opposes the Egyptian-Israeli agreement of 1979, widely regarded as the foundation of peace in the Mideast. Above all, the MB would endanger counterterrorism efforts in the region and worldwide. That is a very big deal.
Ikhwan may be the best organized (and most ruthless?) political opfor group in Pyramidland yet it is worth remembering that in the mommie land of all of Araby with a population of 80 million, BroHood membership is guestimated to be in the low hundreds of thousands - last year the movement contested less than a third of all parliamentary seats.
Assuming the worst case scenario would indeed be scary.
Especially for Egypt.
If a magical Sunnilicious caliphate seized control, opened season on killing Xians, tormented women and girls (even more than now) severed all ties with Great and Little Satan, allowed Egyptian embassies worldwide to become associates or enablers of a myriad of terroristic groups, proclaimed the Cold Peace was over, began a chaotic transit experiment with Suez canal, armed and infiltrated weaponry and volte d'guerres into the Strip to practice asymmetrical warfare - then look out!
Foreign aid would evaporate overnight, crushing UN sanctioned sanctions strangles the economy til it ceased to exist, spy wars would rage across Egypt, the Suez would taken into internat'l rec'vership, and any radical fundie gov would end up exactly where Pres For Life Hosni is today
Pic - "Searching for something missed before"
Oh yes.
These cats are harder to recipp link love than the something something Foreign Policy Watch cats (decorum prohibs further extrapolation).
Any wrought, feel free to utilize this awesomely hot! Ink Spots screensaver.
Pic - "Hey! How's that democrazy denial/despotry deconstruction diss going?"
Thank you sir, may we have another?
Council Winners
Non-Council Winners
Honorable Mentions
See you next week!
Whoa!
Kinda like those wikiliquer shotses - the regional wide unrest in the sad collective of failing nation states collectively nom d'guerr'd "Arab League" - proves (again) daemoneoconicism is way more correct than any other school of tho't available.
Like Pyramidland. Undying Pharoh for Life Hosni has ruled by emergency decrees for eons - since way back in the last millennium.
Aside from keeping a lid on political opposition, political fundie m"Hammedism and maintaining a very Cold Peace with Little Satan, Egypt's accomplishments are horribly embarrassing. Egypt leads the world in two things - unspeakable gender apartheid and rec'ving American Foreign Aid.
Revolutions and inside out Regime Changin' are not unlike heavy petting - who knows where it could end up at?
"...One reason that we have to regard the prospect of an Egyptian upheaval with trepidation is that Mubarak has systematically neutered his organized democratic opposition, leaving (politcal m"Hammedism) as the most obvious alternative
"...By all appearances, the protesters in Egypt are secular democracy activists who, for their troubles, are getting beaten with bamboo sticks and having rocks thrown at them by the police. The Ikwan (m"Hammedist Brotherhood) has, so far, been sitting out the demonstrations as an entity.
"...If the protesters were to succeed in toppling Mubarak — sending him packing to Saudi Arabia, as some of their signs suggest — it could open the way for an even less appealing regime. In a revolutionary situation, often he who is best organized, and most willful and bloody-minded, prevails.
While valid way back in the 2003 days, that may be suspect in the modern era.
Hysterical clerical regimes have proven they are totally great at preaching, deploying panty police or banning cool emo/goth hair styles, music, fun and free choice - yet totally suck at nearly any endeavor of modern statecraft.
Iran (and HAMAS too) totally queers the mix on estabbing a caliphatical Preacher's Paradise. From mismanaging the economy, dubious foreign adventures in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq, repressing and alienating a society chock full of kids, the theocrazy preacher ran regime in Tehran has been totally discredited on live tv.
HAMAS has shown they have nearly perfected homegrown rocketeers, and are actually quite good at starting wars, human shielding and electile phobia. They represent no one but a curious idea of a Preachers Paradise, perhaps not as corrupt as secular Arab despotries but certainly as unfun and unfree as any.
A fully crunk fundie gov may no longer be seen as an alluring mythical alternative to the wretched reality of Arab regimes in which people live - In Iran and the Strip - fundamentalism IS the wretched reality in which people live.
Most likely Undying Pharoh Hosni will crack enough heads to maintain power for another season. If the riot police chicken out, the military is called in and refuses to act out against unarmed civies in the street - anything could happen mein schatze!
And Great Satan should make it clear -it's time for him to split - sooner rather than later.
"...Mubarak — 82 years old and up for election in the fall — that he’s now a transitional figure, and that the days of our easy tolerance for his dictatorial rule are over. Lift the emergency decrees he’s imposed since 1981, liberalize the election laws, and restore the judicial oversight of elections. If he’s not amenable, well, there’s no reason we need to keep shoveling vast amounts of aid his way.
Pic - "And I'm burning, I'm burning, I'm burning for you"
Levant!
The overtly robust bespectacled girthy Body Part Collector General issued a rambling, hard to follow statement - essentially - Hiz'B'Allah wouldn't go out of their way to kill anyone - unless anyone got in their way
Since collapsing the gov,
Hiz'B'Allah is on their way to xforming what's left of Lebanon's parliamentary democracy into a terrorist parliamentary democracy.
Inexplicably, some may not see a big deal - worthy of Great Satan's "...interests that should occupy the time of senior policy-makers... " in Lebanon,
yet, it certainly IS a big deal bay bee.
Consider:
Hiz'B'Allah is an official enemy of Great Satan. A terrorist org that owes America a blood debt with NO statue of limitations. An org that is illegal to do biz with in any way.
Hiz'B'Allah's two patrons are Official Designated Creep Nations - Iran and Syria.
"...Lebanon is now governed by a terrorist organization, which means that unlike Hiz'B'Allah's patrons in Iran and Syria, the country is not merely a state sponsor of terror, but is an actual terrorist state, and one that will be in violation of several UN Security Council resolutions..."
With a bona fided nation state like Lebanon in Hiz'B'Allah's bloody clutches, terrorists could be granted ambassadorships, Foreign Ministry posts, Defense Ministry commands, etc, etc. Hariri's own assassins could be given diplomatic immunity.
Just imagine. Imad Muganiyah's cadre able to trek all about the world - comfy and safe as milk with official government portfolios as cover
Lebanon's embassies around the world could augment Hiz'B'Allah's global reach
Even more - Hiz'B'Allah are simply the most proficient killers and serial tormentors of Americans since Cold War time. And it's not all ancient 'Flock of Seagulls" era either. Hiz'B'Allah trained Mahdi Army and engaged in missions against Americans in Iraq - in fact any American casualty since 2005 could very well be attributed to Hiz'B'Allah.
Pic - "Lebanon, or at least the democratic forces in Lebanon, are being held hostage. And no one, is going to come to her rescue."
