This Week:
Anatomy of a Bubble
Informally, we can think of a bubble as an advance in an asset's price to levels that are "detached from fundamentals" - essentially, the primary motive for investing ceases to be the expectation of future cash flows or consumption, and instead centers on the expectation of further increases in price. From this perspective, a bubble emerges at the point where a continual increase in the ratio of prices to fundamentals is required in order for investors to achieve satisfactory returns.
By John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust

Archived Comments

Reprint Policy

March 14, 2011 - Anatomy of a Bubble
March 7, 2011 - Quantitative Easing and the Iron Law of Equilibrium
February 28, 2011 - Cash and Credit - Implications for the Financial Markets
February 20, 2011 - Hussman Funds 12/10 Semi-Annual Report
February 14, 2011 - Rich Valuations and Poor Market Returns
February 7, 2011 - Misquoting Keynes
January 31, 2011 - Mapping the Molecular Pathway of Autism
January 24, 2011 - Sixteen Cents: Pushing the Unstable Limits of Monetary Policy
January 17, 2011 - Borrowing Returns from the Future
January 10, 2011 - "Illusory Prosperity - Ludwig von Mises on Monetary Policy
January 3, 2011 - Setup and Resolution
December 27, 2010 - A Fed-Induced Speculative Blowoff
December 20, 2010 - Things I Believe
December 13, 2010 - Warning - An Updated Who's Who of Awful Times to Invest
December 6, 2010 - A Most Important Rule
November 29, 2010 - House on Ice
November 22, 2010 - Outside the Oval / The Case Against the Fed
November 15, 2010 - The Cliff
November 8, 2010 - Bubble, Crash, Bubble, Crash, Bubble...
November 1, 2010 - Lessons From a Lost Decade
October 25, 2010 - Bernanke Leaps into a Liquidity Trap
October 18, 2010 - The Recklessness of Quantitative Easing
October 11, 2010 - No Margin of Safety, No Room for Error
October 4, 2010 - Economic Measures Continue to Slow
September 27, 2010 - Not Yet Out of the Woods
September 20, 2010 - Sequential Signals
September 13, 2010 - Impulse Response
September 6, 2010 - The Recognition Window
August 30, 2010 - Hussman Funds 2010 Annual Report
August 23, 2010 - Why Quantitative Easing is Likely to Trigger a Collapse of the U.S. Dollar
August 16, 2010 - A Fragile Economic Outlook Continues
August 9, 2010 - Corporate "Cash" - Cheering the Asset and
Ignoring the Liability
August 2 , 2010 - Valuing the S&P 500 Using Forward Operating Earnings
July 26, 2010 - Betting on a Bubble, Bracing for a Fall
July 19, 2010 - Don't Take the Bait
July 12, 2010 - Misallocating Resources
July 6, 2010 - Implications of a Likely Economic Downturn
June 28, 2010 - Recession Warning
June 21, 2010 - Cliffhanger
June 14, 2010 - Born on Third Base
June 7, 2010 - Extraordinarily Large Band-Aids
June 1, 2010 - Oil and Red Ink
May 24, 2010 - Don't Mess with Aunt Minnie
May 17, 2010 - Two Choices: Restructure Debts or Debase Currencies
May 10, 2010 - Greek Debt and Backward Induction
May 3, 2010 - Violating the No-Ponzi Condition
April 26, 2010 - Looking Back, Looking Forward
April 19, 2010 - Earning More by Setting Aside Less
April 12, 2010 - Extend and Pretend
April 5, 2010 - Unpleasant Skew
March 29, 2010 - Possible Outcomes: A Typical Post-War
Recovery, or a Perfect Storm
March 22, 2010 - Zombies and Rube Goldberg Machines
March 15, 2010 - Ordinary Consequences of Extraordinary Recklessness
March 8, 2010 - The Rubber hits the Road
February 28, 2010 - Hussman Funds 12/09 Semi-Annual Report
February 22, 2010 - Notes on a Difficult Employment Outlook
February 16, 2010 - The Federal Reserve's Exit Strategy: Unlegislated Bailout of Fannie and Freddie
February 8, 2010 - Cautiously Pessimistic
February 1, 2010 - Reported Earnings versus "Owner Earnings"
January 25, 2010 - A Blueprint for Financial Reform
January 19, 2010 - Inflation Myth and Reality
January 11, 2010 - Green Shoots, Weak Roots
January 4, 2010 - Timothy Geithner Meets Vladimir Lenin
December 28, 2009 - Brief Holiday Update
December 21, 2009 - Clarity and Valuation
December 14, 2009 - Decidedly Speculative
December 7, 2009 - Credit Crises Generally Require Multi-Year Adjustments
November 30, 2009 - Reckless Myopia
November 23, 2009 - Alert for Tanks
November 16, 2009 - "Should Come as No Shock to Anyone"
November 9, 2009 - The Second Wave Begins
November 2, 2009 - Risk Management and Convex Return Profiles
October 26, 2009 - Rumors of the Death of the Credit Crisis Are Greatly Exaggerated
October 19, 2009 - The Stock Market Has Never Been This (Intermediate-Term) Overbought
October 11, 2009 - Zen Lessons in Market Analysis
October 5, 2009 - Defensive, With a Measure of Equanimity
September 28, 2009 - We're Speaking Japanese Without Knowing It
September 21, 2009 - Strenuously Overbought
September 14, 2009 - Conditional Expectations and September Seasonality
September 8, 2009 - Showtime for Visible Roots and Fruit
August 31, 2009 - A Tale of Two Data Sets
August 24, 2009 - Bernanke Sees a Recovery - How Would He Know?
August 17, 2009 - Growth in "Potential GDP" Shows Limited Potential
August 10, 2009 - Post-Crash Dynamics
August 3, 2009 - Profiting from the Tooth Fairy
July 27, 2009 - Biting A Bullet
July 20, 2009 - Tending Seeds - Reacting, Responding, Planting, and Watering
July 13, 2009 - High Loan-to-Value + Trigger Event (Unemployment) = Default
July 6, 2009 - Brief Holiday Update
June 29, 2009 - Green Shoots and a Grain of Salt
June 22, 2009 - Long-Horizon Risk Aversion Creates Headwinds
June 15, 2009 - The Outlook is Not Up, But Very Widely Sideways
June 8, 2009 - Context Matters
June 1, 2009 - Anything But Academic
May 25, 2009 - Market Internals Suggest Heightened Concern
May 18, 2009 - The Destructive Implications of the Bailout - Understanding Equilibrium
May 11, 2009 - Banks Pass Stress Test - Regulators Fail Ethics Test
May 4, 2009 - Comfortable with Uncertainty
April 27, 2009 - Money Doesn't Grow on Trees
April 20, 2009 - Wishful Thinking
April 13, 2009 - Green Shoots over Thin Ice
April 6, 2009 - Fighting Recklessness with Recklessness
March 30, 2009 - On the Urgency of Restructuring Bank and Mortgage Debt, and of Abandoning Toxic Asset Purchases
March 23, 2009 - Fed and Treasury - Putting off Hard Choices with Easy Money (and Probable Chaos)
March 16, 2009 - Lowering the Sights for Profit Margin Recovery
March 9, 2009 - Buckle Up.
February 28, 2009 - Hussman Funds 12/08 Semi-Annual Report
February 23, 2009 - The Economy Needs Coordination, Not Money, From the Government
February 17, 2009 - How to Climb Out of the Global Financial Hole
February 9, 2009 - There is No Substitute for Mortgage Debt Restructuring
February 2, 2009 - The GDP Deflator Takes a Hit
January 26, 2009 - Okun's Law, Ockham's Razor, and Economic Stimulus
January 19, 2009 - Market Action Abruptly Signals Renewed Caution
January 12, 2009 - The Long-Term Gets Shorter
January 5, 2009 - Portfolio Rebalancing - Don't Ignore Duration
December 29, 2008 - Brief Holiday Update
December 22, 2008 - The Dollar Crisis Begins
December 15, 2008 - Recognition, Fear and Revulsion
December 8, 2008 - Ambiguous Conditions Warrant Moderation
December 1, 2008 - Wheat from Chaff
November 24, 2008 - The Cornerstone of Capitalism
November 17, 2008 - The Stock Market is Not in "Uncharted Territory"
November 10, 2008 - How Low, How Bad, How Long?
November 3, 2008 - Value Dinosaurs
October 27, 2008 - Risk Management and Hooke's Law
October 20, 2008 - Why Warren Buffett is Right (and Why Nobody Cares)
October 13, 2008 - Four Magic Words - "We Are Providing Capital"
October 6, 2008 - The Beginning of Wisdom
September 29, 2008 - You Can't Rescue the Financial System If You Can't Read a Balance Sheet
September 22, 2008 - An Open Letter to the U.S. Congress Regarding the Current Financial Crisis
September 15, 2008 - Lehman - Only the Stock and Bondholders Should Expect Losses (not Customers)
September 8, 2008 - Deja Vu (Again)
August 31, 2008 - Hussman Funds 2008 Annual Report
August 25, 2008 - Credit Risk Spreading Beyond Financials
August 18, 2008 - Something is About to Give
August 11, 2008 - Nervous Bunny
August 5, 2008 - The Risk of Conceding Recession
July 28, 2008 - Bagehot's Rule and the Cost of Being "Technically Insolvent"
July 21, 2008 - How the War, Tax Cuts and the Swaps Market
Debased the U.S. Financial System
July 14, 2008 - The 2% Solution
July 7, 2008 - The Outlook for Inflation and the Likelihood of $60 Oil
June 30, 2008 - Projected Long-Term Market Returns are Still Tame
June 23, 2008 - No Capitulation
June 16, 2008 - Fed to Markets: "We Ain't Got to Show You No
Stinking Credibility"
June 9, 2008 - The Fed's Policy Rule: Regret-Minimax
June 2, 2008 - Wall Street Decides to Close Its Ears and Hum
May 27, 2008 - A Clue from Contango
May 19, 2008 - Poor Fundamentals with Borderline Market Action
May 12, 2008 - Round Two - Home Price Erosion
May 5, 2008 - Deja Vu
April 28, 2008 - Watching Ringside for Round Two
April 21, 2008 - Intentionally Avoiding the "Risk Trade"
April 14, 2008 - Which "Inning" of the Mortgage Crisis Are We In?
April 7, 2008 - Bear Stearns' Customers Were Never At Risk
March 31, 2008 - What Congress and Investors Should Understand About the Bear Stearns Deal
March 24, 2008 - Why is Bear Stearns Trading at $6 Instead of $2?
March 17, 2008 - The Fed Can Provide Liquidity, But Not Solvency
March 10, 2008 - Recession, Far More Foreclosures, and
Eventually, Commodity Weakness
March 3, 2008 - Hussman Funds 12/07 Semi-Annual Report
February 25, 2008 - Secular Bears
February 19, 2008 - How Canst Thou Know Thy Counterparty When Thou Knowest Not Thine Self?
February 11, 2008 - Watching for Audit Delays and "Qualified" Opinions
February 3, 2008 - A Writeoff Recession and a Dollar Crisis
January 28, 2008 - Broadening Instability
January 21, 2008 - A Mixed Bag of Market Conditions
January 14, 2008 - Past, Present and Future
January 7, 2008 - Minding the Hinges on Pandora's Box
December 31, 2007 - Brief Holiday Update
December 24, 2007 - Vanishing Act: Are the Fed and the ECB Misleading Investors About "Liquidity"?
December 17, 2007 - A Little Acid Test for Fed "Liquidity"
December 10, 2007 - Overbought in an Unfavorable Market Climate
December 4, 2007 - An Irrelevant Fed: Thimbles of Water in a Forest Fire
November 26, 2007 - Financial Markets Anticipate Recessions Before They are Obvious
November 19, 2007 - Critical Point
November 12, 2007 - Expecting A Recession
November 5, 2007 - Pump It Up
October 29, 2007 - A Fragile Dependence on Foreign Capital
October 22, 2007 - Forget the Lesson, Learn it Twice
October 15, 2007 - Warning - Examine All Risk Exposures
October 8, 2007 - The Bag Will Not Inflate, and Liquidity Will Not Be Flowing
October 1, 2007 - Recession Risks - Increasing but not Decisive
September 24, 2007 - Show Me The Money!
September 17, 2007 - The Fed: Magical Fairies and Pixie Dust
September 10, 2007 - Waiting for the Witch Doctor
September 3, 2007 - The Problem with Financials
August 27, 2007 - Knowing What Ain't True
August 20, 2007 - Long Term Evidence on the Fed Model
and Forward Operating P/E Ratios
August 13, 2007 - Hardly a Bailout
August 6, 2007 - Strong Economic Optimism (... is a contrary indicator)
July 30, 2007 - Market Internals Go Negative
July 23, 2007 - Garbage and Potatoes
July 16, 2007 - A Who's Who of Awful Times to Invest
July 9, 2007 - Interest Rate Intuition
July 2, 2007 - An Unacceptable (But Instructive) Model
June 25, 2007 - Ripe Fruit
June 18, 2007 - New Economy, or Unfinished Cycle?
June 11, 2007 - Fragile Conditions
June 4, 2007 - Pretty Pictures
May 29, 2007 - Inflation, Correlation and Market Valuation
May 21, 2007 - How Much Do Interest Rates Affect the Fair Value of Stocks?
May 14, 2007 - An Optimistic Route to a Poor Market Outlook
May 7, 2007 - Spot the Pigeon
April 30, 2007 - Double Counting
April 23, 2007 - Foxes Minding the Henhouse
April 16, 2007 - Going Full Cycle (PDF)
April 9, 2007 - Investors Need Not Be Bearish to Hedge Risk
April 2 , 2007 - Fair Value - 40% Off (Not a Forecast, But Don't Rule it Out)
March 26, 2007 - Clear Statements and Rose Colored Glasses
March 19, 2007 - Beyond Sub-Prime
March 12, 2007 - The "Money Flow" Myth and the "Liquidity" Trap
March 5, 2007 - Rapunzel Gets a Trim
February 27, 2007 - Hussman Funds Semi-Annual Report 12/31/06
February 20, 2007 - Rip Van Winkle
February 12, 2007 - Baron Rothschild
February 5, 2007 - It's All Fun and Games Until Someone Gets Hurt
January 29, 2007 - Bayes' Rule
January 22, 2007 - Elevated Earnings
January 15, 2007 - Hazardous Ovoboby!
January 8, 2007 - Performance Analysis
January 2, 2007 - Thin Risk Premiums
December 26, 2006 - Lopsided Sentiment and Unfounded Optimism
December 18, 2006 - Performance Notes, Ouija Boards, Bollinger Bands, and Valuations
December 11, 2006 - Phase Three: The Speculative Blowoff
December 4, 2006 - Goldilocks' Wake-Up Call
November 27, 2006 - Why Warren Buffett Plays Bridge
November 18, 2006 - When Value Mavens Lag
November 13, 2006 - Low Yields
November 6, 2006 - Chasing the Bull's Tail
October 30, 2006 - Re-Defining the Standard of Value
October 23, 2006 - Skeptical, Limited Benefit of the Doubt
October 16, 2006 - Temporary versus Permanent Returns
October 9, 2006 - Outside the Oval
October 2, 2006 - Superstition and the Fed
September 25, 2006 - Is Inflation Really Falling?
September 18, 2006 - A House Built on Sand
September 10, 2006 - Magnifying the Trivial
September 4, 2006 - 2006 Annual Report
August 28, 2006 - Signs of a Downturn
August 21, 2006 - Data Dependent
August 14, 2006 - What Greenspan Had that Bernanke Doesn't
August 7, 2006 - Premises & Implications: Stagflation,
Falling Stocks, Weak Profits, Flat Bonds, and a Dollar Crisis
July 31, 2006 - Anatomy of a Punchline
July 24, 2006 - Independent Thought
July 17, 2006 - Tornado Warnings
July 10, 2006 - There's No Such Thing as Idle Cash on the Sidelines
July 3, 2006 - Fed Watching - Just Say No
June 26, 2006 - Recession Risks are No Longer Dormant (but not yet acute)
June 19, 2006 - S&P; 500 Fair Value Below 800?
June 12, 2006 - Ben Bernanke and Meat Powder
June 5, 2006 - The End of Excellent Earnings
May 30, 2006 - Apples to Elephants
May 22, 2006 - Textbook Warnings
May 15, 2006 - Yet
May 8, 2006 - Avoiding the Big Loss
May 1, 2006 - Nickel Slots
April 24, 2006 - Hostile Trends
April 17, 2006 - Market Action and Information
April 10, 2006 - Rich Valuations and Rising Yields
April 3, 2006 - Garbage Stocks
March 27, 2006 - The Big Chair
March 20, 2006 - Everything Looks Good at the Top of the Channel
March 13, 2006 - Reversal of Fortune
March 6, 2006 - Cost of Hedging
February 28, 2006 - Hussman Funds 2005 Semiannual Report
February 21, 2006 - Very Nicely Swept!
February 13, 2006 - The Information is in the Divergences
February 6, 2006 - Flying Wallendas
January 30, 2006 - Where Else are Investors Going to Go?
January 23, 2006 - Contrarian Bandwagons
January 16, 2006 - Overvalued, Overbought, Overbullish
January 9, 2006 - Do P/E Ratios Expand Once the Fed is Done?
January 3, 2006 - Prospects for 2006
December 26, 2005 - Brief Holiday Update
December 19, 2005 - What Happens When the Fed is Finished?
December 12, 2005 - A "Durable Sense of Doom"
December 5, 2005 - Forest from the Trees
November 28, 2005 - "Whipsaw" written all over it
November 21, 2005 - Diminishing Participation and Garbage Stocks
November 14, 2005 - Niznaya brodo, nyeh suizio vwodo
November 7, 2005 - Speculating on Speculation
October 31, 2005 - Daily Action, Noise, and Ben Bernanke
October 24, 2005 - Investors Respond to Fear, not Risk
October 17, 2005 - Return on Equity
October 10, 2005 - Wednesday's Breakdowns
October 3, 2005 - Seasonal Tendencies
September 26, 2005 - The Moon is in the Sky
September 19, 2005 - Monkey Logic
September 12, 2005 - The S&P 500 as a Stream of Payments
September 6, 2005 - We Could Get a Recession Out of This
August 29, 2005 - The 40-Year Forecast for the S&P; 500 Index
August 22, 2005 - Omitted Variables
August 15, 2005 - Hussman Funds 2005 Annual Report
August 8, 2005 - Profit Margins, Labor Costs, and Earnings Growth
August 1, 2005 - Late-Stage Bull Markets
July 25, 2005 - China Revalues
July 18, 2005 - Skews and Smiles
July 11, 2005 - Explaining isn't Justifying
July 5, 2005 - Gestalts and Aunt Minnies
June 27, 2005 - It Ain't Gonna Happen That Way
June 20, 2005 - Fluid Dynamics, Boundary Conditions... and Google
June 13, 2005 - Google, iPods and George Foreman Grills
June 6, 2005 - Recession? Risks Developing, but Not Just Yet
May 31, 2005 - Bull and Bear Markets Exist Only in Hindsight
May 23, 2005 - Cross Currents
May 16, 2005 - Sleight of Hand
May 9, 2005 - A Fine Line
May 2, 2005 - The Sound of One Hand Clapping
April 25, 2005 - The First Sale is Often the Best Sale
April 18, 2005 - How Hedging Works
April 11, 2005 - Bang a Gong
April 4, 2005 - Why Do Stock and Bond Prices Fluctuate?
March 28, 2005 - By a Thread
March 21, 2005 - Don't Discount Discounted Dividends
March 14, 2005 - Getting Un-Specific: Point Forecasts vs Probability Distributions
March 7, 2005 - Triumph of Low Expectations
February 28, 2005 - Brief Market Climate Update
February 22, 2005 - The Likely Range of Market Returns in the Coming Decade
February 14, 2005 - Bad Finance
February 7, 2005 - Useless Risk
January 31, 2005 - Cheap Vol
January 24, 2005 - Starting Valuations Matter
January 18, 2005 - Market Action as Information
January 10, 2005 - Fallacy of Composition
January 3, 2005 - Brief Holiday Update
December 27, 2004 - Risk Management is Generous
December 20, 2004 - Is the Dollar Really Overvalued?
December 13, 2004 - Volatility, Complacency, and Emerging Risks
December 6, 2004 - Why the Current Account Deficit Matters
November 29, 2004 - Watching Breadth
November 22, 2004 - Canaries in the Coalmine
November 15, 2004 - Ignoring Equilibrium
November 8, 2004 - An Absence of Moderates
November 1, 2004 - A New Era of Market Efficiency?
October 25, 2004 - Law of Large Numbers
October 18, 2004 - If Humans Only Had One Hand, 7 Would Be 12
October 11, 2004 - Earnings Shortfalls
October 4, 2004 - Paying the Fiddler
September 27, 2004 - Valuations and Risk-Adjusted Returns
September 20, 2004 - Economic Risks are Increasing
September 13, 2004 - Time Inconsistency
September 7, 2004 - Helicopter Money
August 30, 2004 - There Is No Such Thing As Free Money
August 23, 2004 - Google is Probably Worth About $24 a Share
(over and above IPO proceeds)
August 16, 2004 - Mind the Gap
August 9, 2004 - Local Risks vs Extended Risks
August 2, 2004 - Strategies for an Inefficient Market
July 26, 2004 - Second Wind
July 19, 2004 - How to Sail
July 12, 2004 - The Physics of Bounce
July 6, 2004 - Stronger Earnings are Likely. So What?
June 28, 2004 - Eyeing the Target
June 21, 2004 - You Don't Need a Weatherman
June 14, 2004 - The Fed Bone's Connected to the Tax and Spend Bones
June 7, 2004 - The Cicada Dance
June 1, 2004 - Do Valuations "Feel" About Right?
May 24, 2004 - Breaking Monetary Policy Into Pieces
May 17, 2004 - Stocks are Not Thermometers
May 10, 2004 - Managing a Portfolio of Risks
May 3, 2004 - It's Dark, and We're Wearing Sunglasses
April 26, 2004 - Market Climate - Increasingly Fragile
April 19, 2004 - Perception is Reality
April 12, 2004 - Hyperactive Sheep
April 5, 2004 - Aristotelian Tragedy
March 29, 2004 - How We Live Our Days - Is How We Live Our Lives
March 22, 2004 - A Gathering Storm
March 15, 2004 - The Art of Reading Tea Leaves
March 8, 2004 - Theme Trading
March 1, 2004 - Accounting Happiness
February 23, 2004 - Buy-and-Hold For the Duration?
February 17, 2004 - Too Much of a Good Thing
February 9, 2004 - Eat More Hay. Ten Million Horses Can't be Wrong
February 2, 2004 - George Parker's Rules of the Game
January 26, 2004 - The Art of Seamanship
January 19, 2004 - Spinning Muons
January 12, 2004 - Blame Keynes
January 5, 2004 - A Lemon with a Nice Paint Job is Still a Lemon
December 29, 2003 - Brief Holiday Update
December 22, 2003 - Bait & Tackle
December 15, 2003 - Unrepresentative Samples
December 8, 2003 - Natural Consequences
December 1, 2003 - Rational Expectations
November 24, 2003 - Force of Habit
November 17, 2003 - Recipe for Trouble
November 10, 2003 - The U.S. Productivity Miracle (Made in China)
November 2, 2003 - Deconstructing GDP
October 26, 2003 - Theory of Relativity
October 19, 2003 - Learning the Wrong Lesson
October 12, 2003 - Analysis versus Superstition
October 5, 2003 - New Reports
September 28, 2003 - New Information Can't Be Predicted
September 21, 2003 - Speculative Merit without Investment Merit
September 14, 2003 - First, Do No Harm
September 7, 2003 - General Equilibrium
September 1, 2003 - Unusual Valuation
Hussman Weekly Market Comment - Third Quarter 2003 (blog format)
Hussman Weekly Market Comment - Second Quarter 2003 (blog format)
Hussman Weekly Market Comment - First Quarter 2003 (blog format)
Hussman Weekly Market Comment - Fourth Quarter 2002 (blog format)
Hussman Weekly Market Comment - Third Quarter 2002 (blog format)
Hussman Weekly Market Comment - Second Quarter 2002 (blog format)
Hussman Weekly Market Comment - First Quarter 2002 (blog format)
Hussman Weekly Market Comment - Fourth Quarter 2001 (blog format)
Hussman Weekly Market Comment - Third Quarter 2001 (blog format)
Hussman Weekly Market Comment - Second Quarter 2001 (blog format)
Hussman Weekly Market Comment - First Quarter 2001 (blog format)
Hussman Weekly Market Comment - Fourth Quarter 2000 (blog format)

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