Project on Middle East Democracy

Project on Middle East Democracy
The POMED Wire


Tunisia: Invest in Emerging Actors with a Democratic Mindset

January 20th, 2011 by Cole

After decades of oppression, Tunisia was ripe for revolution and the notion of “Arab exceptionalism” has been discredited, writes Nabila Hamza, a Tunisian gender-equality activist who is currently the President of the Amman-based Foundation for the Future Although Arab public perception of the possibility for change has shifted dramatically, Arab regimes will likely placate the frustrations of the masses through controlled political openings and reinstating or raising economic subsidies.  The U.S. and Arab civil society must seize this crucial moment to reinvigorate the public discourse to press for real political change in the region.

See also the previous contributions to the Democracy Digest-POMED Tunisia symposium from Amr HamzawySteven HeydemannLarry DiamondArun KapilShadi Hamid, and Kamran Bokhari.

What are the prospects of the Jasmine Revolution deteriorating into another Tulip Revolution – a power shift within the elites rather than a genuine democratic transition?

Personally, I’m optimistic about the prospects of a positive transformation after the popular revolt which led to the fall of the Ben Ali government.

I think there is consensus in Tunisia that the country is ripe for a more inclusive political system.  The demand for change, which is still ongoing, is the result of a historic accumulation of political resistance that eventually reached a critical mass. This trend was nurtured by a number of factors:

  • The comprehensive spread of education throughout the country;
  • The existence of strong trade unions throughout the country; and
  • The openness of Tunisian society and the influence of Europe (through direct personal contacts, media, cultural exchange, education models, etc.)

These factors induced the spontaneous revolution in response to the decades of oppression. The extremely difficult economic and social conditions brought together a large segment of the well-educated Tunisians with ordinary laymen to demand a new model of governance.

The genie is out of the bottle, and I think it will be very difficult now to suppress the feeling that we Tunisians can do as well as others in the region.  All the talk of “Arab exceptionalism” is nonsense, and demeaning and insulting for the Tunisian nation 

Can we expect a 1989-style democratic tsunami?

It’s very difficult to predict what will happen in other Arab countries. First, the Jasmine Revolution will have to formulate a functional system of democratic governance that is capable of responding to the expectations of all sectors of the population.  This includes those from the working class living in disadvantaged regions, where discontent had been simmering for years and where the popular uprising began.  Second, the new democratic regime will have to successfully defend itself from powerful enemies abroad that have no interest in seeing a democratic reform process succeed in the region.

I’m convinced that the shift in public perception as a result of the Jasmine Revolution has been transformative. It has demonstrated that the pessimism on the significance and potential of social movements and civil society in the Arab world is baseless. That notions of “Arab exceptionalism” ought not to last forever. That it’s possible to have genuine popular movements, which are not master-minded and remotely-controlled by outside forces with a radical ideological agenda.   

Is there a threat that it will prompt intensified repression by the region’s regimes?

Each country has its own specificities, its internal fault lines, and it’s therefore difficult to predict now how regimes, which feel clearly more threatened by the growing popular dissatisfaction, will react in the months and years to come

I’m more inclined to predict that Arab regimes will enact economic measures such as reinstating subsidies in order to mitigate the more immediate causes of economic discontent.  This could possibly be coupled with a very controlled opening in the public sphere to try and reduce the mounting pressure of public opinion.  

What should be done – by the Obama administration, Western democracies, by democracy assistance groups – to help Tunisia’s democratic forces/civil society push through to a genuine transition?

This event has completely delegitimized the pessimism cast on popular movements for change in the region. The dissatisfaction of the Arab citizen is growing and – if this feeling is metamorphosing into despair and/or a longing for new solutions – in many cases it will lead to people seeking new avenues for real change.

At the Foundation for the Future, we never stopped believing in the need to sustain local civil society organizations (CSOs) and activists (even while they have been working in an increasingly constrained environment) because civil society plays a key role in advancing socio-political education to empower the people. In addition, trade unions need to be rejuvenated, as they have an important role to play as well.

We have also worked to expose Arab CSOs to best practices from other countries which have been going through a process of political reform. For example, we have linked Arab activists with members of civil society working on civil oversight of the security sector in Indonesia, Africa, and other Latin America countries.

In conclusion, let’s not lose hope, and let’s keep investing in emerging social and political actors with a democratic mindset in the region. These efforts are not a waste of time and resources, they will pay out.  That makes it all the more important for the U.S. to keep alive a discourse with an emphasis on reform.  I was in Doha for the 7th Forum for the Future and I was very impressed by the words of Secretary Hillary Clinton against the growing menace of “corrupt institutions and a stagnant political order” in the Arab word. Indeed, these are precisely the right words to be said to the ruling elites of the region.


Posted in Civil Society, Democracy Promotion, Foreign Aid, NGOs, Public Opinion, Reform, Tunisia, Tunisia Symposium, Unions |

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