As we watch the current demonstrations in Egypt and Jordan, and as Tunisia moves to a new phase in its history, much is being made of American ties to these leaders.  As the “Arab street” watches what is transpiring, it should note that the US and other western countries are letting these events play out even given real concerns over the impact this will have on geopolitics, global security and a shaky world economy.

Yet, as the governments and militaries of Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan show some restraint in handling these protests, one has to reflect on the fact that one of the most sophisticated populaces in the world, the Iranian people, were not shown the same courtesy by their regime.  Rather, the Supreme Leader, his allies, and his loyal guardsman and militias used and continue to use every opportunity to shut down peaceful protests and threaten the opposition.

Let’s hope the Supreme Leader and his allies realize that what is transpiring in the region is a revolt against autocracies writ large.  If Iran wants to become a real regional power and take what it believes is its rightful place in the international order, then it should unleash the greatest power it has – the power of its people.  After all, it is this Persian power that has contributed so much to world civilization and continues to garner international respect today.

Partnership for a Secure America’s Congressional Fellowship Program is now accepting applications for the Spring 2011 session. This highly selective program is for Congressional staff interested in generating dialogue, cooperative action and relationships to advance bipartisan action on national security and foreign policy issues. Through training, networking, and exclusive activities, this unique program aims to build a “next generation” of foreign policy and security experts equipped to respect differences, build common ground and achieve US national interests. The deadline to apply is March 11, 2011. For further information about the program, and to apply, click here.

The Obama Administration announced Monday that it asked Partnership for a Secure America Advisory Board member, Ambassador Frank Wisner, to travel to Egypt to meet with President Hosni Mubarak and other Egyptian political leaders. A former Ambassador to Cairo (1986-91), Ambassador Wisner brings considerable expertise and strong relationships in the Middle East to bear on this current assignment.  Deeply respected for his contributions to American diplomacy and peace-building in some of the world’s toughest neighborhoods, Wisner has served in both Democratic and Republican Administrations, most recently as President George W. Bush’s special envoy responsible for negotiating Kosovo independence.

While doing some winter cleaning recently, I discovered an October 1970 edition of Life magazine I had purchased from a Manhattan street vendor some years back.  The cover story on the sudden death of Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser featured a photo of crowds swarming to the funeral of the controversial leader, who was, for them, a symbol of dignity.  More than forty years later, the scenes from Egypt are strikingly different, but echoes of that same desire for dignity remain strong.

To many watching from afar, the images of Egyptian protesters are equally compelling and mysterious.  Their cause seems just, having more to do with outrage over bad governance than ideology, but “who are they?” has become a common query with regard to the disparate group of protesters.  That leaves the question of what comes as far from clear, which makes you want to sit on the edge of your seat to see what happens but also leaves you wondering whether you’ll be sorry you did.

While Tunisia’s so-called Jasmine Revolution helped to inspire Egypt’s so-called Lotus Revolution, more consequential is what alternative model emerges for a transitional democracy.  Part of the fear associated with the what-comes-next scenario comes from remembering past negative models like Gaza.  On the flip side, though, is Turkey, a secular democracy in a Muslim majority state.  Moreover, the country has become an increasingly influential player on the world stage, and gained prestige in the Middle East for doing so.  And as the Wall Street Journal noted, Turkish policymakers see the potential to “enhance its diplomatic influence” even further.
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Travelling in the Middle East over the past week has been extraordinary, to say the least. In a region where change is measured in incremental adjustments over decades, the days of rage and anger should not be interpreted as anything but transformational.

Observers have been tracking the angst of this new generation for about a decade.  The question was always where and when the teapot would sing.  Without any other release mechanism, overflowing anxiety simply funneled to the streets.

Although the activism in Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, and Yemen reflect the distinctiveness of those particular countries, some significant common denominators thread through the region.  First, the demonstrations reflect a chronic angst stemming from the challenges of living in authoritarian states beset by stagnation and corruption; political, economic, and even social, cultural and religious repression, to a noticeable degree.  The call to action came not from political leaders but from frustration cutting through the younger set.
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I have written before on this blog about the dangerous assumptions that currently haunt thinking in the beltway, and the State of the Union address made this apparition rise again.  Specifically, that we will start withdrawing troops from Afghanistan in July, by the end of this year we will leave a stable Iraq, and all troops will be home by 2015.

Wars are remarkably costly – about $1 trillion between Iraq and Afghanistan thus far, to say nothing of the human costs.  And those costs continue once everyone is home from Iraq and Afghanistan.  Equipment will have to be repaired, replaced, or modernized.  Health care costs don’t end for the wounded, including those with post traumatic stress or traumatic brain injuries, nor should our obligation to these heroes.  And the U.S. military will still be deployed around the world engaging partners, and even potentially engaged in wars unknown (when has the world ever stopped for us to catch our breath?). (more…)

Some teachers in junior high school would allow students to sit wherever they wanted in the classroom.  Whenever this was the case, undoubtedly we would quickly group ourselves with our friends.   The jocks sat with other jocks.  The nerds sat with other nerds (generally my group).  And the heavy metal thrashers sat with other heavy metal thrashers.  As you can imagine, there wasn’t much communication between the groups.  Other teachers assigned seats.  All the cliques got mixed up and we were forced to interact with people that  weren’t in our normal social circles.  Although it was uncomfortable at first, I sometimes found myself learning a bit about the people around me.  I learned to appreciate Metallica and the identify who was playing in the lineup for the weekend’s football game – not life changing discoveries, but important nonetheless in junior high interactions.

It turns out that the seating arrangements of the upcoming State of the Union address present a situation that is not altogether different from a junior high classroom.  Our elected representatives will be faced with a simple question:  is it better to sit with my close friends or reach out to to someone who isn’t in my clique?

Traditionally in the tightly choreographed State of the Union address, everyone plays their part.  Democrats sit with Democrats on one side of the room.  Republicans sit with Republicans on the other side of the room.  Democrats stand and clap at their signature issues and Republicans do the same for their issues.  Everyone plays their part – a bit like junior high.

Recently, however, something changed.  After the tragedy in Tuscon, we’ve all been rethinking the roles that we play.  There is a growing realization that there is lack of civility in our public life.

Ordinary Americans work with, socialize with, and go to church with people of many different political beliefs.  Unfortunately, our political discourse has been polarized by right wing and left wing media outlets that encourage people to see issues in black and white terms.   This harmful discourse was characterized by the outburst of Representatives Joe Wilson who exclaimed, “you lie!”, during President Obama’s last State of the Union address.  We see and hear it every day in the partisan attacks on cable news and talk radio.  (more…)

Walking in to a meeting of Middle East civil society activists in London last week, I expected the usual somber, intellectual examination of how the increase in recent political upheavals was negatively affecting respect for human rights and civil liberties. Renewed violence in Iraq; another delay in installing winners of the faulty elections in Afghanistan; Egyptians lighting themselves on fire; Hezbollah bringing down the Lebanese government; a reconstituted Israeli government reflecting the disintegration of the peace movement; more violence in Gaza; and the overthrow of the chronic Ben Ali regime in Tunisia.

Instead of the usual angst and anguish, these usually serious scholars exhibited a child-like, back-slapping giddiness. The primary instigator was no less than the Brother Leader and “Guide of the First of September Great Revolution of the Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya.”

In a televised address this week, Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi railed against the online world of Facebook, YouTube, and the blogosphere – citing the internet as helping to bring down Ben Ali’s two decade rule in Tunisia, saying that he thought the dictator would continue to run Tunisia “for life.” (more…)

PSA Board of Directors member Dr. Andrew K. Semmel recently co-authored a new Stanley Foundation report with Jack Boureston, managing director at FirstWatch International, called The IAEA and Nuclear Security: Trends and Prospects. The report concludes that the international community should strengthen the role of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The authors state that adequate international nuclear security standards to prevent non-state actors from acquiring nuclear materials are absent. Currently, the international community has only “a diverse patchwork of initiatives that, when combined, constitute an awkward architecture of prevention, detection, and response.” The report urges the adoption of an international agreement to lay out minimally acceptable standards and create increased international coordination, monitoring, and reporting. The authors suggest that, while no international organization is currently vested with the level of responsibility for nuclear security functions to achieve these standards, the IAEA is “best positioned to fill that role.” To download the full report, click here.

PSA joins with President Obama and Congressional Leadership in condemning the attack on U.S. Representative Gabrielle Giffords, her staff and the constituents whose participation in Saturday’s event demonstrated the values that make the United States a strong democracy. We mourn the loss of Christina-Taylor Green, Dorothy Morris, John M. Roll, Phyllis Schneck, Dorwin Stoddard, and Gabriel Zimmerman. We hope that the behaviors exhibited by these Americans will remind us all that there are constructive and mutually respectful ways of addressing issues and differences. Our thoughts and prayers are with the families of those who were lost or wounded in this senseless attack.