POMED Notes: “The View From the Middle East– The 2010 Arab Public Opinion Poll”
August 6th, 2010 by Jennifer
The Brookings Institution hosted a presentation by Shibley Telhami, Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland and Senior Fellow at Brookings, on the 2010 Arab Public Opinion Poll. Kenneth Pollack, Senior Fellow and Director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, moderated the event.
(POMED’s full notes continue below, or view them as a pdf.)
Kenneth Pollack opened by explaining the purpose of the presentation, saying, “One of the things that we have been striving to do at Brookings is to help bridge the gap between the Arab and Muslim world and the United States of America.” To build an understanding of developments in the Middle East, the Brookings Institution has focused a great deal on public opinion polls conducted in the region, Pollack said.
Shibley Telhami emphasized that this was not a Muslim opinion poll, but rather an Arab opinion poll, based on six states in the region: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Lebanon, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates. The poll– which surveyed 3,976 people– covered a number of topics, including international issues, media, identity, and political views.
Moving on to discuss the findings of the poll themselves, Telhami showed that President Obama’s popularity among Arabs has significantly decreased, with 20% of respondents expressing a positive view of Obama, 16% neutral, and 62% negative, versus 45% positive, 28% neutral, and 23% negative in 2009. He explained that no significant evidence has ever existed that Arabs liked Obama for who he was, arguing that Obama’s popularity was based on the fact that his policies were far more favorable to Arab states than those of former president George W. Bush. Telhami thus emphasized that Arabs were responding to Obama’s policies, not his background.
Highlighting the areas of U.S. Foreign Policy with which Arabs are most disappointed – the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, Iraq war, attitude towards Islam, Afghanistan, human rights, spreading democracy, and economic assistance –Telhami noted that 61% of the survey’s participants said that they find the Palestinian issue the most discouraging, while the Iraq war came second with 27%. Regarding the latter issue, Telhami explained that Arab opinion was more favorable on this point in 2009 because of Obama’s staunch opposition to the war and his commitment to withdraw American troops. However, Arab publics haves since blamed the U.S. for the political stalemate that has prevailed in Iraq since the March elections, resulting in an unfavorable view of Obama himself.
Telhami also noted that only 4% of all those surveyed regarded the war in Afghanistan as a major disappointment. According to Telhami, this statistic reveals that Afghanistan is not the “prism” through which Arabs evaluate American policy, but rather represents only one source of their opinion.
When asked which of the U.S. government’s policies or positions most pleased them, the majority of those surveyed pointed to the administration’s general “attitude towards Islam.” Asked “what two steps by the U.S. would improve your views of the U.S. most,” 54% said an “Israeli/Palestinian peace agreement”; 45% indicated “withdrawal from Iraq”; and 13% responded with “pushing more to spread democracy.” Additionally, most of the participants regarded protection of Israel and control of oil as the two most important driving forces for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.
One question asked, “What do you believe motivates Israeli policies in the region and American support for these policies?” 47% responded that Israel decides on its own interests and influences the U.S.; 20% said that Israel is a tool of American foreign policy; and 33% replied that the U.S. and Israel have mutual interests. Focusing specifically on Palestinian internal politics, the poll asked, “In the current conflict among Palestinians, with whom do you sympathize most?”. The results showed that with 13%, Hamas received the most support for a single group, while Fatah only received 7%. Nevertheless, the majority of those surveyed – 70% — said “both to some extent.” Additionally, 10% wanted to see a Hamas government in Palestine, 7% supported a Fatah government, and 53% would rather see a national unity government. Telhami pointed out that these responses do not reflect Palestinian views of their own political factions, but rather views from neighboring Arab states.
Regarding Iran’s nuclear program, Telhami reported that 77% of Arabs say that Iran has a right to a nuclear program and only 20% agree that Iran should be pressured to halt nuclear enrichment. This year, 57% expressed the belief that an Iran with a nuclear weapon would produce positive outcomes in the region, while only 21% predicted the opposite. Telhami explained that “all of this is a reaction, an expression of anger” towards American foreign policy and thus highly correlated to other issues, including the U.S.’s involvement in the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Addressing the general worldview among Arabs, Telhami said that most Arabs would prefer France to play the role of a superpower in the world, while the United States was next to last, after Pakistan. Telhami characterized this outcome as unsurprising, considering that the poll indicated that respondents regarded the U.S. and Israel as the two top threats to the region, while Turkey and France were regarded as the most constructive actors. In light of recent regional developments– in particular, the attack on the Gaza flotilla –Prime Minister Recep Erdogan emerged as the most admired world leader due to his staunch criticism of Israeli actions against Palestinians, Telhami said. Hugo Chavez came in second place, followed by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Interestingly, when asked “When your government makes decisions, do you think it should base its decisions mostly on what is best for…,” 39% of the participants replied that decisions should center on what is best for Muslims; 31% said the country; 23% indicated Arab loyalty; and only 5% of those surveyed thought that decisions should serve global or international interests.
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