Meanwhile in the eurozone
Elections are exciting sometimes - time-consuming, always. We've spent so much of this week on the campaign and the manifestos, the danger is that other stories fall between the cracks.
A total shutdown of UK airspace was hard to miss, even though it had to play second fiddle yesterday to the prime ministerial debate. But a few other things have happened as well.
On Monday, you'll remember, we had more clarity on the support that might be offered to the Greeks - a third injection of clarity, you might say, adding some details to the statements that had been made in February and March.
As I suspected on Monday, the deal gave the Greeks some relief on the markets - but not much. Their debt auction on Tuesday was oversubscribed. But the price was shocking: more than 4.5% for six months' cash, 350 basis points over short-term policy rates.
With the usual clouds of official vagueness and uncertainty hanging over the deal - and some question marks about how, exactly, the eurozone loans would be approved - Greek bond yields ballooned out again, to higher than they were before the new and improved rescue package was announced.
So, the Greek prime minister was forced to go to the IMF for real yesterday. Well, he sort of went to the IMF. True to the tradition - in this saga - of informal half-moves, signals and suggestions, the Greeks have only asked for "consultations" over the possible terms of a loan.
The IMF's chief spokesperson, Caroline Atkinson, said in her briefing yesterday that the talks could "mutate" into something more formal. For now, they are talking about a deal. And the markets remain unimpressed: Greek debt has been punished again today.
The latest edition of the Economist, out today, has an excellent briefing on the Greek crisis. I recommend that anyone interested read it in full. But to give you the headlines, they have some useful guesstimates on the scale of the funding problem for Greece, and the vulnerability of European banks to a restructuring of Greek debt, let alone an outright default.
They reckon that Greece could need official help to cover 67bn euros in new debt by 2014 - more than twice the 30bn euros so far on offer. And that's on, if anything, optimistic assumptions.
Many leading institutions are staying well clear: they think today's yields don't provide enough compensation for the risk of default.
I still think a restructuring of Greek debt is more likely than not over the next few years. But the article shows just how painful that would be for other eurozone countries; more specifically, its banks.
Using the back of a fairly sophisticated envelope, the Economist reckons that eurozone banks hold nearly 60% of foreign holdings of Greek government bonds, worth maybe 70bn euros. French and German banks are especially exposed. They think UK banks hold less than 5% of it, an exposure of around 6-11bn euros,
So, in a sense, France, Germany and the rest are bailing out Greece, so they won't have to bail out their own banks at an even greater cost.
But this may not be what many economists would call a sustainable equilibrium. Especially when the ECB has just told eurozone banks they can continue to put up Greek and other low-rated sovereign debt as collateral on cheap loans. The maths on a 30bn euros loan looks much worse if it doesn't, in fact, prevent a restructuring down the road - and France and Germany end up having to bail out their banks as well.
Will the eurozone ministers meeting today (or the full Eco-Fin meeting this weekend) produce a more lasting solution? I seriously doubt it.
At bottom, the Germans have always wished they could let Greece solve its own debt problems, even if that meant some form of 'haircut' for investors, or outright default. That was what the "no bail-out" provision for the eurozone was supposed to mean.
The exposure of German banks makes this less thinkable, for now, especially with other parts of the eurozone so weak. But key German officials do not want to rule it out.
Why? Well of course they think that countries should pay for their mistakes. But the larger reason is that, once you say there is a fiscal safety net in the eurozone - you're walking yourself in the direction of fiscal union. At some level, every government of the eurozone would be on the hook for everyone else's debts.
Famously, that's where the French always wanted a single currency to lead. Equally famously, Germany did not. And we wonder why the Greek situation takes so long to resolve.
In the meantime, investors' thoughts turn, naturally, to the question of who will be next. For a while I've been talking up Portugal as the country most likely to come under serious pressure. That's partly because I know that the European Commission and the ECB think so as well.
This week Simon Johnson and Peter Boone - two seasoned watchers of financial crises - also pointed the finger at Portugal.
Watch the election, by all means, but keep your eye out for troubles in Lisbon as well.
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~16~RS~)
I'm 
© MMXI
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Stephanie - this is the real news.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8625931.stm
Goldman caught out in the end - SEC begins a war against the state of Goldman!
Apparently betting against your clients is a naughty thing - but these poor bankers didn't know it!
Couldn't happen to a nicer set of chaps.
IMF greece bailout Monday.
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Ah, Stephanie, you have made Yuri hide under table. He is say, it the end, the END, the EEEENNDDD!!!!! He is point to strange omens.
First, on TV last night is leaders debate, and Cameron head is glow like ghostly vision, while Brown is thunder as Old Testament Prophet. (Clogg is vicar.) Then is Greeks, they not bear gifts, they have no money, but they got plenty Cassandras now say it all over. Then is Iceland portent of eruptings from underworld and ghastly clouds in sky. (True, not as many bankers suiciding as we would expect – or want – but you is not have everything.)
And then incredible! Yuri, my assistant in butcher’s shop, today is cut into lamb make chop. And what is happen! There is face on chop! And number 666! And we is gasp and swoon. And when we recover, biggest surprise is that Antichrist is woman.
But then we think. When did we first hear tidings of her and her doings? Shortly after crisis is reach peak. And she is speak in tongues, so strange no one is understand.
So, she who portend End of Times is among us. She has come out of a cold land and her followers are many. And she is hockey mom with glasses. And right-wing views. No more clues, but if you are in Alaska and have access Daggers of Megido, you are know what to do.
Message to religious leaders and Satan worshipers. Sorry, no relics. I have business to run here. We sold chop to Blind Olga two hours ago. She eat by now.
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I really dont see this ending well for greece and by extension for the EU single currency nations.
Greece have such ridiculous debt rollovers planned this summer and their bond yields peaked to a new high today at over 7.4%
I love how the EU and Greence think just empty rhetoric will make this problem go away. The markets are not stupid, do politicians honestly think they can hoodwink the market into charging greece elss therefore reducing the requirement for greece to actually use the ECB/IMF loans?
No
Greece will go to the IMF, it will borrow a full 30 billion euros from the ECB and it will still not be enough as they havent got the bottle to enact the austerity plan to get their deficit sorted.
Couldn't have happened to a nicer bunch of folk to be honest, but it looks liek some serious tensions in the Union over the next few years.
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Greek default would be a good thing to see. Would like the banks to suffer in some way for the problems they have created. Would be interesting to watch the banks go to the other governments for another bailout and see how well that would sit with the public. One day the chickens will come home to roost and the political leaders and unethical bankers who caused this all will pay some price.
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Hey Steph,
Tough day for you today. Trying to concentrate on the banalities of the Election must be difficult whilst the Euro is coming apart at the seams and Goldman Sachs are finally being brought to book.
Dominos?
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http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=117:leaders-debate-democracy-turns-to-ashes-as-irrelevants-not-welcome&catid=4:speakers&Itemid=3
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The Greek predicament is an interesting example of escalating government debt getting out of control.
It makes you shudder when you think of our escalating government debt as Mr. Brown tries desparately to pretend that all is normal and the only requirement that the government must apply to resolve matters is to pursue efficiency savings! What is more he has at least 30% of the population agreeing with him.
The worrying factor in all this is that the plans of every government seem to revolve around an assumption that growth will be restored thus allowing the deficits and the debts to get gradually easier to resolve.
Economic growth requires more than just simple demand; it requires new and expanding markets which add value and thus draw forward investment. Given that recent stock market growth has been more about cash returning to buy assets previosuly dumped to generate the cash, where are those new and expanding markets these days?
There is more debt about globally than there is money to soak it up. Interest rates have to go up and any recovery will consequently stall. No wonder our politicians are keeping schtum!
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1. wotw...agreed
Greece is so yesterday
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/breaking-sec-charges-goldman-sachs-fraud-subprime-mortgages
I hope they go town on Paulson
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#5 "Greek default would be a good thing to see. Would like the banks to suffer in some way for the problems they have created"
Isnt the problem in Greece simply that the Greeks decided to spend like crazy and worry about how to pay for it all later? Sure the banks may have helped to hide the magnitude of the problem with the infamous currency swaps, but the Greeks managed to run up the debt all by themselves.
Personally I suspect that rather than an outright default there may be an agreed haircut to write the real debt down by 30-40% which would allow the Greeks a chance to work their own way out of their problems.
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"I really dont see this ending well for greece and by extension for the EU single currency nations."
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The growing pains of a young currency; this crisis will put hairs on it's chest.
'Growing pains' not to be confused with 'death rattles' which is the sound coming from sterling, a sound that will increase as we fail to tackle the deficit.
As posted before Greece GDP is tiny compared to total EU GDP. Let the IMF sort them out; this would be preferable for Greece than leaving the Eurozone.
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5. At 4:52pm on 16 Apr 2010, ghostofsichuan wrote:
Greek default would be a good thing to see. Would like the banks to suffer in some way for the problems they have created. Would be interesting to watch the banks go to the other governments for another bailout and see how well that would sit with the public. One day the chickens will come home to roost and the political leaders and unethical bankers who caused this all will pay some price.
>>>>
Well - might not be so great - UK banks and possibly UK government has exposure to Greek Sovereign Debt - default would cause more problems for us at home.
Still,
I don't think it will be allowed to default - too much rides on continued merry go round of debt - once one goes might be a domino effect.
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8. At 5:04pm on 16 Apr 2010, stanilic wrote:
The Greek predicament is an interesting example of escalating government debt getting out of control.
It makes you shudder when you think of our escalating government debt as Mr. Brown tries desparately to pretend that all is normal and the only requirement that the government must apply to resolve matters is to pursue efficiency savings! What is more he has at least 30% of the population agreeing with him.
The worrying factor in all this is that the plans of every government seem to revolve around an assumption that growth will be restored thus allowing the deficits and the debts to get gradually easier to resolve.
Economic growth requires more than just simple demand; it requires new and expanding markets which add value and thus draw forward investment. Given that recent stock market growth has been more about cash returning to buy assets previosuly dumped to generate the cash, where are those new and expanding markets these days?
There is more debt about globally than there is money to soak it up. Interest rates have to go up and any recovery will consequently stall. No wonder our politicians are keeping schtum!
>>>>
Too true. Major debt hangover will take a number of generations to clear (if ever!)
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In terms of the Greek crisis, the biggest problem the EU has is with Germany. There is so much infighting going on there: one camp favours helping Greece, the other not. Merkel is, meanwhile, stuck in Lisbon (Icelandic volcanic ash).
Meanwhile, the markets are just - well - nervous about the whole affair. And, to judge by the Economist article, have every right to be.
And yet - Estonia still wants to join the Euro in 2011. Why, one might ask?
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The mounting concern (or glee on here) over what might emerge from the civil suit against Goldman Sachs is a bit premature. They may well admit to a bit of dodgy packaging of an investment vehicle, if that happens they will get a (probably negligible) fine and a slap on the wrists. Not so much a 'don't do it again' more of a 'don't get caught again'..move along, nothing to see here...especially with so many of their previous employees ensconced in positions of authority at the Fed and with their huge lobbying power in Washington.
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I have noticed that some Ecomomist are how beginning to start and think very seriously about the latest Greek Eurozone Bail-Out package Plan, with many commentators saying that we are now approaching "The End" of The Euro as an independent currency, and that Germany might well be the First Eurozone member to jump ship.
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Thanks for the update Stephanie. I am guessing that there is some correlation between this news and the markets dropping today.
I have some sympathy for the Greek people due to the apparent endemic corruption of previous governments (forget Goldman Sachs for a moment). However, the austerity plan should have been put into place a lot sooner. The Greek people are going to have to accept a much lower standard of living pretty damn quickly.
Defaulting on their debt would be a complete non-starter as they still need to borrow heavily from the markets. The spectre of default doesn't seem to want to go away though. It is quickly becoming a self fulfilling prophecy. As the Greek bond yield ratchets its way up, the debt service becomes more and more of a burden. Investors become more worried about their ability to repay and the yield goes up even more. The lack of coherent and consistent communications doesn't help either.
It highlights the danger of not dealing with the deficit and it makes the argument about cutting 6bn pounds out of government spending in the UK look pretty pathetic. The tories were right the first time about the need to cut deeper and faster.
To anyone who thinks that a debt crisis is not likely to happen over here, think again. We have not started to approach the markets for the large quantities of cash needed yet due to QE.
It also highlights the stark contrast between the actions taken by the Irish government. Their decision to take drastic action to reduce the deficit has caused a lot of short term pain. However, they have managed to avert their own debt crisis. Maybe unemployment is a price worth paying (maybe JFH is right too).
On a side note, I would be interested to know which UK banks were stupid enough to invest in Greek bonds. Its no wonder they needed bailing out. Greek government bonds are starting to make sub prime debt look sexy.
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Goldman Sachs has charges filed against it.
Stephanie, why have you missed this story? I pointed it to you a couple of weeks ago, but you chose to ignore my hints. Why did you not connect the dots and scoop the biggest story of the financial scandal??
Best
George
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What nobody is saying is that the Germans welcomed the crisis so that the euro would fall and their exports would rise . Had they agreed to supporting Greece and subsequently the euro earlier , it wouldn't have come to this . Now the whole thing has turned around and it is about ready to bite them where it hurts . Let's see how they are going to save their banks , when Portugal and Spain come into the firing zone .
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Justin150:
You may have noticed that almost every country was over-spending during the bankers created false boom...check current national debt figures and bailout. Greece certainly has its own politics and decision-making, they just did the Greek thing and had a bigger party than the rest. There are many who believe that the end or bottom has yet to be reached while the bankers pay themselves bonuses like squirrels storing up for the winter to come.
The Euro was an invention of the bankers. It was to make it less expensive for them to transfer funds. Increased profit and reduced costs..none passed on to customers in the banking tradition of "a fool and his money are soon parted."
Now the governments hestitate to put in place the regulations and controls to prevent this from happening again.
Even a child knows not to stick their fingers on a hot stove twice...apparently governments do not.
It is astonishing that all these economic rationales and market formulas and new financial instruments are outlined in such great detail and add a couple of economists charts, when it was not really any different than what a common thief does. Exact same motivations.
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#19
"What nobody is saying is that the Germans welcomed the crisis so that the euro would fall and their exports would rise "
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This is a very simplistic argument.
A rising Euro is less bad for Germany than a falling one, the latter puts import costs (raw materials) and inflation up.
During the DM era when the DM strengthened from 11 to the £ in 1960 to 3 to the £ in 1990 exports marched ever upwards. When you make the best machine tools in the world all it means is that countries pay more for them if the exporting country's currency appreciates; they still buy.
Nice conspiracy theory though.
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#20
"The Euro was an invention of the bankers. It was to make it less expensive for them to transfer funds"
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Are you sure about this. The more currencies the more money banks make from currency exchange.
I imagine the banking class hate the Euro. A world currency would drive them to suicide.
The Euro was a political invention with the purpose of driving forward EU cohesion - fiscal union next.
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Thank goodness we were not stupid enough to join the Euro
As opposed to this being growing pains, it is the start of the current euroland as we know it
No way Greece will be able to sustain the conditions laid down by the IMF
When they leave, it wouldn't be a surprise if Portugal left
Then where is it?
Up that creek
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The SEC v Goldman Sachs is a test case, and the SEC have no chance
They couldn't even deal with the two Bear Stearns guys
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24. At 9:36pm on 16 Apr 2010, Kevinb
no chnance because???
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Look at the case where the 2 guys charged got off...the evidence was pretty damning, and they still lost
GS will have the best legal team going, and as we know, that alters the ball game somewhat
As well as unlimited funds
I do not say that is right, simply that it is inevitable
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Signs of unrest in Tory Camp over Cameron's leadership and his disastrous showing in the first debate. Latest polls show Con 33% LibDem 30% Labour 28%. Seats projection has Labour as biggest party.
Will Cameron be leader of the Party come October; bet he regrets pushing for the debates the way he did.
Early days but the most interesting election for decades.
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#22. Richard Dingle
#23. Kevinb
Shall I presume to compare and contrast:
In #22 Richard Dingle rightly makes the financial point "The more currencies the more money banks make from currency exchange. I imagine the banking class hate the Euro. A world currency would drive them to suicide."
Yet in #23 KevinB says "Thank goodness we were not stupid enough to join the Euro"
So if both are right in what they write it is logical to conclude that KevinB wants bankers to make oodles of dosh out of us!
Kevin B should explain why he loves bankers so much shouldn't he?
But as a loyal Tory, and slave of Central Office, he will be good at one-liners and sound-bites but have absolutely no substance behind the façade - the lights are on, but no-one is at home, just like their manifesto all hard cover - but nothing inside!
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Goldman Sachs are not too big to fall. If they vanished off the face of the earth would they be missed.
There is considerable anger on Main Street and people want a lynching; at the very least they are entitled to closure.
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28
Isn't it a bit late for you to be peddling your spite and venom?
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#28
"Yet in #23 KevinB says "Thank goodness we were not stupid enough to join the Euro"
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Unable to see KevinB post as I have installed anti-rant software.
The language is self-defeating 'stupid enough to join'; are we to assume that France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Germany, et al are 'stupid'.
The Euro is a young evolving currency and will surmount the current crisis. Fiscal union is a more likely scenario than Eurozone implosion.
Certain sectors of UK society want it to fail for political reasons.
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On the day that Tesco announce better than expected bumper profits and hot on the heels of spiv Dave's sound beating last night it is timely that the Greek financial crisis has saved Stephanie from setting out the unfolding weakness in Gideon's ill-founded scaremongering tax on jobs claim. Boy George is ashen faced.
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Ms. Flanders has also not said anything about this story:
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2010/pr10145.htm
The IMF wants to increase the capacity of it's lending facility from $50B to $500B, that's a factor of 10.
Reasons? And where's the money going to come from? The G20? Maybe Greece will pay for its own bailout. :)
#3 Konnolsky - LOL, you made my day.
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Thanks a lot for specifically targeting portugal. You and your friends at the NYT have probably cost my country another few million euros with all this gloom and doom. Why don't you target Belgium for example, with a much higher debt to gdp ratio of over a 100% or France with a debt/gdp ratio that's about the same?
It's become quite obvious that the markets are testing europe, which at this point doesn't have the leadership it needs. I fear that angela merkel being a nice lady doesn't understand the testosterone culture in the london and NY financial centers. Chirac and Shroeder would do a lot better.
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@21
If you had bothered to read the news , you would know that Germany's exports increased sharply in February . Do you still insist on calling my post a conspiracy theory ??
As for the parity of the Dm vs the pound from the sixties to nineties , this is ancient history and has nothing to do with today's deregulated markets . So who is being simplistic now , not to mention simple ??
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32 Kinkyboots
"On the day that Tesco announce better than expected bumper profits"
What has this got to do with the price of fish?
" and hot on the heels of spiv Dave's sound beating last night"
One swallow does not a Summer make for Cleggy boy. He has nothing to lose and the most to gain from these debates. He can also promise us the Earth, but he just looks too naive. If there was a big loser from the debate it was Brown. I felt genuine pity for him. He looked like a punch drunk boxer taking punishing blow after blow from his two nimble opponents.
"it is timely that the Greek financial crisis has saved Stephanie from setting out the unfolding weakness in Gideon's ill-founded scaremongering tax on jobs claim."
If you haven't understood the arguments as to why the NI tax is detrimental to employers' ability to take on new workers, you never will.
27 RD
Did you get those poll results from the copy of your Daily Mirror, because I have seen vastly different ones elsewhere.
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Ms. Flanders,
>>On Monday, you'll remember, we had more clarity on the support that might be offered to the Greeks - a third injection of clarity, you might say, adding some details to the statements that had been made in February and March.
Perhaps a better word to use, IMHO, is "clarification(s)" rather than "clarity" since everything is still very unclear. They can keep throwing out "clarifications" while leaving everything hanging in the air !!
It is unclear whether the Greeks will be able to "sell" their next tranche of debt instruments. It is also not clear at what price/interest rate they will get for that tranche, if they do sell it. It is still unclear whether they will draw-down on the promised EU-IMF loan since the IMF are already in town. Why add an extra layer of (EU) control when they can go diect to the IMF, as they've been forced to by circumstances.
>>Famously, that's where the French always wanted a single currency to lead.
Even more famously, they want the French in charge !! I believe that's why Frau Nein offered the French the chance to bailout the Greeks on their own, which the French rapidly declined. If the Germans do the majority of the bailouts, then they'll end up with the biggest say in the Euro, something that French national pride will not allow !! Unfortunately, the French can't afford that big a baliout on their own either !! Hence the EU-IMF package !!
>>Watch the election, by all means, but keep your eye out for troubles in Lisbon as well.
What has not been considered is that a "White Knight", in full Samba gear, might come riding by to bailout their co-linguists. They, proudly, lent the IMF a few billions last year and, I believe, they are willing to spread their wings on the world stage (if you'll forgive my mixed metaphors) !! After all, they've cornered the World Cup 2014 and the Olympics 2016 !!
It might be more profitable to keep an eye on other slightly dodgy economies, like Britain's, for instance !!
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Kevinb
"Thank goodness we were not stupid enough to join the Euro"
If we had been in the euro, up until recently we would have experienced even lower interest rates. This would have made the housing boom over here that much worse.
The euro is built on lies. There was always going to be too much divergence between the economies. Greece are going, going, gone. Portugal is going to be the next domino, shortly followed by Spain.
Excuse me, I need to go and sharpen my short selling knives.
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11 RD
"'Growing pains' not to be confused with 'death rattles' which is the sound coming from sterling, a sound that will increase as we fail to tackle the deficit."
The 'rattles' are getting quieter after GB's dismal showing in the debate.
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#9 >>I hope they go town on Paulson
I think you've got the wrong Paulson - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8625931.stm
"The firm's owner, John Paulson - no relation to former US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson...."
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#14 >>Merkel is, meanwhile, stuck in Lisbon (Icelandic volcanic ash).
I have serious doubts about that reason since, in her high-tech air-conditioned Mercedes, she can drive back to Berlin without little inconveniences like a large ditch to sail across !!
>>And yet - Estonia still wants to join the Euro in 2011. Why, one might ask?
Masochism ?? They been kicked around by the Soviets for so long, they might as well be kicked around by the Europeans as well !!
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#16 >>...and that Germany might well be the First Eurozone member to jump ship.
Alternatively, they might be "Primus inter pares", first amongst equals !! This might rather irk the French.
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#20 >>You may have noticed that almost every country was over-spending during the bankers created false boom...
Almost but not quite !! - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8619548.stm
This will have a knock-on effect on the Chinese Yuan.
Oh, that we have such problems !!
>>Even a child knows not to stick their fingers on a hot stove twice...apparently governments do not.
It's called "democracy" !! They keep electing a different fool every time and the elected fools keep sticking their fingers on the hot stove everytime !!
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#27 >>Early days but the most interesting election for decades.
Yup !! I just painted my walls and this election is certainly more interesting !!
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#33 >>And where's the money going to come from?
Check that same website and you'll see where !! Either through subscriptions of its members or through loans.
If it's through subscriptions, then Britain and America is in deep doo-doo. Britain has roughly the same amount of voting shares as China and America has 5 time as much. And the IMF wants *cash* (In God, we trust; all others pay cash) !! No "QuEasy" money, please !!
And, to be fair to Strauss-Kahn, he's merely battening down the hatches for the storm that he *knows* is coming !! Greece is merely the first breezes, Portugal may be a stronger blow; and then comes the real storm !! Britain ?? Italy ?? Spain ??
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#35
"If you had bothered to read the news , you would know that Germany's exports increased sharply in February
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Nothing to do with the Euro more to do with world trade - there was a bounce in Dec - Feb.
Any trade in February at any rate, due to forward currency agreements, would not reflect recent Euro movements.
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Richard Dingle
If your 'anti-rant software ' prevents you from seeing my posts then don't comment on them
We all know you are a non-dom, and love the Euro
That is your view, which I vehemently disagree with on economic grounds
You said...
The election would not be on May 6th
That we would have Euro/$ parity by now
Actually, since you made those comments, and I said it would head the other way it has
Either comment on my post with manners, or don't bother at all
I said joining the Euro would have been stupid
I did not say you were stupid for wanting to join
Please realise the difference, and if you cannot be pleasant then just don't comment
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#39
"The 'rattles' are getting quieter after GB's dismal showing in the debate. "
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Almost all the commentators seem to be saying that it was a disaster for Cameron
#36
"Did you get those poll results from the copy of your Daily Mirror, because I have seen vastly different ones elsewhere."
It was I agree just one poll (YouGov/Sun - skewed in favour of the Tories) and it is early days I agree. I tend to take polls with a pinch of salt though some less than others.
The LibDems (I do not vote for them) have had spectacular spikes before but not in General Elections - this election is turning out to be very different I feel. I don't take the Mirror or any of the 'red tops'. A lot of people thought the Leaders Debates would have an impact; of course there is every chance Clegg will tank in the next two.
Please carry on sharpening your short selling knife - I will be doing the same but with a different target.
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32
You seem to be getting just a little carried away
Cameron did not get a sound beating, he chose not to attack, which left him isolated in the Gordon loves Nick love in
In a three round series, let's see what the situation is after round three
I believe you are a labour supporter, so I wouldn't have thought you have too much to crow about currently
Were you impressed with Brown?
Seriously?
He was aggressive and rude, and kept over speaking
If he thinks taking £6bn 'out of the economy' (which is wrong anyway) is a threat to this pretend recovery, How does he think we will cope with taking £85bn in interest payments alone for the debt he is running up will do to the economy?
This is an increase of £50bn from current interest payment levels in just 4 years (by 2014/5)
Would you care to answer that question?
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46
Spain, due to unbelievably high unemployment rates, and economic slavery to the euro
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@47
Well Mr Dingle , seems that you ain't done your homework . There was a plethora of statements from high ranking German officials last year (well before the Greek crisis) complaining about the high value of the euro .
And the fact that the parity of the Euro vs the USD was 1.52 in Dec.09 and has fallen to 1.33 - 1.35 , has nothing to do with the German exports ? That's a more than 10% devaluation which is hugely helpful for them .
Now if you still think that all this is a coincidence , try thinking harder .
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#52
" There was a plethora of statements from high ranking German officials last year (well before the Greek crisis) complaining about the high value of the euro ."
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I did read these comments. You really have to take them with a pinch of salt - and look at the politics.
Also you must look at the effect of a weakening Euro on imports and inflation; the Germans are particularly paranoid about inflation.
As for exports the Germans tend to make high added value artefacts that can not be easily sourced elsewhere. If this country had a decent export base then it could exploit the situation.
"And the fact that the parity of the Euro vs the USD was 1.52 in Dec.09 and has fallen to 1.33 - 1.35 , has nothing to do with the German exports ? That's a more than 10% devaluation which is hugely helpful for them ."
The time lag is too short Dec -> Feb. They are not selling baked beans.
If you can give me some evidence of falling German order books then I will take your comments seriously. Of coursr all things being equal a depreciating currency will help exports, an appreciating currency won't necessarily harm exports. Margin will be maintained with cheaper imports,
History shows that an appreciating currency does not stop exports rising so long as you produce things people want as my example of the old DM.
Finally, the Germans are perfectionists and this tends to make them the biggest moaners in the EU when anything is not quite the way they think it should be.
Good luck with the IMF. Greece is a resourceful country and will overcome their current difficulties. They have overcome far greater challenges in their long and splendid history.
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#53
I forgot to add that one of the problems of the EU economy is that German exports are too strong and German domestic demand not strong enough to help other EU economies.
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#53
"If you can give me some evidence of falling German order books "
That should have read...
'If you can give me some evidence of falling German order books before the recent 10% drop against the USD after filtering out falls due to world trade slow down.'
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Stephanie,
I note a change in your tone when discussing the Greek debt situation. About time really. We appear to be reaching an end game.
It is also an arguement that you and other bloggers have made many times that the size of the Greek debt in relation to European GDP is very small suggesting one large bung and the disaster is averted. Ths is still doing the rounds in the same way as people still say if Lehmans had been bailed out things could have gone back to 'normal' without a credit crunch. Others comment on German priority being around preserving the level of the Euro. Who can say anything for sure.
Looking at the wider situation I consider Greece now to be the national equivalent of Lehmans September 2008. The music stopped and they had nowhere to sit.
Many rightly believe that if Greece default this will be the trigger to a much wider malaise. The fact is that Portugal, Spain and Italy owe collectively £1.3 trillion of which 46% is owed to German and French banks. This is the driving force guiding their actions not the relatively small sums involved in saving Greece.
Portugal and Spain have severe problems which would quickly become critical if Greece defaults. At the same time it is hard to see any alternative to simply bailing Greece out. However, doing so does not begin to solve the problem. It simply delays the inevitable. The problem being as old as time - if one lives beyond their means for long enough in the end they will have no means or means to borrow.
Best to make cuts rather than waiting to be cut off.
In the end Greek will probably default or levels of spending cuts will have to be made that go well beyond anything we have seen to date. None of this is new.
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Does anyone know what post#3 @4:44pm 16 April is trying to say?
However, it's heartening that all views are welcome on the BBC blogs.
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#56
"The fact is that Portugal, Spain and Italy owe collectively £1.3 trillion of which 46% is owed to German and French banks. This is the driving force guiding their actions not the relatively small sums involved in saving Greece."
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How much is owed to UK banks just out of interest. And is Greece as big as Lehmans was.
I would also caution against grouping Spain and Italy with Greece and Portugal. I would group the UK and Ireland with Greece and Portugal.
Spain has very high unemployment, granted, but how many were employed or even measured as such 20 years ago. Italy has a smallish deficit but very high debt (120% of GDP) - Italy is Italy. The UK is heading towards a hung parliament. Ireland is cutting the deficit but also cutting GDP; % remains the same.
PIIGS should read GUKIP.
If the doomsday scenario does unfold it will damage far more than the Euro and EU. One way of looking at the EU is that it is a container that channels German energy in a constructive way. That has been recent history. Best to keep the Genie in the bottle.
Ironically the country in the EU that needs the EU least - economically - is Germany. They need it to work politically.
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It is tragic that the post-war 'political' peace in Europe model of the European Union was turned into an 'economic' model with the 'enforced currency of the Euro'?
This 'common currency model' was pushed by France, who apparently, invented VAT too - the scourge of the most poor and low-income families across the European Union, including UK.
The European Union is not America - although the unelected 'big ideas' Eurocrats decided to emulate the USA model of a single currency? Water and oil - so much damage has been done?
As for Greece, Portugal, Spain and others? If African nations can have their 'crippling debts 'cleared' to start afresh - why can this not happen in the EU? Yes, perhaps this is naive - but why not????
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#3, Konnolsky, has read the situation correctly.
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A great piece Ms Flanders. Plenty of readable information; some analysis plus links and well-structured comments for 'everyone' to access and consider.
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59
It was always a German-Franco plan to neuter the UK
German arrogance and French pride will undo it
Trying to create a USE is absurd, and it will all end in tears
The Euro is doomed, and will contract, not expand
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#60
"#3, Konnolsky, has read the situation correctly"
Konnolsky for PM
#62
"It was always a German-Franco plan to neuter the UK"
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It worked then.
Of all the big players in the EU I cannot think of a more neutered one than the UK; thogh I think it was more self abuse.
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#59
"As for Greece, Portugal, Spain and others? If African nations can have their 'crippling debts 'cleared' to start afresh - why can this not happen in the EU? Yes, perhaps this is naive - but why not????"
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Interesting idea.
If every country on the planet reneged on their sovereign debt which ones would be the net loosers. How would it unwind. Its only paper money after all.
Go for it but can I have a 24 hours heads up so as to make arrangements.
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#59
Some developing companies have been released from country to country debt but only because they really could not pay it back and because in many cases it was acquired and largely stolen under dictators who had often been western backed.
These countries had already endured the type of IMF / World Bank restructuring / austerity programs which the PIGS are trying to avoid. They were also very much poorer and the sums much smaller. Also this took place long after the original defaults.
There really is no comparison.
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This volcanic situation could go on for weeks or months.
Bankrupt airlines? Bankrupt tour operators?
And how long before European governments declare a "state of emergency" to repatriate stranded families to their homelands(overland and by sea).
Stranded people losing their jobs?
Stranded people running out of money?
No accomodation?
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@53
I wouldn't take their comments with a pinch of salt , because usually Germans mean what say . And they were quite worried for the following reason : China , Germany and Japan are the largest world exporters . It used to be that China made cheap and cheerful products , while Germany and Japan made high value & high technology products . In the last few years though China has been moving fast (aided by western investments) to produce more high end products . Add to this the fact that RMB is tied to the USD and the USD has constantly been sliding against the Euro for the last couple of years and you can see why the Germans were upset . No matter how one tries to disguise it , the fall of the Euro is a godsend for them . As for the time lag , I don;t see the Euro going up soon . There are rumors that hedge funds are betting on a Euro/USD parity of 1.25 . Now that wouldn't be a bad thing for Europe - especially Southern Europe . Their tourism industry has been taking a beating - a falling euro might help to redress the issue .
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#67
" In the last few years though China has been moving fast (aided by western investments) to produce more high end products "
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This is a good point and one I have made several times on this board basically within the context of whether the UK can catch-up and keep-up. The omens are not good.
The Chineese are well educated and skilled, and have a sense of purpose and I would expect them to dominate certain economic sectors - in particular electric cars. Economic survival is all about climbing up the value-added export table.
By time lag I meant that it will take time for a weak Euro to feed into export stats. Feb really is too early. German order books now and in the next few months will reveal the truth, all things (world trade levels) being equal.
Personal debt is low in Germany (not as low as Japan) and the Germans should consume more to adjust trade balances.
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#66
"This volcanic situation could go on for weeks or months"
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Must be frustrating for BA strikers. No one will notice :)
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66
This is why global warming is just more tripe
James Havelock's Gaia Theory is unfortunately the more accurate, and it is too late for us to do anything with the climate, and being arrogant enough to think we can is somewhat odd
It is also an example of the hostage to fortune point that Portillo made on This Week
We have no control over anything currently, other than the overspending which is why it must cease
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It seems to me, as perhaps others have already stated, that the money people rule the World. They are bigger than any single government. Is it time for a World Government?
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#71
"It seems to me, as perhaps others have already stated, that the money people rule the World. They are bigger than any single government. Is it time for a World Government?"
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We have it already.
Goldman Sachs - busily doing God's work.
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71
That is the very thing we don't need!!!
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#71
"Is it time for a World Government?"
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With the Euro as currency.
Hmmm. I like your thinking.
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Dr Doom - like the Tory's campaign you are floundering. That price of fish I was refering to is the £3bn profit Tesco have posted. Your credibility is fatally flawed. If you really think that the increase in NI will stop Tesco and their ilk from taking on new staff to keep obscene profits rolling in for shareholder dividend then you're also living on Gideon's fantasy island. Tesco are probably planning a new store there....
As spiv Dave says "We're all in this together". They are - up to their necks
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75
I don't think using a Company the size of Tesco as a typical example is a particularly good idea, to be honest
Presumably you would like Tescos to go bust, and the just under half a million Tesco Employees to be unemployed?
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#75
#76
"If you really think that the increase in NI will stop Tesco and their ilk from taking on new staff"
does not mean
"Presumably you would like Tescos to go bust, and the just under half a million Tesco Employees to be unemployed"
The decision to take on new staff depends on whether the incremental profit they add will exceed their incremental cost - 1% is neither here nor there.
VAT would be worse for companies like Tesco - a lot of the high value items are standard rated.
Not withstanding that, I have already posted that NI has had its day. Use income tax and corporation tax instead.
Cameron and the Conservatives are being found out. Nothing to say on the deficit, plenty of gimmicks, tax giveaways for their rich friends, and the nasty party coming out of the closet.
Cameron was the clear loser on Thursday (I was genuinely surprised because he is a very good speaker). He looked out of his depth. Brown was clunky Brown - a par performance. Clegg seized the moment.
The next debate will be fascinating. Clegg and the LibDems are not tainted by Iraq. Cameron can only get better. Worse is not possible or is it.
Hung parliament here we come.
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74. At 1:53pm on 17 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
With the Euro as currency.
Hmmm. I like your thinking.
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I suppose you are right that the original blog was about the Euro. It may be going down and there seems to be mixed feelings whether that is good or bad. I think it is good for the speculators and we are all dancing to their tune, even those of us getting excited on this blog. At some later point, they will decide which other currency to push down and then the Euro will look a good buy.
So we would need a world currency which would be none of the currencies that we have at the moment.
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#70 kevinb,
You'd better hope that Havelock's latest additions to Ghia are correct and the UK is actually one of the few places were sustainable life is possible!
I do agree that there is a lot wrong with both the science and proposed strategies in regard of global warming. However, the 'new' technologies and the tax-type changes could offer Western Europe an edge.
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It is astonishing that he is 90, he is still so sharp
A lot of the newer technologies are being explored in the arc between Cambridge and Oxford
A breakthrough would be timely with fusion and quantum physics in particular
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Whilst Greece's problems are significant, it will be interesting to see what happens when someone defaults on a derivatives deal. The difference here is that the derivatives market is so much larger than the GDP of the whole world that a bail out is not feasible. Obviously 'net' transactions are much smaller but if someone grabs the money one way and defaults the other ...
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The enviroment is right for a major breakthrough. All of the indicators are positive (or negative if you prefer). However, nobody can truly predict what or when that breakthrough will be.
Previously significant change has been promoted by new sources of power and I would hazard a guess that it will be no different this time.
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I agree
I would like to see an international effort on desalination, as water shortage on one hand, together with rising sea levels on the other seems to be a no brainer
Obviously I am aware this technology is being used in the Middle East, yet it is too expensive
As an island, it would be sensible for us to do this, as opposed to pointless wind technology
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#51 >>Spain, due to unbelievably high unemployment rates, and economic slavery to the euro
I think a lot of their unemployment rate is political. During their heyday, they "took in" a lot of Latin Americans on the grounds that they were formerly Spanish that fled during the Franco years. Now that they are "in", they can't be booted out !!
And the Italians have their "naughty" TV shows to anaesthetise the unemployed masses (bread and circuses ??) !!
What does that leave ??
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#53 >>Good luck with the IMF. Greece is a resourceful country and will overcome their current difficulties. They have overcome far greater challenges in their long and splendid history.
Shades of Leonidas !! Will they dredge up some 300 crazy, suicidal soldiers and hold the IMF off at some pass ?? :-)
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#75 Stephanieskinkyboots
The problem with your argument like a number on here who are anti-bisiness is you quote an example from one very end of the scale - a typical case of exaggeration and hyperbole.
Tescos are higly succesful both domestically and abroad. However, they are 1 of c. 4.2 UK million enterprises (but dropping) the vast majority of whom will need to keep costs reduced and which any increase in NI will be 'like a hole in the head'.
You also need to understand the impact on public sector enterprises which have to absorb the NI increase (i.e. lead direct to job cuts).
I notice Cameron made this point the other evening which fell on all-too-deaf ears.
So if you're going to argue the point then use a representative sample - else you sound just like a (bad) union rep.
BTW - whilst we're on logic.
Try this:
Hi I'm Nick Clegg. I'm a politicain but not like the others. I promise some wonderful fairy tale stuff though nobody's noticed. Me and Vince will form a cabinet. Vote for me!
You really couldn't make it up. Hopefully this 'voting surge' will blow away as quick as it came but just in case have made the first planning moves to exit the UK pretty sharply.........as I fear that just maybe the UK has really lost its marbles...
Currently reading the last days of the Roman Empire as a topical guide.............and I'm sure I'm not the only one.........
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#59 >>As for Greece, Portugal, Spain and others? If African nations can have their 'crippling debts 'cleared' to start afresh - why can this not happen in the EU?
Well, firstly, what is a "crippling African debt" is considered peanuts in the greater scheme of things. What is a "crippling European debt" is nothing to be sneezed at !! Which of Europe's creditors will simply forgive tens of billions of European debt !! Will their citizens forgive their government for giving awan those tens of billions of their hard earned money ??
Yes, perhaps this is naive - but why not????
It is not merely naive, it's avaricious !! Now that the credit card is maxed, you want someone to forgive that debt and allow you to start maxing it again !!
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#63 >>Of all the big players in the EU I cannot think of a more neutered one than the UK; thogh I think it was more self abuse.
The mere thought of self-mutiliation gives me the shivers !!
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#75 If you check the details of Tesco's profits, you find that a significant chunk of it comes from the Far East, particularly from South-east Asia where they are very successful !! For that matter, the biggest Tesco hypermarket in the world is just outside Bangkok and they wouldn't build one there if there wasn't the business to support one !!
I know that Tesco is a famous British brand but with multinational companies, we have to think outside the pond !!
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#78 >>So we would need a world currency which would be none of the currencies that we have at the moment.
How about this - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8620178.stm - with the backing of the rising creditor countries, this could be possible in the near future !!
Especially with the IMF calling for more from its members, the BRIC countries can off-load their US and European debts on the IMF as part or all of their contributions !! Dare the Americans complain that their own debt is no good ?? Dare the Europeans complain that Euro debts are worthless ??
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#84
"What does that leave ??"
The good old UK
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#86
"who are anti-bisiness"
bisiness !
Good lunch Prof :)
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#79 >>You'd better hope that Havelock's latest additions to Ghia are correct and the UK is actually one of the few places were sustainable life is possible!
Possibly at the Late Bronze Age level. Since much of Britain's minerals have been mined yonks ago and there's hardly and forests to speak of, Britain must import almost everything (including food) or go without !! With the breakdown of technology due to a lack of spare/replacement parts, civilisation will collapse sharply. How many refridgerator manufacturers are there in Britain ?? Without the ability to store food, large cities will be unsustainable !!
Without rapid large-scale transportation, food cannot move very far !! Have you ever tried moving a large amount of food at ox-cart speeds ?? 10-12 miles a day, if you are lucky !!
The economy will be reduced to bartering to a great extent !!
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#81 >>...but if someone grabs the money one way and defaults the other ...
He/she will be visited by large gentlemen with very blunt instruments !!
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#83 >>As an island, it would be sensible for us to do this, as opposed to pointless wind technology
Britain has absolutely no need for desalination if proper water management is in place. Witness the recent Lake District floods !! In most countries, the lack of water is mostly due to a lack of proper water management.
Excess water due to storms, etc. are simply allowed to rush to the sea while, during the "dry" season, people are gasping for a drink !! Far too many people have been conditioned into thinking that water always comes out of a tap (if it isn't in the bottled form) !!
All this needs is some effort and political will. All the technology is already there !! A billion or two spent on water storage and management will go a far, far longer way than pouring them into useless quangos !! This is what a sustainable financial stimulus should be !!
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57. At 10:25am on 17 Apr 2010, corum-populo-2010 wrote:
Does anyone know what post#3 @4:44pm 16 April is trying to say?
However, it's heartening that all views are welcome on the BBC blogs.
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He's from Smolensk, so he writes riddles wrapped in mysteries inside enigmas. Personally I think he's a retired Somali Pirate, and buying a Butcher's in Smolensk is probably the safest retirement he can find.
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I think you'll find konnolsky is a spoof.
If I didn't know any better I reckon this is Ming-the-merciless in disguise because the tongue in cheek humour is exactly the same.
But I'll let konnolsky share his 'smolensk' views...............
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86. Rugbyprof wrote:
"Hi I'm Nick Clegg. I'm a politician but not like the others."
Do you not think this so called debate is a mistake? We have a House of Commons where once a week a joust takes place, why have this? Smacks a bit of the X-Factor. Lots of talentless folk making the big time because they have TV presence. Has our politics been reduced to this?
As to Greece, their problems are but a drop in the ocean compared to ours. Heaven help our young folk having to pick up the pieces of Clown Brown's prudent stewardship.
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For those commenting on Tescos profit announcement, how about Tescos announce those profits and then immediately say they are giong to increase frontline staff wages by the same percentage increase.
Most Tesco (and by that I mean most supermarket chains) frontline employees are women working on minimum wage. Tescos couldn't achieve all those sales without the frontline staff taking the cash over the counter.
Tesco (and by that I mean most supermarket chains)by restricting higher employee bonuses and shareholder dividends (I appreciate that some employees benefit frome SAYE schemes) could do more to alleviate the differential between male and female pay than any other sector.(supermarket staff are some of the lowest payed workers in the country and predominantly employ women)
So you would have to pay another 60 pence per weeks shopping, I'm sure if you feel that is too much you could probably campaign to cut your local authorities CEOs pay package (almost certainly a man)
£170,000,000,000 overspend this year, so what !, it's only money.
KevinB, I'm sure that you have valid points to make but surely it would be better to restrict yourself to two maybe three succinct posts, posts that really say what you mean, after all, this is an economics rather than a polotics blog. Don't feel the need to respond immediately to what you see as contrary posts, give others a chance to respond, possibly in your favour.
Chill, you don't want to burn out, I mean, have you read anything on here that would change your voting pattern ?, have you read anything on here that has made you question your view of the economic world ?
Don't post rhetoric, post a question that makes me think, better is a difficult quetion that you yourself doesn't know the answer to.
Which brings me nicely to my question.
Mark to Market, good or bad ?
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Meanwhile, here in the Eurozone.
Spain, been quiet for a while, unemployment hitting 20%, youth unemployment around 40%, but no worries, it's hot and sunny and a thriving black (non-contributary) economy is taking off (just like the old days!)
Portugal is not the problem, look east young man. (but don't go there)
Given that this is an economics blog, in the middle of a UK general election, can we take a step back and look at the global situation, what would Mises say, Keynes, old beardy Marx ?
Is this the end of Days ?
The world is in turmoil, that much I know.
Some kind of consensus as to where we want to be in 30 years and where we could be in 50 and 100 years.
Why am I in competition with my neighbor when it has been shown that working in cooperation is more productive, who stands to gain from this competition ?
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90. At 6:19pm on 17 Apr 2010, ishkandar wrote:
How about this - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8620178.stm - with the backing of the rising creditor countries, this could be possible in the near future !!
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Thanks.
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86. At 5:50pm on 17 Apr 2010, Rugbyprof wrote:
but just in case have made the first planning moves to exit the UK pretty sharply.
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Wouldn't it be good if everyone could just move to a country where they were happy with the politics. More people would be happy in the world. Unfortunately, there are more and more restrictions on settling down in another country.
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Regarding the general discussion over unemployment and the NI increase, I heard a representative of a large, successful British company on the BBC business slot on Friday saying that he would not be making people redundant because of it. When asked what he would do to cover it, he said that he would increase efficiency. I wondered if he had been working inefficiently to date. It also reminded me of a BBC business programme 15 years ago where Peter Day described how one company survived by studying how they did things and then cut out unnecessary steps. They then did this again and again. This is just what the government has been doing. Peter Day described how another company survived by giving its customers greater choice. My wife and son have needed NHS treatment over the last couple of years and I find that there is much greater choice in the NHS. So I think that the government has been doing the right things in these cases.
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And whilst I'm on my hobby horse of micro-economics, the nice fat profits that Tescos and other retailers are showing, if they gave that profit to their frontline employees we are only talking about a 2p per hour rise, 78p per standard working week.
78p, (less tax) doesn't seem worth it to a top exec on 3 grand per week, what they don't understand is that 78p is all that stands between having 5p in the bank at the end of the week and a £35 charge for going 50p overdrawn.
These are not idle shirkers, not dole scroungers, these are the people that you interact with and do business with every day of the week.
Abstract Economics is all very well and good.
Put yourself in somebody elses shoes.
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currency devaluation, labour cost change, resources and taxation changes open an "opportunity window" (or so I was told at school). The more flexible the system the quicker it goes back to the equilibrium, which, in some cases, might appear as hopeless as trying to get the ball out of a sand pot-hole on a golf course. What is needed to use these changes is a smart and determined player to grasp the chance.
As for mark to market, that's what every salesman on a town market does with his apples unless there is a huge lorry damping under priced apples from some exotic place - at that moment one can either change the market (not so difficult with a van of apples) or go to the town hall and start asking questions because market has been rigged.
Try harder questions and good luck on derivatives.
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#99 >>Mark to Market, good or bad ?
Is a knife good or bad ?? Same sort of question !! The answer is the same sort, too - it rather depends on how you use it !!
On a daily/monthly basis, it helps to keep track of the asset(s)' market value, especially in management accounts !! In a set of annual accounts, it's not of much use since it rather depends on which day's market the asset(s) are marked to *AND* what market it's marked to !!
Of course, this are generalisations since you have not specified what asset(s) are marked to market. The nature of the assets will also determine the greater or lesser accuracy of the value of marking to market.
To quote my bean-counting teacher, may he find peace in that Great Bean-counting Room in the Sky, "How do you price a priceless piece of art ??"
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Re. Tesco - Some have commented that Tesco should use its profit to pay its staff better. What has not been said/thought about is that many of their staff are *NOT IN THIS COUNTRY* !!
Paying their staff better will mean profits distributed *outside* the UK and, therefore, will *NOT* be subject to UK taxes !!
Great thinking, lads !! Helps to *increase* the Deficit somewhat !!
Or are you saying that this only applies to UK staff and that "some animals are more equal than others" (-G. Orwell, Animal Farm) ??
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1. At 4:31pm on 16 Apr 2010, writingsonthewall wrote:
Stephanie - this is the real news.
Goldman caught out in the end - SEC begins a war against the state of Goldman!
I agree. It also raises the possibility that the financial crisis may have been deliberately created by the Investment banks in collusion with Hedge funds by sucking in uninformed investors controlling our money to dodgy sub-prime derivatives.
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99
I am no fan of Tesco, yet to be fair to them they offer very flexible working, particularly for mums, and offer, I believe, a 15% discount on groceries for staff after a qualifying period
Thank you for your guidance/instructions on what I should think and write
Frankly, what I do is my business, and if you don't like my contributions, then please feel free to ignore them
I am sure they contain nothing of value to you
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
#31. Richard Dingle
I do agree with you, and the basis of the facts and reality - something that some people on the blog seem particularly immune from understanding!
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109
Like you
Aren't you getting a little tired of your pathetic campaign of spite and hate against me, for having the audacity to not view you as all-knowing, and even more terribly having a mind of my own
Just because I don't share your views it doesn't mean you are right and I am wrong
Continuing your venomous attacks cheapens anything valid you may have to offer in the future
We wait in hope for you to learn some manners, if nothing else
As a member of the teaching profession, I hope that you are able to control your spite and venom whilst working, or does anyone that thinks differently to you get bullied and abused too?
You refused to answer questions I asked you challenging your views, and for reasons best known to yourself, simply accused me of knowing nothing, rather like the immature attack on me in 109, and possibly the removed blog 108
The comments you made about me being schizophrenic were particularly distasteful, as this is a serious medical condition, and I presume that in using this, not only are you comfortable in abusing someone (me) that holds a different opinion to you, you also feel it necessary to belittle those suffering from a rather serious and debilitating mental illness
If you have no intention of answering my questions, and wish to do nothing but make abusive comments, then this reveals far more about you than I
Frankly, you should be ashamed of yourself
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#110
Your latest rant has completely overwhelmed the lite version of my anti-rant software. I will have to upgrade.
This is really classic projection.
"Continuing your venomous attacks cheapens anything valid you may have to offer in the future
We wait in hope for you to learn some manners, if nothing else"
You have just described yourself, and 'projected' it onto others.
I understand the pressure you must be under with the wheels coming off Mr Cameron's campaign.
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#93 ishkandar,
You really should go back and read what Havelock actually said last year.
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111
The same applies to you
If you can do nothing apart from be obsessed by me, then you are very sad
Very sad indeed
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#100 BobRocket,
"Why am I in competition with my neighbor when it has been shown that working in cooperation is more productive, who stands to gain from this competition ?"
This is a question that requires far more attention than we are likely to get whilst this election charade is going on!
The first step in such a cooperative process will be for Europe as a whole to unite and put its people back to work manufacturing products within its own borders. That will not happen until we see the collapse of the present financial structures and that point is getting closer and closer.
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#115 Kevinb,
I'm getting sick and tired of this bickering!!!
If somebody does not answer your specific points so be it - they either don't want too or they find it irrelevant. No advantage is gained by labouring the point. There is little time and space here so comments can be robust, you will just have to grow a thicker skin.
In one way people getting excieted about their stands is very good. It at least demonstrates that they are thinking about the economic state we are in and trying to find solutions - N.B. that appears to be far more than our politicians appear to be able to do!
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So am I, which is why I have done my best to ask those causing it to cease
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I wonder if other European/EU countries fiddle their unemployment figures like the UK?
8 million 'economically inactive' adults in the UK and our PM keeps saying that UK unemployment is falling?
I have tried to have a look and cannot find any reliable Eurozone statistics on this to make reliable comparisons - my guess is that Britain is in the worst position overall on this vital statistic?
This has become a taboo subject for the 2010 election - when to my mind this is the main recession statistic and the lack of output and tax revenue from these 'inactives'?
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75 Kinkyboots
"Dr Doom - like the Tory's campaign you are floundering. That price of fish I was referring to is the £3bn profit Tesco have posted. Your credibility is fatally flawed. If you really think that the increase in NI will stop Tesco and their ilk from taking on new staff to keep obscene profits rolling in for shareholder dividend"
This is where you have shown your naivety. £3bn sound like a lot of money, right? How would you reconcile this with the current dividend yield of 2.83% percent, i.e. the return shareholders get on their holdings. Is this your definition of obscene? What about cash isas yielding above 3%? Is this profiteering by greedy savers?
A further point to mention. Some of the profits you are talking about get reinvested to help it expand its business, e.g. setting up a supermarket chain in the US (its called Fresh and Easy if I am not mistaken) or opening up new stores. This investment helps the economy or maybe you would prefer all spending to be government driven.
I concede the point that the NI increase will not have a big impact on a successful company like Tesco, although it will lead to reduced investment or other efficiency savings (possibly through restrictions in wage growth). Have you considered the impact on small businesses (10 employees or less say) who are struggling to make any profits? Should they pay for government waste?
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Going off topic slightly. The part in the debate where GB tried to say that they were in agreement with the Lib Dems over electoral reforms was embarrassing to say the least and appears to show that Labour have given up the ghost about winning the election outright. The inane smiling while GB trotted out his rehearsed joke over Lord Ashcroft funded campaign posters showed that he wasn't really taking the debates seriously.
My (tongue in cheek) verdict on GB's performance
GB; "I am a robot, taking £6bn out of the economy would endanger the election, (pause) No, the recovery. Does not compute, does not compute, Lord Ashcroft, Lord Ashcroft, I saved the world, global banking crisis, Lord Ascroft,....."
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#117
"I wonder if other European/EU countries fiddle their unemployment figures like the UK?"
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I would guess that most governments spin the figures but none as cynically as the UK.
What I do know is that in Germany (the only country I know apart from the UK) the unemployed are treated properly and given a decent rate of benefit (75% of earnings) for the first year.
There is no economic benefit to the country in forcing a skilled person who suffers recessionary unemployment to take a job as a cleaner; apart from anything else looking for full time work within one's skill set is a full-time job.
Paying sensible benefits also acts as a stimulus to the economy.
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#118
"its called Fresh and Easy"
What a brilliant name for a 'user id' FRESH_AND_EASY.
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#118
"Should they pay for government waste?"
A bit emotive
Should they pay for 'front line services' sounds better
Or go the whole hog and say 'No NI increase or the fluffy kitten gets it'
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#123
"A bit emotive"
Possibly, but this is the type of language that I hope might work on these supposedly compassionate socialist types.
It is not an 'either or' question. You can deliver 'front line services' AND cut waste. A 100+ business leaders seem to think so.
"What a brilliant name for a 'user id' FRESH_AND_EASY."
I don't think Sir Terry has time to post on here. If he did, I would be interested to hear his take on the NI increase and not just from a Tesco
point of view.
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120. At 11:54am on 18 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
#117
"I wonder if other European/EU countries fiddle their unemployment figures like the UK?"
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I would guess that most governments spin the figures but none as cynically as the UK.
What I do know is that in Germany (the only country I know apart from the UK) the unemployed are treated properly and given a decent rate of benefit (75% of earnings) for the first year.
There is no economic benefit to the country in forcing a skilled person who suffers recessionary unemployment to take a job as a cleaner; apart from anything else looking for full time work within one's skill set is a full-time job.
Paying sensible benefits also acts as a stimulus to the economy.
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An interesting point - the UK had 'related earnings' benefits in the 1970's but these were scrapped, I recall, as being completely unaffordable for the UK.
The German '75%' benefits rate for the first year also stops many immigrants claiming exorbitant benefits as EU/non-EU members - it is much harder to claim benefits in Germany if a claimant is not German?
But back to the main point - the EU does not publish any reliable figures on the differences between EU member states on the numbers of economically active in ecah member country - So how can the EU know if its policies are working, fair, consistent and not causing massive inequalities between members states?
A massive issue here not yet addressed by any party save perhaps UKIP?
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#123
"It is not an 'either or' question. You can deliver 'front line services' AND cut waste."
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Very difficult to disagree with that.
But what exactly is 'cuttable waste'.
If you identify a cost saving of £1 but it will cost £1 to eliminate it would you bother.
Waste in public services is by definition waste of hard earned tax payers money and strikes an emotive chord. If you consider the sheer size of public enterprises, like the NHS (£100BN pa) even a small percentage of waste is an eye watering sum.
An example of waste in the private sector is shop lifting (it occurs within their patch and they could do more); the enterprises concerned could reduce it to zero if they spent enough resource.
Also a large body like the NHS could manage 'waste' better if it was broken down into smaller units but then it might lose economies of scale.
I am not saying waste does not exist, and it should be eliminated, but we should properly define what it is. I would also say it will always be with us; the trick is to keep it down to a certain level.
I certainly don't subscribe to the mantra: private enterprise = efficiency / public enterprises = inefficiency. I am not accusing you of this either.
New Labour and Gordon Brown have never denied the existence of waste; they have just correctly pointed out that elimination is not as simple and instant as the Boy Osborne suggests.
A comment commonly made about the NHS is the investment in several layers of management; I know someone who works in the NHS and am told that their workload has increased significantly but so has the number of managers. Good managers should mean better control; they are the 'nervous system' of a large organisation - is this waste.
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#124
" it is much harder to claim benefits in Germany if a claimant is not German?"
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As far as I am aware the rules apply to all EU citizens in Germany but if they have not worked for the past year or so they will get 75% of nothing.
As for EU citizens working in other EU states I am all for it. I am not comfortable with non EU migration except on genuine political asylum grounds.
Incidentally, for every non UK EU citizen working in the UK (about a million) there is one UK citizen working in the various EU countries (about a million). We have UK engineers working in Germany and France and Polish plumbers working over here. Stop this and you end up with unemployed UK engineers spending all day in Yellow Pages looking for a plumber; or would you suggest they retrain as plumbers.
Migration is economically healthy.
UKIP don't address these issues; they have only one item on their agenda, xenophobia.
New Labour can take the blame for this majority negative attitude to the EU; they have never bothered to push the EU agenda. If there was a proper informed debate on the EU followed by a referendum the British people would vote to stay in the existing EU.
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Goldman-Sachs version of the “Three Little Piggies”:
When one of the little PIIGS defaults, the next little PIGGY will be prepped & STUPID (i.e. Spain, Turkey, UK, Portual, Italy or Dubai).
Of course the little piggy ready for roasting right now is Greeece.
2002, Greece’s debt folk agreed to huge deal with Goldman Sachs. The fix involved cross-currency credit swaps. On which side (I wonder) did Goldman Sachs bet? Greece will succeed or Greece will fail?
I haven’t found the exact records for Greek hanky-panky (or rather potential Goldman-Sachs’ hanky panky) but this has all the feel of a financial derivative transdaction, using of course Credit Default swaps.
Also, derivatives, being totally unregulated, would have been (and maybe still are) the only way to bypass The Maastricht Rules.
Oh how nicely Greece was skewered; after all, it had dealt with Goldman before; in 2001, just after Greece was admitted to Europe’s monetary union, Goldman helped the government quietly borrow billions. That deal, which was anything but transparent (treated as a currency trade rather than a loan), helped Greece climb into the PIIG pen.
Now I’m going to tell you something really surprising! I allege, as in the American subprime crisis and the implosion of the American International Group (AIG), financial derivatives were at the heart of Greek debt. Derivative instruments allegedly developed by Goldman Sachs, JP MORGAN CHASE and a wide range of other banks provided the death of a thousand cuts. These instruments enabled politicians to mask additional borrowing - STUPID PIIGS!
Immediate effect:
- cash upfront,
- government payment in the future,
- liabilities off the books.
(Greece traded away the rights to airport fees and lottery proceeds in years to come.)
I say these deals, because of the nefarious, non-transparent nature of their accounting, mislead investors and regulators. The crisis in Greece poses a major challenge to Europe’s common currency, the euro, and the Continent’s goal of economic unity. Greek default will shake Europe.
What bothers me most is that the ventures of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, and the other Wall Street Boys have received so little attention in Europe.
It’s Greece’s fault! And watch out: This is how the Americans play – divide and conquer. But instead of bailing Greece out, the EU should be launching a legal case against Goldman-Sachs if for no other reason that the suffering caused to the Greek people, and that will be caused across Europe. Also, if my opinion turns out to be correct - how dare any foreign country bet against the sovereign debt of another country
Few rules govern the market for sovereign debt and where the field is vast and enriching, the Wall-Street boys will find it & play.
Already it is becoming more difficult for Italy, Spain and Portugal to borrow. Countries like Italy and Greece entered the monetary union with bigger deficits than permitted. These governments artificially reduced their deficits with derivatives ie off-balance sheet accounting.
JPMorgan in Italy was able to do more than that. Despite persistently high deficits, a 1996 derivative helped bring Italy’s budget into line by swapping currency with JPMorgan at a favorable exchange rate, effectively putting more money in the government’s hands. In return, Italy committed to future payments that were not booked.
While such opaque accounting can be beneficial in the short run, over the long term, off-sheet accounting is the death of 1,000 cuts.
Does the UK have derivatives - not openly documented or disclosed - off-balance sheet accounting? Is the UK a little PIGGY?
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I do not think it is fair to slag politicians off for the way they look or speak. It is what they will do in government that matters not how they look. Not only is it not fair but it is rather immature.
In the case of Gordon Brown, I think that he is a courageous man. He only has one eye and he has poor sight in that. That disability does affect his facial expressions and, though we should attack the policies of political leaders, we should not attack them for such a disability. I admire his courage in standing up in front of people whilst having such difficulty.
It is easy to give snap answers when one only knows a limited amount. In such cases, the brain only has limited information from which to select so it does not take long to come up with a response. It is said ( I don’t know for myself) that Gordon Brown has a powerful intellect and a strong grasp of detail. It can be difficult for people with detailed knowledge to water it down into a form that a non-expert will understand.
I think that Gordon Brown did the right thing to protect people’s savings and jobs when the Credit Crunch started in America. Ordinary people with savings in the building societies would have lost those savings had Gordon Brown not done what he did. People would have rushed to take their money out of other building societies and there would have been a total collapse of Capitalism in this country. It is easy to forget that now.
People have been talking about the interaction of currencies on this blog and he worked tirelessly to try and co-ordinate the governmental reaction so that the power of the speculators would be reduced. He was given the Statesman of the Year award for his efforts.
The media tycoons decided when he became prime minister that he was not right wing enough for them and everything that he did from then on they put in a negative light. No matter what happens t this election, History will recognise him as a statesman who worked to bring fairness here and internationally.
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#127
"Is the UK a little PIGGY?"
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The UK is a fat juicy PIGGY ready for a-roasting.
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126. At 1:46pm on 18 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
#124
" it is much harder to claim benefits in Germany if a claimant is not German?"
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As far as I am aware the rules apply to all EU citizens in Germany but if they have not worked for the past year or so they will get 75% of nothing.
As for EU citizens working in other EU states I am all for it. I am not comfortable with non EU migration except on genuine political asylum grounds.
Incidentally, for every non UK EU citizen working in the UK (about a million) there is one UK citizen working in the various EU countries (about a million). We have UK engineers working in Germany and France and Polish plumbers working over here. Stop this and you end up with unemployed UK engineers spending all day in Yellow Pages looking for a plumber; or would you suggest they retrain as plumbers.
Migration is economically healthy.
UKIP don't address these issues; they have only one item on their agenda, xenophobia.
New Labour can take the blame for this majority negative attitude to the EU; they have never bothered to push the EU agenda. If there was a proper informed debate on the EU followed by a referendum the British people would vote to stay in the existing EU.
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You have not answered the question - how do EU policies and government account for 8 million inactive adults in the UK?
1 million Brits working overseas in the EU - Yes I've heard that figure quoted but where has that figure come from - I think it is another 'lie' based on drawn out historical fudged unreliable data and spun and promulgated from 'nowhere' in this election?
Where is the evidence?
What is the source?
What is skill base of the host countries?
I challenge anyone to prove that figure of 1 million Brits currently 'working' in the EU?
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
#128
Excellent post.
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#130
"how do EU policies and government account for 8 million inactive adults in the UK?"
With difficulty I imagine. The level of accurate data is something that frustrates me as well. Though I am sure it is there somewhere.
"1 million Brits working overseas in the EU - Yes I've heard that figure quoted but where has that figure come from"
From various independent market reserach projects. At an anecdotal level I know of several UK citizens working in the EU and most people I know also have friends working in the EU. You don't have to count everyone - you can use statistics and sampling.
I have to concede that EU enlargement was a little hasty and caused some issues. Try a glass half full approach. Countries like the new eastern european countries are our export markets which is the primary reason the Germans were behind enlargement - markets and cheap labour. But then again we don't do exports do we.
We should sign up to Schengen and chill.
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133. At 3:13pm on 18 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
#130
"how do EU policies and government account for 8 million inactive adults in the UK?"
With difficulty I imagine. The level of accurate data is something that frustrates me as well. Though I am sure it is there somewhere.
"1 million Brits working overseas in the EU - Yes I've heard that figure quoted but where has that figure come from"
From various independent market reserach projects. At an anecdotal level I know of several UK citizens working in the EU and most people I know also have friends working in the EU. You don't have to count everyone - you can use statistics and sampling.
I have to concede that EU enlargement was a little hasty and caused some issues. Try a glass half full approach. Countries like the new eastern european countries are our export markets which is the primary reason the Germans were behind enlargement - markets and cheap labour. But then again we don't do exports do we.
We should sign up to Schengen and chill.
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Where are these Independent reports? There is no relaibale count -these are simply estimates/
Do you think that the Inland Revenue or any other government institutiona anywhere has a handle on this - of course not!
The figure of one million almost certainly includes many of those retired and who support themselves and are not taking millions of jobs of local host country people.
This all a great lie!
There is no source for this one million Brits working in the Eurozone - it is misinformation promulgated by paid yes men as the figure includes is not adjusted for e.g:
British service men and women 100,000 ? still in Europe?
Germany alone still costs the UK ... ? Billion a year as we are still paying for WW2
This figure of One million Brits has also been put around again today/yesterday by Gordon Brown as part of his Labour spin machine misinformation propaganda.
There is no official or explainable source for this data. It is simply an unsourced 'yes man' paid/biased estimate.
It's time that this benefits to the UK nonsense of immigration with e.g. 1 million EU jobs is put right as being unsourced and unreliable.
Its time that politicians like Brown name their source for statistics when these are used to further a view in this election so that the electorate is not continually misled and lied to...
Britain's non economically inactive population is the largest in the EU by population/ GDP etc and this is and will continue to damage our economic recovery with x million immigrants sending billions of pounds out of our economy each year. The EU covers up these horrendous statistics on the UK by completely ignoring teh effects of their policies on individual EU member states - particularly when there is weak government like we have in the UK.
I challenge anyone, anywhere to prove me wrong!
Gordon Brown and mnay others knows that he is lying when he gives out this figure of one million Brits working in the Eurozone - he cannot prove this figure and he and his Labour government should stop giving out bent statistics.
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#128
"I do not think it is fair to slag politicians off for the way they look or speak. It is what they will do in government that matters not how they look. Not only is it not fair but it is rather immature."
I agree that it is not fair to slag anyone off for the way they look or speak. I personally haven't done that in any of my posts. I haven given full credit to GB in a previous thread for agreeing to do the debates when other PMs have ducked the challenge.
"It is easy to give snap answers when one only knows a limited amount. It can be difficult for people with detailed knowledge to water it down into a form that a non-expert will understand."
Shouldn't GB have known a great deal about the issues being discussed? He would have been aware of the topics to be discussed and would therefore had time to prepare. Putting complex ideas in a form that lay people can easily understand is a good communication skill. Shouldn't that be a minimum requirement of a PM?
"I think that Gordon Brown did the right thing to protect people’s savings and jobs when the Credit Crunch started in America."
The pesky 'global' banking crisis. The GB 'light touch' regulation and loose monetary policy had nothing to do with the collapse of our banks I suppose? The bail out of the banks was necessary and forced upon them by circumstances. Any political party who claims they would have acted differently are being disingenuous.
The long and short of it, there are many reasons why I do not like GB (£5bn pension raid, gold selling, 10p tax fiasco, reinforcing a culture of welfare dependency, the golden rules or lies). None of them whatsoever are for the way he looks.
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#134 nautonier,
"Britain's non economically inactive population is the largest in the EU by population/ GDP etc and this is and will continue to damage our economic recovery with x million immigrants sending billions of pounds out of our economy each year. The EU covers up these horrendous statistics on the UK by completely ignoring teh effects of their policies on individual EU member states - particularly when there is weak government like we have in the UK.
I challenge anyone, anywhere to prove me wrong!"
Naughty naughty nautonier!!! YOU made the claim so YOU provide the evidence. Or is it that YOU are the liar?
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#134
"..he cannot prove this figure and he and his Labour government should stop giving out bent statistics"
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Why should anyone believe your figures more.
Migrants are the biggest single non-issue of our time.
You want facts. The UK is only the sixth biggest (Euros 937 per person) per capita net contributor to the EU after Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Germany and Austria. The biggest net beneficiary (Euros 16,170) is Luxembourg. These are 2007 figures.
Top 5 gross contributors (2006) as a percentage of EU budget are:
Germany 21.1%
France 16.4%
Italy 13.6%
UK 13.1%
Spain 8.5%
Benefits of EU membership are huge. Without we would compromise our biggest export market, inward investment would reduce to a trickle and the City would shrink to a quarter of its size. These are not scare stories; they come from the heads of Japanese car companies and American banks as well as independent think tanks.
UKIP and Lord Pearson (a political non-entity trying to make a name for himself) have as much credibility as the Flat Earth Society.
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A bit of Déjà vu, a re-run of last year's banking crisis. Except this time it is on a country. Exaggerate the crisis and sucks in massive amount of public money. Several players get massive payoffs then move on to target next country?
Has someone really had a hard look at the possible benefit of letting Greece default? If EVERYONE gets burn badly then the rot might stop there and start to encourage more responsible spending, lending and speculations.
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#137
I should have added that considering the UK is the fifth major economy in the world our net contribution is pathetic - it should be a lot higher.
The rebate should go forthwith; the monies could be used to provide broadband for Rumanian pig farmers :)
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125. At 1:28pm on 18 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
"I am not saying waste does not exist, and it should be eliminated, but we should properly define what it is. I would also say it will always be with us; the trick is to keep it down to a certain level.
I certainly don't subscribe to the mantra: private enterprise = efficiency / public enterprises = inefficiency."
You pose the question that the mantra that the private sector is not always efficient and the public sector not always inefficient. True. But there are key differences that mean that the private sector, through the need to be profitable has to continually make efficiences.
Whereas the public sector has difficulties in setting efficiency levels because something might be efficient but also very costly to run and manage. The last ten years has seen lots of efficiency initiatives such as keeping to budget or, as seems to be the case these days, benchmarking organisations to identify poorly performing organisations within a sector. But the difficulty is always that Government can’t do everything.
However I did see for myself some of the issues affecting the public sector within a couple of branches of the public sector which illustrated the issues that hold back efficiency. These included:
- Continual policy changes by Government, which meant departments were always firefighting not improving (the education system?).
- Overly complicated Government objectives that result in huge waste (the tax credits system, which is a nightmare to manage)
- The lack of proper budgetary control leading to large overspends.
- Empire building by some high level Directors, which resulted in unnecessarily large departments (usually not in the front line to use todays vernacular).
- The lack of process driven IT systems (something common in the Private Sector).
- Overambitious IT systems that are game changing (and usually fail) instead of continuous improvement like in the Private Sector.
If Government want to reduce costs they will have to do less, reduce red tape and bureaucracy and stop tinkering all the time.
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I have no idea if the 10 million economically inactive are the highest in Europe, it is certainly the highest in the history of the UK
It does not bode well at all, with the average pay increase in the private sector zero in the last 12 months, and the average in the public sector (excluding financial services ) 2.60% higher
Total pay is also higher in the public sector
Something has to be done before we tax ourselves to death
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#134
"The figure of one million almost certainly includes many of those retired and who support themselves and are not taking millions of jobs of local host country people"
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The million we are talking about only includes people in employment - it does not include retirees or armed forces personnel.
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128 Fairsfair
I appreciate your obvious decency in defence of Gordon Brown's physical appearance. I agree it is indefensible to criticise someone just for how they appear.
I also accept that in coming to the defense of the banking sector in the autumn of 2009 Brown did us all a favour. However, having said that though what the government did then was what governments are expected to do if banks get into trouble. The Heath government did the same when the bust happened in late 1973. This is not a party political issue and should not become one.
However, my long standing criticism of Gordon Brown prevents me agreeing with the remainder of your post.
Mr. Brown created the tripartite regulatory system in which the previous supremacy of the Bank of England in the management of the City was split between the Bank, the FSA and the Treasury. The consequence was that nobody was in charge and so nobody was responsible. The unfortunate outcome was that the only person capable of calling the top of the market was the Chancellor himself, in this case Gordon Brown who failed dismally to manage his new regulatory structure.
Mr. Brown raided the pension funds thus destroying the savings culture well-established within the UK.
Mr. Brown sold gold off at the bottom of the market having previously told the market that this is what he would do thus ensuring that the price gained was the lowest possible.
Mr. Brown embarked on a programme of deficit financing so that a programme of `reforms' could be implemented in the public sector. This meant an explosion in pay for senior members of the apparat.
Mr. Brown failed to increase income tax allowances thus ensuring that the low paid were dragged into paying even more income tax.
Mr. Brown favoured the City in the management of the commercial affairs of the nation, such as the value of sterling against the US dollar, thus ensuring that more jobs were lost in manufacturing industry than had happened under Mrs. Thatcher. This same policy ensured an explosion of imports from China so that deflation was imported.
Mr. Brown changed the measurement of inflation so that the cost of housing was excluded from the calculation. This caused an understatement of interest rates, a further collapse in savings, and an explosion in house-price inflation.
Then, when the bust started to happen there was a delay in protecting the depositors in Northern Rock causing a banking panic.
The causes of the Credit Crunch are varied and the court is still out on that topic. I do feel that there was a fundamental failure in bank and money-market regulation within the UK for which Gordon Brown has to bear responsibility.
Once the bust had happened rather than running about the world looking for a wider agreement to manage the banks, the domestic need for significant banking reform has been largely negelected. I am bored with reiterating my views on this subject so I will not tire you with that narrative. I do feel that Mr. Brown rather than focussing on the beam in the eye of the UK banks he rather allowed himself to be carried away by the mote in the eye of the US banks. To my jaundiced perception banks both in the US and the UK are responsible for the bust so whilst events unravelled first in America it was by pure chance they didn't unravel here first.
I am sorry but Mr. Brown and his friends can rewrite his CV as many times as they like but his track record is one of disaster upon disaster. I cannot understand how anyone with such a history of incompetence can consider himself suitable for public office. This is not a case of `events, dear boy, events' which is the problem facing the Greek government but a case of just not knowing what to do in any situation. What puzzles me is what was driving him and what was driving his advisors? They could not run a bath.
The consequence of Mr. Brown's genius leaves Britain with a national debt of GBP 766 billion (he inherited a national debt of GBP 350 billion) and an annual deficit of GBP 163 billion. Mr. Brown plans over five years to reduce the deficit to GBP 74 billion but increase the debt to GBP 1.4 trillion. This debt figure does not include off balance sheet liabilities such as public sector pensions and PFI to the tune of about another GBP 1 trillion.
Mr Brown then remarks that the planned cuts in government spending that the Tories plan make him want to cry. The Tory plans merely move the date for tackling the deficit forward by six months. The Tory plans for tackling the deficit are about as useless as Labour's plans as they constitute a denial of our predicament.
No: I am not impressed with Gordon Brown. I do not worship at the temple of his genius. I accept he is just one of a generation of foolish politicians united in their shallow pseudo-intellectualism. In his shoes I would crawl way and hide in shame for what I had done to this country, my children and grand children. The fact that he is standing for office again and is backed by his party tells me all about him, his party and their view as to the intellgence of the British people.
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#125 RD
Thanks for the considered reply.
"But what exactly is 'cuttable waste'."
It was a while ago since I read it, but didn't the Gershon report highlight significant areas where cost savings could be achieved. I think that there are a large number of (non Trident) areas that could be cut without having any impact on public services. ID cards, quangos (could the Carbon and Energy Saving trusts be merged for example?). Do equality and diversity coordinators do anything that existing legislation should ensure happens.
"A comment commonly made about the NHS is the investment in several layers of management; I know someone who works in the NHS and am told that their workload has increased significantly but so has the number of managers. Good managers should mean better control; they are the 'nervous system' of a large organisation - is this waste."
I don't personally know if the NHS is under or over managed. However, the fact that the number of managers has grown faster in recent years than the number of doctors and nurses is a worrying trend. This needs to reversed if productivity is to be improved.
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136. At 4:59pm on 18 Apr 2010, foredeckdave wrote:
#134 nautonier,
"Britain's non economically inactive population is the largest in the EU by population/ GDP etc and this is and will continue to damage our economic recovery with x million immigrants sending billions of pounds out of our economy each year. The EU covers up these horrendous statistics on the UK by completely ignoring teh effects of their policies on individual EU member states - particularly when there is weak government like we have in the UK.
I challenge anyone, anywhere to prove me wrong!"
Naughty naughty nautonier!!! YOU made the claim so YOU provide the evidence. Or is it that YOU are the liar?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Hey 4 Dicks
Prove me wrong if you can - try and figure it out for yourself and ever have you ever tried thinking before you write?
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#138
"If EVERYONE gets burn badly then the rot might stop there and start to encourage more responsible spending, lending and speculations."
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This is what should have happened with the banking crisis. Stiglitz was very dubious about the bail-out.
A bailout usually means extra profits for banks left standing. Perfectly designed greed machines.
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137. At 5:30pm on 18 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
#134
"..he cannot prove this figure and he and his Labour government should stop giving out bent statistics"
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Why should anyone believe your figures more.
Migrants are the biggest single non-issue of our time.
You want facts. The UK is only the sixth biggest (Euros 937 per person) per capita net contributor to the EU after Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Germany and Austria. The biggest net beneficiary (Euros 16,170) is Luxembourg. These are 2007 figures.
Top 5 gross contributors (2006) as a percentage of EU budget are:
Germany 21.1%
France 16.4%
Italy 13.6%
UK 13.1%
Spain 8.5%
Benefits of EU membership are huge. Without we would compromise our biggest export market, inward investment would reduce to a trickle and the City would shrink to a quarter of its size. These are not scare stories; they come from the heads of Japanese car companies and American banks as well as independent think tanks.
UKIP and Lord Pearson (a political non-entity trying to make a name for himself) have as much credibility as the Flat Earth Society.
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Your figures are meaningless and your GDP figures do not relate to the issues raised in my earlier post and do not show what is happening regarding the mis-operation of the EU and lack of reliable population/immigration/welfare/ British workers/investors/retirees - all the critical information is missing from your 'analysis'.
Your figures do not show e.g. the net EU contributions per working person in the UK?
You've not answered the questions - perhaps you should admit when you've not got any answers on the questions put to you no relevance on the figures which you are repeating?
I'm not PM representing government - I haven't provided any statistics - just reported statements and ideas - if Gordon Brown needs to peddle these these statistics lets see the source and composition/breakdown
Let's also be provided with full facts on economically inactive adults in other EU countries.
When these halve truths and bent statistics keep being thrown around in Chimpanzee economics - this is how the Labour monkey business and misinformation becomes a fact - a great Labour 'Harold Wilson' lie sold repeated to the electorate - over and over again until it becomes fact!
Anyone can throw figures around - my figures are more solid than Brown's but I'm not trying to be elected as PM of the UK - that's the difference - try and work it out!
Brown keeps repeating unsourced and unreliable data - that is the issue -it's called deliberate misinformation or ... being a nasty, compulsive liar!
Guess what - then the lies get repeated all over the media and on this blog in the run up to the general election!
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142. At 6:00pm on 18 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
#134
"The figure of one million almost certainly includes many of those retired and who support themselves and are not taking millions of jobs of local host country people"
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The million we are talking about only includes people in employment - it does not include retirees or armed forces personnel.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
How do you know? Prove it!
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#140
I have to agree with most of your post. The sheer scale and constant tinkering cause no end of problems.
The private sector also suffers from 'empire building' and 'tinkering' but has to aim for efficiency or go under, whereas the public sector if not efficiently run gets more money thrown at the problem which is wrong.
It is all down to good management in the end.
The unique problems facing the public sector do not invalidate having a public sector, and I would say it is just about the right size and scope.
The NHS in particular should have a two parliament cycle to bed down new systems without constant government tinkering.
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141. At 5:55pm on 18 Apr 2010, Kevinb wrote:
I have no idea if the 10 million economically inactive are the highest in Europe, it is certainly the highest in the history of the UK
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Exactly - no one knows - it is conjecture - there is no Freedom of Information Act equivalent with the EU - the details are all locked up and kept secret in Brussels/Starsbourg - if reliable stats exist at all.
Similarly, I do not know if the statement that 1 million Brits ( I've seen claims for higher figures than this) work in the EU means means that Britain must keep open the flood gates to immigration is fact or fiction because the estimate of Brits working in Europe is at best an unreliable guesstimate and at worst fudged and fabricated as including:
- those with 2nd homes in Europe
- retirees
- those with dual citizenship
- those married to one of another EU state
- armed forces
- seasonal workers
- students
- there are many categories here
So my question is how does Britain compare to other EU states on the true level of unemployment - the 'economically inactive' - the 8, 9 or even 10+ million as no one is sure in the UK what that figures is either.
Is this going to be discussed in time for the general election?
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143
Sadly too true
Brown is acting out of self interest, and if it were true that not increasing NI by £6bn would harm the economy, then I would think that adding £50bn each year to the budget paying for Brown's irresponsible borrowing is not such a good idea
If the £6bn makes him cry, (vomit) then hopefully the £50bn will make him move to the other side of the world
He is unfit for office and is an economic terrorist
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#145
If you can't substantaite your own claims then it is a fair assumption that YOU are a liar - in your parlance - end of!!
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#148
"Your figures do not show e.g. the net EU contributions per working person in the UK?"
I did.
'The UK is only the sixth biggest (Euros 937 per person) per capita net contributor to the EU after Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Germany and Austria. The biggest net beneficiary (Euros 16,170) is Luxembourg. These are 2007 figures.'
In 2007 the net per capita contribution for the UK was Euros 937.
"Your figures are meaningless and your GDP figures do not relate to the issues"
I did not give GDP figures; the figures are percentages of total EU budget.
" try and work it out!"
I don't have to. I am very happy with the current state of the EU, our contribution and not the slightest bit bothered about migrants or for that matter the irrelevancy of the 8 million economically inactive.
That nice Mr Clegg agrees with me :)
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152. At 7:34pm on 18 Apr 2010, foredeckdave wrote:
#145
If you can't substantaite your own claims then it is a fair assumption that YOU are a liar - in your parlance - end of!!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Four Dicks
All of my figures are well reported in the public domain - but where does Brown get his figures from?
Name the source(s) - show the figures/breakdown - prove me wrong!
I see you have not offered any figures or any useful or constructive comment other than abuse and ridicule as consistent with just about most if not all of your ridiculous and boring posts!
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151 Kevinb
Mr. Brown is neither acting in self-interest nor is he a terrorist.
In my time I have met both self-interested people and active terrorists. Whilst I deplore their behaviour I have found myself at least understanding their predicament which has allowed me to pray for their immortal souls in both a Christian way and, now and again, in a far older manner.
I must confess to not understanding Mr. Brown or his supporters in any way at all. Whilst I disagree with Calvin's predestinarianism even my Presbyterian relatives possess a comprehensible moral structure which I can perceive as their Conscience.
Mr.Brown has publicly laid claim to such a Conscience but I see no sign of it other than the arrogance of self-proclaimed salvation.
I have said before that such as I with a family background as mine should be a Labour supporter. I am too aware of the historical failings of the Labour Party to vote for them even in the good times. This time they have failed in quite a devastating and comprehensible manner not just with the recession (slump) but with events leading up to the recession (slump). For this reason I want Labour to fail fundamentally so that a new party of the Left can be created out of campaigning on matters relevant to ordinary people.
All of the parties at this election have failed to be truthful with the electorate. This is a disgrace. Whilst I scorn Brown and Labour, I can see little reason for voting other than to just get rid of Brown.
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#150
"Is this going to be discussed in time for the general election?"
In a word NO
It is totally irrelevant.
Calm down. Nice Mr Brown and nice Mr Clegg will make it all better.
Cameron will be joining the 'economically inactive', or should it be economically illiterate.
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Today I have a number of questions, not all of them related to Stephanie's article.
1. This one is for Richard Dingle. [Before I ask it, can I suggest he stops calling Osborne Boy George? It is funny exactly once, though applies to young Washington as well. RD did say something about the British not liking personal attacks. Lead by example, there's a clever Richard.] So here is my question. What is the EU for? I have a great love for Portugal (my travel plans are in ash chaos, unfortunately, and no, I do not mean by Portugal Algarve) and I think what the EU has done to it by shoveling money at it is criminal. Anyone (like Tony Blair, but that is a separate story) who corrupts the easily corruptible, is despicable. I repeat, what existential problem does the EU solve (compare with NATO...).
2. Got my better half's Alliance and Leicester so called ISA statement. 0.10% pa interest. Is that some governmental hint that we should go out and spend all our savings on nonsense? My suggestion: half into mortgage, half invest in Australia. I wonder how many more people are doing the same.
3. Conservatives: Apart from myself I have not seen one on the airwaves. Are they all dead, converted or what? Noone remarked on DC's enthusiasm for reforming the House of Lords. Hereditory peers, it's insufferable innit. Hereditory peers, someone should explain to him, is why it works. If you are a conservative, you do not interfere with what works. Making it "accountable" to the "electorate" means making it accountable to the party machine, and then I do not see the point of it.
Well anyway. But if one does not understand what a conservative is, what hope for, or point in the Conservative party? By the way, Mrs T was utterly unconservative when she dragged UK into Europe.
4. I stopped understanding the political system here. What are we voting for? I'd like some advice from GB, DC and the lemon flavour of the moment. Are we voting locally for the best candidate or are we voting for the party? Would GB say, vote Labour even though the local candidate is a waste of space? Or would he say, vote say SNP, their candidate is a serious upstanding politician. [Of course he would say, vote Labour, our candidate is the only serious upstanding etc., but then he would, wouldn't he.] Where I live, there is absolutely no chance even for a protest vote.
5. War in Afghanistan, NATIONAL DEBT, destruction of the countryside, a second generation whose ambitions do not go beyond Buckfast, football and shopping: where are all these in the election campaign? The leaders of all parties should cover their heads in ashes. Oh, wait...
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153. At 7:43pm on 18 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
#148
"Your figures do not show e.g. the net EU contributions per working person in the UK?"
I did.
'The UK is only the sixth biggest (Euros 937 per person) per capita net contributor to the EU after Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Germany and Austria. The biggest net beneficiary (Euros 16,170) is Luxembourg. These are 2007 figures.'
In 2007 the net per capita contribution for the UK was Euros 937.
"Your figures are meaningless and your GDP figures do not relate to the issues"
I did not give GDP figures; the figures are percentages of total EU budget.
" try and work it out!"
I don't have to. I am very happy with the current state of the EU, our contribution and not the slightest bit bothered about migrants or for that matter the irrelevancy of the 8 million economically inactive.
That nice Mr Clegg agrees with me :)
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I'm sorry but you haven't provided or substsantiated your figures, in my view - Britain's EU membership has increased markedly since 2006 - thanks to Blair and Brown - it would be interesting to see Britain soaring at the top of EU gross or NET contributors to the EU calculated on the proportion of economically active Brits resident in the UK for UK tax.
With the greatest respect - I'm not getting at you pessonally as I agree with much of what you say and write - but the figures we're being given on the EU by Brown, particularly, are spin meistered gems of misinformation and as deliberately hiding the true scale of UK's economic problems and how much the UK is over-contributing to the EU as still paying for the lions share of EU defence with troops still in Germany/Bosnia/Kosovo etc.
The EU is a statistical economic mess and meaningfull analysis is not possible - you don't know and I don't know the answer to these fairly routine questions - that would show if the EU is working for the EU properly in terms of net gross contributions, immigration and many other contributions/issues.
Even the main EU statistics are a few years out of date!
Our government does not even know how many people Brits/immigrants are now in the UK - so how does it know how many Brits are working in Europe when there is no reliable mechanism for recording these vital statistics.
Our government/police keep the DNA of innocent people but fail to track down serious terrorists and illegal immigrant criminals - So what chance do we have arguing about non-existent Euro stats that are just concocted in time to spread misinformation for the general election?
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155
He is an economic terrorist in my view, you disagree, your right
He is a compulsive liar, and I believe his sucking up to Nick Clegg is very much the action of a man thinking of self interest
Again you disagree
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156. At 8:07pm on 18 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
#150
"Is this going to be discussed in time for the general election?"
In a word NO
It is totally irrelevant.
Calm down. Nice Mr Brown and nice Mr Clegg will make it all better.
Cameron will be joining the 'economically inactive', or should it be economically illiterate.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
8? 9? or 10 million UK adults economically inactive - not going to be discussed in time for the general election?
Brown and Clegg will be an absolute ******** disaster
I did warn you
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#158
"The EU is a statistical economic mess and meaningfull analysis is not possible - you don't know and I don't know the answer to these fairly routine questions - that would show if the EU is working for the EU properly in terms of net gross contributions, immigration and many other contributions/issues."
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The statistics are collected, complicated and there somewhere.
The truth is it does not bother me, it bothers you, so do some digging and enlighten with impartial (not UKIP or BNP) sources.
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#155: "For this reason I want Labour to fail fundamentally so that a new party of the Left can be created out of campaigning on matters relevant to ordinary people."
Stanilic, I wonder what your definition of "Left" looks like, now, in 2010.
By the way. if Labour wins, such a party will arise "from the ashes"; there will be lots of ashes to arise from...
And: the further you are from acts of terror, the easier it is to pray for terrorists' souls.
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161. At 8:40pm on 18 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
#158
"The EU is a statistical economic mess and meaningfull analysis is not possible - you don't know and I don't know the answer to these fairly routine questions - that would show if the EU is working for the EU properly in terms of net gross contributions, immigration and many other contributions/issues."
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The statistics are collected, complicated and there somewhere.
The truth is it does not bother me, it bothers you, so do some digging and enlighten with impartial (not UKIP or BNP) sources.
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So we're back to square one - you're re-quoting statistics on Europe - but where are they - you say that the stats are there... but where?
Brown has already been nationally criticised by most if not all UK opposition parties (even Clegg/Lib Dems I recall) for peddling bent stats on Europe/immigration - and for anyone with a serious interest in economics/Europe/politics - this lack of public access to reliable basic and current factual UK and Eurozone material and stats matters a lot.
The stats are there somewhere - I'll tell you where they are - they're locked in a desk/PC in Brown's spin doctors office in No 10 Downing Street and in the Presidents bureacrats offices in Strasbourg and Brussels!
8-10? million UK adults economically inactive - and effectively you're saying ignore it and the factual basis of this and the related EU stats don't matter or can't be located - I think you've lost a great deal of your economic credibility with that!
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
To all those who are debating about NHS & management waste.
I would like to add my little nugget of info: 'Choose & book' the system introduced so that people can choose at which hospital they can be treated (rather than be assigned one) cost 'only £200m' when introduced in 2005. Now, the question (which I don't have the answer to) is what extra administrative & management resources are required etc etc.
Now the whole raison d'etre behind choose and book was to give patients a choice. Now, this seems a bit silly because surely in a centrally provided health service, the focus should not be on 'consumer choice' but rather ensuring that standards are improved. The whole choose and book thing shows the muddled thinking on the NHS - on one hand wanting to providing free at point of delivery but on the other layering it up with costs more appropriate to the private sector.
I don't know if the figures are available but I seriously wonder if the ongoing cost (ie manpower) of such inititives is worth the bother. I would guess not. give me a NHS without a choice but with a focus on standards rather than appeasing political tastes of the moment any day.
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#157
"So here is my question. What is the EU for?"
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The flippant answer: To annoy most of the people on this board.
The conspiracy theory: Its a covert carefully disguised German empire. Germany does benefit hugely from the enlargement as it provides huge markets and cost effective labour right on her doorstep. Most german cars are now made in eastern europe. This won't last as standards of living increase in the new member states but that illustrates the benefit of membership. Turkey next, then perhaps parts of North Africa.
The truth: Well this takes many forms. The quick answer is that it has an evolving nature. It started out as the Iron and Steel Community the central purpose of which was to reduce German dominance in this area and start the Franco-German love-in. Then we had the EEC, essentially a trading block. Then came the EU driven by France and Germany on the realisation that free trade areas don't work all that well or last (they come and go, usually when one of the member states sees short term advantage, remember NAFTA). The EU is now not just a trade area but a regulatory framework with rules that apply to member states. These rules will increase in scope to eventually cover social policy and taxation.
Essentially humans are cooperative beasts and work best together; this applies to countries also. The EU acts as a counterweight to other power blocks though much improvement is needed.
I doubt very much whether the original founders of the Iron and Steel Community envisaged the current EU.
A lot of useful legislation has come out of Brussels. Examples, maximum hours for commercial drivers (tachograph), legislation on clean beaches, paternity leave. Fine grained legislation that has transformed this country into the wonderful place it is today :). Of course all these regulations we could have without joining anything.
Seriusly, without EU membership we would not have:
The second biggest financial center after New York; the attraction of London is two fold, the English language and EU membership. Bankers from every country in the EU can work in London without a visa.
Inward investment on the same scale. Japanese car makers choose the UK for the skilled work force (now well behaved thanks to Thatcher) and as a bridge head into the EU.
The Schengen agreement is a particular favourite of mine and it is about time it is applied to us. It might help the migrant situation; I am sure that a lot of migrants find it easier to arrive than to leave.
As posted before the UK should have its referendum. Things have reached a point where the UK needs to stop whinging and start playing, or just get out.
The sad truth, for the UK, is that it could have played a part in shaping the EEC and maybe stopped it evolving into the EU. Too late now.
The gist of the Eurosceptic argument is that they like trade but don't like regulations and loss of sovereignty. This country no longer has that choice.
You can't blame the French and Germans shaping the EU to their own ends if the UK won't even 'come out to play'.
The EU does not need the UK.
The UK has to decide whether it needs the EU.
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#165 EmKay. You are underestimating a very serious problem in health provision, which has nothing to do with NHS per se, but of course impinges on its functioning in many ways, one of which you describe. It is the problem of responsibility. There was a lot of clamouring, some of it completely justified, for medicine becoming less paternalistic. I agree with you that the pendulum has swung too far in the patient-driven decision-making direction, but this is a result of a long historical process of empowerment and not something that is organically connected to the way NHS is run. It will take a long time to swing back, and then again it will overshoot its "ideal" mark.
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#164
"8-10? million UK adults economically inactive - and effectively you're saying ignore it and the factual basis of this and the related EU stats don't matter or can't be located - I think you've lost a great deal of your economic credibility with that!"
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Look, a lot of people are classed as economically inactive because they chose either not to work or sign for JSA. I was one of them from late 2007 to mid 2009. Its called choice.
I did not do it because of competition from eastern european migrants.
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#165
"I don't know if the figures are available but I seriously wonder if the ongoing cost (ie manpower) of such inititives is worth the bother. I would guess not. give me a NHS without a choice but with a focus on standards rather than appeasing political tastes of the moment any day."
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People like choice. It gives them a feeling of control.
Though I take your point, if it is your point, that refinements like that do not fit in with the economic reality of the current time.
The advancement in IT and its proper application (the hard bit) makes it easier to offer bespoke services. Is this not a good thing.
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#159
"He is a compulsive liar, and I believe his sucking up to Nick Clegg is very much the action of a man thinking of self interest"
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Another sweeping and rather silly comment.
Brown occasionally gets his facts wrong and finds admitting that a bit difficult. Don't we all.
As for 'sucking up to Nick Clegg' he is merely reading the situation and preparing for a hung parliament. He cares about the future of this country and realizes the danger of a Conservative government.
'Economic terrorist' ?? Silly Kevin.
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As my contribution for the most off topic item do people know that the first free love communes were in Germany long before California in the sixties.
Ah, the benefits of EU membership.
I wait on ishkander to prove me wrong on this as I am sure he will.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/4681832/Foreign-workers-share-of-job-market-almost-doubles-under-Labour-to-record-high.html
The breakdown of British-born workers employed in Europe showed 65,300 worked in Germany and 36,100 in France. There were 41,800 in Spain and 28,200 in Holland.
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Some figures here - Migration Watch have done a quite a lot on this, I'm told, but do not publish all of their own research.
These figures taken from the Telegraph last year - I suspect that many British workers in Europe have since returned home to the UK - I know this, as I myself know one or two who have done this as citing increasing local protectionism and a weaker GBP influencing their decision to return home.
Let's face it - no where near a million Brits working in Europe is it? So why do Brownoffski, Woollas and Sleepy Johnson keep saying this?
Larger countries with larger populations like Germany have integrated e.g Eastern Europe and still probably don't have as high a proportion of their working population as the UK viz a viz their being 'economically inactive'? Therefore, the 'UK per capita taxpayer' EU contributions must be sky high!
Yes - not all of the UK economically inactive can or want to work - but then UK unemployment can't be 2.6 million with up to 10 million economically inactive?
There is a huge problem here with the numbers, cost and lack of tax revenue and fairness?
What are Messrs Brown and Clegg going to do about it - except reform the H of C/L's to make sure that they are both permanently 'elected'?
Massive problems here for the UK on top of the UK deficit!
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http://www.eu-oplysningen.dk/euo_en/spsv/all/79/
Thanks Denmark! You can give out some basic figures on the EU without any problem!
The UK was catching up Germany by 2007; with the UK being the 2nd largest net contributor and with a lot smaller population base and a smaller proportion of adults 'economically inactive'?
The UK puts in more than France!
The last 3 years figures will be interesting!
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#154
Are you really that unintelligent to not understand that you provided no statistics or sources to underpin the quote that I gave you?
The whole purpose of my post was to highlight your hypocracy . You are prefectly prepared to call people liars and then get upset when the epitath is applied to you. Your reply proves my point for me.
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#173
"The UK was catching up Germany by 2007; with the UK being the 2nd largest net contributor and with a lot smaller population base and a smaller proportion of adults 'economically inactive'?
The UK puts in more than France!"
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A good source of data but some observations...
'Catching up Germany by 2007' - Germany's net contribution will slip for one obvious reason, the absorption of 18 million east Germans.
'More than France' - France benefits from CAP; inefficient farmers, the main driver for Thatcher's rebate.
The UK is not a poor country - fifth biggest economy in the world - so what is the problem with our contribution.
The main problem, answering my own question, is that it is a waste of money if we do not play a part in the EU and leverage to our advantage.
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174. At 10:41pm on 18 Apr 2010, foredeckdave wrote:
#154
Are you really that unintelligent to not understand that you provided no statistics or sources to underpin the quote that I gave you?
The whole purpose of my post was to highlight your hypocracy . You are prefectly prepared to call people liars and then get upset when the epitath is applied to you. Your reply proves my point for me.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
More than happy to oblige - see 172 particularly and 173
My original post was about the lack of reliable and up to date EU statistics - its hardly my position to have to provide EU stats to the EU/UK government is it?
Labour govt/Brown's claim to 1 million Brits working in Euroland (as used by RD) is nonsense - Telegraph and Migration watch had this figure under 300,000 just about a year ago and many have returned home since/ in Euro recession.
Try and figure it out - or, better still, provide some figures yourself!
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#162 trulypuzzled,
Stanilic will have to give you is view of what a new party of the left would look like.
For my part I would like to see a true Socialist Party that was dedicated to increase the national wealth (economic and social) via a cooperative mixed-market economy. To underpin this economy I would wish to see the State take ownership of all of our utilities (though I would want to see these utilities protected from intereference by political parties).
Whilst not totally endorseing German or French socialist models, there are elemens there that can give us a good start point from which to develop socialistic policies that are suitable for the UK.
There is not enough space here to really explore these ideas further in a single post. However, for me, it must be clearly understood that I would seek a true cooperation between capital and labour in which both the corporate and social can be attained.
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#172
The number of EU citizens working in other member states if you think about it is irrelevant given the nature of the EU; we are all citizens of the EU and there is little point in tracking movement given the open borders.
Think about it this way, should people be tracked if they live in Kent and work in Essex.
For this reason I doubt that the EU collects that sort of data any more than the UK authorities collect data on people from Sussex working in Kent; what for.
I accept it matters to you. For my part I live in the EU and borders don't matter nor does it matter where people work.
I do agree that enlargement was badly handled.
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175. At 11:01pm on 18 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
#173
"The UK was catching up Germany by 2007; with the UK being the 2nd largest net contributor and with a lot smaller population base and a smaller proportion of adults 'economically inactive'?
The UK puts in more than France!"
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A good source of data but some observations...
'Catching up Germany by 2007' - Germany's net contribution will slip for one obvious reason, the absorption of 18 million east Germans.
'More than France' - France benefits from CAP; inefficient farmers, the main driver for Thatcher's rebate.
The UK is not a poor country - fifth biggest economy in the world - so what is the problem with our contribution.
The main problem, answering my own question, is that it is a waste of money if we do not play a part in the EU and leverage to our advantage.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Really?
We could become a New Switzerland - make chocolate, Drink Gluvein - most of all - mind our own business and ... still do very good business with all of Europe - even China has passed its own EU regulations/ laws to do trade in Eurozone - and is beating us hands down and in our own back yard and its not even a EU member!
EU membership is a complete 'red herring' and money drain to the UK!
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#176
"My original post was about the lack of reliable and up to date EU statistics - its hardly my position to have to provide EU stats to the EU/UK government is it?"
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My point in #178 is that these figures are both irrelevant and impossible to calculate.
The lack of data is only a problem for people who hold the position that there is a sharp distinction between the UK and say France, and this distinction is not the same the difference between Sussex and say Kent.
I imagine this lack of data is deeply upsetting to be people wedded to the view of the UK as a sovereign independent state in charge of its own destiny.
I don't fall into this last group.
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178. At 11:20pm on 18 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
#172
The number of EU citizens working in other member states if you think about it is irrelevant given the nature of the EU; we are all citizens of the EU and there is little point in tracking movement given the open borders.
Think about it this way, should people be tracked if they live in Kent and work in Essex.
For this reason I doubt that the EU collects that sort of data any more than the UK authorities collect data on people from Sussex working in Kent; what for.
I accept it matters to you. For my part I live in the EU and borders don't matter nor does it matter where people work.
I do agree that enlargement was badly handled.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Gordon Brown and his government are saying that 1 million BRits work in Eurozone and is using this in the general election - to sell their failed immigration policy and legacy mess.
The statement of 1 million British workers in the Eurozone is a nasty lie and is nonsense!
This is not a position the British PM should be taking it is improper and he should resign.
There is a code of behaviour in Parliament that if a Minister lies - they have to go - Brown should GO! GO! GO!
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#179
"We could become a New Switzerland - make chocolate, Drink Gluvein - most of all - mind our own business and ... still do very good business with all of Europe - even China has passed its own EU regulations/ laws to do trade in Eurozone - and is beating us hands down and in our own back yard and its not even a EU member!
EU membership is a complete 'red herring' and money drain to the UK!"
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Yes you are right we could do that but the Swiss, as you point out, have to adhere to EU regulations in order to trade with the EU. Adhering to regulations without having a say in how they are made is a bad deal; isnt that what upset the Americans (War of Independence) no legislation without representation.
Why draw the short straw.
Why is China 'beating us hands down and in our own back yard'; is that the fault of our EU membership or some deeper malaise. If we leave the EU who will we blame for our failings - sun spots.
We can do all these things but don't forget the heads of Japanese car makers and American banks; they are attracted by our EU membership.
You have to make your mind up and go for it.
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#175 >>The UK is not a poor country - fifth biggest economy in the world - so what is the problem with our contribution.
According to this - http://www.economywatch.com/economies-in-top/ - UK is 6th after Germany (5th) in 2008. Since then, the UK got hit by a series of economic problems like the quid devaluing while the Germans have been pumping out ever more exports.
It seems that all this was measured using the PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) method. It means that they measure not just the number of quids but also just how much those quids can buy !!
If they were measuring just plain numbers, then Zimbabwe must top the world list !! A loaf of bread cost 1 trillion Zim dollars !!
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Oh dear !! It seems that Our Glorious Leader is not too popular with most commenters here at the moment !!
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180. At 11:31pm on 18 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
#176
"My original post was about the lack of reliable and up to date EU statistics - its hardly my position to have to provide EU stats to the EU/UK government is it?"
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My point in #178 is that these figures are both irrelevant and impossible to calculate.
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So why are is the inaccurate figure of 1 million Brits working in Europe being used improperly - just to promote a pro EU agenda?
The figures is very relevant when Britain takes in 4 or 5 times the number of EU migrant full time workers as compared to the number of British workers getting full time real jobs in Europe.
This is the theft of British jobs under a failed EU immigration system at a time when 8-10 million Brits - we don't even know the number - are economically inactive.
The numbers are not impossible to calculate - they are deliberately not calculated.
No wonder our politicians do not wish to talk about the issue for the general election - especially Brown and Clegg
I can see that you will also keep evading the question!
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182. At 00:22am on 19 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
#179
"We could become a New Switzerland - make chocolate, Drink Gluvein - most of all - mind our own business and ... still do very good business with all of Europe - even China has passed its own EU regulations/ laws to do trade in Eurozone - and is beating us hands down and in our own back yard and its not even a EU member!
EU membership is a complete 'red herring' and money drain to the UK!"
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Yes you are right we could do that but the Swiss, as you point out, have to adhere to EU regulations in order to trade with the EU. Adhering to regulations without having a say in how they are made is a bad deal; isnt that what upset the Americans (War of Independence) no legislation without representation.
Why draw the short straw.
Why is China 'beating us hands down and in our own back yard'; is that the fault of our EU membership or some deeper malaise. If we leave the EU who will we blame for our failings - sun spots.
We can do all these things but don't forget the heads of Japanese car makers and American banks; they are attracted by our EU membership.
You have to make your mind up and go for it.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The Chinese have volunteered to harmonise with EU to effect trade - but make no contributions and are not stuck with EU trade laws etc. - completely different.
US war of independence was about taxation without representation - so again nothing to do with the EU
We did make up our mind and went for it in the 1970's and the result is 8 -10 million economically inactive adults and Britain paralysed with human rights and other EU legislation loss of everything - sovereignty, jobs and the benefit of trade which has always been there and always will be as e.g the Spanish will always try and sell Oranges to the Brits because we cannot grow them
Quite simple and straightforward really?
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#185 #186
"I can see that you will also keep evading the question!"
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The figures from MigrationWatch are suspect - they are not independent and have an agenda.
As for Brown's one million, I have heard this figure from other sources. I suggest you contact the Downing Street web site and ask your question.
The true figure, as always, is somewhere between the two, say 500,000.
But do you really want to take employment opportunity away from these UK citizens.
As for leaving the EU and going it alone good luck.
The EU is the UK's biggest export market, it is not China's biggest export market. Leaving would just load the dice further against the UK.
As for 'evading the question' I am not. The numbers are irrelevant given freedom of movement within the EU.
Can you give me figures for the number of Sussex people working in Kent and Essex. Your answer should include the words 'irrelevant' and 'why'.
"We did make up our mind and went for it in the 1970's and the result is 8 -10 million economically inactive adults and Britain paralysed with human rights "
Fantasy. EEC / EU membership has nothing to do with '8 -10 million economically inactive adults' and as for EU legislation I don't feel paraylysed.
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187. At 08:13am on 19 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
#185 #186
"I can see that you will also keep evading the question!"
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The figures from MigrationWatch are suspect - they are not independent and have an agenda.
As for Brown's one million, I have heard this figure from other sources. I suggest you contact the Downing Street web site and ask your question.
The true figure, as always, is somewhere between the two, say 500,000.
But do you really want to take employment opportunity away from these UK citizens.
As for leaving the EU and going it alone good luck.
The EU is the UK's biggest export market, it is not China's biggest export market. Leaving would just load the dice further against the UK.
As for 'evading the question' I am not. The numbers are irrelevant given freedom of movement within the EU.
Can you give me figures for the number of Sussex people working in Kent and Essex. Your answer should include the words 'irrelevant' and 'why'.
"We did make up our mind and went for it in the 1970's and the result is 8 -10 million economically inactive adults and Britain paralysed with human rights "
Fantasy. EEC / EU membership has nothing to do with '8 -10 million economically inactive adults' and as for EU legislation I don't feel paraylysed.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Back to square one - the figure of 1 million Brits working full time in Europe - I see that you now concede that this figure is incorrect and I think is probably less than the figure reported last year by Migration watch (although you choose to arbitrarily inflate it to 500,000 without any justification) - and Migration Watch is now the UK's only main independent and reliable source of immigration numbers and data.
What I and the electorate need is just the facts and accurate data - its not my job to chase Downing Street/Whitehall for figures - its their job to properly provide this information to the public - that is why they are in government and many are over-paid for doing so.
The EU has a massive effect on the UK including million of Brits on the dole - who are not like you an 'I'm allright Jack' well off Europen travellers who doesn't have to work ... and one of the lucky 1 in 200 Brits who realises significant benefit from Britain being in the EU
In addition to 8 million economically inactive are about several million Brits who cannot claim employment benefits because they are paid but are extremely low paid and struggling to find jobs and decent wage rates due to foreign workers operating below the radar and as 'self employed'.
I understand that you are in favour of the EU - I'm more concerned about the 100+ in every 200 Brits who loose out significantly because of Britain's EU membership - upon which UKIP says the true costs of Britain's EU membership is tens of billions a year - due to waste, bureacracy, over regulation and higher costs and lost opportunities.
The issue is the 15 million? economically active and/or very low paid workers - many who work are getting progressively poorer as their living standards drop - as being a EU member and 'bureacracy paralysed over-contrbutor'?
No solution for this regarding the EU is there? The EU is supposed to create jobs and raise living standards - the opposite is applying to tens of millions of Brits and many realise that the EU is not working for the many in Britain.
Bad, politicised government bent statistics do not help!
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Another house price survey out showing another massive monthly increase in prices. This is the effect from the massive government intervention in the housing market, why aren't they being quizzed by the media about fuelling another ruinious boom? They have learned absolutely nothing from the credit crunch.
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Back to the point me thinks.....
Greece is the tip of the Euro Zone iceberg. You have a number of others bobbing just under the surface and will very likely sink the ship if they are not very careful. Growing pains I think I read earlier in this Blog. No, just ill conceived policy of growth and growth at any cost. Greece should never have got into the Euro as it's finances never stood up to scrutiny. The major players just wanted a larger group hopping that size would bolster its credibility. There were no safe guards put in place and very little regulation and with no central body managing these economies then this was and still is a disaster in the making.
As I said some time ago it is not just Greece that is the problem it is the rest of the PIIGS. If it were just Greece the big players could just about to manage but with the others now starting to line up there is a sense of panic starting. The EU have already warned a number of the PIIGS about their fiscal propriety with Portugal being the the last.
The IMF is also having a funding crisis of its own, China and the US are not in a position to keep on bank rolling it so there may well be some cut backs required with regards to the extent it can step in and offer support. Iceland is the last of several who have gone back to the IMF looking for further funding in recent days.
Strangely though if Greece and a couple of the other PIIGS were expelled from the Euro it would strengthen the currency rather than weaken it. It would also give the EU some credibility because at present they are seen as weak and ineffectual not wanting to make the tough calls and take action to rectify the situation. If the EU had acted when the Greek fiasco started this would have been put to bed a long time ago. However this was not the case and it has left them vulnerable with the hawks circling waiting for their moment to step in for the killing. Yes we can see them all being lined up like lambs for the slaughter. The question for a number of people is not Greece for they see that as a foregone conclusion but who is to be next. Portugal appears to be favorite but there are a couple who a vying for that position. Ireland for one is not doing so well and has already slipped back on a number of its early moves to save money and takes cost out of the public sector. Spain is also suffering and there is very little hope of recovery on their horizon.
It needs to be back to the drawing board for the EURO and get the basics in place for the security of that currency. And this time membership must be better policed..........
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#188
"Back to square one - the figure of 1 million Brits working full time in Europe - I see that you now concede that this figure is incorrect and I think is probably less than the figure reported last year by Migration watch (although you choose to arbitrarily inflate it to 500,000 without any justification) - and Migration Watch is now the UK's only main independent and reliable source of immigration numbers and data."
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My key point is that the number is irrelevant, and I have given my reasons.
It is certainly not my remit to provide numbers. I also very honestly admit that like most people I accept numbers that suit my position.
Note: UKIP will let New Labour in.
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162 trylypuzzled
I am from the libertarian left which means I believe that through cooperation ordinary people are well able to provide their own solutions to the complexities of everyday life. They do not need an authority either in the form of a proprietor or a government to tell them what to do. If an authority has any role it is to facilitate people to take control of their own lives.
My exposure to terrorism has been in mediation to prevent acts of violence. This is why I pray for the souls of terrorists in the hope they can get to see the error of their ways. You may feel that this is futile, a thought I had at the time so I can understand that view, but when I reflect I know the mediation prevented some death and injury of the innocent. It wasn't enough but it was all I could do at the time. This does not mean that wider society should not arrest and imprison terrorists.
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191. At 09:00am on 19 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
#188
"Back to square one - the figure of 1 million Brits working full time in Europe - I see that you now concede that this figure is incorrect and I think is probably less than the figure reported last year by Migration watch (although you choose to arbitrarily inflate it to 500,000 without any justification) - and Migration Watch is now the UK's only main independent and reliable source of immigration numbers and data."
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My key point is that the number is irrelevant, and I have given my reasons.
It is certainly not my remit to provide numbers. I also very honestly admit that like most people I accept numbers that suit my position.
Note: UKIP will let New Labour in.
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I accept that the number is irrelevent to you!
A vote for any party/candidate except a Conservative party candidate - probably means 5 more years of Gordon Brown/Labour party in 'control'?
The Conservatives should have stuck to offering a referendum of some kind; on Eurozone issues - this may now cost them a general election victory i.e. by not having a proper debate on why EU is not working for the UK (that is not the same as saying the UK must withdraw from the EU).
The 'Gordon Brown non-flying circus act' remark (mine I admit)... is not in any way funny ... but is now a sign of things to come!
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Other interesting things are happening too....
RBS shares hit 50p today ....
.......which is approximately break-even point for HMG.
And mortgage lending is up on Feb levels, despite stamp duty rise and not taking into account new stamp duty exemptions ......
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8629106.stm
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189
The house price rises are not massive, they are part of the natural drift back to 2008 values and the longterm trend compatible with population growth, demographic changes and longterm economic growth.
And this return to normality, although appearing as price increases, is simply restoring equity and improving creditworthiness and reducing risk and exposure of banks.
Toxic is now looking tasty!
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195
According to a number of the financial institutions we are not yet at the bottom and this current blip is just a bounce. As far as long term economic growth is concerned you must be looking at different data to the rest of us. The question at present is not about growth but rather are we fully out of recession or just bumping along the bottom.
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"184. At 01:38am on 19 Apr 2010, ishkandar wrote:
Oh dear !! It seems that Our Glorious Leader is not too popular with most commenters here at the moment !!"
**
Well not just on here. This following report from the Daily Torygraph (dated 17 April) which I posted on an other thread is worth noting again...…
“Mr Brown's impersonation of a robot, and his projection of all the charm of a caravan site in February, were pretty predictable: the place where hair was really being torn out yesterday was around poor old Dave. The attempt by this trust-funded Old Etonian (and old Bullingdonian) to come over as mr ordinary was rather tragic: if we have to hear much more about his children’s state school and his family’s experience of the NHS, some of us will need medical attention of our own.”
"[Dave] needs to win a pile of seats from the Lib Dems. On last night's show, that is going to be a tall order: and if he fouls up again, the Lib Dems might even start winning seats from him."
Seems there is growing panic within the tribe...
Anyone would think it had been written by Richard Dingle…
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#196 Chris London,
It is a certainty that the present situation is merely a blip. If we take the hurricane metaphor we are probably in the 'eye' of this storm. Unfortunately, we are entering hurricane season and the likelyhood is that it is going to be a very active season.
Whilst we bang-on about deficit, the Eurozone fears for the wellbeing of the currency, Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland are desperate for some relief, etc. etc. Absoluely nothing has been done to fix the international financial problems that got us here in the first place. Debt, national, commercial and personal still continues to grow; the toxic assets may be hidden but still exist; the western economies imbalance of trade has not been addressed. All that we have seen is emergency stimulous actions that have not stimulated but consumed massive amounts of resource.
So when the next hurricane (crisis) strikes we will have nothing left with which to protect ourselves.
I predict that we will 'bump along' for a few more months until something even nastier appears out of the woodwork. After that......?
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#190 >>The IMF is also having a funding crisis of its own, China and the US are not in a position to keep on bank rolling it so there may well be some cut backs required with regards to the extent it can step in and offer support.
This is not strictly true. It's the Americans that are blocking the funding because they cannot afford to do it themselves *AND* they refuse to relinquish their large share of the votes !!
The BRIC countries are very willing and eagber to bankroll the IMF *PROVIDED* there is a reorganisatoin of its voting rights in accordance with the funding available. Furthermore, as I have posted earlier, the BRIC countries want the SDRs (Special Drawing Rights) to be an international reserve currency. It's the Americans that are blocking these moves because it will mean that the US$ will no longer be the reserve currency for most of the growing, developing nations and the US *NEEDS* them to keep buying its debts so it can fund its good life !!
Meanwhile, the East Asians are moving slowly but steadily into the world's biggest trading bloc - ASEAN+5. the "+5" currently consists of China, Japan, South Korea, India and Australia with Kiwiland waiting in the wings to join. Pakistan's attempts at joining were blocked by the Indians !! Between them, they have 3 of the 4 largest economies in the world and nearly 1/2 the world's population as their consumers within their own borders !!
China, alone, is larger than the entire Eurozone and has 4 times the population !! Throw in Japan and India and the sun will surely rise in the East !!
Squabbling over Greece and Portugal and "will they, won't they" will not have a hugely significant effect on the world's economy !! OTOH, if America went bust, things will definitely look dire !!
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Come on Stephanie - I know you're the 'Economics editor' - but Goldman is the US Government
...so it's fair game....
Any news from the Greeks? - at least they know they can improve their BoP with their best import - tourism.....unless of course the no fly zone stays in place all summer.
I think the Greek yield on the 10Yr just hit a new record! of 7.631%.
I have had a little party in their honour - not many came, just some shorters and speculating hedge funds - most people are down on this news.
....so how long until the IMF makes the call? - 2 days?, 3 days?
Bookies have stopped taking bets.
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195. At 10:42am on 19 Apr 2010, onward-ho wrote:
"The house price rises are not massive, they are part of the natural drift back to 2008 values and the longterm trend compatible with population growth, demographic changes and longterm economic growth.
And this return to normality, although appearing as price increases, is simply restoring equity and improving creditworthiness and reducing risk and exposure of banks.
Toxic is now looking tasty!"
Sorry onward-ho - did you forget we're in a record low interest rate environment?
IF you read your history - the fall in the house market is prompted by the increase in interest rates - not the period where Governments are trying to reinflate the Economy.
The scary part is those who have been repo'd since 2007 were in such a tight squeeze any slight change in Economic conditions flattened them - but not interest rates rising. All those price falls since 2007 are nothing - merely the 'sludge off the bottom of the bucket' - when rates rise we will see the cream mortgage holders go down...KABOOM - including those who have bought during the last 2 years who will assume the rates we have are what they will be like forever.
Like cannon fodder they are.
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#199 ishkandar,
The development of ASEAN+5 is going to be a very long and very slow process. The fact that you have a large population has not proved to be a major stimulous to their economies so far. Both China and India have bloated their economies on the back of globalisation. It will be difficult and painful for both economies when the Western demand becomes a mere trickle. As with many commentators you are been blinded by the growth numbers achived and not the underlying strategic problems.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
In my post of 128, I mentioned the unfairness of deriding Gordon Brown because of his mannerisms and I went on to say that I had some admiration for him. I was not complaining about anyone in particular because, unfortunately, I do not have time to read all the blogs in detail.
I liked the replies to my blog. I liked Richard Dingle because he shared my views but I also liked stanilic because he explained in a logical manner why he disagreed with me. Man is different from the animals because of the size of his brain and it is by using that brain to think differently that mankind moves forward.
I would reply to stanilic at 143
Voting at an election is about choosing what we think will be the nearest policies to what we would like. No one party will give us exactly what we want and, even if we got exactly what we wanted, there is every possibility that we would find that it would not work. So, when I said that I thought that Gordon Brown was a statesman, I did not mean that I agreed with everything he had done. I was talking about the overall picture.
A lot of people are making the rescue of the banks and the consequent apparent government debt a party political issue. In fact, you are doing that by saying that they did not act quickly enough over Northern Rock.
Again, I would not blame him because three agencies were not doing what they should have been doing. That is assuming that it would not have happened had the Bank of England been acting alone.
Gold has gone extremely high in price because of the Credit Crunch so you are right in this particular circumstance but things could have been different. Besides that, the savings on interest since 1999 must be taken into account. But look at Thatcher selling off all the state industries too cheaply.
I understood that pensions were ‘invested ‘ in stock market companies. The £90m remuneration packages for the Chief Executives of these companies do not seem to have damaged the savings culture in this country so I don’t think the fact that the government has raised some money from pensions will have damaged that culture either. Perhaps some pensions held shares in the banks that were bailed out so this would have helped pensions and the savings culture.
I remember the manufacturing jobs lost under Thatcher. I remember seeing all the factories being demolished and the pits closed. The effects can still be seen on our landscape. I have not seen that at present so I would like to see figures on that. Thatcher was also the one who deregulated the City so her policies are still to blame even there.
Two rates of inflation are given now including the old one that you prefer.
I think that Gordon Brown was right to try and obtain consensus on action because it was a global problem and it was necessary to stop the action of one country being undone by the action of another.
When it comes to choosing who to vote for, I will go on the history of the Tories. They doubled unemployment when last in and, when they had direct control of interest rates, they increased the base rate to 15%. In my eyes, that is far worse than anything negative that Brown has done. At the time they left office, UK debt may not have been as great, but neither was there an international Credit Crunch of this size. Also, under the Tories there should have not been as big a debt because they had the money from the 40 state companies that they sold off including oil, water, electricity, gas, rail, BA and BAA. All of these companies were sold off too cheaply. Also, wouldn’t the debt now be less if this government had sold them off in recent years. But I also think that we are getting a lot for our money, not only in the NHS where I think people are alive now who would not have been alive under the Tories, but also in education where many of our local state schools are far superior to our local fee paying school.
But I don’t think the Tories are good for Britain in other ways. They are called Conservatives because they want to keep the rich rich. That makes for a static rather than a dynamic country and that is no good for anyone. New ideas are squashed by those with power and money. The Tories want to run the country as a kind of Monarchy with money (power) being passed down generation to generation. Some people have talked about Britain being great again. That will only happen if we become more dynamic by reducing the power of wealth and if we use the talents of all Britons not just the rich.
I do not think we have a benefits culture. I spent some time in Nigeria and, at first, I was disappointed that they seemed to have poor houses but good audio equipment. Then I realised that they would never be able to afford better houses so they were right to spend their money on audio equipment. Similarly, in this country, we should not blame the people our system keeps poor for being poor. If we want them to use their talents for the good of the country, then we must enable them to do that.
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That's the problem with contagion - it's so......contagious?
"The spread between 10-year Portuguese and German bonds nearing 150 bps while the Spread between 10-year Greek/German bonds continue to widen to all-time post Euro launch levels; nearing 470bps"
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160. At 8:23pm on 18 Apr 2010, nautonier
IMO this is now the almost unstoppable result of the election so we will all get to test your hypothesis. The wheels appear to have fallen off the Conservative battle bus. I wait to see how they attempt to glue them back on; if they do then it will be a genuinely masterful piece of politics.
Personally I have no remaining faith in the ability of the Conservative party and their backers to deliver a more egalitarian future for the people of this country. Their message in this campaign appears weak; they seem to have hoped to get past the post on anti Mr Brown sentiment and this strategy has now fallen apart. Whatever the answer might be to our current and future problems it no longer lies in that direction. I believe the majority of the people of this country now understand this.
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204. At 1:57pm on 19 Apr 2010, Fairsfair
Good post.
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#177 "For my part I would like to see a true Socialist Party that was dedicated to increase the national wealth (economic and social) via a cooperative mixed-market economy. To underpin this economy I would wish to see the State take ownership of all of our utilities (though I would want to see these utilities protected from intereference by political parties)."
I like the cut of your jib, however I feel that the old statist model can be improved on. I think that the obvious ownership structure for the utilities is as consumer co-operatives. Instead of trying to achieve political objectives through regulation we as consumers could balance our needs for low-cost products and services against decent working conditions, the need for sustainable output, and elect a board that delivered the best balance. There is already a successful model in telecomms (The Phone Co-op) and water (Glas Cymru) so water, electricity and gas could all be mutualised to beneficial effect.
What is underpinning much of the debate on this and other posts following this blog, is the belief that there is a "race to the bottom" in terms of cutting wages, public sector services, pensions, etc. This is because capitalism, or the free-market economy, has exhausted its potential for development. It is interesting that the many free-market apologists on this blog insist that this is medicine that has to be taken to improve competitiveness, without stopping to consider where the rewards from such increased competitiveness go. If the benefits from a more compatitive economy go in banker's bonuses, ceo salaries, luxury yachts and Lear jets for Sarah Palin, and not to improved public services and a better standard of living for myself and my family and friends, then don't expect me to sign up to it. Wages are now at their lowest share of GDP for many years, so don't be surprised that most wage earners are underenthused by market solutions.
I feel that I am now a conservative, not because I support neo-liberal market solutions, but the opposite: because I want to preserve what is good in our society from the free-market fundamentalists. A friend has just fought an unsuccessful campaign against a supermarket in Ottery St Mary which will destroy all the small shopkeepers and produce another soul-less clone-town. So I would want to preserve our High Streets (much like most other Europeans manage to do), I want to preserve the NHS, and comprehensive (in its true sense) education. I want to preserve what is left of our manufacturing and our skilled trades. In fact I want to conserve the post-war social contract which was so successful for thirty years (and which continues to drive German social and economic thinking). Many contributors insist that I can't have this and free-market capitalism, in which case the choice is clear.
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75. At 2:53pm on 17 Apr 2010, Stephanieskinkyboots wrote:
If you really think that the increase in NI will stop Tesco and their ilk from taking on new staff to keep obscene profits rolling in for shareholder dividend
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Shareholders aren't impressed by over-large dividends - in fact it makes them suspicious. Wise investors like to see profit (which is NOT obscene) being reinvested for future growth.
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204 FairsFair
"But look at Thatcher selling off all the state industries too cheaply."
This is a highly contestable point. A large reason most of them were sold cheaply because they were poorly managed and not as profitable as they should have been. You can't really say if they were sold too cheaply if they hadn't been made more efficient by private sector management. The sale of gold is not really comparable as it is a physical asset which just sits there in a vault, keeping its value.
"But I don’t think the Tories are good for Britain in other ways. They are called Conservatives because they want to keep the rich rich."
Do you want to make the rich, poor? Hurting rich people does not help poor people. Most well off people are well off because they work hard and are intelligent. Throwing money at people on benefits will do nothing to alleviate the poverty of aspiration and the lack of will to find any kind of work.
"They doubled unemployment when last in and, when they had direct control of interest rates, they increased the base rate to 15%."
Perhaps you prefer the current situation where the economy is teetering on the brink with interest rates at 0.5% and absolutely nowhere else to go. As a lagging indicator, unemployment will rise as surely as day follows night after a Labour government has run the economy into the ground.
"but also in education where many of our local state schools are far superior to our local fee paying school."
ROFL
"The Tories want to run the country as a kind of Monarchy with money (power) being passed down generation to generation. "
This is an area where I despise GB. Freezing IHT at 325,000 is nothing short of scandalous. People having to move from their homes where they have lived all their life to pay the tax man. The money used to pay for the home has already been taxed. Why should it be taxed again? What do you have against money being passed down to dependents?
"I do not think we have a benefits culture."
Pension credits is one example of where GB has destroyed the incentive to save for people on low incomes. With marginal tax rates higher than millionaires they may as well not have bothered.
A further question for you to ponder. How fair was it to scrap the 10p tax rate to fund a cut in the basic rate? For me this is the most cynical and despicable acts I have ever seen. Apart from that I think GB is a great guy.
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204 Fairsfair
The debt is a political issue for the simple reason it has left the country close to bankruptcy. If that isn't a political issue then what is?
Not all of that debt is down to the banks as it was known that the UK government was running a deficit in the region of GBP 40 billion for year 2008/9. This ballooned for year 2009/10 when the banks went belly up because the income budgeted originally to come from the banks did not appear and the government made no attempt to reduce spending to adjust for the shortfall in income. This was a political decision.
We are also being told that the public purse will benefit when the government finally sells off its holding in RBS, Lloyds and the rest. I hope so but will this clear the debt? I don't think so.
in the old days before the tripartite regulatory system was introduced by Mr. Brown the directors of an offending bank would find themselves invited to take sherry with the Governor of the Bank of England. The Deputy Governor then harangued the offenders about their bad behaviour eventually sending them back to their offices to repair their market positions. Very old fashioned; but it worked for over three hundred years.
The government has taken about GBP 6 billion a year out of pension funds. This has to be added to the additional money taken out by the administrators which the regulators did not prevent. This has all helped to collapse the private pension sector.
If you are unsure about the affect of Labour's industrial policy then look around most industrial estates and count the estate agent boards. These are not the smokestack industries that disappeared under Thatcher but lots of small engineering, electronic and electrical businesses which could not compete with cheaper imports from China.
Like most Labour supporters you are more concerned about recounting the evils of the Tories. Sorry, I am not interested in what you think of the Tories I need to know what you are going to do. Sadly, apart from a debateable manifesto you can't tell me what you are going to do about the debt as you just don't have a clue. I can understand that as it is huge. I don't know what to about the debt either; but I am not running for public office.
Whoever gets into power next month is going to have to make harsh cuts in the public sector. I agree with Mr. Darling when he says that what Thatcher did will be nothing compared with the coming cuts. She had a mandate to cut, she had oil money to fall back on, so she had some metal with which to confront the shortsellers of sterling. The next government will be naked before the financial markets so consequently we will all have to pay for that thanks to Mr. Brown's statesmanlike behaviour. Remember Harold Wilson and the Gnomes of Zurich? It is going to happen all over again, only this time it will be double-plus worse.
As to systems keeping the poor in their place, then I suggest you look at the tax and benefit system that Labour implemented. A poor family seeking to improve their lot through working hard suffer a marginal level of income tax greater than even the richest banker as they loose benefits faster than the extra income they earn. This system was set up by Gordon Brown and to my mind ressembles the old Speenhamland system that deprived the worker of a rightful income.
Lastly, I am not arguing for a Tory government. I am arguing against a return of the Labour government who have proved themselves to be an incompetent administration. This might mean that we do get a Tory administration. It won't make that much difference as they will then have to deal with the deficit and the debt.
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#204 Fairsfair
Interesting post - and now I have more insight which explains a few things.
Firstly, your point about Gordon Brown and the banking regulation overlooks the fact that Brown as Chancellor directly restructured the system which meant nobody was actually accountable and also turned a blind eye to the warning signs from 2003 onwards (in the case of NR and B&B and latterly HBOS business models). The case can be strongly made that Brown was too interested in the taxation from financial services to feed his 'appetite'.
Secondly, you abrogate (direct) responsibility for Brown - you do exactly the opposite in terms of Thatcher with regard to blaming her for the manufacturing /mines decline in the 80s, i.e. double standards.
Truth is these issues were created long before and were an overhang from the 70s (the rot setting in the 60s). The country having gone to the IMF previously had no money to rescue these, notwithstanding the business case for using taxpayers money on what would have been dubious investments.
Its a false assumption to state Conservatives only represent the rich and a brilliant myth by left-leaning individuals for far too long.
There are many working class, like my father, who is similar to many others, who has supported Conservatives re values and opportunities to do well. I am probably classed as 'middle-class' (whatever that means) and certainly don't see the Conservatives as being rich-focused.
Also your point regarding interest rates in the early 89/90s is somewhat disingenuous. The 15% was for a relatively short period (12 months) and was done when in fact there was less control over interest rates because of the ERM debacle (which should be a warning sign for present day intentions). For more see [Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]
What is more the losses associated with this event pale into insignificance when compared to the Gold selling and financial 'rescue' (note the inverted commas) under Labour.
Your argument regarding not having a benfits culture isn't borne out by facts and your comparison with Nigeria is, I would argue, rather naive and totally misrepresentative (apart from perhaps state corruption)....
Thus your attempt of a balanced reasoned argument is somewhat undone by the biased assertions you make and certain questionable rationale you use.
Trust that helps without going into too much detail.......
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#206 Squarepaeg
As opposed to Labour with their anti-conservative stance and LibDem wit their anti Labour/Conservative stance you mean?
Labour have provided nothing but 'smear and fear' and the Libdems are hoping nobody looks too closely at their policies - fantastic - not.
At least the Conservatives appear to have put some thought into the process whatever you may think.
And I see a hung parliament or Lib-Lab coalition is somehow going to magically rescue us, given your statement. Your argument appears to be bereft of logic.
Could you please provide me with some researched logic - I'd be most obliged........
Also re #207 comment see mine at #212 for further evaluation.
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#202 Foredeckdave
I tend to agree with Ishkandar on this one.
"The development of ASEAN+5 is going to be a very long and very slow process. The fact that you have a large population has not proved to be a major stimulous to their economies so far. Both China and India have bloated their economies on the back of globalisation. It will be difficult and painful for both economies when the Western demand becomes a mere trickle. As with many commentators you are been blinded by the growth numbers achived and not the underlying strategic problems."
When you say very long and very slow what exactly do you mean? Also China's enormous population is producing the very real enormous stimilus. Also what do you mean by 'bloated'.
China's population today is 1.35 billion. Of which 45% now live in cities. This is an incredible rate of urbanisation since in 2000 the figure was 37% and in 1990 jut 28%. By 2020 which is only 10 years away the figure is expected to reach 56%. This means another 150 million Chinese will leave the countryside forever in just 10 years. The rate of building is quite amazing. Go and see it. The Chinese are simply building new cities for these people wherever they find a space; rising out of the ground from nothing in months, new airports, roads, infrastructure, power stations (much of it coal powered - no worries about global warming tax there). Shanghai port is simply unbelievable. Not just the mile after mile of boxes being exported to the US and Europe, which incidentally now only make up 35% of their exports but the mile after mile of boxes being imported from mainly Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Currently, China's people account for 9.3% of global consumption. In 2007 it was 5.3%. An incredible rise. By 2020 again just 10 years away it will top 21%. The money the Chinese people have saved is huge. They have attained a savings rate of 50% and when they start spending some of it. Well you will see. Painful at times for sure but the Asian people in general understand pain and sacrafice.
China is not just a bubble waiting to pop or an idea. China is a near unstopable machine taking over the planet and it is they who are going to dictate much of the next chapter in human history. By the time you throw in India, Brazil and a couple of other emerging markets you soon see the sun is really setting on a glorious 300 year run for the west. Soon (a few years) our purchases will be less important to the Chinese than keeping their currency low and then we will all know who is rich and who is poor. We will be unable to buy much of what we take for granted. As many have stated many times its our children and grandchildren that we are robbing.
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I think WOTW must be chuckling away as the current political status brings us closer to his/her (UK) armageddon scenario (excluding the world for the moment).
One thing Cameron overlooked re the decision to go TV debate is he hadn't realised how many watching thought that they were actually watching the X-factor instead. Sums it up really..........yep trhe country gets what it deserves................
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201 wotw
Actually a lot of the credit crunch and housing crash was due to interest rates rising steadily between 2004-7 and then coming down far too slowly in 2007-8 (even after Northern Rock crashed!) which resulted in mortgage defaults,which resulted in The Great Valuation Crash which precipitated the Banker's Nerve Crash (valuations and loan-to valuation criteria fell before prices and confidence did!).
BoE Base Rates
2003 10 Jul 3.5000
6 Nov 3.7500
2004 5 Feb 4.0000
6 May 4.2500
10 Jun 4.5000
5 Aug 4.7500
2005 4 Aug 4.5000
2006 3 Aug 4.7500
9 Nov 5.0000
2007 11 Jan 5.2500
10 May 5.5000
5 July 5.7500
6 Dec 5.5000
2008 7 Feb 5.2500
10 April 5.0000
8 Oct 4.5000
6 Nov 3.0000
4 Dec 2.0000
2009 8 Jan 1.5000
5 Feb 1.0000
5 Mar 0.5000
source BOE website
However I agree we are in a low interest phase, and it is precisely because we need the housing market to keep gently going back up to 2008 levels and the need to avoid a calamitous crash in prices that we will see these interest rates staying low for quite a long time from now .....everyone but the Tory party realises and remembers the eighties and early nineties .
How could they forget what they did to us then?
It would be a shame if Tories get in and ruin the recovery with their customary high interest rates and unemployment and inflation hikes.
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"204. At 1:57pm on 19 Apr 2010, Fairsfair
Long post
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Gordon Brown has made one good announcement since 1997...the Independence of the BOE
The next good announcement will be when he resigns
This will be very soon after May 6th
I hope those of you who thought there would be a hung Parliament, took my advice to back it at 5/2, it is now odds on
Conservative majority is still only 11/8 so don't write the conservatives off just yet
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I must question the assertion that the Conservatives are the party of the rich
What utter nonsense
Can someone explain, then, why Margaret Thatcher gave council tenants the right to buy their own homes
How did that benefit the rich?
Basically the conservatives are a party that believes in small government, and that the individual should make more life choices, the Labour Party believes in BIG GOVERNMENT and that it should tax and spend until we are broke
I would have thought that the former helps those with the least the most, as even with the economically challenged Gordon Brown in charge the rich will have enough money
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62. At 11:16am on 17 Apr 2010, Kevinb wrote:
"It was always a German-Franco plan to neuter the UK"
What century are we in again? - are there really people still around like yourself who assume that the French and the Germans are 'out to get us'?
I'm afraid you're exposed as a europhobe - along with your other traits - you're actually a Victorian gent trapped in the wrong century.
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#215
"One thing Cameron overlooked "
He has overlooked a few more things such as choice of friends in Europe.
Knives are already out.
Still a tad too early to say he has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat but draw your own conclusions.
He definitely came a poor third in the debates which surprised me as he is usually an exceptional accomplished notes-free speaker. Poor in a format that he pushed for.
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#216
I thought they banned legal highs :)
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#197
"if we have to hear much more about his children’s state school and his family’s experience of the NHS, some of us will need medical attention of our own."
I have it on good authority that Simon Cowell will be helping Posh Dave with his 'I am just an Ordinary Guy Like You' act. Various scenarios include rap and a dance routine.
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#190
"It needs to be back to the drawing board for the EURO and get the basics in place for the security of that currency. And this time membership must be better policed.........."
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It never left the drawing board. It is very much a work in progress and an incremental one at that.
Everything that is happening was anticipated and will help push the next phase - fiscal union.
The history of the 'European Project' is one step at a time.
Back to a 'sense of proportion' and some facts...
Greece and Portugal are tiny in terms of GDP and debt compared to the rest of the EU. Spain and Italy have much smaller deficits. Ireland are taking the medicine (and reducing GDP in the process).
The UK is most likely next after Greece and Portugal. Political uncertainty and no serious plan for deficit reduction from either party.
GDP figures for Q1 due on Friday.
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#222
"Still a tad too early to say he has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat but draw your own conclusions."
I shall have to sack my proof reader.
Should read..
Still a tad too early to say he has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory but draw your own conclusions.
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216
I fail to understand the point you are trying to make here
House prices resume to 2008 levels is such an obscure comment
It was the year prices fell, so are you trying to suggest all losses will be recovered?
Pretty unlikely
The only factor stopping prices from falling further is supply and demand
When interest rates start to rise later this year, falls in prices will happen
If we call in the IMF, very possible, then interest rates double at least, then prices fall even quicker
I must ask if I can borrow your rose coloured spectacles through which to watch the World Cup
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221
I would rather be in the wrong century than on the wrong planet
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3 Where does blind Olga live? - My grandmother wants her to heal her bunions - just a breath will do.
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171
A Nazi invention....great
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#214 Jeremy Silverstone,
"China is not just a bubble waiting to pop or an idea. China is a near unstopable machine taking over the planet and it is they who are going to dictate much of the next chapter in human history."
You really should take a more strategic view and also look at the history of both China and India before making such statements.
China already has some significant regional, social and bandit problems. On the surface it may appear that central control is all pervasive but that is far from the truth. India already has a civil war going on within its borders. Both of these powers have increased their productive capacity to meet the needs of a voracious West. Whilst there is a potentially larger audience in Asia it is not as 'rich' as the West and will take a very long time to become so.
Now, I do not believe that China wants to take the risk of a war with the West. It knows that if it pushes too hard this is likely to result. I also believe that they will be more than willing a trade re-balancing programme rather than have quotas and tarrifs imposed upon them.
The balance of power is not as lob-sided as you may think.
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#220 Kevinb,
"Can someone explain, then, why Margaret Thatcher gave council tenants the right to buy their own homes
How did that benefit the rich?"
Where do you think that they got the money from to buy their former council houses?
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127. Thank you BluesBerry for an insight I had not realised. This sounds like a new form of warfare to me; one that is unrecognised within capitalist economies by the wider public -well me at least. It seems to me that to attack it (Goldman)is to attack the very system that spawned it and which makes money from it (taxes) while to ignore it allows it to create favourable conditions for profit, unchallenged and without a conscience for the consequences. The several serious bloggers here probably understand it better than a pleb like me - please develop the theme.
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#RD
Actually I think DC need to perhaps reconsider and let Labour-LibDem 'take control'. The economy and everything in it should tank so big in the next 6-12 months.
Then wait for people to literally beg the Tories to take over and DC as 'the new messiah' in a real-life Monty python spoof.
Sounds far more appetising than to win with a small majority and take the hits for others. Some of the 'observations' on here beggar belief.
Just think if Simon Cowell had been alongside the other 3 on Thursday - how many votes would he have polled? Hi I'm Simon Cowell -I'm not like the other three............(then follow Clegg's lines a la Thursday). No policies but he would have been 'more popular than Churchill'...
Come to think about it - perhaps you could put a banana in his place and see how many votes get polled?
I'm not sure there would be any difference......and we could then have the definitive 'Banana Republic' with Brown admitting he lost on both style and substance but thanks to Dave Milliband they've found the solution.......
As I've said all along - no accounting for ignorance.........at least we know Labour's education policy has failed big time.
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#232 FDD
I think you should really look at North Korea as a new home...........
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216. At 5:09pm on 19 Apr 2010, onward-ho
I love your definition of 'high interest rates' running up to 2007 - however these are nothing compared to the 8 - 15% I experienced when I got my first mortgage in the 90's.
"However I agree we are in a low interest phase, and it is precisely because we need the housing market to keep gently going back up to 2008 levels and the need to avoid a calamitous crash in prices that we will see these interest rates staying low for quite a long time from now .....everyone but the Tory party realises and remembers the eighties and early nineties ."
...it's not Governments who decide interest rates (only they are foolish enough to believe that) - but the markets, and they are already making the noises. The US t-bill rate is moving upward - and the UK treasury won't be far behind.
You can of cours maintain a low base rate - but this will only help a small nuber of mortgage holders (like me) - but this will have the disaterous effect of the Government paying 6% and lending to the banks at 0.5%.
Route 1 to Hyperinflation is where that will get us as the money supply goes through the roof. Alternatively if the banks set their rates too high and try to squeeze a bigger margin - then we'll see Japanese 'lost decade'.
Either one is dicing with death - something has to give soon as this the lack of equilibrium is beggining to worry even the blindest of bond market participants.
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232. At 6:44pm on 19 Apr 2010, foredeckdave wrote:
#220 Kevinb,
"Can someone explain, then, why Margaret Thatcher gave council tenants the right to buy their own homes
How did that benefit the rich?"
Where do you think that they got the money from to buy their former council houses?
....why don't we ask Dame Shirley? - or is she not rich because she claimed to only have £300k in assets?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2004/jul/05/politics.localgovernment
Come on KevinB - are you realy so naieve - or is it an act?
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#230
"A Nazi invention....great"
Silly KevinB.
Nazis were in power for just 12 years 1933-45
The communes I refer to were in the 1920's
Must be a Library near you - catch up on your reading :)
Any odds on who will step down first
Brown or Cameron
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
#234
"Just think if Simon Cowell had been alongside the other 3 on Thursday - how many votes would he have polled? Hi I'm Simon Cowell -I'm not like the other three............(then follow Clegg's lines a la Thursday). No policies but he would have been 'more popular than Churchill'..."
=====================================================================
Simon: La La La
Brown: I agree with Simon.
Cameron: Sod it. I should have never left the Bullingon Club
My half kraut side is in schadenfreude overdrive (Steady KevinB, think before you post). Some of my friends in Germany think the UK is a theme park.
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206. At 3:07pm on 19 Apr 2010, Squarepeg wrote:
160. At 8:23pm on 18 Apr 2010, nautonier
IMO this is now the almost unstoppable result of the election so we will all get to test your hypothesis. The wheels appear to have fallen off the Conservative battle bus. I wait to see how they attempt to glue them back on; if they do then it will be a genuinely masterful piece of politics.
Personally I have no remaining faith in the ability of the Conservative party and their backers to deliver a more egalitarian future for the people of this country. Their message in this campaign appears weak; they seem to have hoped to get past the post on anti Mr Brown sentiment and this strategy has now fallen apart. Whatever the answer might be to our current and future problems it no longer lies in that direction. I believe the majority of the people of this country now understand this.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Depends on one's local constituency and how safe the seat is?
We're all 'tactical voters' now?
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220. At 5:40pm on 19 Apr 2010, Kevinb wrote:
"Basically the conservatives are a party that believes in small government, and that the individual should make more life choices, the Labour Party believes in BIG GOVERNMENT and that it should tax and spend until we are broke"
...an how have the Tories demonstrated that KevinB? - was it their grand ideas of privatising everything to bring us 'choice'?
When it comes to trains, energy, premiership football, telecomms - the choice is very much less for many people - only those with money can experience that 'choice'.
...and as we know, not everyone who has money is deserving of such choice - are they?
The myth that the conservatives were particularly prudent in their last Government is jus that - a myth. The budget surplus Tory supporters bang on about was more to do with the capital returned and the removal of costs from these privatised industries - a short term gain, with long term pain for the consumer - and the tax payer, because I seem to recall that the old nationalised industries didn't need an army of regulators or a flurry of ombudsmen in order to prevent profiteering.
The Tories don't want to make a small Government - it will remian the same size - it's just the people who run it will be doing it to make a profit - regardless of the consequences to society.
However as you are a Victorian gent - I can see why you would think this is a spiffing idea.
"are there no prisons, are there no workhouses!'
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232
Predictable response......ticked it on my bingo card...
You can do better than that surely
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238. At 7:27pm on 19 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle
Oh dear KevinB - another F for fail.....
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238
You with a bit of luck
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I'd have to concur with your friends. Respect to Geremans........
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Kevinb wrote
"Can someone explain, then, why Margaret Thatcher gave council tenants the right to buy their own homes
How did that benefit the rich?"
232. At 6:44pm on 19 Apr 2010, foredeckdave wrote:
"Where do you think that they got the money from to buy their former council houses?"
From Building Societies, dear Lisa, dear Lisa, Fom Building Societies with Mortgages dear FDD!
And quite a few hundred thousand if not a few million Working Class families had capital to work with for the first time in their lives. But that doesn't suit your rather strange mantra that Thatcher despised the working class. On the contrary she sought to instill values of thrift and saving. Unlike the Clown!
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242
I must have missed it when the Conservatives ran Premiership Football
Like most of your garbled posts, inaccurate and empty
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242
Yes, I know the Dickens quote
Actually, there was a £6bn deficit in 1997
If you want to insult me, then at least try your best to be accurate
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#197 >>Well not just on here. This following report from the Daily Torygraph (dated 17 April) which I posted on an other thread is worth noting again...…
I suspect that this election is more important to Our Glorious Leader than is generally realised !! It's not the enemies without that he needs to fear; it the enemies within the Labour party that are already sharpening their knives for him !!
Not the most popular chappy right this moment....
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234 Rugbyprof
"Actually I think DC need to perhaps reconsider and let Labour-LibDem 'take control'. The economy and everything in it should tank so big in the next 6-12 months."
This would be my 'dream ticket' also. Like kevinb, I also have money on a hung parliament.
The only thing that scares the life out of me is the worry that they 'reform' the electoral system to a PR system. With the 8 million 'inactives', the army of equality and diversity coordinators and the well meaning (but economically illiterate) socialists , we will never be able to get rid of GB.
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169. At 9:40pm on 18 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
#165
"I don't know if the figures are available but I seriously wonder if the ongoing cost (ie manpower) of such inititives is worth the bother. I would guess not. give me a NHS without a choice but with a focus on standards rather than appeasing political tastes of the moment any day."
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People like choice. It gives them a feeling of control.
Though I take your point, if it is your point, that refinements like that do not fit in with the economic reality of the current time.
The advancement in IT and its proper application (the hard bit) makes it easier to offer bespoke services. Is this not a good thing.
>>>>>>>
I understand that people like choice, however, the NHS is a free at point of delivery service and I would argue that part of that should NOT be pandering to the mantra of 'consumer choice' but rather focus on improving standards in all hospitals and reorganising services so there are centres of excellence in each region. The other darker side of 'consumer choice' is that the 'competition' it produces could actually lead to more expensive healthcare on average - popular hospitals will have to gear up for more patients while the less popular ones will wither away but will still be paid for by the local PCT (primary care trust).
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151 kevinb
"He is unfit for office and is an economic terrorist"
His 'jihad' against private sector pension schemes seems to support that theory.
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"Actually, there was a £6bn deficit in 1997"
Hash Brown would have been proud of the deficit as it is 'keeping money in the economy'. It is hardly surprising he got such a beating in the debate when he comes up with gems like that.
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#252
"I understand that people like choice, however, the NHS is a free at point of delivery service and I would argue that part of that should NOT be pandering to the mantra of 'consumer choice' but rather focus on improving standards in all hospitals and reorganising services so there are centres of excellence in each region. The other darker side of 'consumer choice' is that the 'competition' it produces could actually lead to more expensive healthcare on average - popular hospitals will have to gear up for more patients while the less popular ones will wither away but will still be paid for by the local PCT (primary care trust). "
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You have made a good argument and I have to agree.
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#202 >>As with many commentators you are been blinded by the growth numbers achived and not the underlying strategic problems.
China and many other countries in East Asia have already factored in the weaking/loss of the Western demand. They have been developing many other markets to ameliorate against the weaking of the West. Therefore, their dependence on the West is greatly lessened.
Perhaps it is those still mesmerised by the propaganda that the Western economies are the be all and end all of the world's economy that are still in denial.
If the dependence was so strong, then surely their economies would have fallen in correspondence with those in the West !! Instead, they are prospering and still growing !! What does that say about their dependence ??
Singapore has just revalued its currency and China may follow suit soon. Brazil, Russia and India are still growing fairly strongly !! Meanwhile, we are still squabbling whether UK's growth is +/- 0.1% !!
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China is now working on cultivating African markets
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#223 >>I thought they banned legal highs :)
Surely a contradiction in terms !! If they banned it, then it cannot be "legal" and if it's legal, then they haven't banned it !!
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#231 >>I also believe that they will be more than willing a trade re-balancing programme rather than have quotas and tarrifs imposed upon them.
In order to re-balance, there must first be balance !! WHen the US Senators block Chinese purchases of US companies and still complain about not being allowed to buy what they want, there is *NO* balance to start with !!
>>Now, I do not believe that China wants to take the risk of a war with the West. It knows that if it pushes too hard this is likely to result.
Then again, if the Americans or the Europeans push too hard, the Chinese are not afraid to push back *hard* !! Or are you saying that it's OK for the West to be Imperialists and bullies but it's not OK for other to defend themselves and fight back ??
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#258
"Surely a contradiction in terms !! If they banned it, then it cannot be "legal" and if it's legal, then they haven't banned it !!"
I posted this just to see if you were still with us.
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Firstly, thanks DR_DOOM for your comments at 210. I will try and reply in thev same order as your comments.
You cannot assume that state companies were badly managed. Some were well managed. You cannot assume that they have been well managed since. I say that they were sold cheaply because the ones that were sold on the Stock Exchange were over subscribed and the price rose immediately afterwards.
The rich are human beings who happen to be rich. I do not blame them for being rich. Like poor people, some are good and some are bad. I realise that if their wealth was taken away from them suddenly they would feel hurt and I would not want them to be hurt. However, I do not think that they all are rich because they work hard and are intelligent. I don’t think all the poor are poor because they do not work hard and are unintelligent. We have an illogical and indefensible version of Capitalism which means that one person can earn 100 times what another can earn. Some people try to justify this illogicality by the magic words ‘Free Market’. There is no such thing as a free market. If there was such a thing and it still produced such ridiculous results that one citizen working hard could only earn 100th of what another citizen earned, then it would be the government’s duty to act to change the effects of it on those citizens. I dislike generations of British citizens being kept in relative poverty because of this mythical god called The Free Market. Who has shown that money has been thrown at people on benefits? How do you define thrown?
Interest rates are low because of the need to deal with the Credit Crunch which is the biggest international financial problem since the depression of the 30s. Unemployment will rise but I believe from past experience that it will rise far more under the Tories
It might be alright for money to be passed down from generation to generation if money did not make money and if it had been earned more equally in the first place. I want a dynamic society where people really do have equal opportunities and hard work produces equal results. But, as stated above, it does not produce equal results because of the mythical Free Market. When you say that a person loses the house that they have lived in all of their lives what do you think about a person losing his job after he has worked there all of his life? What do you think of a person losing his home because interest rates are trebled?
Could you explain what you mean by marginal tax rates in relation to pension credits?
Didn’t Gordon Brown introduce the 10p tax rate in the first place?
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#259
"Or are you saying that it's OK for the West to be Imperialists and bullies but it's not OK for other to defend themselves and fight back ??"
That has been the general theme for last 300 years and habits die hard.
Oh, if you fight back you are terrorists.
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Firstly, thanks stanilic for your comments at 211.
I think that debt is a political issue. I did not say that it wasn’t.
True, not all of the debt is down to bailing out the banks. Nevertheless, there would not have been any debt had there been 40 companies to sell off.
No one can say at present whether selling of the shares in the banks will cover the debt because that depends upon how the shares go.
When you say that the sherry meetings with the Governor of the Bank of England worked for three hundred years, it depends upon your definition of ‘worked’. Wasn’t the Stock Exchange working before Margaret Thatcher deregulated it?
Those pension funds are invested in Stocks and Shares and I think that they are more affected by the rise and fall of share prices and the pay of the chief executives than what Gordon Brown has done.
I agree that Margaret Thatcher did get rid of a lot of the big manufacturing businesses but I have recently been walking around our local area and I have been surprised how many businesses there are that seem to be happily working away.
I am not running for public office so I cannot tell you what should be done about the public debt. I can look at what the three parties say they will do and then decide. I am not concerned about recounting the evils of the Tories for the sake of it. I do it because we need to compare the past with the present to see how far we have come and to put the present into context. In judging for whom to vote, most people have recent experience of Labour in order to judge what they will do. I want them also to be aware that the Tories won the 1979 election saying that unemployment under Labour was high even though it was then reducing but they doubled it for 6 years and it was never back down to the levels seen under Labour.
There was a balance of payments problem under Labour because of the sudden increase in oil prices and the fact that Labour invested in equipment to develop the North Sea Oilfields. As you say, those oil fields were just coming on line and providing the country with a lot of wealth when Mrs Thatcher came to power but that did not stop her doubling unemployment. She then sold off those oil companies unlike the Norwegian government who have used the oil wealth to invest in other companies in other countries. Things would be different now had we kept hold of those companies.
As regards keeping poor people in their place, I remember at least one report of a person committing suicide under the Tories because they were waiting for their dole money to be agreed. I think that the people that you mention below are in a much better position now than they would have been under the Tories and, if the Tories get in, I believe they will reduce the benefits much faster rather than try to increase the pay the people receive for their hard work.
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#260 >>I posted this just to see if you were still with us.
Depends on your definition of "still with us" !! A couple more pints and I'll be speaking in tongues !!
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#235,
ha ha!
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#247
Now follow those consequences through and look at how household and personal debt rose exponentially since Thatchers 'installation'. Go back to sleep until you can look at the bigger picture.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
#259 ishkandar,
Now just where are these 'other markets' that will make the returns at anything like the same monetry value? If you want to look more closely at the attempts to find resources from Africa then the history shows that is more than just slightly problematic.
As for military confrontation. It has always been an element of economic strategy. Unfortunately the only way of testing just how good their forces really are will be a war. After all The West have the experience of finding out just how poor the USSR resources really were after the Cold War came to an end. China's military strength remains untested. As I doubt that anybody wants a war then we are likely to see a lot of posturing. However, capitalist states in particular have used military build-up as a means of regenerating struggling economies.
Notice that you had no answer to my points regarding China's internal problems.
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263 Fairsfair
I will leave you to your fears as I have my own.
The great illusion facing the British people today is that they think they have a choice at the election. They haven't: the choice is cuts in public spending, cuts in public spending and cuts in public spending. Then there are also cuts in public spending.
The political class are engaged in a game of fudge. There might be slightly different flavours but they are all fudge.
New Labour has proved to be the worst administration in this country since Lord North lost the American colonies. The irony of such a juxtaposition of events and geography causes me a wry smile. They have to go as their version of social-democracy has failed for good.
Then there will be the cuts and years of economic turmoil.
What we need to define now is what we want Britain to be at the end of all this tumult and misery. This needs must be a more equal society with a manufacturing economy, small government and full employment. I am more concerned that we get something close to that ideal than whether `four legs are good and two legs are bad'.
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266. , foredeckdave wrote
"look at how household and personal debt rose exponentially since Thatchers 'installation'."
Holed below the water line, I think you're the sleepy one. If you had read through before sending your very intelligent missive, you might have noticed debt has mushroomed in the age of the clown. 125% mortgages and large slugs of unsecured credit is a feature of the last few years of our wonderland economics of "no more boom and bust"!
And if we get a Clegg/Brown coalition prepare for the return of Mugabenomics. Get your wheel barrow now.
I am going to bed now as I am on Continental time. And yes I have booked my ferry.
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#270
Hope you have a good sleep. Go back and look at the debt/average earnings ratios since 1980.
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#268 >>Notice that you had no answer to my points regarding China's internal problems.
I have posted this "answer" several times before in this very blog and need not be regurgitated.
In short, China have never been and will never be a "country" !! It had always been and still is an "empire" !! If the Brits are still squabbling with the French and the Germans, what do you expect in an enpire 4 times as big. As for banditry, there's plenty of that about in Britain's cities so what would you expect of a nation just fresh out of the confused disasters of its corrupt, Communist era !!
And before you preach about Tibet, first give NI back to the Irish !!
China has not more social problems than most other countries in the world. It's just magnified by those who wish to capitalise on that to the exclusion of all else. The difference between their rich and poor are less than that in many other countries, especially those in the West. It's just human nature that the Chinese now expect to reap all the benefits of capitalism while still retaining much of the Communist benefits as well. Not that different from what's happening here, really !! Cake and eating, you know !!
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#263: "if the Tories get in, I believe they will reduce the benefits much faster rather than try to increase the pay the people receive for their hard work."
Dear Fairsfair:
Here are some questions... followed by some advice.
1. What will "the Tories" do that for? What will be their motivation, the benefits to the country (or because they are evil, innit, to their pockets)?
2. Why do you believe they will do that? What is your belief based on?
3. Would you like other people to believe what you believe? Why?
Now, here is how you know a demagogue: demagogues say "I believe" and mean "I know". Also they use words like "much faster" where "faster" would need less proof, and "hard work" to raise an emotional response. Please try not to be a demagogue, they are not in short supply in this country.
PS "innit" obviously is a demagogue word, anyone can do it...
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Addendum to reply to #268
>>If you want to look more closely at the attempts to find resources from Africa then the history shows that is more than just slightly problematic.
Well, it all depends on how these resources are "obtained", with or without the cooperation of the locals. They seem to be doing quite nicely so far, since they are trading what the locals need and/or want for what they need and/or want rather than forcing manufactured products on the natives that neither they cannot afford and/or neither need or want. They also don't try to foist their beliefs/religions/politics on the locals.
Furthermore, they don't think that Africa is the only source of resources. They also have markets in Latin America and Australasia/Pacific Islands.
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#269, Stanilic: "What we need to define now is what we want Britain to be at the end of all this tumult and misery. This needs must be a more equal society with a manufacturing economy, small government and full employment. I am more concerned that we get something close to that ideal than whether `four legs are good and two legs are bad'."
Why what you say is the desideratum? Not that I disagree with anything you would like to see in Britain (though I am not sure what you mean by "equal"), but it seems to me that all these are means to something. Is it not better to define the aims and then see what means are needed to achieve them?
If you could have the same "quality of life" (I recommend The Landing on the Sun)
by wanting less or by manufacturing more, what would you choose? So may be a manufacturing economy is not an end in itself...
[Burke, totally confused by the French Revolution asked: Freedom TO DO WHAT?]
Actually the answers are so clear to me, I must be wrong.
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OK, before I am off: Mrs. T.
yes, she did many things wrong and many right things badly. What follows from that?
That Labour has a God-given right to govern (I remember "Tony" Blair saying "The Labour party is the political arm of the British people)? That their policies, if they have their origin in Thatcher's policies, are therefore exempt from criticism and somehow smell better? That the Conservative party is not allowed the elementary dignity of being able to learn from mistakes of past (including Conservative) administrations? That everything she did right and subsequent Labour administrations did wrong has to be distorted till it comes out the other way around?
Let us keep the eye on the ball: Labour has been in power for 13 years. At least in education Labour has been a complete and utter disaster; my feeling is that the same is true in everything else, but education is what I do and know. That these trends were started by the previous Conservative administrations is a fact, but it is not an exculpatory fact. The Conservative party of today has to be indicted for having been a dreadful Opposition, and for being as disgustingly populist as the rest of this sorry roost. People should only be held responsible for what they do.
[Obviously I would also lay into them for not being conservative in any reasonable sense of this very reasonable word, but perhaps it is no longer possible to be conservative, the world changes too fast, neophilia is contagious.]
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#272 ishkandar,
Then the reports in The Economist earlier this year regarding mafia type operations and the growing dissent of the Me2 generation are all rubbish are they? Add to that the growing student protest regarding internet censorship and the 'peasant' protest regarding land rights and you have both serious legal and social problems that the 'State' appear unable to reconcile.
take the blinkers off. All is not as you may wish it to be.
Now, the growth of Asian economies and India in particular still reolves around serving the needs of the West. Without that stimulous the growth rate slows to the point where implosion is a strong possibility.
As for chinese cake - they have a long tradition of letting people starve when the cake runs out.
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227
Barring silly modern overpriced speculative developments, house prices will recover and overshoot 2008 levels as population increases and confidence and credit supply resumes.
It woz the crunch wot did it it not the years of growth.
Ain't you got that yet Kev?
The doomtime will soon be over!
WOTW
Those interest rate rises, though they look small in terms of interest rate percentages, were actually huge in terms of the effect it had on people's mortgages .......I went from a 2.89% deal to 7.89% in the space of a year and it nearly knocked me out.No wonder people defaulted.
Ithink the intention to take the heat out of the housing market by steadily increasing the rate of interest and the simultaneous tightening of lending criteria is what caused the crash, even more so than the American shenanigans.
But looking from a long term perspective,Britain is still a dynamic happening place and will resume its onwards and upwards curve very soon.
Have you not noticed that Champagne prices are back at boom levels?
Something good is happening.
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261
"Didn’t Gordon Brown introduce the 10p tax rate in the first place?"
Yes, even though it would have been simpler to adjust the personal tax allowance. Abolishing it to fund the basic rate tax cut meant that anyone earning less than 17,000 was worse off.
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#277 >>Then the reports in The Economist earlier this year regarding mafia type operations and the growing dissent of the Me2 generation are all rubbish are they?
There were mafia-type operations during the early days of China's opening up but then which other country went through turmoil and came up without any of that ?? Even Britain went through a period of that. Remember Rachmanism ??
As for the Me2 generation, just look around you to see how much more prevailent it is here !!
>>Add to that the growing student protest regarding internet censorship and the 'peasant' protest regarding land rights and you have both serious legal and social problems that the 'State' appear unable to reconcile.
Yes there are protests in China but then Britain, being such a placid place, no protests or disagreements are ever made ??
The land rights issue are tied to the mafia operations that are a hang-over from the change from corrupt Communist cadres to Socialism with Chinese characteristics. At least they are doing something about their corruption and seen to be doing it !! They get heavy prison sentences or taken out and shot !!
>>Now, the growth of Asian economies and India in particular still reolves around serving the needs of the West. Without that stimulous the growth rate slows to the point where implosion is a strong possibility.
Despite the fact that the Western economies declined sharply over the last two years, most Asian economies are still growing. This indicates to me that their economies do not "revolve around serving the West" !! The West has enough problems and more trying to stimulate their own economies without any to spare to stimulate the Asian economies into such great growth !! So where is the implosion to come from ??
Last year, China's economic growth was just over 10% and India's was just over 8% while Britain and most of the West were in recession !! Tell me again how a Western recession can fuel Asian growth if their economies "revolve around serving the West" !! To quote a pointy-eared alien - It does not compute, Captain !!
>>As for chinese cake - they have a long tradition of letting people starve when the cake runs out.
As opposed to looting others of their cake ?? Or buying other people's cake with devaluing notes ??
With a 10% or more growth every year, their cake doesn't look like running out any time soon. Meanwhile, Britain is still buried under a mountain of debt and it's getting bigger all the time !!
Remember the parable about motes and eyes !!
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Thanks Rugbyprof for your comments at 212 to which I reply in the same order.
If I abrogate responsibility for Gordon Brown it is because others abrogate responsibility for Margaret Thatcher. If I am guilty of double standards, then so are others. When making up their minds for whom to vote, people already have all the negative information from the media and people like yourself. I am just trying to level the playing field by letting people know what happened in the Tory years that I lived through and they may not have done. They will then be better able to judge.
The economic problems in the 70s started with the sudden increase in oils prices and the Labour government developed the North Sea oil fields which Margaret Thatcher benefitted from and then sold off.
I think you only need to look at the policies of the Conservatives when they were last in office to see that they favour the rich.
I come from a working class background and some may class me as middle class now. My parents voted Labour because they did not like the values of the Conservatives. I don’t think that proves things either way.
A lot of people lost their houses during the year that interest rates were at 15%. The government at that time did fix the interest rates. Gordon Brown is being blamed by some for moving away from that control.
Which facts do not bear out my opinion on the benefits culture? I think it is similar to the Nigerian example because the people at the bottom of the pile cannot improve their situation markedly so there is nothing for which they can realistically aspire. The corruption that we have in this country is the corruption of one person being paid 100 times more than another by a fixed market.
I think we will have to disagree about the bias and reasoned argument.
I am not arguing against the rich as people but against the fixed system that makes them so rich and others so poor. If only people could see how the idea of a free market is a myth to which we sacrifice so many lives. Until that happens, I will vote for the party that I feel does most to help the poorer in this country.
Thanks for you comments.
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#278 >>Have you not noticed that Champagne prices are back at boom levels?
Something good is happening.
Yeah, the French are feeling the pinch so they want more money for their bubbly !!
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278
If you could translate your reply into English, and actually make a point, I will happily reply
At this point, I have no idea what you are trying to say
Sorry
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Gordon Brown will always make things more complicated than they need to be, it is a tactic of the pseudo-intelligent
There are a considerable number of examples, tax credits, 10p tax, PFI, being just three
Maybe we could reduce the national debt by selling the smoke and mirrors
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#280 ishkandar,
Ah you really are now scrapeing the barrel.
Firstly the mafia-style operations are on-going and on a far greater scale than Rachman (that was just a silly example).
The ME2 generation is significantly different in China than it is in the West in both philosophy and social expectation. As for student unrest it is of a totally different order. Trying to down grade th argument by saying "its the same here" is really pathetic.
Now go back and look at just how the economic growth in China and India was achieved. The fall in Western demand has been off-set by internal spending but that cannot be sustained over the long period by either country. Then consider the relative 'value' of Western purchasing (yes it continues) and how that underpins and fuels growth. Then consider what happens to economies when the sun stop shinning.
It's my eyes that are open but you appear to even sleep in your rose-tinted glasses
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Back to Eurozone economics ...
http://www.openeurope.org.uk/media-centre/summary.aspx?id=1069
'The elephant in the room' ... the significant hidden costs and 'EU straightjacket' of EU laws, bureacracy, millionaire eurocrat Kinnocks and regulations.
There is an answer to the budget deficit - the UK can have a series of referendums on the costs/benefits of EU membership and recover lost trade with other countries. - at least allow the lectorate have a say on their fate instead of behind denied having a say/referendum on the most expensive items in the UK budget
We don't need to sit around like cabbages ready to be crushed by the Gordon Brown donkey cart trundling along to further disaster ...
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Once again back to the point.......
Both China and India have now had to take action to stifle their bubble that was starting to grow at an alarming pace. Both have double digit inflation and property is now becoming unattainable for the majority. This does not bode well for us, the western world if we are expecting the BRIC nations to lead us out of recession. Brazil is dependant on selling it's natural resources as is Russia while China and India are just consuming them. If the second falter then the first will suffer although Brazil is more vulnerable than Russia.
And while this is unfurling Greece and the other PIIGS are still languishing in a mess of their own making. For this had little to do with the banking crisis. Greece has been living the dream for too many years on others hard earned cash. Ireland and Spain were totally dependant on a property boom that was never going to be sustainable and Portugal and Italy, well they were just being themselves and possibly trying to be something they could not.
What does this leave us with, well the US and they are currently on a path to self destruction. They are trying to spend their way out of recession while carrying a national debt that would have killed a lesser a being and ironically it is China who is keeping them afloat.
And all the time the hawks are just circling waiting to pick the corpse of the fallen. So who will be the first to go down, the wise money is still on Greece. Through all of this the EU and more importantly Germany and France look on with a worrying amount of inactivity. All are too worried about the consequences of raising their head above the parapet.
A fellow blogger yesterday questioned the IMF's funding saying that others wanted to step up and take the US's place. However many have talked about doing just this but very few are actually prepared to put up the cash. China does not yet fell it has the capacity to become philanthropic and anyway they do not have the reserves in cash form to back such an action and the void left by the US would be much to large a casum for any small number to step in to fill and the IMF needs those who commit to actually deliver. History has told them that all too often this does not materialise. You just have to look at the foreign aid that is promised during times of natural disaster. Very little of what is committed to is actually handed over.
All in all this does point to the world economy having to find a new level and that level is somewhat lower than it was prior to the start of the banking crisis. Not so much a period of austerity but one of countries living within their means.
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Gosh the double standards of the Tories hacks on this blog is breath taking.
They complain about the lib dems rise on the back of the 90 minute debate, but forget that Cameron became leader of the Tories purely on the back of a short 20 minute conference speech in 2005. During that brief speech he said he wanted to to "attract a new generation", focused on style over substance and modelled himself on pure Blair. At the time, coverage of Cameron's performance was described as "X-FACTOR CAMERON FIGHTS BACK." So its de ja vu all over again.
The problem for the Tories is that their leader and party haven;t been questioned under pressure since. Hence the scrabbling around...
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#286
"There is an answer to the budget deficit - the UK can have a series of referendums on the costs/benefits of EU membership and recover lost trade with other countries. - at least allow the lectorate have a say on their fate instead of behind denied having a say/referendum on the most expensive items in the UK budget"
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The trouble with referendums is that they are almost always won by the Government posing the question. They are also an abdication of government. We elect a government to govern.
If there was a properly organised debate on the EU with proper facts and information I doubt whether the UK would vote to leave the EU. Turkeys and christmas.
If we cannot trade within the EU we certainly would find it harder outside.
Pearson was an absolute joke on the the Politics Show when questioned by Jon Sopel on the UKIP manifesto.
But I admit considerable bias. I am very pro the EU.
If we end up with a Labour / LibDem arrangement it will be around for a long time given the adoption of some sort of PR and the Euro will follow within years.
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273. At 11:15pm on 19 Apr 2010, trylypuzzled wrote:
#263: "if the Tories get in, I believe they will reduce the benefits much faster rather than try to increase the pay the people receive for their hard work."
Dear Fairsfair:
Here are some questions... followed by some advice.
1. What will "the Tories" do that for? What will be their motivation, the benefits to the country (or because they are evil, innit, to their pockets)?
**
Come off it. The Tories believe that the poor and low paid should have less money in order to motivate them to work harder or find jobs. That means lower benefits and lower wages. That is why they voted agianst the introduction of minumum wages. But at the same time the Tories also believe that at the top incomes, the rich need more money to be motivated, which is why the Tories are always keen to reduce taxation on the rich.
So the answer is according to the Tory view is that the poor must have less and the rich must have more.
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276. At 11:44pm on 19 Apr 2010, trylypuzzled wrote:
"Let us keep the eye on the ball: Labour has been in power for 13 years. At least in education Labour has been a complete and utter disaster; "
**
What a load of pure Tory propaganda. State education is infinitely better now than in 1997. No question about it. Not just smaller class sizes, but new and refurbished schools more teachers, more classroom assistants, more resources and higher education standards.
If you can't accept any of that, then one can only assume that all your comments are "complete and utter" tosh.
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159. At 8:18pm on 18 Apr 2010, Kevinb wrote:
"He is a compulsive liar, and I believe his sucking up to Nick Clegg is very much the action of a man thinking of self interest"
...and can you name any politician who isn't???
Your world is surreal if you really don't see this common thread across politics - I mean if you consider the system for a fraction of a second then you will see why all politicians follow their self interests.
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288. At 09:13am on 20 Apr 2010, Free_the_Monkey wrote:
"The problem for the Tories is that their leader and party haven;t been questioned under pressure since. Hence the scrabbling around..."
...as most opposition politicians discover - it's ain't easy being in the spotlight - especially when you have been such an ineffective opposition for so long....
What is noticeable is that both Labour and Cons underestimated the Lib Dems - it seems they didn't even have prepared policy attacks - such was their arrogance about the impact of the third party.
I love it when arrogance get's a slap.
Now their only recourse is to attack the xenephobic 'European loving' liberals and the 'lax immigration' policies the Lib dems have, whilst claiming that a vote for Clegg equals a vote for Brown.
It's truly pathetic when politics comes to this - don't vote for that guy because he might not win is exactly how we end up with this duopoly of a political system.
I say we should adopt the Kazhakstan method of politics, we vote them in, then after 5 years we chase them out of Government and pick a new one. It may not be pretty but at least you see 'change' - unlike the current offering from the 'old boys club'.
...I mean how can Cameron talk about 'real change' - when Labour have been following Tory (Thatcherite) policy for a large part of their term!
...anyway this Greece thing - haven't they defaulted yet? Maybe the bailiffs have been delayed on their flight to Athens...
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292
This narrow view pollutes your posts continuously
There are several I could name
For now, due to your previous abuse of me, I shall give you just one
Robin Cook
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"Impartial" business leaders advising them on how the Tories have the right measures to fix the economy.
Typical Tory nepotism, these guys are really something else.Pathetic
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Two business leaders who spoke out against Labour's plans to increase National Insurance are to be made Conservative peers, it was disclosed last night.
The appointments of Next chief executive Simon Wolfson and JCB chairman Sir Anthony Bamford have been approved by the appointments commission and would be announced 'imminently'.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1267407/Tycoons-backed-National-Insurance-cut-Tory-peers.html?ITO=1490#ixzz0ld35AfyJ
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291 Free-The-Monkey
Isn't that a bit like the householder that tells his family they are doing well because they own a £200,00 house but not mentioning the £250,000 mortgage.
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Well it will be interesting to see the spin put on the inflation figures out today. Not quite the drop that was being forecast by the government and the treasury. Although the CPI is 3.4% it is the RPI we should be looking at and at 4.4% it will cause concern for many especially the low paid and the elderly. It will also put pressure on the BoE if it remains high to put up interest rates, something that I fear is inevitable.
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#231 Foredeckdave
Thanks for the response.
You might well be right.
I would also concede i know very little about Chinese History and politics making it very hard to form a 'strategic' view on the interaction between people and state. I am not an intellectual, few of my ideas are formed exclusively through study. Most of my views have been guided by travel and experience and listening to the views of others. I am rarely certain about anything.
It is also the case that the future is never set and unexpected events will often dictate outcomes. I certainly know nothing about Chinese Mafia although i am sure it exists as does massive Chinese corruption and its potential to derail growth.
However, you may also be wrong in not recognising a global revolution. As someone who clearly has read history would you not agree that every empire and hegemony no matter how strong declined and ultimately collapsed. One book i did get some ideas from was Edward Gibbons 'Decline of the Roman Empire' which i read while a student and i am confident about something. Fixed political ideologies come and go with empires. Only the spirit of man and our desire to succeed has stood the tests of time. I am still betting on China despite their lack of freedom of expression and human rights against a weak profligate west.
After all we built an empire without even letting women vote.
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276. At 11:44pm on 19 Apr 2010, trylypuzzled wrote:
"Let us keep the eye on the ball: Labour has been in power for 13 years. At least in education Labour has been a complete and utter disaster; "
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Wrong.
Education and the NHS are two significant Labour success stories.
They have failed on everything else...
Iraq
Not taking us into the Euro
Not abolishing private / public schools.
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Free_the_Monkey
State education is infinitely better now than in 1997. No question about it.
Not just smaller class sizes, - our school class sizes are still above 30 so there has been no improvement there or am I missing the point... but new and refurbished schools - Our school has had a new music room and other areas have been refurbished. - However a significant proportion of the cost had to be met out of the schools budget...
more teachers, more classroom assistants, - No more teachers and classroom assistants time is being cut....
more resources and higher education standards. - I was responsible for graduate recruitment for four years and have found standards very poor. We were supposed to be taking the top 5% however I had to put on english courses to teach them the basics to meet the standards required when carrying out business on a daily basis.
I would point out that we do have a lovely new school in our district, it was built with a PFI programme. It is estimated that the cost will be the equivalent of building 3 more schools plus the running cost which again are estimated at twice that of a normal school. Good value I think, but what can you expect when you buy something on the never never over 30 years.
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Stephanie - did you spot that the IMF increased their fund for bailing out the wealthiest of countrieson Monday (the NAB)?
I believe it was $50 Billion originally and now the fund stands at $550 Billion. This is not the fund the IMF uses to bailout credit poor countries - but it's fund where wealthy countries lend themselves money they don't even have!!
So even if some bloggers and reporters still don't think there is going to be one massive sovereign debts crisis - the people who bail them out clearly do.
P.s. The IMF is simply a giant Ponzi - the biggest of them all. It requires new money to come in, in order to pay out to current investors.
...and we all know what happens to Ponzi schemes in the end don't we?
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...the facts for that last post can be found here...
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2010/pr10145.htm
I may have underestimated the IMF - they actually raised the amount 11 fold - on MONDAY
They are expecting a tank of sovereign debt like none has ever seen before...
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Both Labour and the Lib Dems want to continue with public spending for this year and then make savings and cuts while also not ruling out further tax rises on top of what is already in the pipeline. These policies are based on the UK's economy being well on the way to recovery by then with growth of 3%. However if the UK does not return to that level of growth as it appears it will not, does that mean they will continue to spend while deferring the cuts and savings while not ruling out further tax rises. This surely must be the case as they would not want to jeopardise a fragile recovery. And what happens if we are still not up to that level of growth the next year or the next, when will they bite the bullet or will they just keep on deferring the decision. While all the time not ruling out further tax rises.
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" 276. Free_The_Monkey: At 11:44pm on 19 Apr 2010, trylypuzzled wrote:
"Let us keep the eye on the ball: Labour has been in power for 13 years. At least in education Labour has been a complete and utter disaster; "
**
What a load of pure Tory propaganda. State education is infinitely better now than in 1997. No question about it. Not just smaller class sizes, but new and refurbished schools more teachers, more classroom assistants, more resources and higher education standards.
If you can't accept any of that, then one can only assume that all your comments are "complete and utter" tosh."
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[That is not the only thing you can assume, that is faulty logic and more demagoguery. And if I do accept some of it, then what?]
Oh, I accept some of this. I certainly do not, under no circumstances, accept "higher education standards". More about that in a minute, but I ask you: what does all the rest matter if the standards of education have fallen?
I teach at University and year on year, year on year I see more and more people who have been so badly betrayed by the school system's dumbing down, that they are absolutely unteachable. They know that, they come to the University only for a worthless (in any real sense) piece of paper, they have zero motivation to learn (i.e. to be confronted with, and absorb new ideas).
I will tell you a particularly fitting story. Last year I was asked to teach a course I taught last time 9 years ago. So I tried to teach it as I taught it 9 years ago. But meanwhile something interesting happened: students are no longer able to comprehend what they read. It is amazing and frightening to behold: you give them a paragraph and ask them to paraphrase it and they cannot. No ability to tell the chaff from the wheat.
This happened on Labour's watch. This happened because the present government (and I am sure the Conservatives and the LibDems and everyone else, but they are not the incumbents) have no idea what education is for. They think that the object of the education process is to provide a suitably qualified workforce. I.e. market-fodder with a piece of paper. I disagree.
Also, please try not to use official speak: "resources", que est que c'est? the teaching process requires at only a teacher and people who want to learn. Whatever money you throw at it, the process does not work if people do not want to learn. Wanting to learn must be inculcated. It is not. That is the failure of the system which, frankly, makes my work as an educator lip service and a joke.
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294. At 09:53am on 20 Apr 2010, Kevinb wrote:
"For now, due to your previous abuse of me, I shall give you just one
Robin Cook"
...but isn't he dead?
If all you can produce is one dead politician as an example of politicans not following self interested - then you simply prove my point.
....in fact if you consider what happened to RC before he died - he was effectively ousted for not following his self interest and standing against the war - which compounds my point that the political system ensures all politicins follow self interest.
That is why your faith in politicians amazes me - I mean how many times do you have to get screwed over by the 2 horse political system before you get it?
....have you had your drive tarmac'd lately? - what about your roof tiles, they seem a little loose to me...
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289. At 09:23am on 20 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
#286
"There is an answer to the budget deficit - the UK can have a series of referendums on the costs/benefits of EU membership and recover lost trade with other countries. - at least allow the lectorate have a say on their fate instead of behind denied having a say/referendum on the most expensive items in the UK budget"
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The trouble with referendums is that they are almost always won by the Government posing the question. They are also an abdication of government. We elect a government to govern.
If there was a properly organised debate on the EU with proper facts and information I doubt whether the UK would vote to leave the EU. Turkeys and christmas.
If we cannot trade within the EU we certainly would find it harder outside.
Pearson was an absolute joke on the the Politics Show when questioned by Jon Sopel on the UKIP manifesto.
But I admit considerable bias. I am very pro the EU.
If we end up with a Labour / LibDem arrangement it will be around for a long time given the adoption of some sort of PR and the Euro will follow within years.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Perhaps the next Leaders debate should give some time to the 'elephant' and how 'they' would intend to deal with it in the next UK government in terms of contributions, european defence, Trident, referendums, total loss of UK sovereignty etc.
Many think that the original referendum in 1975 misled the electorate regarding loss of UK sovereignty - 35 or 36 years since the electorate have had any real say on this - and have recenly been cheated by Brown on a referendum - if the Conservatives now remain quiet on this - they've chucked the election in my view!
The EU should of course be able to function in theory without massive inequalities but the requisite reforms and problems mean that proper reform appears to be nigh impossible.
Lord Person makes far more sense to me than Gordon Brown! There is no evidence that Britain would find it harder outside the EU - many countries which do better than the UK, trade with the EU and are not EU members - do a lot better than the UK - so that is that argument permanently trashed!
I've no problem with the EU in principle, so long as it does not seriously disadvantage the UK - as it does at the moment (even though we still have the £GBP) - I can't really see how Britain having the Euro currency - which I agree will follow and quickly under a Labour/Lib Dem stitch up - will now benefit Britain when succesive governments have measuredly or unwittingly kept the British £ pound - by doing so this has just saved the UK from Greek style bail-outs.
Do you think that Germany will bail out the UK when Brown crashes the British economy with a Euro currency?
Arguably only UKIP have a serious plan, for better or worse, for tackling the UK budget deficit - so Lord Pearson is ahead of the pack.
This must be a massive issue which can still turn the outcome of the UK general election if handled properly.
Membership of the Euro currency will massively increase Britain's overall EU contributions/cost of membership when other EU states are going to need rescue funds and new and existing states come begging for handouts very soon. (Have you looked at the EU finances of Poland recently - they are on the 'Pigs back' for sure!)
There is too much EU rhetoric and too little facts on the EU - the millionaire EU Kinnocks and the like do well out of the EU - as for most UK taxpayers - I have serious doubts as to whether EU benefits now exceed the obvious and hidden costs of EU membership - I very much doubt this - but again very difficult to to prove/or disprove under 'EU arrangements'
'Rogue Jumbo' is there for all to see (except for politicians of course)!
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#302
"They are expecting a tank of sovereign debt like none has ever seen before..."
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The end is nigh.
Time for Gordon to 'Save the World'...again :)
Seriously, there are very significant sovereign debt roll-overs scheduled for 2012. The USA in particular.
Presidential elections in 2012 also. Lets hope Palin can tell the difference between a moose and China.
Konolsky may be onto something.
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299. At 10:16am on 20 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
Education and the NHS are two significant Labour success stories.
They have failed on everything else...
Please see my own experiences on education above and we are told that we are lucky to live in our area by Edd the Balls.
The NHS is an area I feel very comfortable speaking about as I and my wife have direct experience of this sector. Where as spending has increased greatly under this government not all of the money has been spent wisely. There has been areas of improvement however there has not been a proportional increase to the amount of money spent. In fact productivity in the NHS is now at a ten year low. Couple this with the number of trusts running vast deficits and having to make cuts increasing we see an institution in crisis. Just throwing money at something does not mean you will get a better service. There are now more non clinicians as a proportion of staff than ever before and more clinicians are taking on roles which see them not patient facing.
With all parties saying they will maintain spending in this area what is needed is a rethink. There is so much room for improvement and many of these areas have been highlighted by the staff themselves. However there is little appetite from senior management to deliver them as it is like turkeys voting for Christmas. It will be a brave government that tackles this one as they will always pull the safety card if and when they feel threatened.
Your final statement I cant argue with.........
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#303
"Both Labour and the Lib Dems want to continue with public spending for this year and then make savings and cuts while also not ruling out further tax rises on top of what is already in the pipeline. These policies are based on the UK's economy being well on the way to recovery by then with growth of 3%."
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This is the best plan on the table.
The Conservative plan to cut sooner, before recovery, would be disastrous according to most economists.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/19/conservative-victory-property-price-crash
The only sensible way to reduce the deficit is to go for growth and raise taxes. Taxes will have to go up it is unavoidable' though in a way that minimises any negative effect on growth.
The Conservative plan, if you can call it a plan, includes slahing the public sector (they won't admit this of course) and helping their rich friends with IHT reduction while chanting the mantra 'we are all in it together'. You have to admire the sheer cheek,
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305
Beyond all doubt you have proved that you have no idea about anything in the real world, even when confronted with TRUTH
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301. At 10:28am on 20 Apr 2010, writingsonthewall wrote:
Yes the IMF has approved increasing the NAB, however this is only like issuing IOU's that they can call in latter. There are still questions about the members being able to "stump up the cash". Short falls have historically been made up by the main players however they themselves are now suffering and could well not be in a position to cover them.
I agree that they are expecting things to get worse before they get better, it does make you question our governments projections on our recovery / growth for we are so dependant on others to lead the way.
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The IMF are calling for Portugal to be helped to negate the chance of a domino effect occurring if Greece fail. They obviously know more than we do and are expecting something to happen soon. Who will the hawks target next?
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#306
"many countries which do better than the UK, trade with the EU and are not EU members - do a lot better than the UK - so that is that argument permanently trashed!"
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This is, with respect, appalling logic. Most major (in fact all, Germany, France, Italy and before the 'crisis' even Spain) economies in the EU do a lot better than the UK.
True, Australia and Canada do better and they are outside the EU. So are Japan and China but are not comparable to the UK (culture and size).
The only star performer over the last 25 years in the UK has been the City. The City, check previous posts for the reasons, will shrink dramatically if we leave the EU. Foreign banks (the majority in the City) are here because of the attractive combination of EU membership and the world language (english).
The point I keep banging on about in all my posts on the EU is that the EU in regard to the UK is a massive red herring. Our problems run deep (investment, lack of a diversified economy, poor social mobility) and leaving the EU will expose them even more.
So the argument IS NOT permanently trashed!
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304. At 10:38am on 20 Apr 2010, trylypuzzled wrote:
" 276. Free_The_Monkey: At 11:44pm on 19 Apr 2010, trylypuzzled wrote:
"Let us keep the eye on the ball: Labour has been in power for 13 years. At least in education Labour has been a complete and utter disaster; "
Oh, I accept some of this. I certainly do not, under no circumstances, accept "higher education standards". More about that in a minute, but I ask you: what does all the rest matter if the standards of education have fallen?
**
So you initially implied that education was an utter and complete disaster and now you seemingly accept some of the improvements I mentioned, such as smaller class sizes, new schools and more classroom assistants. You seem to accept classroom assistants but say their hours have been cut. Well that might be true in some places recently, but surely you'll not telling me that there are now fewer classroom assistants doing fewer hours compared with 1997? It simply is not true. There were hardly any classroom assistants in sec or primary school in 1997.
On the question of education standards, your case seems to be based wholly on your personal experience in one university. Now that may say more about the declining fortunes of your particular uni and its recruitment of the weakest students in any student cohort. Some unis are like that. But your experience is not typical of education in this country since 1997 or even over the last 9 years.
A few further comments.
With more people going to uni, there will be a tail of disadvantaged students at uni, so I suspect you're not comparing like with like.
English: well apart from the obvious conclusion that the more able students may be avoiding your institution there are several other possible reasons for your experience. For example, there are growing numbers of students who have English as an additional language, there are many more foreign students, more mature students (who were last educated under the Tories) so a lot would depend upon your uni's admission criteria. So at one level I'm not surprised some students need help with English, esp writing effectively. It is not a problem with some UK students.
Your example of you trying to recycle a course from 9 years earlier is not good educational practice. I hope you weren't winding a roll of OHPs over a projector. I thought a course needed to be fresh and relevant to engage the students. Besides don't students learn differently now compared with even 9 years ago (Anyway, if students were that good 9 years ago, wasn't that under labour?-lol)
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Richard Dingle
The only sensible way to reduce the deficit is to go for growth and raise taxes. Taxes will have to go up it is unavoidable' though in a way that minimises any negative effect on growth.
And how can you raise taxes without it effecting growth. How very naive you are. Every action has an effect and raising taxes has an adverse effect for if you raise them too much you stifle growth and restrict investment. Why would anyone invest in a country who wants to take the lion share of profits. This has already been the case for a number of organisation who have moved their HQ out of the UK and more could well follow. And although you may well think that that is OK if BP or its like were to leave there would be a large gaping whole in the public finances. Never mind just raise tax es to cover it.....
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I see that the pro-EU (= anti-democracy) crowd is throwing the 'EU is beneficial' lies around again. In fact, most countries would be better off without the EU. The EU only benefits politicians and banker types (+ assorted bureaucrats).
Trade would also exist without EU, therefore trade cannot be seen or counted as an 'EU-benefit'. In fact, without EU, trading with Australia, India, New Zealand and indeed USA would be easier and with less trade barriers. The EU, by the way, is not a free trade area but a customs union. Just ask African fishermen and farmers, the EU hates them and tries to steal their chance of a decent livelyhood.
My country (Netherlands) a lot of people here hate the EU too, particularly since it is so undemocratic. And I personally don't know anyone (who isn't a politician) who loves the Euro currency. We don't want more integration, or a political EU, or fiscal union. We keep saying no but the arrogant elitists keep ignoring us.
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275 trylypuzzled
Let us just say that they are a means to peace and contentment for all.
Old fashioned, I know. No market opportunites, I know. No manipulative dogma, I know. And the bovine biological solids will be rotted and put on the garden to grow fruit and vegetables rather than squirted over all and sundry just to keep them in their place.
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Spain...then us
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308. At 10:56am on 20 Apr 2010, Chris London wrote:
"There has been areas of improvement however there has not been a proportional increase to the amount of money spent. In fact productivity in the NHS is now at a ten year low."
*
Even if true, there is no reason why a labour intensive service should be expected to show proportionate increases in service. Diminishing marignal producutivity can set in, but it doens;t mean the investment is unjustified or unnecessary.
Also measuring labour productivity in an labour intensive public service is notorously difficult as I've made clear before. It has never been reliably measured, even by ONS, and to claim (as you do) that labour productivity in the NHS has fallen without any qualification is simply misleading.
Just think about it, more nurses on the ward would on your crude thinking would be criticised because with the same (one patient per bed rule!) labour productivity would decline. But some a simplistc assessment says nothing about the quality oif health care. In fact, your pursuit of maximum labour productivity would suggest you're in favour of just one nurse per hospital.
Why should the NHS be sacrificed on the alter of some notional measure of labour productivity?
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#312
"Who will the hawks target next?"
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The UK.
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#310
"Beyond all doubt you have proved that you have no idea about anything in the real world, even when confronted with TRUTH"
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Ah so Glasshopper, what is the TRUTH.
Truth like onion, peel one layer, peel another layer, peel another layer, then get next onion.
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#320
"Even if true, there is no reason why a labour intensive service should be expected to show proportionate increases in service. Diminishing marignal producutivity can set in, but it doens;t mean the investment is unjustified or unnecessary."
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True and well put.
Sometimes you have to spend just to stop sliding backwards.
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#314: if students were that good 9 years ago, wasn't that under labour?-lol)
Dear FTM, you seem to have confused my mail with someone else's, never mind.
I repeat (for the last time):
1. If standards are falling, all the rest is window dressing.
2. Standards are falling, year on year, and my experience is not only "from one University", as I have children, colleagues and friends, I listen and watch.
The big difference between students I had in, say 2000 and now is that the ones now cannot engage with the written word. The area I work in is not English, it is one of the more demanding sciences, and understanding what you read is crucial. You can give 10 examples and then ask the student to do an identical 11th, but where is the point in that. That is what schools (private and state) do, making children confuse learning with regurgitation.
In my area many things are only understandable if the concepts are allowed to be slowly turned over in the mind, again and again. Noone teaches this generation of students either the method or the need to do that. They crave instant gratification, and if they do not understand immediately. assume it is someone else's fault. This is fundamentally barbarian.
Yes, 2000 was under Labour. I could not pinpoint for you when the decline started. I can just tell you that we have Erasmus and Chinese students and the difference between UK students and foreign ones makes me sad and (why should it?) ashamed. Labour have been in power long enough for me honestly (I do not vote Conservative; by the way our local Conservative candidate makes one think his inner monkey has been freed) to lay the blame at their door.
You have no reason to doubt my teaching ability and methods, so I suggest you don't, not even for a cheap laugh.
Better ask yourself if you understand what "understanding" means, and how anything in the school curriculum furthers understanding rather than jumping through arbitrary hoops.
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#298 Jeremy Silverstone,
I do take your point about being wrong - that is a valid standpoint. Normally I would tend for some mid-point, not really satisfying for either side but something that could be lived with. However,this time I think that the stakes are too high.
If we find a good mix of experience and learning then we may be well on the way to finding a realistic strategy that can help us avoid military coflict.
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Free_the_Monkey
These are not taken from the ONS but clinicians themselves. So it is they who are saying that they are doing less with more. But what the hell lets not get bogged down with facts when you can use spin.
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# 312 - as I understand, the reason Potugal are being targeted is that whilst its public debt is not as a high as some countries, it has relatively high levels of private debt (more than twice the levels of private debt than in Greece as a proportion of GDP) and there is a fair chance that this private debt will eventually find its way onto the public balance sheet. Of course, the UK also high levels of private/household and corporate debt so we are also exposed. Having our own currency rather than being tied into the Euro does help in the current situation.
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I have been ridiculed and abused on here for saying that spending 3 times as much on the NHS in 2011 (based on planned spending) is not giving us 3 times the service
It is good to have this point made by someone else
Let's see if they attract the same abuse I did, when making the identical point
Starting to solve a problem with money is never a good idea
Work out the best solution THEN cost it
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#328
"I have been ridiculed and abused on here for saying that spending 3 times as much on the NHS in 2011 (based on planned spending) is not giving us 3 times the service"
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Why should it be 3 times better.
What possible logic or theory says it should be.
Explain.
The inputs should be known and the expected outputs set and then the actual outputs measured.
And how do you measure 'better'.
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329
Until you refrain from your childish abuse I will not be explaining anything to you
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313. At 11:26am on 20 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
#306
"many countries which do better than the UK, trade with the EU and are not EU members - do a lot better than the UK - so that is that argument permanently trashed!"
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This is, with respect, appalling logic. Most major (in fact all, Germany, France, Italy and before the 'crisis' even Spain) economies in the EU do a lot better than the UK.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
So what is your point here?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
True, Australia and Canada do better and they are outside the EU. So are Japan and China but are not comparable to the UK (culture and size).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Other countries also - e.g Switzerland, Norway (which has adopted more EU regulations than any other country except Denmark)
So its 'true'
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The only star performer over the last 25 years in the UK has been the City. The City, check previous posts for the reasons, will shrink dramatically if we leave the EU. Foreign banks (the majority in the City) are here because of the attractive combination of EU membership and the world language (english).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The City was there for hundreds of years before the EU!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The point I keep banging on about in all my posts on the EU is that the EU in regard to the UK is a massive red herring. Our problems run deep (investment, lack of a diversified economy, poor social mobility) and leaving the EU will expose them even more.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes - all these problems not helped - in fact getting worse while the UK is a UK member
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
So the argument IS NOT permanently trashed!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
So where is the 'evidence' - the appalling logic is yours - 'permanently trashed' through lack of any evidence.
Norway has shown all and sundry - How to do it and be successful and sustainable and mind their own business in world affairs!
We've got nothing to show for EU membership except non-existent and unsafe borders and being told by socialist politicains that we must import foreign labour because we cannot stop it under EU/HUman Rights law and in any case - the foreigners are better than us and so it is not worth re-training or re-skilling an unemployed Brit
That's all we get from official bureacratic EU membership and huge annual and ever increasing costs while the likes of the Kinnocks get richer and richer - they're voting Tory this time - they're now Tory voters - its the inheritance taxes!
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I think the problem which no one wants to face up to is that the NHS does not give value for money. It does not have modern procedures and processes with regards to the administration of treatment. This could be rectified but would need a strong person to push it through.
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#328
"I have been ridiculed and abused on here for saying that spending 3 times as much on the NHS in 2011 (based on planned spending) is not giving us 3 times the service"
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Based on personal experience I am getting 3.141592654 better service from the NHS compared to 10 years ago.
It is not pie in the sky.
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#328 Kevinb,
As for the NHS then you must really be a *>^!!~ as well as having the intellect of a r*^&%!
NOW DID THAT MAKE YOU HAPPY
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324. trylypuzzled , so you wrote:
"That is what schools (private and state) do, making children confuse learning with regurgitation."
**
So now you're blaming the labour government for declining standards of private education too. That's a bit rich. Well your antedotal evidence does not stand up to scrutiny and is not representative of education generally. Perhaps your uni justed attracted the tail enders...
With more disadvantaged pupils going to uni, it is inevitable that some uni staff (esp if working in unis that attract "access" students) will have difficulty engaging such students. While these disadvantaged students typically account for a small proportion of the student cohort, they will expect unis to do some proper teaching..Shock horror.
But apart from this tail of disadvantaged students, the vast majority of uni students are showing higher standards.
**
326. Chris London wrote:
Free_the_Monkey
These are not taken from the ONS but clinicians themselves. So it is they who are saying that they are doing less with more. But what the hell lets not get bogged down with facts when you can use spin."
**
Not very impressive. But the point is that you have not produced one fact yet. But I see you will not let your lack of real evidence get in your way. So you jsut throw in a slogan: "Doing less with more"! Sounds like the next Tory poster!
"Doing less with more": and the source of your "factoid" -I mean spin- is what precisely?
Your comment (332) that the NHS "does not have modern procedures and processes with regards to the administration of treatment" is (on its own) just empty rhetoric.
What so-called "modern procedures and processes are you looking for? I though we all wanted matron back on every ward.
Again your "factoid" is contradicted by the real facts on the ground. Local GP surgeries and local hospitals are much improved compared with 1997. Real fact.
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335
You of course, are right every time, on every issue, whereas everyone else is always wrong on every issue
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#330
"Until you refrain from your childish abuse I will not be explaining anything to you"
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How can...
'Why should it be 3 times better.
What possible logic or theory says it should be.
Explain.
The inputs should be known and the expected outputs set and then the actual outputs measured.
And how do you measure 'better'.'
.... be 'childish abuse'.
If you can't explain admit it.
It is obvious your comment re. NHS was unexplainable.
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#331
"The City was there for hundreds of years before the EU!"
Indeed, the old City was insurance, and later banking. The rivalling of New York happened after 1975 with EEC membership and the 1980's with deregulation.
If a Japanese bank sets up in the City it will employ people from all over Europe who speak english as a second language and can come to London without the hassle of getting a visa. That is the attraction.
We are not going to agree on this. I am very pro EU.
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338. At 5:28pm on 20 Apr 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:
#331
"The City was there for hundreds of years before the EU!"
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I might just get the last say here!
Britain's official membership of the Eurozone is now an anochronism as in 1974 we did not have:
- the modern PC/internet/fibre optic cables
- mobile phones
- commercial satellites
- channel tunnel
- maasive expansion in commercial air traffic
These have all rendered the need to be an EU member state in its current format - to be obsolete.
The French Trade Unions still block the channel ports with strikes just about every time I take ferry/drive onto the continent- and the EU take no action.
I can see that you are pro EU - as it is - I would like to see the EU singificantly reformed until it does exactly the minimum of what it really needs to do and no more as 'it fails' in just about every area that can be mentioned and the perceived benefits/opportunities/costs to Britain are there anyway - as they always have been.
What I think Britain needs is a much better understanding with France/Benelux, in particular as these should be where Britain should 'comprehensively refocus' - but not at the condition of being continually held to ransom at channel ports!
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