Project on Middle East Democracy

Project on Middle East Democracy
The POMED Wire


Egypt: Transition to Democracy May Face Constitutional Obstacles

February 4th, 2011 by Alec

As the U.S.  seeks to encourage Hosni Mubarak’s possible resignation, several commentators have pointed out that the current Egyptian constitution could present some obstacles to an immediate resignation.  Hossam Bahgat and Soha Abdelaty of the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, state that under current law, if Mubarak were to resign, the speaker of parliament, Fathi Surur (not the new Vice President Omar Suleiman), would assume the presidency as an interim president.  They argue that Surer is simply a regime stalwart who has used his legal expertise to enact abusive laws designed to keep the regime in power and that his assumption of the presidency, even in an interim context, would be problematic. Suleiman would be a lesser evil even though they regard him little more than “Mubarak II.” However, this would require a special presidential decree that can only be issued by Mubarak himself.  They point out that he has already done so twice, in 2004 and 2009, when he was hospitalized.

Such a decree would allow Mubarak to officially stay in office as an “honorary president”  while Suleiman would be able to assume powers to lead a provisional authority.  Amr Hamzawy, an Egyptian political scientist says such a deal would be accepted by pro-democracy protesters as a compromise as long as “safeguards” were put in place to end the state of emergency that has existed since 1981.  Bahgat and Abdelaty agree that the lifting of the emergency law is essential and would require another presidential decree from Mubarak.  Hamzawy argues that the transition needs to begin immediately.

Nathan Brown, writing for Foreign Policyargues for suspending the constitution entirely which would necessitate negotiations between the regime and the opposition outside the existing rules.  Such negotiations would be difficult and confusing and require much more from the opposition that it has offered up.  However Brown says that this option is the only one that offers the possibility of real political change: “It may be the best outcome and it is what the opposition is effectively demanding.”


Posted in Egypt, Human Rights, Reform |

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