Chas Freeman on “The Passing of the Residual Elements of a Colonial Order”

This is a note from Chas Freeman.

It seems to me that one way to interpret what is happening in the Middle East is that it marks the belated passing of the residual elements of a colonial order that had never really been transcended despite the hard knock it received thirty years ago from the Islamic revolution in Iran.

This order derived its legitimacy from a peculiar mixture of imperial dispensations of territory (the Balfour Declaration was, after all, colonialist in origin, tone, and inspiration) and linkages between local elites and their former colonial masters (the favored position of Lebanese Christians being only one of many examples) or foreign kin (Israel). Cold War maneuvering between the contending superpowers fostered neo-colonial relationships of dependency on one or the other of them by countries like Israel (whose prosperity and hegemony have depended on U.S. and Diaspora subventions and subsidies), Egypt (which switched sides to call off the fight with Israel and go on a better payroll), Syria (which failed to maneuver successfully and was orphaned when the USSR imploded), and Iraq (which mistakenly gambled on its judgment that the end of superpower rivalry meant an end to U.S. interest in the region). The degree of dependence on foreign backing by both Israeli and Arab elites (as well as Iranian elites before 1979) vastly exceeds that in any other region of the world. It’s been a good deal for them, if not for those over whom they rule, but I sense it is now coming to an end.

What may also be ending is the fatalistic passivity and groveling to power that have made the Arab world stand out among the world’s great civilizations as the only one not to have seen a rebirth of intellect, wealth, and power. (Iran’s attempt at achieving this has so far largely failed but at least Iran made the effort.) The contrast with renewed Chinese, Indian, and Turkish vigor and self-confidence (not to mention the Japanese in an earlier era) has been striking. It is too early to say whether the energy of the Tunisian and Egyptian streets heralds a turn toward Arabs similarly taking charge of their own destiny, but I think it is a possibility worth watching — whatever the immediate outcome in terms of quality of governance.

Leon Hadar has made the useful point that, if the relevant analogy to Egypt and its Revolution is Poland and Solidarity, then the United States stands in the position of the Soviet Union and Obama in the role of Gorbachev. That is not encouraging in terms of either choices or outcomes. Whatever happens, the ebb of U.S. power in the Middle East is now at riptide.

* [Chas Freedman worked as the interpreter for Richard Nixon in his 1972 China visit and as the United States Ambassador to Saudi Arabia from 1989 to 1992, where he dealt with issues related to the Persian Gulf War. He is a past president of the Middle East Policy Council, co-chair of the U.S. China Policy Foundation, and vice-chair of the Atlantic Council.]

Perry Anderson wrote this more than ten years ago.  h/t Scott McConnell and Jeet Heer

So long as both of the key Arab powers—Egypt with its population, and Saudi Arabia with its petroleum—remain client-states of America, the Middle East and its oil are safely in US hands, and there is no reason to deny Israel anything it wishes. But should that ever change, the fate of the Palestinians would instantly alter. America has invested enormous sums to sustain Mubarak’s moth-eaten dictatorship in Cairo, cordially despised by the Egyptian masses, and spared no effort to protect the feudal plutocracy in Riyadh, perched above a sea of rightless immigrants. If either of these edifices were toppled—in the best of cases, both—the balance of power in the region would be transformed.

From Swoop -  thanks FLC

“…The crisis in Egypt continues to dominate the foreign policy agenda, but no longer threatens to overwhelm it. US officials concede that the Administration got off to a slow start, but they now believe that they have established a productive dialogue with their Egyptian counterparts, both on the government and opposition sides. The prospects for an “orderly transition” have improved measurably, with Secretary of Defense Gates playing a considerable role in this effort.

As one State Department official commented privately to us: “We now have a chance of emerging from this crisis without having to make a one-sided choice between democracy and stability.” Despite this guarded optimism, however, the Administration is well aware that the US posture in the Middle East may be at a turning point. A National Security Council official commented: “Egypt has been the pivot on which our presence in the region has depended. If we now face a less sympathetic government there, the implications are far-reaching.” With the course of the crisis still far from settled, US is quietly stepping up its interactions with Saudi Arabia, passing assurances to the Saudi monarchy that the US unwillingness to support President Mubarak does not imply that the US any hesitation to support the Saudi leadership if confronted by a similar challenge.

US officials are also assessing how any forthcoming changes in Egypt might impact Israel’s position in the region. A series of high level meetings has been held with Jewish organizations to provide reassurance about the US “unshakeable” commitment to Israel. Nonetheless, the prospect that Israel may find itself further isolated in the Middle East is troubling US diplomatic planners…”

Israel predicts Egypt regime will survive, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

Israel expects that the regime of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will survive pro-democracy protests that have shaken the country over the past three days, government officials and analysts said….

Adam Shatz writes: (Thanks to Paul Woodward)

Mubarak, when he stands down, is not likely to be missed by many people in Egypt, where he has pledged to spend his last days, but he will be missed in Washington and, above all, in Tel Aviv. Mubarak and Omar Suleiman, now the interim vice president, worked closely with Israel on everything from the Gaza blockade to intelligence-gathering; they allowed Israeli warships into the Suez Canal to prevent weapons smuggling into Gaza from Sudan, and did their best to stir up tensions between Fatah and Hamas. The Egyptian public is well aware of this intimate collaboration, and ashamed of it: democratisation could spell its end. A democratic government isn’t likely to abolish the peace treaty with Israel – even some of the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood have said they would respect it. But Egyptian foreign policy would be set in Cairo rather than in Washington and Tel Aviv, and the cold peace would grow colder. A democratic government in Cairo would have to take public opinion into account, much as Erdogan’s government does in Turkey: another former US client state but one that, in marked contrast to Egypt, has escaped American tutelage, made the transition to democracy under an Islamist government, and pursued an independent foreign policy that is widely admired in the Muslim world. If Egypt became a democracy, it might work to achieve Palestinian unity, open up the crossing from Gaza and improve relations with Iran and Hizbullah: shifts which would be anathema to Israel.

How Syria dodged an Egypt-style ‘day of rage’ – Christian Science Monitor

Outside opposition groups had called for protests in Syria over the weekend. Why did only security forces and hopeful journalists show up?….

Ex-official: Direct Israel-Syria talks were close
The Associated Press

A high-ranking official in the previous Israeli government says Israel and Syria were close to resuming direct peace talks in late 2008, and that the Syrians signaled readiness to ease past demands for a full Israeli withdrawal from captured lands.

Turkish-mediated talks between the two sides were to have progressed to direct talks in December 2008. But Israel launched a war against Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip that month. The ex-official in the government of former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says the fighting derailed the planned talks.

He says that if the direct talks had started, a deal could have been reached within a month or two. He spoke on condition of anonymity because of the political and diplomatic sensitivities surrounding the talks.

Egyptian army seen as riven by factionalism
By David Blair and Helen Warrell in London
Sunday, February 06, 2011 Financial Times – Saturday, 05 February 2012

Throughout the crisis in Cairo, the Egyptian army has presented itself as a united and professional force, dedicated to protecting the nation’s security.

But official US assessments, contained in diplomatic cables from the Cairo embassy, paint a very different picture.

Far from being a monolithic entity, the notoriously opaque army is described as being riven by factionalism and mistrust, with President Hosni Mubarak acting to contain the power of individual generals.

The cables – part of a trove obtained by whistleblowing website WikiLeaks, some of which have not been released publicly until now – portray an army in steady decline in which disdainful mid-ranking officers are reported as privately dubbing Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, the defence minister, “Mubarak’s poodle”.

The dispatches also report the armed forces’ “uneasiness” with the potential succession of Gamal Mubarak, Mr Mubarak’s son, to the presidency, largely because the younger Mubarak never finished his military service.

But even as they describe disquiet among junior officers, the cables also delineate Mr Mubarak’s firm hold on the military’s top ranks and how he has sought to minimise the risk of a challenge from his generals by establishing “firewalls”.

“Mubarak has no single confidante or adviser who can truly speak for him and he has prevented any of his main advisers from operating outside their strictly circumscribed spheres of power,” reads a May 2009 “scene setter” for the Egyptian’s first visit to Washington since the arrival of the Obama administration.

One cable records an appraisal given by Major General Michael Collings, head of the Office of Military Co-operation at the US embassy. “The military is as effective as President Mubarak wants it to be, and the leadership has created intentional firewalls in command and control so that only the senior command can control operational readiness,” he told a US official in February 2008.

After Mr Mubarak, Field Marshal Tantawi sits at the apex of the military command structure, with Lieutenant General Sami Enan, the army’s chief of staff, immediately under him.

Below them, however, responsibility is carefully divided between five regional commands, ensuring that no other figure has operational authority over the whole country.

Maj Gen Collings added that Egypt’s defence ministry had a “culture” of “maintaining tight control over internal and external communications from the very top of the ministry”.

Mr Mubarak’s strategy is a common one among authoritarian regimes, according to Brigadier Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “The aim is to make sure that no state organ has a sufficient predominance of armed force that it could mount a coup without armed opposition.”

In the same cable, the US embassy recommends trying to “bring younger Egyptian military and civilian officials into a new way of thinking through trips to the US and increased engagement”.

The picture of a divided military that has fallen from the height of its power is most vividly expressed in a September 2008 cable, in which academics consulted by the US embassy describe a “disgruntled mid-level officer corps harshly critical of a defence minister they perceive as incompetent”.

These officers call Field Marshal Tantawi “Mubarak’s poodle”, and claim that he is “running the military into the ground”, according to one academic quoted in the cable. The fact that the ministry of defence “does not hesitate to fire officers it perceives as ‘too competent’ and therefore a threat to the regime” is given as further evidence of questionable leadership.

One of the bluntest indications of decline is from a retired general, who points out that because salaries have fallen “far below” what is offered in the private sector, “a military career is no longer an attractive option for ambitious young people who aspire to join the new business elite instead”.

The cable’s conclusion is that the military still remains a “potent political and economic force” largely because of the prevalence of military-owned companies in the water, construction and gas industries, and the army’s land ownership along the Red Sea coast.

But the idea the institution would act as a source of stability in a succession – in which senior officers would be expected to back Gamal Mubarak, despite their reservations about his military credentials – is presciently tempered by the acknowledgement that in a “messier” succession scenario, the army’s actions would be harder to predict.

“The military’s built-in firewalls and communication breaks make it unlikely that these officers could independently install a new leader,” the cable reads.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2011.

Mubarak’s new deputy linked to CIA rendition program…
By Agence France-Presse, Monday, January 31st, 2011 — 9:20 pm

WASHINGTON — The man named by President Hosni Mubarak as his first ever deputy, Egyptian spy chief Omar Suleiman, reportedly orchestrated the brutal interrogation of terror suspects abducted by the CIA in a secret program condemned by rights groups.

His role in the controversial “war on terror” illustrates the ties that bind the United States and the Egyptian regime, as an unprecedented wave of protests against Mubarak’s rule presents Washington with a difficult dilemma.

With Mubarak in jeopardy, Suleiman was anointed vice president last week and is now offering wide ranging talks with the opposition in a bid to defuse the crisis.

Suleiman is a sophisticated operator who carried out sensitive truce negotiations with Israel and the Palestinians as well as talks among rival Palestinian factions, winning the praise of American diplomats.

For US intelligence officials, he has been a trusted partner willing to go after Islamist militants without hesitation, targeting homegrown radical groups Gamaa Islamiya and Jihad after they carried out a string of attacks on foreigners. A product of the US-Egyptian relationship, Suleiman underwent training in the 1980s at the John F. Kennedy Special Warfare School and Center at Fort Bragg in North Carolina.

As spy chief, Suleiman reportedly embraced the CIA’s controversial “extraordinary rendition” program, in which terror suspects snatched by the Americans were taken to Egypt and other countries without legal proceedings and subjected to interrogations. He “was the CIA’s point man in Egypt for rendition,” Jane Mayer, author of “The Dark Side,” wrote on the New Yorker’s website.

After taking over as spy director, Suleiman oversaw an agreement with the United States in 1995 that allowed for suspected militants to be secretly transferred to Egypt for questioning, according to the book “Ghost Plane” by journalist Stephen Grey. Human rights groups charge the detainees have often faced torture and mistreatment in Egypt and elsewhere, accusing the US government of violating its own legal obligations by handing over suspects to regimes known for abuse.

In the run-up to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, the CIA relied on Suleiman to accept the transfer of a detainee known as Ibn Sheikh al-Libi, who US officials hoped could prove a link between Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Al-Qaeda. The suspect was bound and blindfolded and flown to Cairo, where the CIA believed their longtime ally Suleiman would ensure a successful interrogation, according to “The One Percent Doctrine” by author Ron Suskind.

A US Senate report in 2006 describes how the detainee was locked in a cage for hours and beaten, with Egyptian authorities pushing him to confirm alleged connections between Al-Qaeda and Saddam. Libi eventually told his interrogators that the then Iraqi regime was moving to provide Al-Qaeda with biological and chemical weapons.

When the then US secretary of state Colin Powell made the case for war before the United Nations, he referred to details of Libi’s confession. The detainee eventually recanted his account.

Bloomberg

Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel is “rock solid, …. I assume Egypt will continue to respect it,” ElBaradei said when asked about the current treaty. He also said “everyone in Egypt, everyone in the Arab world wants to see an independent Palestinian state.”

Robert Dreyfuss sent this:

From David Letterman, via today’s New York Times Week in Review: “The good news is Hosni Mubarak may step down. The bad news is he’s going to be replaced by his idiot son, Hosni W. Mubarak.”

Clinton: Omar Suleiman should lead transition; Wisner: Mubarak “must stay in office” during a power transition

Egypt unrest: Hosni Mubarak must stay – US envoy – BBC

Frank Wisner: ‘This is an ideal moment for Mubarak to show the way forward.’ Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak “must stay in office” during a power transition, a US special envoy says. Frank Wisner was speaking as protesters kept up their demands for Mr Mubarak to step down immediately.

Mr Mubarak has pledged to quit in September. Earlier, he replaced the entire politburo of his ruling party, including his son Gamal.

President Barack Obama has urged Mr Mubarak to “make the right decision” and to begin the transition “now”.

The US state department has refused to comment on Mr Wisner’s remarks, in which he also hailed the Egyptian ruling party resignations.

Financial Times reports:

Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, has indicated that Omar Suleiman, the Egyptian Vice President, should be given the opportunity to manage a peaceful transition of power in Cairo, stressing that Washington wants to see the move to a new political system achieved in as “orderly” a manner as possible.

Hilary Clinton’s words:

AMBASSADOR ISCHINGER: Thank you. Madam Secretary, before you conclude our session, let me inform our participants that we just received a report that there has been an attempt on the life of the vice president of Egypt, with apparently several people killed, which underlines the severity of the situation, as it evolves. We will keep you posted as — the news coming in, I’m sure, over the next several minutes or so.

Madam Secretary?

SECRETARY CLINTON: Well, I think that news report certainly brings into sharp relief the challenges that we are facing as we navigate through this period……

But there are forces at work in any society, and particularly one that is facing these kinds of challenges, that will try to derail or overtake the process to pursue their own specific agenda, which is why I think it’s important to support the transition process announced by the Egyptian Government, actually headed by now Vice President Omar Suleiman, who was the target of the attack that Wolfgang apparently just learned of, and that it be a transparent, inclusive process to set forth concrete steps that people who are engaged in it and looking at it can believe is moving forward the outcomes that will permit an orderly establishment of the elections that are scheduled for September…..

There is a great economic pressure building up inside Egypt. In addition to the news that Wolfgang shared, there is also reports of one of the major pipelines being sabotaged. There are a lot of actions that are out of anyone’s control in any position of responsibility in leadership inside Egypt and outside Egypt. And part of what we have to do is to send a consistent message supporting the orderly transition that has begun, urging that it be not only transparent and sincere, but very concrete, so that the Egyptian people and those of us on the outside can measure the progress that is being made……

Steve Hayes in the Weekly Standard :

“This is not about trying to open up Egypt to the Muslim Brotherhood,” one senior administration official told me. “The Muslim Brotherhood is the opposite of democracy. They want to use the democratic process, exploit the democratic process, for their own ends. We have zero enthusiasm for the Muslim Brotherhood. We want a secular Egypt, a democratic Egypt.”

Mr.  Natan Sharansky says that in a 2007 meeting in Prague, President Bush told him that the U.S. supports Mr. Mubarak—to the tune of nearly $2 billion in annual aid—because if it didn’t, the Brotherhood would take over Egypt.  (From the WSJ)

Egypt Officials Seek to Nudge Mubarak Out
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and DAVID E. SANGER, February 5, 2011, New York Times

CAIRO — As Egypt’s protest entered its 12th day on Saturday, President Hosni Mubarak appeared increasingly isolated after hundreds of thousands of protesters returned to Tahrir Square on Friday and the Obama administration and some members of the Egyptian military and civilian elite pursued plans to nudge him from power.

The country’s newly named vice president, Omar Suleiman, and other top military leaders were discussing steps to limit Mr. Mubarak’s decision-making authority and possibly remove him from the presidential palace in Cairo — though not to strip him of his presidency immediately, Egyptian and American officials said. A transitional government headed by Mr. Suleiman would then negotiate with opposition figures to amend Egypt’s Constitution and begin a process of democratic changes. ….

In the opening stages of what promises to be a protracted round of negotiations, the diplomat Mohamed ElBaradei said in a news conference at his home near Cairo that opposition lawyers were preparing an interim Constitution. He said the opposition was calling on Mr. Mubarak to turn over power to a council of two to five members who would run the country until elections within a year.

Only one member would come from the military, Mr. ElBaradei said, adding that the armed forces’ most important task now was to “protect Egypt’s transition period in a smooth manner.”

“We have no interest in retribution,” he said. “Mubarak must leave in dignity and save his country.”

Mohamed el-Beltagui, a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, the outlawed Islamist group that had been the major opposition in Egypt until the secular youth revolt, said that the organization would not run a candidate in any election to succeed Mr. Mubarak as president.

He said his members wanted to rebut Mr. Mubarak’s argument to the West that his iron-fisted rule was a crucial bulwark against Islamic extremism. “It is not a retreat,” he said in an interview at the group’s informal headquarters in the square. “It is to take away the scare tactics that Hosni Mubarak uses to deceive the people here and abroad that he should stay in power.” ..

The Special US Envoy, Amb Wisner has just said Mubarak needs to stay in power to oversee the transition, repeating Mubarak’s own mantra of 60 years of service, need for stability …etc.

Crisis in Egypt Tests U.S. Ties With Israel
www.nytimes.com
Diplomats worry about a regional realignment in which Israel would be left feeling more isolated and its enemies emboldened.

Obama administration officials have been on the telephone almost daily with their Israeli counterparts urging them to “please chill out,” in the words of one senior administration official, as President Obama has raced to respond to the rapidly unfolding events. …

Israeli government officials started out urging the Obama administration to back Mr. Mubarak, administration officials said, and were initially angry at Mr. Obama for publicly calling on the Egyptian leader to agree to a transition.

“The Israelis are saying, après Mubarak, le deluge,” said Daniel Levy, a former Israeli peace negotiator. And that, in turn, Mr. Levy said, “gets to the core of what is the American interest in this. It’s Israel. It’s not worry about whether the Egyptians are going to close down the Suez Canal, or even the narrower terror issue. It really can be distilled down to one thing, and that’s Israel.” …

Supporters of Israel in the United States have been focusing on playing up the dangers they see as inherent in a democratic Egyptian government that contains, or is led by, elements of the now-banned Muslim Brotherhood, which opposes Egypt’s 1979 peace treaty with Israel.

In an e-mail on Friday to reporters and editors, Josh Block, a former spokesman for AIPAC, the influential Jewish-American lobbying organization, suggested “questions to ask the Muslim Brotherhood & Their Allies.”

The first question on Mr. Block’s list: “Can the Muslim Brotherhood participate in a government where Egypt continues to fulfill Egypt’s obligations to Israel under the Camp David Accords?”

Obama officials say that the United States cannot rule out the possibility of engagement with the Muslim Brotherhood — the largest opposition group in Egypt — at the same time that it is espousing support for a democratic Egypt.

“… few destinations appear to be as important to potential 2012 Republican presidential field these days as Israel. Former Arkansas governor and Fox News host Mike Huckabee has spent the past week in Israel, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was there last month, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour left Friday for a five-day trip, andSarah Palin has indicated she has plans to go later this year. The trips offer potential candidates a chance to boost their standing with the Jewish and evangelical voters in the U.S….”

Time: Syria Is Not Egypt, but Might It One Day Be Tunisia?
2011-02-05 Time

Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak has yet to answer his people’s demands to step down, but echoes of that call are reverberating around the region. In a frantic effort to stave off the potentially destabilizing protests that already ushered out the …

Syria weathers Mideast unrest for now; ‘Days of Rage’ fail to come off
ZEINA KARAM
Associated Press
February 5, 2011

DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) — Syria’s president recently boasted that his country, one of the Arab world’s most stifling regimes, is immune to the upheaval roiling other Arab countries. He was proven right — at least for the time being.

A weeklong online campaign failed to galvanize the kinds of mass protests that have rocked Tunisia and Egypt in recent weeks. In fact, no one showed up Friday and Saturday for what were to be “days of rage” against the Syrian president’s iron-fisted rule.

By Saturday afternoon, the number of plainclothes security agents stationed protectively in key areas of the old city of the capital, Damascus, had begun to dwindle.

“The only rage in Syria yesterday was the rage of nature,” wrote Syrian journalist Ziad Haidar, in reference to a cold spell and heavy rain lashing the country….

A major difference is that Assad — unlike leaders in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen and Jordan — is not allied with the United States, so he is spared the accusation that he caters to American demands….

Although he keeps a tight lid on any form of political dissent, he is seen by many Arabs as one of the few leaders in the region willing to stand up to Israel.

His backing for Palestinian and Lebanese militant groups opposed to the Jewish state, as well as his opposition to the U.S. invasion of Iraq, appears to have helped him maintain a level of popular support.

Israel’s continued occupation of Syria’s strategic Golan Heights also stokes nationalist sentiment, said Darwish. “This gives credibility to the Syrian leadership which is seen as fighting a legitimate cause.”

Syria, a predominantly Sunni country ruled by minority Alawites, closely controls the media and routinely jails critics of the regime. Facebook and other social networking sites are officially banned, although many Syrians still manage to access them through proxy servers.

Most of the Facebook groups that called for protests are believed to have been created by Syrians abroad — which could help explain why the planned protests fell flat.

Organizers also spoke of intimidation….

Syria Is Not Egypt, but Might It One Day Be Tunisia?
By By Aryn Baker / Beirut, Time

But don’t expect the successor of the 47-year-old regime, which he inherited from his father in 2000, to be packing his bags anytime soon. Syria may suffer the same political alienation, economic dislocation and corruption that plagues most of the region’s regimes, but its government also holds a unique position that sets it apart from the others: that of a pariah state. Assad’s Syria is the only country in the Arab world that is not beholden to Western influence or support.(See TIME’s exclusive pictures of the turmoil in Egypt.)

In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, Assad exhibited a remarkable degree of schadenfreude while describing the differences between Syria and Egypt. Egypt, he said, is supported financially by the United States, while international sanctions, he hinted, keep his government true to the anti-Americanism of the Arab street. “You have to be very closely linked to the beliefs of the people,” he said. “When there is divergence between your policy and the people’s beliefs and interests, [it] creates disturbance.” It was an oblique jab at Mubarak’s pro-Israel stance, one that has made him very unpopular both at home and elsewhere in the Middle East.

But if an unpopular foreign policy were enough to topple a regime, triumphant protestors would be picking through the rubble of collapsed governments from Algeria to Pakistan. “There are two components that make a people rebel against a ruling party,” says Omar Nashabe, a long-time Syria watcher and correspondent for the Beirut-based Arabic daily Al-Ahkbar. The first, he says, is socio-economic, and has to do with basic rights and the services of the government. The second is political and ideological. “Mubarak failed on both levels. His government failed to provide for the people. And instead of working in the true interests of Egyptians, he was serving the true interests of the United States. That made him lose credibility.” Syrians may be afflicted by poverty that stalks 14% of its population combined with an estimated 20% unemployment rate, but Assad still has his credibility, according to Nashabe.

That may be true, at least for the time being. But playing to popular sentiments won’t keep Assad immune from the massive changes sweeping the region, says Nadim Houry, Human Rights Watch’s researcher for Syria and Lebanon. “If the lesson Assad takes from Egypt is that it’s all about foreign policy, he is learning the wrong one.”

….The U.S. has no such leverage over Syria, which has been subjected to sanctions since 2004, when it was accused of supporting terrorism, destabilizing Iraq, and meddling in Lebanon (Charges Assad routinely denies). Sanctions have also had the unintended consequence of limiting in Syria the presence of the foreign democracy-promotion organizations that were instrumental in fomenting political organization and awareness in Egypt over the past several years. And while computer-savvy elites can circumvent the official ban on Facebook via proxy servers, a significant number of supporters for the protest “to end the state of emergency in Syria and end corruption” on Syria’s “Day of Rage Feb 4 and 5,” will be protesting in cities outside of Syria.

On Wednesday evening a small group of dissidents did manage to gather for a candlelight vigil in support of the activists in Egypt’s Tahrir square, but they were quickly attacked by a mob of what they assumed were plain-clothes police. When the main organizer, Suheir Atassi, went to the local police station to file a complaint, she was slapped and accused of being a “germ” and an agent of foreign powers, according to Human Rights Watch. In Aleppo, another protest organizer, Gassan Najar, was beaten and arrested, according to Syrian democracy activists. (See how Egyptians are improvising security as lawlessness grows.)

Syria has been under a continuous State of Emergency since 1963. Among other restrictions this limits the freedom assembly and speech, and any political opposition to the ruling Baath party is forbidden. But other limitations have been loosened under Assad, and there is now a fledgling independent media and the beginnings of economic reform. The government has encouraged cultural development and tourism. In many ways it could be said that Assad was attempting to drive Syria down the same path as Tunisia. … Assad seemed confident that new political and economic reforms, though slow, would eventually give the Syrian people what they want in a way that would not provoke chaos. “Today is better than six years ago,” he said. “But it is not the optimal situation. We still have a long way to go because it is a process. To be realistic, we have to wait for the next generation to bring this reform.”

That was last week. These days, he might want to consider speeding things up a little. “If Assad looks down on the roofs of Damascus or Aleppo,” says Nashabe, “he will see all the satellite dishes capturing the pictures of people taking to the streets of Cairo and Alexandria and calling for freedom, calling for the stepping down of a dictatorship, calling for freedom from the predations of secret police and oppression of the media.” He adds, “I think Assad is smart enough to push forward the reforms that he has already started in a very practical way.” If not, Syria may yet be the next name entered in the Mad-Libs blank for “Threatened Arab Regime.”

Ribal al-Asad, who is the cousin of the Syrian president, has launched a fierce attack on Syrian President Bashar al-Asad.

He said that the high prices of food, the spread of corruption, the lack of personal freedom, and the deterioration of the economic situation in Syria – all have made life for the people very difficult. He added that the rise in budget deficit, lack of water, declining oil production, and the rise in unemployment rates led to a decline in the society to the lowest rates, and this is the result of a large effort by the head of the authority in restricting the political and economic freedoms.

US: Conspiracy charges filed against Muslim students
If convicted, UC Irvine students who disrupted Israeli ambassador’s speech face anything from probation and community service to six months in jail. DA: We must decide whether we are a country of laws or a country of anarchy
Associated Press
02.05.11, 08:28 / Israel News

A group of Muslim students accused of disrupting a speech by Israeli ambassador Michael Oren at the University of California, Irvine, were charged Friday with misdemeanor conspiracy counts, ending speculation about what would come from their actions nearly a year ago.

The 11 students each face one count of misdemeanor conspiracy to disturb a meeting and one count of misdemeanor disturbance of a meeting, the Orange County district attorney’s office said. If convicted, they could face anything from probation and community service to six months in jail.

Natural gas supply to Israel cut off after blast at Egyptian terminal
JERUSALEM — Egypt temporarily suspended its natural gas supply to Israel as a security precaution after an explosion at a terminal in the northern Sinai Peninsula, Israel radio said Saturday.
(By Janine Zacharia, The Washington Post)

The syrian film director Omar Amiralay dies.

Omar Amiralay, né en 1944, est mort des suite d’une crise cardiaque à son domicile dans la capitale syrienne. Amiralay était connu notamment pour ses films documentaires exprimant pour la plupart des points de vue sévères sur le pouvoir en Syrie et dans le monde arabe. Le cinéaste avait signé le 30 janvier à Damas avec d’autres militants un communiqué saluant les mouvements de contestation en Tunisie et en Egypte. Son film “Déluge au pays du Baas” en 2003, produit par la chaîne franco-allemande ARTE, avait reçu le prix du meilleur court métrage de la biennale du cinéma arabe de l’institut du monde arabe à Paris.

‘Day of Rage’ for Syrians Fails to Draw Protesters

‘Day of Rage’ for Syrians Fails to Draw Protesters
By THE NEW YORK TIMES
Published: February 4, 2011

DAMASCUS, Syria — In stark contrast to several other Arab capitals, where hundreds of thousands of people have demonstrated against their governments, a planned “Day of Rage” in Damascus on Friday failed to attract any protesters against President Bashar al-Assad, a sign that the opposition here remains too weak to challenge one of the region’s most entrenched ruling parties. Campaigns on the social networking sites Facebook and Twitter called for Syrians to demonstrate Friday and Saturday in Damascus against the government of Mr. Assad, who inherited power in 2000 from his father, Hafez, who himself had ruled the country for nearly three decades with an iron fist.

In this Jan. 29, 2011 file photo, Syrian protesters hold candles during a vigil for those killed in the Egyptian demonstrations, near the Egyptian embassy in Damascus, Syria. The Arabic placards read:' Yes for freedom', background, and 'No for killing the Egyptian youth', foreground. By early afternoon on Friday February 4, no protesters had gathered outside Syria's parliament, where they were supposed to gather for the "Day of Rage" demonstration. (AP Photo/Muzaffar Salman)

But Damascus was relatively quiet on Friday, save for a gentle rain that washed its streets. There was a heavy presence of security forces and police officers in front of Parliament, where the protesters were planning to stage their demonstration. Men in plain clothes and the black leather jackets popular among security forces here were scattered around the area. Others sat waiting in white vehicles.

“Syria is the last country where regime change will occur,” said a political activist, speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution, like others interviewed.

“The culture of protesting is not present here. They oppressed it until they killed it,” added another activist.

The authorities are taking few chances. On Friday, security officials arrested Ghassan al-Najjar, an Islamist who leads the Islamic Democratic Current, a small opposition group based in Aleppo, rights activists said. Mr. Najjar, who is in his mid-70s, had called on Syrians in his city to demand more freedoms and bring about peaceful change.

Aside from fearing the strong security apparatus, which has never been hesitant to use force to quiet dissidents, Mr. Assad had recently announced a 17 percent pay raise for the two million Syrians who work for the government, making them unlikely to participate in any protest, activists here said.

In addition, they said, the opposition is not strong enough to lead a street movement capable of changing the government, and many here fear a situation in which the banned Muslim Brotherhood would take over if Mr. Assad were toppled.

Human Rights Watch said in a statement on Friday that at least 10 people were summoned by the police in the previous 48 hours and pressed to not demonstrate. There were also reports that prominent opposition figures like Michel Kilo and Riad Turk, among others, many of whom spent years in jail for opposing the government, were also summoned.

On Thursday, 3 Syrians were briefly detained and forced to sign pledges not to participate in future protests, after they protested, along with 12 others, against corruption and high cellphone costs.

There are two cellphone companies in Syria, M.T.N. from South Africa, and Syriatel, which is owned by Rami Makhlouf, a wealthy businessman and relative of the president, who has been labeled as a beneficiary and facilitator of public corruption in Syria by the United States.

At least 100 Syrians held a vigil in support of their Egyptian counterparts last Saturday near the Egyptian Embassy in Damascus, and quietly lit candles as police officers kept a watchful eye nearby.

Eventually, witnesses said, one of them shouted: “Oh blow, winds of change. Yesterday Tunisia became green, tomorrow Egypt will be free. Oh, winds of change, blow and sweep away injustice and shame.” As she finished, they said, officers quickly moved in, ordering them to leave immediately or else they would be detained.

“It is still soon for us,” said a Syrian activist, also speaking on the condition of anonymity. “We have time. The street is definitely not ready yet.”

Rand Paul on ABC news

Paul defended his call to end to all foreign aid — including the $3 billion the U.S. gives to Israel every year.
“I’m not singling out Israel. I support Israel. I want to be known as a friend of Israel,” Paul said, “but not with money you don’t have. We can’t just borrow from our kids’ future and give it to countries even if they are our friends.”

Paul has come under fire from supporters of Israel, but said Israel has enough financial resources to fend for itself.
“I think they’re an important ally, but I also think that their per capita income is greater than probably three-fourths of the rest of the world,” Paul said. “Should we be giving free money or welfare to a wealthy nation? I don’t think so.”

And military resources, as well. “I think they’re probably 10 years ahead of any neighboring country,” he said. “I think that their defense is very significant and probably well in advance of any of their particular enemies.”

Israeli military maneuvers in Syrian Golan Heights, 2011-02-03

DAMASCUS, Feb. 3 (Xinhua) — The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched wide-range military maneuvers in Syria’s occupied Golan Heights, the Damascus Press news website reported Thursday.

Joshua and Munif Atassi on The Take Away – NYCity’s NPR Radio today

We’ve seen a domino effect in the Mideast as protests in Tunisia sparked the continued unrest in Egypt. Over the past week opposition activists in Syria have gathered in small groups to pay homage to the protesters in Egypt, while a Facebook group, run mostly by Syrian expatriates, is trying to organize a “Day of Rage” in that country.