In a teleconference on Monday morning, U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, Scott Gration stated that the Abyei referendum will not take place as scheduled on January 9. Regarding the referendum, Special Envoy Gration believes that “…we’ve passed the opportunity for there to be a poll…” and that the future of the disputed region is now in the hands of Sudanese political leaders.
If the Abyei Referendum does not take place, it signifies the failure of the international community to implement a key provision of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement’s (CPA) Abyei Protocol. Recognizing Abyei’s status as a traditional bridge between north and south Sudan, the Abyei Protocol called for a referendum, in which its residents would vote to retain its special administrative status in the north, or join an independent Southern Sudan. This vote was to be held simultaneously with the Southern Sudan self-determination referendum on January 9, 2011.
Despite the requirements of the CPA and the 2009 Abyei Referendum Act, little progress was made to prepare for the Abyei referendum. Even though it was imperative to come to early agreement on important prerequisites, including the establishment of an Abyei Referendum Commission, voter identification and registration, and the physical preparations for the balloting, none of these provisions have been implemented.
It now appears that Abyei’s future status will be decided as part of a “political solution” agreed on between the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). Already, the issue is being discussed at the level of President Omar al-Bashir and First Vice President Salva Kiir, through the assistance of former South African President Thabo Mbeki and the African Union’s High Level Implementation Panel.
Genocide Intervention Network/Save Darfur Coalition and its partners have considered the necessary next steps in the event of a delayed Abyei referendum. In November, we released a memo detailing indispensible parts of any political settlement surrounding a delayed referendum.
“if the Abyei referendum does not happen on time, transfer administrative control of Abyei to the South, using boundaries defined by the Permanent Court of Arbitration. There are a number of options that could support the Misseriya population living north of Abyei and passing through on their grazing routes: a) a dry season integrated police force composed of both Misseriya and Dinka; b) a border security fund to support traditional and new mechanisms of cross-border conflict management and ongoing reconciliation efforts between the Dinka and Misseriya; c) a percentage of Abyei’s oil revenue that would accrue to the Misseriya community; d) a development fund to which contributions are made by the GOSS, GOS and international community; e) internationally guaranteed (and possibly internationally monitored) rights of grazing passage across the border into the South during the dry seasons; f) some form of autonomous administrative arrangements for the areas which the Misseriya inhabit seasonally in the northern part of Abyei; and g) a possible delay or interim period before the transfer of administrative control to the South.” (More details here: http://www.enoughproject.org/publications/open-memorandum-elements-possible-peace-deal-sudan)
We at Genocide Intervention Network/Save Darfur Coalition are disappointed that the CPA’s signatories were unable to implement this key provision. Any solution that the parties reach must accurately reflect the hopes of Abyei’s residents and embody the spirit, if not the letter, of the CPA’s Abyei Protocol.
