Sudan: Electoral Chaos Continues
April 13th, 2010 by Josh
As Sudan enters its third day of voting, Enough Project’s Maggie Fick describes the prevailing mood at polling places in the South as a mixture of “hope, frustration, and confusion.” She reports that many southern Sudanese, who for years saw this election as a necessary stepping stone toward full independence via the 2011 referendum, are close to “surrendering” due to irregularities with voter registries — not altogether surprising since the election is “more complex, more ambitious, and more byzantine than even most Western countries would attempt.” Sudan’s gerrymandered districts, flawed census, and biased electoral laws only compound matters and all but ensure a landslide victory for the ruling National Congress Party. Yet Fick maintains a bit of hope, pointing to the encouraging turnout as a sign that those in the South are excited for the opportunity to actively participate in deciding their country’s future, regardless of how free or fair the elections may be.
The Economist agrees that southern Sudanese are much more concerned about next year’s referendum, but notes that opposition parties elsewhere in the country are in “despair” over the poorly managed and illegitimate electoral process. “They have no second tilt at [al-Bashir] next year; if he wins they are stuck with him for at least another five years… They are also angry with foreign countries (such as America) which seem to care less about these elections (and whether they are free and fair) than about the referendum and securing the new state of South Sudan.”
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Elections, Freedom, Political Parties, Sudan | Comment »
Sudan: Polls Open with Minimal Violence, Widespread Dissatisfaction
April 12th, 2010 by Josh
Although the first day of Sudan’s multiparty election — the first of its kind in 24 years — was surprisingly peaceful, country-wide complaints of confusion and ballot irregularities, compounded by the logistical problems foreseen by multiple observers, prompted the National Election Commission (NEC) to extend the voting period from three to five days. “The decision is based on the results of the first day and to enable all the electors to vote and to compensate the lost time due to errors and obstacles of the first day,” the NEC said in a statement. Calling Sunday a “wasted day,” the campaign manager for Salva Kiir, one of the leaders of the Sudan Liberation People’s Movement (SPLM), appreciated the NEC’s ruling, but still contended that “it is not enough.” Yet opposition candidate Abdelaziz Khaled was not as inclined to seek compromise, and instead called upon President al-Bashir to cancel the elections entirely. “There is no way to rescue this process,” he said.
Despite the structural deficiencies, the Carter Center — previously threatened with expulsion before al-Bashir reconsidered and granted its observers permission to stay — reported that turnout on Sunday was relatively high. And although large numbers of police officers were dispatched to polling places throughout the country, Carter Center observers noted that there wasn’t any sort of “intimidating security presence.” Yet others provided an alternative account, saying that the “opposition boycott was very effective” in keeping turnout low.
Save Darfur’s Sean Brooks was among those who predicted an electoral “sham,” writing at The New Republic that the “deeply un-democratic” contest was certain to exclude massive amounts of Sudanese from full participation, particularly those in Darfur. Brooks, who just recently returned from a month-long trip to Sudan, also published a piece with Al Jazeera highlighting the inverse relationship between peace and Sudan’s security state. Unfortunately, he says, international actors missed an opportunity to pressure the regime to scale down its suffocating security presence, and are now focused upon salvaging the elections “without concern for the long-term consequences for human rights and democracy.”
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Elections, Freedom, Human Rights, Political Parties, Sudan | 1 Comment »
Sudan: Election Monitors Granted “Unlimited Access”…But Should They Stay?
April 7th, 2010 by Josh
Stepping back from his earlier threat — perhaps due to recent events that stripped the electoral field of any serious challenger — Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir announced that he would allow the Carter Center and its on-the-ground personnel to freely monitor next week’s elections. “In two days,” Bashir said, “president Carter will arrive and I will receive him and will give him and his center permission to go to any area of Sudan and to monitor any area in Sudan.”
Gregg Carlstrom figures that Bashir has nothing to lose by opening up the country to international observers. “There’s no need for electoral fraud at this point; the election is over, and Bashir has won.” And considering that the pre-election manipulation and gamesmanship has all but guaranteed a landslide victory for Bashir and his National Congress Party, the Sudan Democracy First Group — a coalition of activists, trade unionists, and academics — has called upon the Carter Center to withdraw its monitors to avoid lending “the appearance of legitimacy to what has been proven to be a deeply flawed elections process and the presumed re-election of a man who is internationally wanted for war crimes in a vote that is neither free nor fair.” Well-traveled humanitarian and UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador Mia Farrow agrees, writing in the Wall Street Journal that “[Bashir’s] regime must not be granted the legitimacy he craves.”
The European Union has already announced that it will remove its election monitors from Darfur, citing safety concerns that severely limit the mission’s effectiveness. “We can only have a very partial view, so how can we observe properly in Darfur? The credibility of the mission is at stake,” said Veronique De Keyser, chief of the EU’s election team in Sudan.
But in a somewhat surprising twist, the popular opposition Democratic Unionist Party reversed course and announced that it would in fact participate in the April 11 poll. POMED will continue to keep you updated on the fluid campaign environment.
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Elections, Freedom, Human Rights, Political Parties, Sudan | Comment »
Sudan: Are the Structural Problems with the Vote Insurmountable?
April 6th, 2010 by Josh
Reacting to the political turbulence ahead of next week’s election, J. Peter Pham — senior fellow and director of the Africa Project at the National Committee on American Foreign Policy — calls Sudan’s ambitious electoral framework “sheer folly” and insists that “even under the best of circumstances, the Sudanese elections…would have presented extraordinary challenges, both with respect to logistics and to the complexity of the exercise itself.” Aside from the likely opposition boycott, he cites a myriad of infrastructural, economic, and political deficiencies that may, despite the best efforts of NGOs and foreign governments, preclude a free and fair contest.
But the ruling National Congress Party’s flagrant manipulation of the electoral process does not necessarily reduce the vote to an inconsequential show of kabuki democracy; with the 2011 referendum for southern independence right around the corner, Pham contends that the presumed illegitimacy of next week’s outcome may compel South Sudan to declare independence unilaterally for fear that the government — showing its true colors in disallowing a competitive election — has no intention of fully adhering to the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which mandates the referendum.
Meanwhile, President Omar al-Bashir once again reiterated that the elections must proceed as planned. Moktar Al-Ahsan, a member of Sudan’s National Election Commission, echoed Bashir’s stance and largely dismissed opposition complaints of electoral impropriety. “There is nothing new in what the opposition is saying,” he insisted. “We are bound by the timetable as it is.”
Posted in Elections, Freedom, Political Parties, Sudan | 1 Comment »
Sudan: Opposition Candidate Withdraws From Election
April 1st, 2010 by Josh
Only ten days before Sudan’s first multiparty election in 24 years, Yasir Arman — presidential candidate for the opposition Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) — announced his intention to boycott the April 11 contest over concerns of voter fraud and insecurity in Darfur. This despite President Omar al-Bashir’s threat earlier this week that he would cancel next year’s referendum should the SPLM not participate in the upcoming vote. The sudden pullout prompted U.S. envoy Scott Gratian to engage Sudanese political leaders in crisis talks to prevent the unraveling of Sudan’s ongoing reconciliation process.
However, Reuters’ Andrew Heavens speculates that the withdrawal — which effectively guarantees Bashir an electoral win — could in fact be part of a deal between the SPLM and ruling National Congress Party (NCP). “The presidency in exchange for the referendum,” he says, pointing out that most southerners prioritize independence over a stronger voice within the existing political system. Although this appears to run counter to Bashir’s stated position on the elections, Heavens says that the SPLM intentionally limited its boycott to the Darfur region in order to publicly register its concerns without disrupting the legitimacy of the entire national contest. In effect, this would allow Bashir to maintain his democratic credentials, which Heavens predicts may be enough to keep the referendum on track.
Over at the Arab Reform Bulletin, Philippe de Pontet downplays the importance of the presidential election, saying that for many southerners it is “practically a non-event, seen as merely a formality on the road to the January 2011 referendum on southern independence… simply a box to be checked in the U.S.-brokered Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), the last big-ticket item en route to the referendum.” Pontet goes on to elucidate the many political, social, and economic challenges that would arise in the case of southern independence, and contends that while full autonomy is by no means a foregone conclusion, all parties must begin negotiating the terms of the potential relationship between the two independent governments in order to ensure a smooth transition.
UPDATE: Al Arabiya is now reporting that Sudan’s other major opposition parties have dropped out of the elections as well.
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Elections, Political Parties, Sudan | 2 Comments »
Sudan: Amidst Election Concerns, Bashir Issues New Threat
March 30th, 2010 by Josh
After threatening to kick out international monitors last week, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir warned the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) that he would refuse to allow the January 2011 referendum on southern autonomy if the former rebel group does not take part in the upcoming April elections. The SPLM has publicly expressed concern that the elections will not be free and fair, and other opposition groups have already declared their intention to boycott the vote. But Bashir insisted that “We will not accept a delay to the elections not even for one day,” adding that although there are differences, the elections much happen on time.
Meanwhile, the offshoot Sudan People’s Liberation Movement for Democratic Change (SPLM-DC) accused the semi-autonomous South Sudan government, dominated by the mainstream SPLM, of beating seven opposition members. The SPLM-DC is the only party to field a challenger in next month’s regional presidential election.
Reflecting on her recent trip to Sudan, Refugee International’s Jennifer Smith is disheartened at the lack of diligent international preparation in advance of the forthcoming electoral contest as well as next year’s referendum. She calls upon the “international humanitarian community to engage in a robust contingency planning process involving UN agencies, NGOs, donors and the UN peacekeeping mission UNMIS, in case conflict erupts again on a large scale.” But war is not inevitable, she says, and “the international community must still do all it can to help facilitate agreement between the north and south on key outstanding issues related to the full implementation of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement.”
Posted in Diplomacy, Elections, NGOs, Political Parties, Sudan | 1 Comment »
Sudan: Bashir Threatens to Kick out Monitors
March 24th, 2010 by Josh
As Sudan approaches its first multiparty election since 1986, President Omar al-Bashir warned international election observers to tread lightly after the U.S.-based Carter Center suggested delaying the elections to address the many logistical problems which, if left unfixed, may severely hamper turnout. “We wanted them to see the free and fair elections,” Bashir said, “but if they ask for them to be delayed, we will throw them out.” Opposition presidential candidate Mubarak al-Fadil interpreted the threat as a sign that Bashir is nervous, perhaps indicative of the growing prospects for war should the referendum process not go smoothly.
In order to avoid such a violent disruption of the still-nascent peace process, Dorn Townsend urges NGO workers to step aside and empower local councils and other groups as leading voices to provide a sense of societal balance and peace. Likewise, Sean Brooks of the Save Darfur Coalition contends that the dearth of engaged civil society actors is problematic, serving only to perpetuate an ineffectual international role. “It is tribal and camp leaders, women’s organizations, and Darfuri youth who could help put pressure on both the movements and Sudanese government to commitment to real negotiations,” he says. “Rather than spending such a disproportionate amount of time chasing down rebel leaders and mediating their personal differences, the international community should focus more of their attention on listening to these emerging constituencies for peace within Darfur.”
Posted in Elections, NGOs, Sudan | 2 Comments »
Sudan: Donor Conference Addresses Darfur
March 22nd, 2010 by Josh
Yesterday, international donors gathered in Cairo to raise money for reconstruction efforts in Darfur. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit implored participating countries to donate generously, raising hopes that the one-day summit, organized by the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), would amass upwards of $2 billion for development projects in agriculture, water supply, health, and education.
The conference failed to meet that mark, however, with the 57 OIC members pledging only $850 million in developmental support. Nonetheless, participants still underscored the importance of continuing financial aid, particularly in light of Sudan’s precarious peace process that has ebbed and flowed in recent weeks. Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa stressed that the ongoing process of political reconciliation must be joined by development strategies. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu concurred, insisting that peace “will not only be achieved through political agreements but also through humanitarian and development assistance.”
But Enough Project director John Prendergast views the conference as a serious misallocation of resources for a strategy that may only exacerbate existing problems. “Pouring money into this environment is a recipe for ongoing instability and is no substitute for the more serious political engagement necessary for lasting peace and security rooted in a measure of justice that the Darfur people have clearly been denied,” he says.
Posted in Arab League, Egypt, Human Rights, Sudan | Comment »
The Possibilities — and Perils — of Facebook
March 9th, 2010 by Josh
Just last week, POMED co-sponsored an event to explore the implications of new media technologies for both ground-level reform movements as well as U.S. foreign policy. Featured panelist Jared Cohen insisted that the proliferation of “value-neutral” information and connection technologies (ICT) demands a restructuring of U.S. policy tools to help influence these forces and push back against extremist groups who exploit ICT for nefarious purposes.
Of course, one of the most ubiquitous emerging technologies is Facebook, and Issandr El Amrani has a post up highlighting recent intersections of the popular networking client with Middle Eastern politics. While Facebook has thus far been a boon for Mohamed ElBaradei during his recent political surge, it also led to the arrest of a Moroccan man who purported to be a member of the royal family on his Facebook profile. And although he was recently pardoned for his indiscretion, some believe his experience demonstrates how ICT provides authoritarian governments with yet another tool to monitor and disrupt dissent. El Amrani also draws attention to a slightly more innocuous case of social media savvy in Saudi Arabia, where the Minister of Culture used Facebook as a PR mechanism to deny rumors of banned books at the Riyadh Book Fair.
Despite these concerns, some still champion ICT as an invaluable mobilizing force for oppositionists. Over at Foreign Policy, Mohammad Sadeghi — head administrator of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard’s Supporters’ Network on Facebook — argues that the Green Movement “owes its greatest successes to the horizontal organization and innovative use of technology.” And yesterday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced that it would ease web-related sanctions for Sudan, Iran, and Cuba, perhaps indicating that the Obama administration believes in the democratizing power of ICT as well.
Posted in Egypt, Iran, Morocco, Reform, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Technology, US foreign policy, sanctions | 1 Comment »
Sudan: Fears of Election Fraud
March 4th, 2010 by Josh
As Sudan approaches its first multiparty elections in 24 years, major opposition parties staged a rally earlier today to protest purported bias by the National Elections Commission in favor of President al-Bashir’s ruling party. One of the major presidential challengers, Yasir Arman of the former rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, went even further by accusing the government of conspiracy to rig the vote. While Elections Commission member Mukhtar el Asam flatly denied the claim, that did little to mollify the over 200 activists who demonstrated in front of the commission’s office in Khartoum.
Today also marks the one-year anniversary of the forced shut-down of three Sudanese NGOs and the expulsion of thirteen other international organizations, an action many interpreted as a response to the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for al-Bashir. Amnesty International released a statement calling upon the government to not only reinstate the NGOs, but also to “stop the harassment and intimidation of human rights defenders throughout the country.”
Posted in Elections, Freedom, Human Rights, NGOs, Political Parties, Protests, Sudan | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Promoting Security through Diplomacy and Development: The Fiscal Year 2011 International Affairs”
February 26th, 2010 by Josh
In a hearing on the administration’s recently released budget request, the House Committee on Foreign Affairs invited Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to give testimony on particular budgetary items relating to U.S. diplomatic and development efforts abroad. Committee Chairman Howard Berman (D-CA) opened the hearing with an affirmation of the value of investing in international diplomacy; not only to promote American values, but also as a method of prevention in order to mitigate the forces that cause international instability. Berman pledged to work with his colleagues to maintain or even increase the overall level of funding – approximately 1 percent of the entire Fiscal Year 2011 federal budget request – but ranking Republican committee member Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) disagreed, using the poor economic environment as the basis to call for “selective freezes.” In particular, she questioned the wisdom of unconditionally funding the Palestinian Authority and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), both of which she accuses of stealing hundreds of millions in foreign aid.
Click here for POMED’s notes in PDF, or continue reading below.
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Posted in Afghanistan, Congressional Hearing Notes (House), Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Elections, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Hamas, Hezbollah, Human Rights, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Morocco, Multilateralism, Palestine, Protests, Sudan, Syria, US foreign policy, Western Sahara, Yemen, sanctions | 1 Comment »
Sudan: New Ceasefire Agreement Ahead of April Elections
February 23rd, 2010 by Josh
Earlier today, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir signed a preliminary ceasefire accord with the Justice and Equality Movement, the most potent and heavily-armed rebel group in the Darfur region, renewing hopes of a sustained period of peace in advance of Sudan’s upcoming spring election. Although smaller militias refused to engage the government in peace talks, Bashir hailed the landmark agreement as “the start of the end” of the conflict in Darfur and conveyed his hope for a “comprehensive peace.”
Alsanosi Ahmed of Babylon and Beyond explains that the accord is expected to stop military raids and impose a ceasefire in all three Darfur states. But this doesn’t guarantee a safer environment for the electoral campaign, and Ahmed relays concerns that splinter rebel groups, while small and poorly resourced, could initiate an upswing in violence in an attempt to uproot the fragile arrangement.
Over at Save Darfur, Robert Lawrence tempers his enthusiasm by noting that “it is not enough for the Government of Sudan to negotiate with the rebels alone… Civil society and IDP representatives from Darfur must be brought into the negotiating process.” These groups are severely underrepresented and Lawrence advises both the government and armed rebels to listen to this “emerging constituency for peace” if they want the ceasefire agreement to be anything more than simply ink on paper.
Posted in Elections, Sudan | Comment »
Sudan: Looking at the Upcoming Election Prospects
February 2nd, 2010 by Maria
Former President Jimmy Carter has an opinion piece in the Washington Post today calling for international commitment to help in the upcoming April election in Sudan. The Carter Center is planning to send 60 observers for the election, as well as train 3,000 local observers. However, Carter argues that “additional monitors from Africa and the European Union are urgently needed. Indications are that they would be welcomed by the political factions, hopefully without restrictions.” Carter writes that over the course of the last year, the Carter Center has witnessed “a peaceful and surprisingly successful nationwide voter registration” which he says registered 16 million Sudanese — an estimated 80 percent of eligible voters.
However, The Guardian’s Nesrine Malik is not as optimistic. Malik writes in today’s Comment is Free that the upcoming elections are filled with “the same old politicians” who signify how Sudan “still thrives on cronyism and nepotism.” While Malik admits it is unreasonable to expect an influx of “fresh politicians” to surface into the political scene in Sudan overnight, she argues that “there are high intangible barriers to entry that preclude this from ever becoming a possibility. There is no institutionalized space where this can develop; political office is either a right to be claimed or to be seized by force.”
Posted in Elections, Sudan | Comment »
