Ammar Abdulhamid: Syria is Not Ready for an Uprising

By all accounts, the Facebook-organized "demonstrations" in Syria on February 4 And 5 were characterized by a large security presence and very little visible protest. Veteran Syrian blogger/dissident/democracy activist Ammar Abdulhamid has a piece in The Guardian arguing that, much as he'd love to see one, "Syria is Not Ready for an Uprising." Josh Landis said something similar before the protests. I pretend to no expertise on Syria and last set foot in the country in the 1970s, so I won't second guess the experts. But their cautions are a reminder that each country has a distinct history and personality and that the present crisis may have little impact there.

The Winter 2011 Middle East Journal

Subscribers should already have their hard copy issues, but the online edition of the Middle East Journal is now available. The online access is here. (For subscribers wishing to access the electronic edition, instructions are here. You can find information about subscribing here. Non-subscribers can purchase individual articles for a fee.)

The articles (click through to read the abstract) are:

Tribal Law and Reconciliation in the New Iraq. Katherine Blue Carroll.

Two Articles on alternatives to the two-state solution:

The Interspersed Nation-State System: A Two-State/One-Land Solution for Israel-Palestine. Nathan Witkin.

The One-State Solution: Palestinian Challenges and Prospects. Laila Farsakh.

Zoroastrians in Iran: What Future in the Homeland? Richard Foltz.

Economic and Institutional Reforms in the Arab Gulf Countries. Martin Hvidt.
Book Review Article: Polyvalent Islam in the Public Square. Bruce B. Lawrence; plus the full book review section.
Chronology of the quarter.

Tunisia Suspends, May Dissolve RCD

Tunisia's Interim Government has suspended the former ruling party, the Constitutinal Democratic Rally (RCD), and may dissolve it.

Normally, banning political parties seems a move against democratization. The RCD was no ordinary party, however. Ultimately the creation of Habib Bourguiba, it had undergone several name changes but remained an all-pervasive party with its tendrils reaching into neighborhoods, workplaces, and virtually every aspect of life.

More Good News: Egyptian Protesters Transcend Sectarianism

If you are believing the panicked reports from Israeli and neocon American commentators that the Egyptian revolt is being taken over by Islamists, consider: After the horrific bombing of the Coptic church in Alexandria on New Year's, many Muslim Egyptians turned out on Eastern Christmas (January 7) to form cordons around Coptic churches in many parts of the country. On both Fridays of the present demonstrations, Coptic Egyptians (some in clerical vestments) returned the favor. After the huge Friday prayer in Tahrir Square, the Copts held their Holy Mysteries (Mass) yesterday in the square as well. (Cairo's main "celebrity" ceremonial mosque, ‘Umar Makram, is on the square, but the nearest churches are a couple of blocks away). Again, each faith is helping protect the other.

In my earlier post on the Revolution of 1919, which I still think resembles this one more than anything else in modern Egyptian history, the revolutionaries flew the flag above, with both crescent and cross, which later became an emblem of the Wafd Party. The two communities protecting each other both suggests this is not an Islamic Revolution, and that Egyptians are united. (So far as I have seen, however, Coptic Pope Shenouda has continued to defend the regime.)

Start the Week on a Positive Note: Getting Married in Tahrir Square

Let's open Monday on a positive note.

There's a fad in the West, or at least the US, to get married in unusual venues: skydiving, or in scuba gear underwater, or whatever. Sometime dressed as Civil War reenactors, or your favorite Disney characters, or whatever.

A little more on the risky side: an Egyptian couple choosing to take their vows in Tahrir Square:



The guy with the microphone seems to be in a military or police uniform sweater with rank epaulets on it, but I can't resolve it enough to determine the rank. Via Al-Wafd and YouTube.

To Keep You Through the Weekend

I'm trying hard to take my first weekend with little blogging since Tunisia cranked up.

In the meantime, some essential reading:

Michele Dunne, Too Late for Reform Now

Issandr El Amrani, The NDP Shuffle

Issandr El Amrani, RIP the Old Guard

Hossam Bahgat and Soha Abdelaty, What Mubarak Must Do Before He Resigns

And, of course, as always, Al Jazeera's live feed:

Friday Prayer in Tahrir Square

Friday prayer in Tahrir Square. The clothing suggests just about every social class is mingling together.

"Day of Departure" Sees No Departure

It's hard to know how to read the tea leaves today. There appear to have been large turnouts for the "Day of Departure" demonstrations, and very little violence. That's good, and suggests the Army is
enforcing order but not suppressing popular protests.

There are number of reports suggesting that the US and/or the "wise men" committee representing the opposition are in negotiations with the military and senior leadership; reports that the assets of a number of former officials and businessmen have been frozen continues. It may be that some sort of transition is taking place even if Mubarak is still technically in place; ‘Omar Suleiman seems to be exercising most of the powers of the presidency. Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Sami Enan's name keeps turning up, I notice, suggesting the Army is very much involved in whatever is going on behind closed doors.

Obviously, the "Day of Departure" did not produce a departure. But something seems to be moving, and at least the violence of the past couple of days seems to have been muted. Still, the clampdown on the foreign press has limited reporting.

I'd also note that whst we've been seeing from what TV there still is, is downtown Cairo and the seaside corniche in Alexandria. What's going on in the residential areas, let alone all of Egypt's other cities, is mostly invisible. It's hard to know what's going on in the countryside.

Today

The restrictions on reporters are making it much harder for those of us outside Egypt to craft a clear picture of what's going on. I hope to post more later today.

The Blog: Two Years and Counting

The very first placeholding post on this blog went up on January 27, 2009, so last week was our second blogiversary. I can't imagine why I missed it at the time. Was something going on in the Middle East that distracted me, perhaps?

Hard to Keep the Conspiracy Theories Straight

Both President Mubarak and Vice President Suleiman, talking to ABC News, today, insisted the Muslim Brotherhood is behind the upheaval in Egypt. Meanwhile, as noted in this story in Al-Masry al-Youm, Government sources appear to be behind rumors that the whole thing is an Israeli plot.

Ah, yes, the Israeli-Muslim Brotherhood Axis strikes again!

Israel, of course, seems to be Mubarak's strongest cheerleader right now.

An Etymological Diversion: The Word "Baltagi"

The proper response to yesterday's attack on the demonstrators in Tahrir, and the ongoing clashes which continue, is revulsion, combined with amazement at the bizarre spectacle of men on horseback and (even more bizarre) camelback attacking the protesters. The Mamluk cavalry ride down the Facebook and Twitter revolutionaries.

I've said about all I can say without abandoning civility about what has been going on. And while the heroic demonstrators can expect no diversions or relaxation so long as they are under attack, here in Washington I have the ability to divert my own outrage by thinking about some of the cultural and other aspects of these events.

We have all talked about the "thugs," the attackers either hired by the ruling party or by the security services, who often are used against demonstrators and certainly were yesterday. They often carry sticks to beat people, and also abuse and humiliate women demonstrators in demeaning ways.

The word we are all translating as "thugs" is baltagi (بلطجي ), plural baltagiyya (بلطجية). It has an interesting history, and since I know some of my readers at least like my occasional diversions on the Arabic language, I thought I'd divert my own anger for a bit by talking about this word.

It comes from the word balta, axe, with the Turkish-derived suffix -ji (-ci in modern Turkish orthography, -gi in Egyptian pronunciation). It means literally "man with the axe," and no, you poker players, it doesn't refer to the King of Diamonds. It has meanings relating to woodcutting and such, but also came to be applied to halabardiers, the soldiers carrying the halberd or long axe-like weapon (like the King of Diamonds) in the Ottoman and Mamluk armies. Military terms tend to evolve (not all Grenadier Guards carry grenades), and in modern Arabic military terms it has come to mean a sapper or pioneer, someone going out ahead of the army to prepare the battlefield.

That's the core meaning. Socrates Spiro's 1895 dictionary of colloquial Egyptian Arabic still lists only the military meaning in colloquial as well. But somewhere along the line it acquired a pejorative, colloquial meaning, applied to street thugs, gangsters, pimps, and other such. It has come to be applied to Egypt's National Democratic Party enforcers, and their equivalents in the plainclothes security police.

How this new meaning evolved isn't entirely clear. Some have suggested that some well known street gang might have used the axe as a symbol, but that sounds like an after-the-fact rationalization. I'd be glad to hear any other explanations.

The Egyptian Army's Hamlet Moment

Thus conscience does make cowards of us all,
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprise of great pitch and moment
With this regard their currents turn awry
And lose the name of action . . .

Hamlet, of course.

It goes wholly against my grain to wish for a military coup, anywhere, anytime, for any reason. But I do now believe the future of Egypt and the honor of the Egyptian Army may require them to recall these words:

Egypt has passed through a critical period in her recent history characterized by bribery, mischief, and the absence of governmental stability. All of these were factors that had a large influence on the army. Those who accepted bribes and were thus influenced caused our defeat in the Palestine War. As for the period following the war, the mischief-making elements have been assisting one another, and traitors have been commanding the army. They appointed a commander who is either ignorant or corrupt. Egypt has reached the point, therefore, of having no army to defend it. Accordingly, we have undertaken to clean ourselves up and have appointed to command us men from within the army whom we trust in their ability, their character, and their patriotism. It is certain that all Egypt will meet this news with enthusiasm and will welcome it.

July 23, 1952. The Free Officers' first communique, read by Lieutenant Colonel Anwar Sadat. Many years later, he would name an Air Force hero named Husni Mubarak as his Vice President.

As they say, or at least used to say, in British pubs, "Hurry up, please. It's time."

Mixed Signals: Why Was the Internet Restored?

I'm wondering if the Egyptian government is profoundly divided. On this day when, for the first time since the withdrawal of the police last Friday, open violence was wielded against the demonstrators, the Internet was also restored around 11 am in Cairo. Facebook and Twitter are reportedly unblocked as well. It's possible there are deep divisions over how to proceed, but the attacks on the demonstrators suggest that at least some are determined to crush the movement. But why was the Internet restored?

The Army stood by today. Can it remain neutral much longer?

Salih Won't Run Again EIther

Now it's Yemeni President ‘Ali ‘Abdullah Salih who says he won't run again when his term expires in 2013; nor will he seek to run his son as his successor. He came to power in then-North Yemen in 1978, so he has ruled even longer than Husni Mubarak.

The Desperation of a Collapsing System

The attack, apparently by people hired by prominent NDP businessmen, on the demonstrators in Tahrir today may be the beginning of the end,m the death throes of a desperate regime. It is being widely denounced around the world, and the Army's failure to stop it is eroding the respect the demonstrators have shown for the Army. It is hard to imagine, after this, that Mubarak will finish his term.

The Tears of Isis Created the Nile Flood

Today's violence pretty much ends the hope of a "soft landing." I doubt if it will save the regime at this point. I'm feeling under the weather but will have more later.

Pundit Like it's 1989

There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.

— Brutus in Shakespeare's Julius Caesar, Acr IV, Scene 3

I wanted to reflect for a moment about the dilemma facing all of us Middle East "experts," pundits, and talking heads. I wish I had phone numbers of some of the history grad students I knew who were specialists on Russian and Eastern European history. (We tended to meet in Byzantine Empire history classes. I actually took four semesters of Byzantine history, two taught by Georgian Prince Cyril Toumanoff, about whom I must write someday.) As I try to field questions from the media and formulate my own thinking on what's going on now, I keep realizing that everything I've learned from experience in the past 40 years may no longer be valid. There is a dynamic here that has never existed before. I don't understand the dynamic. Ben Ali and Mubarak clearly don't. Maybe King ‘Abdullah II has a clue, since he's trying to stay in front of the tsunami (or the "Tunisnami" as someone has dubbed it).

Although the Solidarity Movement in Poland had led the way, the collapse of Eastern Europe and, soon after, the Soviet Union itself, stunned observers, the governments themselves, and no doubt the protesters. It was not the state but the Communist Monolith that withered away, or simply evaporated. The fall of the Berlin Wall, some say, was inadvertent. The East German Government issued a contingency statement the Politburo had not authorized. (The most dramatic bureaucratic screwup in history?) Not just a wall but an Iron Curtain fell. And,for the most part, it was bloodless, unless your name was Ceausescu. (Mubarak's "I will die in Egypt": be careful what you wish for.)

1989 was forecast by no one. It was impossible, unprecedented, a psychedelic fantasy. The results were imperfect (Belarus and some of the "stans" and the Caucasus). But all the existing analytic paradigms collapsed overnight. The dynamic was changed. People were empowered.

Pundits at the time raised the question of why it didn't spread to the Arab World.

Tunisia was an outlier, a solid little Arab country but very much its own case. Egypt is the beating heart of Arab nationalism, birthplace of civilization, mother of the world. Tunisia was Poland; if it happens, Egypt is the fall of the Berlin Wall at a minimum. It's the mother lode.

Outside of my post on the 1919 Revolution/uprising, the fall of the Shah of Iran is perhaps the best analog. A man seemingly secure fell quickly, though not so quickly as what is happening now. Obviously whether we decide this is a "Facebook revolution" or something quite different, there are going to be elements of it that are entirely new.

As for exportability, revolutions can occur without communication among revolutionary groups, as the success of one spreads to another country. There is something exhilarating about real revolution (think of Wordsworth's "Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive/But to be young was very heaven"). The American Revolution had a direct and organic effect on France in 1789. The wave of revolutions that swept Europe in 1848 is another example, as is the spread of the Russian Revolution of 1917 to many places, including Germany a bit, in 1918-1919. The domino collapse of Communism is perhaps the most apt, and clearly most recent, example.

What happens next? Don't ask us Middle East experts. We've never seen anything like this. The dynamic is new, and different, and not a reliable guide because we don't understand it yet. Bliss is it in this dawn to be alive.

Egyptian Male Naming Patterns: A Cultural Note

A cultural aside prompted by events in Egypt. When I first lived in Egypt back in the 1970s, in those remote eras before Husni Mubarak was even President yet, I eventually started to wonder why so many men in their 50s seemed to be named Saad, while relatively few of the males my age were. Eventually I asked a couple (a used bookseller and another acquaintance in that age group), and realized they were presumably all, as these two were, named after Saad Zaghloul Pasha. I also noted a lot of younger men and boys born in the 1950s and 1960s, named Gamal. Obviously after Nasser. I suspect this includes the late-40-something former banker who has apparently taken up residence in London this week and whose political prospects are now nil.

A question for more recent Egypt hands: in the last 30 years, when my visits have usually been under a week and have not allowed thorough research on this abstruse onomastic issue, has there been a wave of Husnis born, or, as I suspect, not outside the ruling circles?

I also like an excuse to say "onomastic." Not a word I get to use every day: relating to the study of proper names, to save you the trouble of Googling.

Oh, and for now, I intend to fly the flag in the Egypt posts.

A Bad Omen: Thugs Attack Demonstrators After Speech

Media are reporting that pro-Mubarak thugs (baltagiyya) attacked demonstrators in Alexandria [later: bloggers are saying Cairo and Port Said too] after Mubarak's speech. The Army apparently stepped in and stopped it, but if his Party thugs (or their fellow charmers, the plainclothes security police thugs) are still trying to beat people up, it raises questions about how sincere his commitment to a real transition is. If he really intends to be allowed to finish his term, this really sends the wrong signal. This is the exact sort of tactic that has typified the regime in recent years.

UPDATE: It may be an emerging pattern. Against multiple international demsands, the Internet is still shut down. If Mubarak means to preside over change, it's time to fix it. Though our IT guy said something to me suggesting they kind of broke it when they shut it down, I haven't the tech knowledge to talk about it. But if it's not back up, the regime is strangling the country.