On Thursday afternoon, I'll be chairing a session with former Malaysia Deputy Prime Minister and current Leader of the Opposition in the Malaysian Parliament Anwar Ibrahim, someone I greatly admire for his ongoing temerity in staring down thugs in his own government.

We will be discussing democracy in the Islamic World -- and joining us will also be public opinion experts Shibley Telhami of the University of Maryland and Brookings Saban Center and George Washington University's Nathan Brown.

This should be an interesting session -- in part because I am skeptical that democracy per se is a natural equilibrium point for much of the Islamic world, but I have an open mind and want to hear what Ibrahim, Brown and Telhami have to say.

We'll be running the session live here at The Washington Note on Thursday at 5 pm EST. For those of you who want to attend in DC, there is no charge but you must register here.

-- Steve Clemons

This is a guest note by Harlan Ullman, Chairman of the Killowen Group that advises leaders of government and business and Senior Advisor at Washington, D.C.'s Atlantic Council. (photo courtesy of UPI)

Two ticking packages slipped into the White House. One is the situation in Egypt that, if not handled carefully especially in Cairo as well as in Washington, could be the bomb that explodes the Middle East. The other package is IED-like ----an improvised explosive device lurking in Lahore. If that goes off, the U.S.-Pakistani relationship will be irreversibly damaged.

The massive protests in Egypt have captured world attention. The many tens of thousands of Egyptians gathering in and around Tahrir Square demanding that President Hosni Mubarak must go is indeed a real revolution. But the consequences of these protests both for the here and now and for the long-term cannot even be guessed.

Pakistan is quite opposite from Egypt in that the pending crisis revolves around a single individual, not tens of thousands of Pakistanis. Yet, these consequences could prove as disastrous for the U.S. and Pakistan as would uncontrollable events in Egypt. Thus far, swamped by media fixation on Egypt, the arrest of an American diplomat in Lahore two weeks ago on charges of killing two Pakistanis along with possessing an illegal weapon has not become a cause celebre here yet.

What is happening and could happen in Egypt has predictably provoked incessant commentary and opinion. For the moment, events seem to be unfolding in a positive direction because of discussions on forming a transition government now including members of the opposition and the intention of ending emergency rule. However, fragility reigns. And a single spark could ignite this political bombshell.

The Pakistani IED is different. Two weeks ago, an American named Raymond Davis was arrested in Lahore in the shooting of two Pakistanis. Davis claimed the two attempted to hold him up at gunpoint and that he acted in self-defense. A third Pakistani was also killed when a back up car from the U.S. Consulate reportedly rushed to Davis' aid and hit a civilian motorcyclist.

The U.S., at all levels of government, immediately claimed diplomatic immunity for Mr. Davis, demanding his immediate release and unequivocally supported his claim of self-defense. Then, the problems started and the crisis escalated reflecting the huge divide between the two strategic partners and the vast anti-American hostility sadly shared by a great majority of Pakistanis.

As an accredited diplomat, the Vienna Convention of 1961 guarantees Mr. Davis immunity. From the U.S. and international law perspectives, the case is ironclad and there have been numerous egregious examples where diplomats have been protected by immunity.

Unfortunately, technicalities in procedure and in Pakistani law have kept Davis in custody. It appears that Pakistan did not draft the Vienna Convention into their law. And the U.S. may not have listed Davis as immunized in documentation to the Pakistani foreign ministry.

But the explosive forces in this IED are not these legal technicalities. They are the politics of Pakistan. Punjab is the power base for PML-N, the leading opposition to the ruling PPP with Lahore its headquarters. The police technically come under the province. And both provincial and federal courts are fiercely independent of the federal government.

Pakistanis are enraged over this incident and the killing of a third person with the driver allegedly escaping into the sanctuary of the Consulate. Worse, the widow of one of the victims just committed suicide. Any Pakistani government official who intervenes on behalf of Davis will attract public ire and possible retaliation. The recent assassination of Punjab Governor Salmaan Taseer for taking a strong stand against the blasphemy laws will not be forgotten.

One of many fuses to this IED is the Pakistani media, filled with all sorts of ludicrous conspiracy theories accusing Davis of being everything from James Bond to Machine Gun Kelly. The U.S. has its "birther" stories about President Barack Obama being foreign born. Pakistani media are far more irresponsible. For example, the Jang press has repeatedly reported President Asif Zardari's secret marriage to a Pakistani-American doctor. The story has been denied by the lady who never met the president as well as the grounds for a suit filed against the company by an attorney acting for Mr. Zardari.

The White House is understandably playing hardball over this. The bilateral meeting between Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Pakistan Foreign Minister S.M. Qureshi was cancelled and Zardari's state visit could hang in the balance. The already strained relationship will deteriorate further.

The White House knows that only the Egyptians can defuse their bomb and Pakistanis their IED over the detention of Mr. Davis. In the former, that will take a very long time. A new government and the emergence of new political parties as well as repairing the economy take time. In the latter crisis, Pakistani politics are the inhibitors.

But make no mistake: unless both bombs are defused, the damage will be incalculable.

-- Harlan Ullman

The US position on Egypt continues to evolve, but President Obama is increasingly caught in a vise between advocacy for "regime change" in Egypt and less disruptive "regime adjustment."

Regime adjustment is not what the protests in Egypt have been about. They have been about dislodging Hosni Mubarak and his clan -- who must be among the most privately successful structurally corrupt national managers in the world today.

But thus far the Obama team is beginning to acquiesce to the notion that Mubarak may stay, at least through September, and that "reform" of the government needs the active participation and cooperation of the incumbents.

This is a mistake. Those holding power today -- particularly Omar Suleiman -- will have the ability to legally neutralize reforms if they are the ones driving the political machine.

A short while ago, Vice President Biden issued the read out of his call with Suleiman and noted that he pushed these four points:

· Restraining the Ministry of Interior's conduct by immediately ending the arrests, harassment, beating, and detention of journalists, and political and civil society activists, and by allowing freedom of assembly and expression;

· immediately rescinding the emergency law;

· broadening participation in the national dialogue to include a wide range of opposition members; and

· inviting the opposition as a partner in jointly developing a roadmap and timetable for transition.

The Egyptian government is dragging its feet, and there are still many political detainees imprisoned. The government can't be a fair broker in this exercise. The whole idea that the opposition groups have to negotiate with the government to achieve their aims makes little sense -- because it is this government that the public has been rebelling against.

I don't know where things in Egypt are going. The protests have surged to very large levels today in Tahrir Square -- but it does seem to me that the United States is distancing itself from the people and allying itself with an army-led new regime that is likely to give only crumbs to the opposition.

If this proves unsatisfactory to the public and things explode to more serious levels, America will really have botched its position and global brand, yet again.

-- Steve Clemons

On Thursday afternoon, I'll be chairing a session with former Malaysia Deputy Prime Minister and current Leader of the Opposition in the Malaysian Parliament Anwar Ibrahim, someone I greatly admire for his ongoing temerity in staring down thugs in his own government.

We will be discussing democracy in the Islamic World -- and joining us will also be public opinion experts Shibley Telhami of the University of Maryland and Brookings' Saban Center and George Washington University's Nathan Brown.

This should be an interesting session -- in part because I am skeptical that democracy per se is a natural equilibrium point for much of the Islamic world, but I have an open mind and want to hear what Ibrahim, Brown and Telhami have to say.

We'll be running the session live here at The Washington Note on Thursday at 5 pm EST. For those of you who want to attend in DC, there is no charge but you must register here.

-- Steve Clemons

A USA Today / Gallup poll finds that 72% of Americans favor Congressional action this year to speed up the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. The party breakdown shows 86% of Democrats, 72% of independents and 61% of Republicans all favor Congressional action to speed the withdrawal.

-- Steve Clemons

Word is leaking out everywhere that Representative Jane Harman (D-CA) is resigning her House seat in favor of succeeding Democratic foreign policy icon Lee Hamilton as the next president of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

For Harman personally, this may be great news.

The job running the Wilson Center is one of the premier foreign policy/national security spots in Washington, and I think Jane Harman has a balanced understanding of the realist and idealist forces swirling around many of the key problems facing the US and the international system today.

But I am a bit disheartened on other fronts by her likely departure from Congress.

First of all, Harman -- whose trust in the George W. Bush administration's management of intelligence led her to strongly support the invasion of Iraq -- had become chastened by that experience and spoke out strongly in favor of more Congressional oversight and "certainty" when it came to future deployments of American men and women in combat.

Second, she is one of the few Democrats in Congress who has a deep understanding of the architecture of national security intelligence and knows a lot about the technical dimensions of satellites. I always felt that it was a significant mistake by Nancy Pelosi not to make Jane Harman Chair of the House Intelligence Committee because her knowledge of the beast so far outstripped anyone else's background by far.

Third, Jane Harman who is no softy when it comes to matters of war and peace and is someone many have considered a hawk nonetheless was emerging as a sort of J. William Fulbright-style voice against the deepening commitments of the US in the Afghanistan War. She emerged as one of the Obama administration's more serious critics citing inchoate strategy and the problem of a corrupt-to-the-bones partner in the Karzai administration. Her voice on Afghanistan will be particularly missed.

On the Israel front, Harman who was also one of those Members of Congress close to AIPAC and of course close to Israel's interests was also someone who demonstrated in words and by her example that the US could not afford false choices between our relationship with Israel and our relationship with other governments in the region. Even though Iran has hardly been cooperative, Harman was a leading voice during the latter years of the G.W. Bush administration for at least engaging Iran to see what might be accomplished. She is a realist in her assessments of Middle East politics and turmoil and refuses to yield to oversimplified versions of what is going on there -- whether from Israel-tiliting or Arab-tilting sources. This is the kind of perspective we need more of in Congress.

Lastly, Harman is one who believes that we are operating in a "fog of law" internationally in responding to terrorist challenges coming from non-state actors rather than the "rule of law." She believes that we need to deal with this -- be up front about it -- and renegotiate with the international system new rules for the era we are in today rather than one from the past. I totally agree with her -- and think that Harman's voice in this arena will be missed among the Members of Congress who have much less mature and developed views.

I wish Jane Harman well and congratulate her on her new post at the Wilson Center -- but I think it's also fair to lament some fronts where the nation will be worse off for her departure.

-- Steve Clemons

The statement below was sent to me today. It was released on February 3rd, a few days ago, but is powerful and very much worth reading.

A Statement from the protesters at Cairo's Tahrir Square to the Egyptian people

The President's promises and the bloody events of Wednesday February 2

We the protesters who are currently on sit-in at Tahrir (liberation) Square in Cairo since January 25, 2011 strongly condemn the brutal attack carried out by the governing National Democratic Party's (NDP) mercenaries at our location on Wednesday February 2, under the guise of "rally" in support of President Mubarak.

This attack continues on Thursday February 3. We regret that some young people have joined these thugs and criminals, whom the NDP is accustomed to hire during elections, to march them off after spreading several falsehoods circulated by the regime media about us and our goals. These goals that aim at changing the political system to a one that guarantees freedom, dignity and social justice to all citizens are also the goals of the youth. Therefore we want to clarify the following.

Firstly, we are a group of Muslim and Christian Egyptians; the overwhelming majority of us does not belong to political parties and have no previous political activism. Our movement involves elderly and children, peasants, workers, professionals, students and pensioners. Our movement cannot be classified as "paid for" or "directed by" a limited few because it attracted millions who responded to its emblem of removing the regime. People joined us last Tuesday in Cairo and other governments in a scene that witnessed no one case of violence, property assault or harassment to anyone.

Secondly, our movement is accused of being funded from abroad, supported by the United States, as being instigated by Hamas, as under the leadership of the president of the National Assembly for change (Mohamed El-Baradie) and last but not least, as directed by the Muslim Brotherhood. Many accusations like these prove to be false. Protesters are all Egyptians who have clear and specific national objectives. Protesters have no weapons or foreign equipment as claimed by instigators. The broad positive response by the people to our movement's goals reveals that these are the goals of the Egyptian masses in general, not any internal or external faction or entity.

Thirdly, the regime and its paid media falsely blame us, demonstrators, for the tension and instability in the streets of Egypt in recent days and therefore for damaging our nation's interests and security. Our answer to them is: It is not the peaceful protesters who released the criminal offenders from prison to the unguarded streets to practice looting and plundering. It is not the peaceful protesters who have imposed a curfew starting at 3 o'clock PM. It is not the peaceful protesters who have stopped the work in banks, bakeries and gas stations. When protesters organized its one-million demonstration it came up in the most magnificent and organized form and ended peacefully. It is not the protestors who killed 300 people some with live ammunition, and wounding more than 2,000 people in the last few days.

Fourthly, President Mubarak came out on Tuesday to announce that he will not be nominated in the upcoming presidential election and that he will modify two articles in the Constitution, and engage in dialogue with the opposition. However the State media has attacked us when we refused his "concession" and decided to go on with our movement. Our demand that Mubarak steps down immediately is not a personal matter, but we have clear reasons for it which include:

* His promise of not to run again is not new. He has promised when he came to power in 1981 that he will not run for more than two periods but he continued for more than 30 years.

* His speech did not put any collateral for not nominating his son "Gamal", who remains until the moment a member of the ruling party, and can stand for election that will not be under judicial supervision since he ignored any referring to the amendment of article 88 of the Constitution.

* He also considered our movement a "plot directed by a force" that works against the interests of the nation as if responding to the demands of the public is a "shame" or "humiliation".

* As regards to his promise of conducting a dialogue with the opposition, we know how many times over the past years the regime claimed this and ended up with enforcing the narrow interests of the Mubarak State and the few people who control it.

And the events of Wednesday proved our stand is vindicated. While the President was giving his promises, the leaders of his regime were organizing (along with paid thugs and wanted criminals equipped with swords, knives and Molotov bombs) a brutal attack plot against us in Tahrir Square. Those thugs and criminals were accompanied by the NDP members who fired machine guns on unarmed protesters who were trapped on the square ground, killing at least 7 and wounding hundreds of us critically. This was done in order to end our peaceful national popular movement and preserve the status quo.

Our movement is Egyptian - Our movement is legitimate- Our movement is continuing

-- The youth of Tahrir Square sit-in, February 3, 2011 at 11:30 am

Yesterday had a very good chat with CBS News' Bob Orr in a program that also featured the Washington Post's David Ignatius.

The segment also includes reports from Tahrir Square in Cairo from CBS News' Elizabeth Palmer and Vicki Barker.

During my discussion with Orr, we got into questions about where the Egyptian "establishment" may be tilting -- and what would be needed to move to real political reform.

We also discussed the Muslim Brotherhood and the importance of making the responsible members of this well-networked, organized group part of the next political order.

It is interesting and important today that the growing questions about and doubt created by Gamal Mubarak's previous refusal to resign his position as Deputy Secretary General and Head of the Policy Committee of the ruling National Democratic Party may be dissolving now. Gamal Mubarak and other leaders have today resigned these posts. This had been one of the key issues I had been trying to raise in recent days.

It is extremely important for the Egyptian establishment to see that the Mubarak franchise may in fact really be going out of business -- or at least is being politically neutered -- which has not been the case through this tumult until perhaps today.

-- Steve Clemons

PBS News Hour had me in evening before last along with Georgetown University's Samer Shehata and the Council on Foreign Relations' Steven Cook who was in Tahrir Square during the early part of the protests. Judy Woodruff anchored the discussion for which there is a transcript here.

One of the really interesting points of discussion were my and Samer Shehata's views -- as well as Steven Cook's -- of where the traditional Egyptian "establishment" was in these protests.

Two days ago when this show was recorded, I believed -- and still do to some degree -- that the "establishment" in Egypt thinks it will outlast the protesters and eventually have the opportunity to use legalistic methods to slowly strangle reform.

Shehata made an impassioned case that such an approach would not be wise for the establishment -- but then Cook argued, as I did, that the elites in Egypt are really much more on the same page with each other and sending consistent, coordinated messages than the media tends to recognize. Given the announcement today that Gamal Mubarak, the heir apparent until recently to the Hosni Mubarak political franchise, has resigned his posts in the National Democratic Party, perhaps the more wealthy stakeholders in Egyptian society will begin to take reform more seriously as they see less chance of the Mubarak operation really holding on.

More soon.

-- Steve Clemons

On Thursday afternoon, I participated in a very good discussion -- though my comments are near the end of the hour -- with To the Point's Warren Olney about the continuing drama in Egypt and how the White House policy response has evolved.

Olney brought a great group on to discuss issues, including Michael Peel, Middle East Correspondent, Financial Times; Jehan Reda; Professor of Islamic Art and Architecture, American University in Cairo; Tarek, Resident of Cairo; Mohammed el-Nawawy, Professor of Communication at Queens University, Tarek Masoud: Professor of Public Policy, Harvard University; and Steve Clemons, Founder and Sr Fellow/American Strategy Program, New America Foundation and publisher, The Washington Note.

-- Steve Clemons

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Chuck Todd & Savannah Guthrie had Washington Post White House correspondent Anne Kornblut and me on The Daily Rundown yesterday -- and I thought we had a good chat about the trends in US policy posture on Egypt.

Anne Kornblut, who wrote a best-selling book about what it would take for a woman to break the glass ceiling and capture the presidency, asked me as we were leaving if I was breaking the glass ceiling of a man becoming White House social secretary. I certainly won't be the dude who controls the party lists and keeps the Salahis at bay -- but rumor is that there are two finalists for the post: a man and a woman.

-- Steve Clemons

I really enjoyed my recent visit to speak with members of the Colorado Springs World Affairs Council. The group there was first rate -- and was extremely impressed with the many students I met both from the US Air Force Academy as well as a very informed group of high school students in addition to other members of the community.

A video of my talk is linked here and can be watched online for those interested. As my friend Jeffrey Gedmin likes to say, "I sometimes overstate things for 'effect.'" [Here is summary of my remarks drafted by Whitney Galbraith.]

Former US Ambassador to Iraq Christopher Hill who used to find Iranian made incendiary device debris in his Ambassdor's residence yard in Baghdad and who was also one of Richard Holbrooke's star proteges will be speaking for the Colorado Springs group on February 8th. (Chris -- I gave them some tough questions for you...)

For those in Northern Oklahoma area, I will be speaking to the members of the Tulsa Committee on Foreign Relations on the evening of 17 February should you be in the neighborhood. You would have to contact that organization about getting a ticket to the dinner.

Thanks again to the folks in Colorado Springs and particularly to Schuyler "Sky" Foerster who is the Brent Scowcroft Professor of National Security Studies at the US Air Force Academy and to World Affairs Council President Larry Barrett.

-- Steve Clemons

Steve Clemons will be on the PBS NewsHour tonight at 6 pm, discussing the ongoing protests and increasingly violent repression in Egypt, as well as discussing the policy implications for the United States of the deteriorating situation.

-- Andrew Lebovich

In the Washington Post this morning, George Soros describes very well America's equities in Egypt's current political struggle. America is not all powerful and does not have a magic wand to turn totalitarian regimes into well-functioning democracies, but there are times when the balance in America's strategic relationships must shift toward the vital importance of popular self-determination and will.

Soros opens:

Revolutions usually start with enthusiasm and end in tears. In the case of the Middle East, the tears could be avoided if President Obama stands firmly by the values that got him elected. Although American power and influence in the world have declined, our allies and their armies look to us for direction. These armies are strong enough to maintain law and order as long as they stay out of politics; thus the revolutions can remain peaceful. That is what the United States should insist on while encouraging corrupt and repressive rulers who are no longer tolerated by their people to step aside and allow new leaders to be elected in free and fair elections.

Soros also gets into the issue of Israel in his piece -- calling it a "stumbling block" to getting things right. One of the dirty truths of America's strategic relationship is that despite oil and energy interests, and of course the Suez Canal, the aid that the US has given Egypt and the large many decades of support to Mubarak are part of the package of what the US has carved off for Israel. America helped keep Mubarak stable because he was a vital anchor and partner with Israel in the Arab world. The problem is that ultimately peace deals must be done with people, not autocrats.

The one thing George Soros does not mention in his article is that lurking in Egypt's police and intelligence files are mountains of materials on significant human rights abuses -- disappearances, political detentions, torture, and summary executions. In some of these cases, the United States government knew what was going on or had agents in the room. This will come out, and America's historical complicity in Egypt's nightmares will become clear.

What the US government does at this historic inflection point in Egypt's evolution may be the only thing that helps in part redeem for some of the atrocities Washington participated in years ago.

-- Steve Clemons

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Tonight, I discussed the ongoing drama in Egypt with Rachel Maddow in the clip above.

One of the issues I raised was my sense that many American analysts and the media have too easily discounted the corrosive role that Gamal Mubarak, seen by many as heir to the Hosni Mubarak franchise, is playing in the current political standoff and growing street clashes.

I mentioned Gamal's key role as Deputy Secretary General and Chief of Policy in the National Democratic Party (NDP), from which he refuses to step down, in a piece earlier today posted at The Palestine Note.

I also believe that the NDP-commissioned thugs fighting the anti-Mubarak protesters are a clear violation of the "understanding" that Obama and Hosni Mubarak had.

More soon.

-- Steve Clemons

Steve Clemons will be on Rachel Maddow's show tonight, talking about the wave of protests and current situation in Egypt and the Middle East.

-- Andrew Lebovich

This is a quite dramatic shot via Wired of North America being painted white that a TWN reader forwarded my way. Behind the beauty is a lot of freezing, hardship, and drama.

-- Steve Clemons

Ed. Note: hat tip to Tahoe Editor

More here.

Things are getting tense. There is a world of difference between how things tilted when Marcos when departed the Philippines and other models as in Tiananmen, China or Iran when the government crushed the people's call for justice and a new order.

I am in touch with well-connected Arab-Americans who have been in Egypt, close to power, but who know that Mubarak can't be part of Egypt's next steps.

Am trying to report and share my views as I can. More soon.

-- Steve Clemons

(photo credit: Muhammad Ghafari, Flickr)

This piece was just published at The Palestine Note:

Steve Clemons calls on Gamal to make his intentions clear

Political power works like the stock market; influence is a function of future expectations. Hosni Mubarak's days and tenure are numbered. There is no formula for an orderly transition to a new political regime in Egypt that can include him.

However, his son Gamal Mubarak -- Deputy Secretary General of the National Democratic Party and head of the NDP Policy Committee as well as heir apparent until ten days ago to Hosni Mubarak -- is out of the news, but still a vital figure in Egypt's current drama.

Gamal Mubarak has not spoken, has refused to resign his position in the NDP -- and is someone that many fear continues to wait in the wings until the current storm of protests subside. The younger Mubarak is viewed by most observers to be the mastermind who succeeded too well in a highly fraudulent December 2010 parliamentary election securing for the NDP 209 out of 221 seats in the country.

Much of the protests in Tahrir Square and throughout Egypt are about putting the Mubarak franchise out of business -- and unless Gamal Mubarak removes himself from succession then the political marketplace of emotion, fear, and hope in Egypt will continue towards anarchy.

Gamal Mubarak needs to make clear his intentions -- and the media and political class should call on him to do so.

-- Steve Clemons

Above is a fascinating and important interview conducted by New America Foundation President Steve Coll and the co-director of New America's Middle East Task Force Amjad Atallah with Mustafa El-Gindy, a member of the Egypt's opposition Wafd Party.

-- Andrew Lebovich

Jonathan Guyer is a program associate at the New America Foundation/Middle East Task Force and the official cartoonist of The Washington Note. He blogs at Mideast by Midwest.

-- Jonathan Guyer