Is Caution the Right U.S. Strategy?

The New York Times asked various experts what the risks of Obama Administrations’s cautious “go-slower in Egypt” approach and support for Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman and what policy approach the administration should take. Michael Rubin, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, states that the situation in Egypt is not analogous to the Iranian Revolution and that “so long as Mubarak remains in power, the most radical elements will use his presence as irritant against which to rally.” David Makovsky, Ziegler Distinguished Fellow and director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy project on the Middle East Peace Process, counters by citing examples from Lebanon and Iran. Those who argue that the Muslim Brotherhood lacks mass support miss a crucial point, Makovsky says, “The Islamists have demonstrated that they are potent not because they are a majority, but because they are a determined and disciplined minority.”

Marwan Muasher, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former Jordanian foreign minister, calls on the administration to be cautious in their support for Suleiman’s reforms as “it looks like the regime is trying to do just enough to buy more time” by failing to take “the steps necessary to fundamentally alter the structure of the political system.” Clark Lomabardi, associate professor of law at the University of Washington, states that the U.S. is “right to favor a negotiated ‘legal’ transition, but must use all its leverage to ensure that the regime does not abuse the inordinate power granted under the current constitution.” Shadi Hamid, POMED board member and director of research at the Brookings Doha Center, argues that there is a gap between U.S. priorities for an orderly transition and the protesters’ priority to remove Mubarak from office.  Lydia Khalil, POMED board member and non-resident fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, argues that the United States’ Middle East policy has a short-term focus and that by fixating on Mubarak’s departure, the administration is failing to address “the fundamental concerns of the Egyptian opposition and risks alienating its future partners.” The administration, she says, needs to concentrate on the demands of the people, bolster secular opposition, and assist in initiating institutional and constitutional reform.