Egypt's Mubarak refuses to quit

Egypt has been engulfed in protests since 25 January. The demonstrators' central demand been the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak. Here is a guide to what is happening and why it matters for the rest of the world.

How did it all start?

Egypt has long been known as a centre of stability in a volatile region, but that masked malignant problems which erupted in popular demonstrations against the 30-year rule of Hosni Mubarak.

His National Democratic Party has monopolised power through a mixture of constitutional manipulation, repression and rigged elections, cronyism and the backing of powerful foreign allies.

The main drivers of unrest have been poverty, rising food prices, social exclusion, anger over corruption and a demographic bulge of young people unable to find work.

The catalyst was fellow Arabs in Tunisia successfully overthrowing their entrenched autocrat Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali with a popular uprising on 14 January.

Popular anger was fuelled by dozens of deaths at the hands of the security forces, while protesters' voices have been heard thanks to social media and the presence of independent news broadcasters at the scene.

Their rallying cries were "The people want the fall of the regime", "Mubarak, go", and "Illegitimate, illegitimate".

Why does it matter?

Egypt is by far the most populous Arab country and what happens in its government corridors and teeming cities carries great political weight around the world and especially the Arab world.

Cairo's relationship with Washington is underpinned by a peace treaty with Israel, agreed in the late-1970s after four Arab-Israeli wars in which Egypt was standard-bearer of the Arab cause.

Hosni Mubarak's autocracy, and billions of dollars of US military aid, permitted him a free hand to engage with Israeli governments, unhindered by deep public concern about Israel's military and political handling of the Palestinians and Lebanon.

The realities of democratic politics could bring about a recasting of those relationships; hence the apprehensiveness of Israelis and Americans as they follow events.

There are also major economic implications, as Egyptian industry and the valuable tourism sector have been paralysed by the political unrest. Oil prices have risen amid fears of unrest affecting traffic through the Suez Canal and, in the long term, of a wider regional crisis.

Who are the anti-government protesters?

The protests have included people from all sectors of society, but at the forefront have been young, tech-savvy Egyptians who have never known another ruler of their country.

There is no single figurehead or unified leadership, although a number of opposition political figures and groupings are taking part.

They include the UN former nuclear agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei and lawyer Ayman Nour who was jailed after contesting the 2005 presidential election.

The Muslim Brotherhood, officially banned, but still Egypt's only large-scale organised opposition movement, has also joined the protests.

Although the Muslim Brotherhood is signed up to democratic reform and has renounced violence, fears of a swift post-Mubarak lurch towards Islamist rule is the main worry for Western powers and Israel.

What has been the government response?

Hosni Mubarak has made many concessions to try to appease public and international opinion, but he has resolutely resisted calls to step down.

First he dismissed the government, but new appointments included no one from outside his narrow clique of NDP-supporting former military men.

He also appointed a vice-president for the first time, choosing military intelligence strongman Omar Suleiman, Egypt's main conduit for negotiations with Israel and mediation between Palestinian factions.

Later, President Mubarak said he would not stand for re-election for a sixth term in September and pledged dialogue with opposition parties. He also made it clear his younger son, Gamal, once thought to have been being groomed to succeed his father, would not stand either.

Another precedent was set when the Muslim Brotherhood joined five other opposition groups, including business leaders and a coalition of youth organisations, in talks hosted by the new vice-president.

The talks were inconclusive. The government continues to insist that street protests must end and life return to normal, while the protesters believe that pressure must be kept up to ensure any reforms are not purely cosmetic.

On 10 February, in his third national address, he again refused to stand down but transferred some powers to the vice president.

What caused the violence?

Countrywide protests after Friday prayers on 28 January were met with typically repressive measures by the security police, but the determination and sheer numbers of protesters proved overwhelming.

Security police melted away, and heavy military armour appeared on the streets, but their commanders assured protesters they would not use force.

There followed several days of carnival-like protests centred on Cairo's Tahrir (Liberation) Square, effectively celebrations of the new-found freedom and mutual respect among protesters.

It culminated in the so-called "march of the million" on 1 February.

However, a more sinister atmosphere was emerging, as state media reported a wave of looting in Cairo, causing many people to set up armed neighbourhood watch groups to protect their homes.

Government loyalists also voiced frustration, especially with the media for giving too much prominence to the protests.

On 2 February, pro-Mubarak marchers tried to gain access to Tahrir Square and what had been a peaceful scene deteriorated into vicious stone- and petrol-bomb-throwing street battles.

Barricades were erected by the anti-Mubarak side and they appear ready to dig in for a long occupation of the square until the president resigns.

Is this the long-awaited "Arab Spring"?

The consequences of Egypt's unrest could be great for other Arab countries and rulers. Democracy is a rare commodity in the region and several other governments could be sitting on similar political volcanoes.

What surprised many Egypt-watchers was the vehemence and cohesiveness of the first day of protests, which seemed to change the entire political landscape within a few hours.

Protests were seen in the second city, Alexandria, as well as in many large conurbations in the Nile Delta, Suez and Ismailia. It is testimony to the resilience and tenacity of Mr Mubarak's rule that he has not been swept away like Mr Ben Ali.

Mr Mubarak's most important Western ally, the US, has been caught in a serious bind. Should it live up to its professed desires for democracy or support the Egyptian president for fear of loss of influence and what might follow his overthrow?

Other Arab autocrats have offered Mr Mubarak support, but some are now facing mass protests of their own.

International demands that the authorities do not crush the protests with violence appear to have been heeded, but otherwise Egypt's powerful allies have been able to exert little influence with their calls for an "early, orderly transition".

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