'Run, Jeff, Run'

By STEPHEN MOORE

The decision by Sen. Jon Kyl (R., Ariz.) not to seek re-election in 2012 has caused a flurry of interest in a possible run by Rep. Jeff Flake for the seat. Mr. Flake, whose district covers suburban Phoenix, has a reputation as a super-hawk on spending and led the fight against earmarks in the House. He has a near-perfect record on fiscal issues with the National Taxpayers Union.

Mr. Kyl's announcement came as a bit of a surprise, particularly because he is the Senate minority whip and second in line behind Mitch McConnell of Kentucky to be majority leader if Republicans take control of the Senate after the 2012 elections. Mr. Flake has not made an official announcement, but a long-time aide and friend of the congressman tells us that "Jeff is definitely going to run."

If so, it could be a crowded GOP field. One possible conservative challenger is John Shadegg, who recently retired from the House but also has a stellar NTU record. Former congressman J.D. Hayworth, best known for his hard-line stance on illegal immigration, may also throw his hat in. Mr. Hayworth lost a primary race against Sen. John McCain last year. Trent Franks, another conservative House member, could run as well. But out of the gate, Mr. Flake would have to be regarded as the heavy favorite.

One vulnerability could be Mr. Flake's pro-immigration stance, which has caused him problems with some conservatives in the state. Still, he's likely to have the backing of Mr. McCain. The senator remains popular back home and was supported by Mr. Flake during his re-election bid last year.

One of the first calls Mr. Flake probably will make is to South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, who has become a kingmaker of sorts with his conservative PAC, which helped Marco Rubio, Pat Toomey and other conservatives who won in 2010. But he won't have to call the Club for Growth for support. The group's president, Chris Chocola has already endorsed Mr. Flake, and it's website says, "Run, Jeff, run."

Even if Mr. Flake were to win the primary, he may not have an easy time of it in the general election. Democrats could recruit Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, a former governor of Arizona, to leave the Obama administration and run for the seat. But if she declines, the Democratic bench is pretty thin in this red state.

Mr. Kyl will be hard to replace; he has been a stellar voice for free markets in the Senate. But conservatives say that Mr. Flake is one of the few who could fill his shoes.

To read more stories like this one, please subscribe to Political Diary.