'The King's Speech,' 'The Fighter' and 'Winter's Bone'

Colin Firth, left, in "The King's Speech, Christian Bale and Mark Wahlberg in "The Fighter" and Jennifer Lawrence in "Winter's Bone." (From left, Laurie Sparham, the Weinstein Co.; JoJo Whilden, Paramount; Sebastian Mlynarski, Roadside Attractions)

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Conventional wisdom says the races in the top Oscar categories are all but locked. Colin Firth and Natalie Portman will win the leads, Christian Bale and Melissa Leo provide the support and "The King's Speech" cleans up for picture and director.

But judging from how the three academy members we polled — a writer, an actor and a director, all men — marked their ballots, upsets could still occur. Which is why, of course, we tune in on Oscar night. Because in that moment between the opening of the envelope and the winner being announced, anything remains possible.

THE ACTOR


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BEST PICTURE

"The King's Speech"

It's getting knocked, unfairly, I think, as being conventional. And when you look closely at it, there's all sorts of bold, interesting choices being made. It's a beautifully crafted film.

DIRECTOR

David Fincher, "The Social Network"

It isn't the most natural subject for a movie, is it? But he propels it forward with a momentum and a rigor that makes the time fly. It's different from his other movies, more disciplined, but just as interesting.

ACTOR

Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"

I voted for him last year too. But this isn't a make-right vote. He's fantastic.

ACTRESS

Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"

The way she uses silence always strikes me as brilliant. I'll never listen to Joni Mitchell again without thinking of her.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale, "The Fighter"

You knew he had just immersed himself into this man's life. Then, of course, you see the closing credits and it's no surprise how closely they match.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS