A democratic transition in Tunisia would be an epochal development that could influence neighboring states, writes Max Boot of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations.
Some observers are even suggesting that a democratic tsunami could wash away the region’s aging autocrats.
But could the Jasmine Revolution have the opposite effect?
Twenty-four hours before his ouster, Ben Ali apologized for his government’s conduct, promised that security forces would not fire on protesters, and undertook not to stand for election in 2014.
But his concessions only galvanized the opposition.
“You could see he was off-balance in his speech,” a young Tunisian observed at the time. “He’s afraid.”
His public mea culpa signaled that he would “follow the Iran of 1979 rather than that of 2009,” notes one observer. “He was prepared to use force, but not overwhelming force.”
We know that the authoritarians in Russia, Iran and China have carefully studied the color revolutions and adjusted their repressive strategies accordingly.
So it’s only to be expected that the Arab world’s aging autocrats and draw the conclusion that it is not enough to be repressive: they must be ruthless.
Or is the Tiananmen option really no longer feasible?
