From the Lede – New York Times Blog

According to the blog Syria News Wire, a demonstration in Damascus, the Syrian capital, on Thursday, caught on video posted on YouTube, was not part of a wave of antigovernment unrest sweeping the Arab world.

The blog, which is written from Damascus and London, explains the video this way:

An unprecedented scene in Syria this morning as an estimated 1500 people took to the streets in a spontaneous protest.

They were angry that the son of a shop owner had been allegedly beaten by a traffic police officer. So they went on to the streets at Hariqa, just south of Souq Al-Hamidiyah in Damascus. From the video, it seems as if the protest spread down to the western end of Medhat Pasha.

They chant “the Syrian people will not be humiliated”, interspersed with, “shame, shame” and “with our soul, with our blood, we sacrifice for you Bashar”. That’s a very Syrian way of saying they were furious at the police, not the president. Also, note there was no chanting of “the people want the fall of the regime” (the words used in Tunisia and Egypt, and now in Yemen and Bahrain).

At the start of the video, almost every person in is holding up a mobile phone. With mobile phone video cameras plus Twitter and blogs to distribute the footage, public servants face a degree of accountability that they have never faced before.

In a surreal moment, the Minister of the Interior arrives and asks the crowd why they are demonstrating. He has now promised an investigation.

Another Syrian blogger, a student in Aleppo who writes on Twitter as Seleucid, called the video of the protest “proof that the Syrians can do it as much as anybody, they just don’t want to.”

This video and commentary from the Syrian blogosphere comes just three days after a teenage blogger, brought into court chained and blindfolded, was sentenced to five years in jail by a court in Syria. As Reuters reported, the blogger, “Tal al-Molouhi, a high school student who has been under arrest since 2009 and is now 19, had written articles saying she yearned for a role in shaping the future of Syria and supporting the Palestinian cause. Lawyers said the judge gave no evidence or details as to why she had been charged.”

Letter From Herzliya, Neocon Woodstock
Matthew Duss
February 14, 2011

…As a result of the revolution in Egypt, a key theme that emerged at the conference was hostility to Arab democracy and the assumption that it would bring only chaos and danger for Israel—a mantra that also exposed a division between Israeli neoconservatives and some of their American comrades. “In the Arab world, there is no room for democracy,” Israeli Major General Amos Gilead told a nodding audience. “This is the truth. We prefer stability.” Former Israeli Ambassador to the US Zalman Shoval scoffed that George W. Bush’s freedom agenda’s “principle accomplishment seems to be the victory of Hamas in Gaza.” Boaz Ganor, the executive director of the IDC’s International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, warned, “When these people [Arabs] vote, they are voting for what Coca-Cola calls the real thing and that is fundamentalism.” Shmuel Bar, Director of Studies at the IDC’s Institute of Policy and Strategy, declared that the US had “become an agent of revolutionary change in the Middle East, at the expense of stability.”

In opening remarks to a late-addition panel on “Stability vs. Democracy,” progressive analyst Brian Katulis—one of a handful of non-conservatives invited to participate in the conference—declared the panel’s title false choice. Calling America’s “continuing addiction to dictators” part of “a cold war hangover,” Katulis stressed the regional trends driving events in Egypt—massive unemployment, millions of disillusioned youth—and suggested that Israel and the United States would be wise to anticipate them. “There’s a delusion that we can prevent these trends,” said Katulis. “And we’ll probably hear some of these delusions on this panel.”

As if to immediately make Katulis’s point for him, Martin Kramer of Israel’s conservative Shalem Center began by mocking the Obama administration’s repeated assertions that the regional “status quo is unsustainable,” suggesting that it should be taken as the administration’s motto. “In Israel, we are for the status quo,” Kramer said. “Not only do we believe the status quo is sustainable, we think it’s the job of the US to sustain it.”

Responding to Kramer’s remark afterward, Israeli analyst Meir Javedanfar said, “The first stage after a divorce or death is denial. This is followed by anger, then bargaining, depression and acceptance.” Kramer “is still in the denial stage. His statement shows that he still has not realized that the relationship with Egypt is over.”

But however much in denial, Kramer’s and Bar’s comments get at something real among conservative Israeli foreign policy elite: a sense that America, under both Bush and Obama, has failed to apply its power correctly in the region. This inability to achieve certain goals has consequently led to a perception of American decline (never mind that the refusal of allies like Netanyahu to honor American requests contributes to that perception). Many also voiced concerns that Obama’s treatment of Mubarak would cause other US client states to question America’s commitments.

“Obama is perceived, in a moment of truth, to have abandoned an ally,” said Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog, now a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute. “It’s unfair, but that’s the perception.” Herzog also doesn’t characterize Israeli views on democracy as harshly as some others. “Many, if not most, Israelis would lean at this point towards stability” rather than democracy, Herzog said, “not because they don’t want to see democracy around them—they do—but because they are highly skeptical whether the upheaval in Egypt will lead to real democracy in the foreseeable future.” And many Israelis are deeply concerned over potential negative developments in the meantime….

MONTAGNARD writes

Here is Noble Energy’s presentation to analysts and investors showing estimated reserves in the Cyprus A, Leviathan, Tamar and Dalit fields off of Israel and Lebanon, as projected by 3D seismic studies.

The area with good prospects (yellow) would fall on both sides of a line stretching west from Ras Naqura, which should be the line marking the territorial waters of Lebanon and Palestine (Israel). Noble has only drilled Tamar and Dalit (red).

Other studies have projected more hydrocarbon reserves on the north side of the line than to the south. Noble can drill directional and horizontal wells and tap the northern resources and claim that it is from the Tamar and Dalit wells.

You can read it here:

Latest Economic Headlines from Syria Report

Syrian American bilateral trade rose more than 50 percent in 2010 on the back of an increase in the global prices of food commodities and oil products.

Economy: CPI Rises 6.3 Percent in Syria as Food Prices Post 2-Digit Increase

Syria’s government bonds: Captive Markets
Feb 17th 2011 | DAMASCUS | from PRINT EDITION

TRYING to flog sovereign debt three days after the fall of a neighbouring president appears audacious. But the Syrian government’s offering of three billion Syrian pounds ($63.9m) of six-month bills and three-year bonds on February 14th—following a trial run in December, the first in decades—was less risky than it looked. Nine banks bought, and the auction was oversubscribed.

The sale reflects the relative stability of Syria’s government. But it has more to do with the scarce choices available to domestic banks, the only permitted bidders. Fourteen private banks, all of which are subsidiaries of Arab banks, have opened since Syria’s centrally planned economy started to creak open in 2000. But they suffer from limited currency convertibility and a lack of investment opportunities. Undeveloped credit scoring and a lack of transparency hamper their ability to issue retail loans. Surplus liquidity currently sits interest-free in Syria’s central bank.

That gives the government plenty of scope to drive down its borrowing costs. Private banks groan about yields below the rate of inflation: the six-month bills yielded 1% and the three-year bonds just over 2.7%. “The government is in effect asking private banks to lend it money at a subsidised rate,” moans one banker. “But we have no other option.”

More sales will follow: this year’s projected bond issuance is 30 billion Syrian pounds. Syria’s government has long been urged by the IMF to issue bonds to finance its budget deficit—funded until now by internal borrowing. The deficit is modest, predicted at 5.8% of GDP this year, thanks to a rise in the price of oil. But Syria’s oil reserves are diminishing, and plans to do away with subsidies may be diluted as the government keeps a wary eye on regional unrest. The country is also looking to invest billions of dollars in infrastructure projects.

What the government does not want, however, is to rely on foreign creditors for its borrowing. Syria is not planning to issue international bonds. A preoccupation with sovereignty and problems with transparency contribute to that, says Abdulkader Husrieh, a local financial analyst. And complain though they might, domestic banks can be counted upon to lap up the debt.

Syrian Wheat, Barley Production Drops on Crop Disease, Weather
By Lina Ibrahim and Nayla Razzouk – Feb 16, 2011

Syrian wheat, barley and cotton production fell in 2010 because of a crop disease and adverse weather, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.

Wheat output dropped 17 percent from the prior year to 3.08 million metric tons as the fungal disease known as yellow rust hit the crop, the ministry said in a statement. The government had estimated production at 4.5 million tons, it said.

The ministry asked farmers to plant wheat instead of more typical winter crops such as barley as a result of a drought affecting domestic production of the staple grain, Al-Baath newspaper reported last month.

Barley production declined 20 percent to 680,000 tons, the ministry said. Adverse weather meant that output amounted to 43 percent of the government’s 1.6 million-ton goal, it said.

Cotton production slid 28 percent to 472,500 tons, the ministry said, compared with the government’s 681,000-ton estimate.

DAMASCUS, Feb. 12, 2011 — Iraqi President Jalal Talabani said here on Saturday that his country is keen on building a strategic relationship with Syria, Syrian official SANA news agency reported.

The president also stressed Iraq’s readiness to develop ties with Syria at all levels, when meeting with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad on bilateral ties.

Meanwhile, the two leaders also talked about speeding up the implementation of the agreements signed during Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s visit to Syria in October, 2010, and the recent visit of Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Naji Otri to Iraq In January, the report said.

Syria and Iraq resumed diplomatic relations in November, 2006 after 26 years of rupture.

Bilateral Trade Reaches USD 2.5 Billion as Turkish Interest in Syrian Market Expands
Bilateral trade between Syria and Turkey expanded 43 percent last year to reach a total of USD 2.5 billion, as Turkey’s presence across various sectors of the Syrian economy is increasing at a fast pace.

Strait Tms [Reg]: Help us build up infrastructure, Syria tells Malaysia
2011-02-14 By Rupa Damodaran

SYRIA, which has embarked on a comprehensive reform programme that offers the private sector a bigger role, wants Malaysian businesses to be a major player in its infrastructure development.

Deputy Prime Minister of Syria Abdullah Al-Dardari, who is in Kuala Lumpur, said the country’s public private partnership (PPP) also provides opportunities in transportation.

Speaking at a dialogue meeting with Malaysian businesses yesterday, Abdullah said Syria is eyeing investments totalling US$100 billion (RM304 billion) between 2011 and 2015, with US$63 billion (RM191.52 billion) from the private sector.

“We are keen in co-developing an industrial park with Malaysians in the east region, which provides the right location for investors to export to Iraq, Europe and the Gulf,” he said.

Investors in the park will enjoy 10 years’ tax breaks and 100 per cent equity in business ownership.

Malaysia is keen to be part of Syria’s development in areas covering roads, highways, bridges, water works, housing, telecommunications, solid waste management and power supply.

Both countries see a close cooperation, which will provide access to the Asean and Asian market as well as the growing Middle East.

Read more: Help us build up infrastructure, Syria tells Malaysia

Government Hikes Fuel Oil Price

In a bid to curb its growing subsidies bill, the Syrian Government has decided a steep increase in the price of fuel oil sold to manufacturing concerns starting April this year, according to the local press.

Iraqis to be Issued Syrian Visas on Borders Starting February 1

Iraqis will be given visas on the Syrian border again starting February 1, following a decision by the Syrian Government.

Syrian President Dismisses Aleppo Mayor

Maan Shibli, the head of the municipal council of Aleppo, the country’s second largest city, has been dismissed by the Syrian President.

26-01-2011
بقلم: نادر الشيخ الغنيمي
منشور في العدد (108) من مجلة الإقتصادي

Further Improvements Ahead As Syria Reverses 10 Years Of Oil Production Decline

Syria’s first oil output gain in a decade has been accompanied by a near-doubling of gas output. With the country due to award exploration blocks and complete its new refinery in the near future, 2011 is set to be the most positive year for the Syrian oil and gas industry since US sanctions were imposed in 2004.

مخالفة النمو على الورق للنمو الحقيقي، مفارقة غريبة: تراجع النمو في سورية بين 2005 و2009 بينما ارتفع الناتج المحلي90%

One friend writes of the firing of the Aleppo Mayor:

It was truly astonishing that he had not been touched so far. All his guys were. the president’s last trip may have sealed it. He met with both the acting Foreign Minister of Iran and Foreign Minister of Argentina in Aleppo, which is unusual. He seems to have spent more time in Aleppo this time. last time he personally met with Maan Ober for two hours. I think he really wanted to give him a chance. It seems that in the end it was too much even for him to handle. The rest of the guys were all just found guilty.

Mahmoud Ramadan was going to prison in Aleppo and they are awaiting judge’s final decision on how long he will be there for. I think that when these guys were heading to prison, Maan could not just carry on. This is a very significant development. I now believe that the fight against corruption has taken a more serious step forward. That Maan’s mom is an iconic woman in the party and is an Alawi did is a testimony to that. The president trusted Maan. he gave him incredible powers given that he is merely the head of the municipality (raees baladiye). at one stage he was more powerful than the governor himself, thanks to an open line to the palace. but, Maan like all others could not resist the temptation of making millions over millions. having inside information on the tanzeem meant that a piece of real estate can jump 8-10 fold if it becomes part of the tanzeem (the code changes from agricultural land to residential or commercial).

I would like to think that this is a turning point. Future city officials will think twice before engaging in such wide-scale corruption. But the damage is already done. Large parts of Aleppo’s residential areas have been damaged for good, thanks to terrible instances of granting commercial licenses in the middle of first class residential areas. lots of people have made hundreds of millions and this has made people very very angry. Simple corporate governance procedures were never followed by government officials. on Fridays, Maan would sit with a group of close friends at a coffee shop and discuss what was going on in the city. They were clearly privy to information and even if they were not, the “appearance” of him sitting with business people openly in a coffee shop is not kosher.  It is not good public policy to allow for this corruption to continue. It adds to the resentment of the masses towards the growing income gap.

Will President Bashar Assad hold his nerve?Syria’s economy
Jan 20th 2011 | DAMASCUS | from PRINT EDITION
The market must prevail

SYRIA has been edging away from a centrally planned socialist economy to a “social market” one. “The last five years have been about deconstructing the socialist ideology in favour of the market,” says an adviser to the government. “The next five will be about implementing it.” That means big cuts in subsidies and painful belt-tightening for Syria’s far-from-opulent masses. But will the government, seeing unrest simmer in the region in the wake of Tunisia’s upheaval, hold its nerve?

The proposed changes risk breaking the social contract long upheld by President Bashar Assad’s Baath party. The old deal meant low wages and secure jobs, while providing life’s basics, such as food and fuel, very cheaply. The new plan envisages raising cash by issuing government bonds and soliciting foreign investment to the tune—it is hoped—of $55 billion. As subsidies shrink, the price of fuel, electricity, water, transport and food should rise to market levels.

Fearing unrest, the government recently wobbled. It announced a 72% rise in heating-oil benefits for public workers and froze the price of electricity. But it sorely needs more cash. Oil revenue has dipped as the population, which has doubled to 22m since the mid-1980s, continues to soar. The government cannot put off its reforms for long.

The IMF has for years been urging Syria to do away with subsidies. In 2008 the government leapt ahead of its counterparts in the region, notably Egypt, by raising petrol prices. It removed subsidies for fertiliser but kept many items, including electricity and food, artificially cheap. Direct energy subsidies still cost Syria around 5% of GDP a year, according to the government and the IMF.

Farming, a mainstay of the economy, is also being liberalised. An agricultural fund has been set up to replace blanket subsidies. The list of key crops, which have their prices set by the government as the sole buyer, has been pared down from seven a decade ago to three today: cotton, sugar beet and wheat—deemed the “red-line” crop since it is the basis for bread, the people’s staple. But Syria’s land is hard-pressed to meet demand, let alone provide for a strategic reserve.

The steady introduction of market reforms since 2005 has yet to make a big difference. Opening up business has so far benefited only a few. Property has been bought for speculation. Food prices have risen faster than wages. Quite a few industrialists have seen their businesses founder in the face of cheaper goods from China and Turkey. Plans to ease the pain by creating a welfare safety net have fallen behind. People scrimp to pay for private education and health care because state provision, due to be overhauled in the next five years, is so bad. “The growing wealth gap is threatening the middle class,” says a local economist.

Elections due this year are sure to be tightly controlled. People are still too scared to protest. And events in Tunisia may make the government even warier about pushing ahead with its reforms.

from PRINT EDITION | Middle East & Africa

وحضرته بحسب صحيفة الوطن شخصيات بارزة من شام القابضة

Will Syria become the Singapore of the Middle East? – Ayoon Wa Azan:
Thu, 20 January 2011
Jihad el-Khazen

My friend Nemir Kirdar, the President of the investment bank Investcorp, believes that. He proposed the idea as we were with other friends and our families on vacation for the Western holiday season. While everyone would be singing, I and Nemir would sit in the corner of the house or the restaurant, discuss what we know about Singapore and Syria, and study the possibilities.

There are several requirements for a given country to become a tiger economy, which are present in both Syria and Singapore, while some fundamental differences between both countries exist.

Nemir Kirdar believes that Singapore, not the United States, is the best model to be followed by Arab countries, specifically Syria. He reminded me that the founding fathers sought to build democracy and freedom first in the United States, and then the economy, whereas a country like Singapore (and China) sought to build institutions and advance its economy first, and democracy second. Since I agree with Nemir that we are an undemocratic people, I went along with him in what regards the idea of building a prosperous economy that would enable the government to gain popular support, and at which point democracy becomes possible…..

President Bashar al-Assad began a policy of cautious economic openness, after decades of isolation, and a Western economic embargo for political (read Israeli) reasons. I believe that Syria is capable if it begins a policy of economic openness out of conviction, rather than out of considering that it is an unnecessary evil. There is a trio in place to push the economy forward, consisting of Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Dardari, who comes from the world of media and finance, the Minister of Economic Affairs Lamia Asi, who is an expert in modern technology, and the Minister of Finance Mohammed Hussein, who is rather familiar with the pulse of the street…..

After a later session in London, I agreed with Nemir Kirdar that Dr. Bashar al-Assad can do in Syria what Lee Kuan Yew and his comrades did in Singapore. The nature of the regime in both countries is similar, and so is the influence wielded by the ruler. Meanwhile, the human and natural resources of Syria are much bigger. What Syria is in want of are institutions for an open, competitive and creative economy, while corruption needs to be eliminated, all under the supervision of an independent rule of law.

George Saghir responds to Samir Aita’s Critique
by George Saghir
for Syria Comment
February 16, 2011

What I would have loved to read in Mr. Aita’s critique of my article – What Does the Future Hold for Syria - is a road map for how Syria can achieve its objective of 7-8 percent economic growth. I was looking forward to a discussion on the role of the public sector and the merits (or not) of privatization. For the record, I am in the privatization camp. I was hoping that I would learn what Syria should do to attract the enormous amounts of foreign investments that its government has set as a top policy objective. Sadly, Mr. Aita decided to spend his energy refuting my population growth estimates and accusing me of being part of a discourse talking about Arabs who are “underdeveloped and making a lot of children”.

The population growth assumption:

In comment number 50 in my post, I reiterated to one of the readers the source and logic behind my data. The latest statistic from Damascus is sourced from end of 2009 data. My source is the UN’s population division. The tables can be accessed by visiting their population database which is under “the 2008 revision”. Readers are invited to do so themselves. Those who decide to do so will notice that the tables are listed in 5 year increments. The population growth rate for the 2005-2010 is clearly listed at 3.26%.

Mr. Aita explains that this number is due to the sudden rise of the population in 2006-2007 as Syrian experienced the arrival of around 1.5 million Iraqis. If Mr. Aita is correct in his hypothesis that Iraqi refugees are behind the 3.25% and that Syria has no population problem to worry about then great. Perhaps he should arrange for a meeting with the country’s health minister and assure you him of such since he said the following just a few days ago:

واعتبر الوزير تسارع النمو السكاني مشكلة كبيرة، وسيتم التعامل معها بجدية في هذه المرحلة، من خلال التعاون مع هيئة تنظيم الأسرة للعمل على تخفيض نسبة الولادات، مشيراً إلى أن هذه المشكلة لا تؤثر على القطاع الصحي فحسب بل على كافة القطاعات، ولذا فإن معالجتها لا تنحصر بوزارة الصحة بل هي قائمة على تعاون جميع الوزارات مع بعضها البعض، ولا يكفي تحديد النسل بل يجب نشر الثقافة والتوعية من خلال السلطات الدينية

The health minister is not alone of course. Various government officials including the Prime Minister himself have warned of high population growth rate over the past few years. Hopefully, they don’t also belong to my group of people who are accusing Arabs of being “underdeveloped and making a lot of children”.

Where Mr. Aita does agree with me is on the low participation rates for women. Not only does he repeat my point here but he goes a step further and informs us that:

“Not only is the participation of women in the labor force low in Syria, but it has declined significantly!”

It would have helped of course if he would have shared with us his reasoning of how the low and falling labor participation rates for women would be consistent with a falling population rates to 1.69%. I was under the impression that a population rate of as low as 1.69% for Syria would be consistent with much higher women labor participation rates especially that day-care help is not widespread in our society. This was again a missed opportunity for us to learn more from Mr. Aita.

Unemployment:

I have spent almost 20 years analyzing the relationship between economic growth and the performance of the labor market in the U.S. My note for Syria Comment was not a research paper on growth-employment dynamics. If he felt that my argument was too simplistic then he ought to know that this was precisely what the objective was. Of course, employment and growth are not automatically or perfectly correlated.

That a person with Mr. Aita intellect would say that I want “consciously or not – that Syria follows the fate of Egypt” is indeed astonishing as he himself phrased it.

We are told that consecutive Egyptian governments have tried to increase growth and reduce the population growth rate as their only slogans for “more than two decades”.

This is an inaccurate statement.

Egypt failed to grow its per capita nominal income for nearly two decades. The country’s average nominal GDP per capita was little changed at $2160 in 2009 compared with $2155 in 1989. The economic reforms did not start till 2004 when the former President was finally convinced that he needs to do something to increase growth. Thanks to corruption and cronyism these reforms never trickled down and the simplistic per capita nominal income does a fine job at explaining why Egypt has struggled of late.

Subsidies:

Mr. Aita and the IMF article IV seem to know more about the extent of the subsidies in Syria than the government itself. I do stand by my $8 billion number.

Politically speaking, reducing the subsidies in this environment is not going to be easy as I alluded to in my post. This does not make the subsidies a sound government policy. Subsidies distort the price signals that allocate resources efficiently in an economy. This is a fact. As for the public sector, Mr. Aita defends the sector and the people who decide to seek employment in it. Indeed, Syrians are rationale individuals. The public sector is a magnet for those in the labor force. Government jobs come with a formal contract, health insurance, retirement benefits, maternity leave, “and a minimum level of dignity even when the salaries are low”. It is of course also a job for life so it comes with tremendous security that the private sector will not match. While no one disputes the above, this is hardly a rationale or an endorsement of the sector as a viable economic model.

My “dependency on the state” comment:

The readers seem to have responded negatively when I inferred that the Syrian public has grown dependent on the state. This is fair. Perhaps a better way to have phrased my idea was to say that the state has made the public dependent on it. Most government programs are easier to get into than getting out of. Subsidies and publicly owned enterprises are no exceptions. The Syrian state spends an enormous amount of subsidies on basic commodities and especially energy products. The public criticizes the government for the lack of services ignoring the cost of subsidies and state employment costs. Were the state to have the hindsight of 20/20, there is very little probability that it would have designed such a subsidy system in the first place. I strongly believe that it would not have chosen to be in the business of running so many businesses either. Regrettably, it did.

There is no doubt that the subsidies help cushion the gap between income and expenditures for the low income groups. While the poor benefits, the rich benefits by more. The average Syrian family consumes 600 liters of mazot per year. The range of consumption is 200 to 2000 liters. The government has recently raised the price per liter from SYP 7 TO SYP 20. The family that consumes 200 liters had to endure an extra outlay of $56 a year.   The family that consumes 2000 liters (presumable the wealthy), had to incur 10 times that.
Total subsidies on total energy products (including electricity and fuel) add up to approximately $5.6 billion a year.

How does an average family benefit from say Mazot subsidies?

Given that the average consumption is 600 liters, monthly outlays on mazot add up to SYP 12,000 a year or SYP 1000 a month. The statistics office has recently announced that average median family expenditure on all items is close to SYP 30,000 a month. This means that spending on energy is 1/30 of monthly family spending on all items. The people who benefit from the subsidies are therefore not necessarily the average and poor income families. It is the industrialists who use cheap subsidized fuel and electricity to power plants. It is the smugglers who empty their tanks across the border.

When it comes to electricity, it costs the government SYP 8 per kilowatt. It is sold to households for SYP 2 and to industry for SYP 4. The higher rates only apply when one consumes as high as 2000 kilowatts. It is easy to do the math. There are 5 million household and 3.7 million independent dwellings in Syria.

Education is free in Syria. It should be for the poor. But why should the wealthy end up getting the same benefit. My own parents did not need the subsidies to send me to a Syrian university. The money that they received in my subsidized education at the time should have gone to a hospital or to an infrastructure project.

In sum, subsidies cannot be a blanket right for every Syrian citizen. The government must find a way to do a targeted approach where only the needy receive the help they so desperately need. Robbing from paul (hospitals, roads, infrastructure) to give to peter (my parents who can afford buying sugar, rice, mazot and electricity at market prices) does not strike me as a sustainable business model. With time, the government will go broke opening its subsidy checkbook to 23 million Syrians and growing.

More on the Syrian PMI:

Having checked my name following the posting of my note, Mr. Aita came across the realization that I was “a specialist in financial derivatives”. That discovery seems to have raised his concerns about the fate of our beloved country that has “charged” a person like me with publishing a “reliable” indicator. Mr. Aita should take comfort from the fact that The Syrian government is not directly or indirectly involved in this project. Both Banque Audi and I were not charged by anyone with carrying out this project.

The PMI stands for the Purchasing Managers Index. I have been following this economic indicator since the mid 1980’s. It is widely monitored by both policy makers and global investors. Over the past few years, the index was developed for an increasing list of economies thanks to its simplicity and timeliness. Over time, the index does an excellent job at tracking a country’s GDP. More specifically, it helps indicate whether business conditions in a country are improving, decelerating or staying the same this month versus last month.

Like many developing countries, Syria suffers from the lack of timely data. Following a personal meeting with the chief Executive of Banque Audi –Syria during one of my visits to the country, a discussion took place about the merits of looking into whether such an initiative can take place in Syria. After a few months of discussions, we decided to undertake such an endeavor. Those in charge of calculating the index in the U.S, Saudi and the UAE were contacted. The formulas and methodologies were checked and agreed upon. The success of the index will be based on the response rate from Syrian businesses. This was explained during a meeting with key business owners back in December. Senior members of the Syrian government were notified and were present during the launch. It is important to reiterate that this is a private undertaking. The Syrian government has not “charged” anyone to carry out this effort. Government officials have made it clear that they will support and encourage similar private initiatives and that the presence of Mr. Dardari at the launch was not an exclusive endorsement of this project at the expense of other similar future endeavors. The role of the Syrian government, and especially the office of Mr. Dardari, was exemplary. They supported the project but at an arm’s length. Lastly, it is worth noting that Saghir Advisory Services was recently created just to carry out this none-for-profit initiative. More details especially under the frequently asked questions (About Us tab) can be found by visiting this website.

The U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has recently been renamed the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) report on business:

The Syria PMI is modeled on the US version and will use the same exact methodology.