Personally I've always thought Dubai looked like a crazed consumerist hell as substantial and real as your average mirage, I couldn't work out why anyone would want to go there.

For the record, you visited three years ago, but your Ozymandias article was this year.

Why not three years ago?

Ah, is there anything more pleasant on a Friday afternoon than a good dose of shadenfreude?

Apart from a beer, that is.

no lessons will be learned, they never are, and soon there will be another
Dubai built on shifting debt and so it goes on

Let's play dominoes. I've put them all end up in a row and I've just flipped over the double six at the end.

Was anywhere heading for a fall so obviously as Dubai?

Yes, the US Sub Prime Market?

Yet anyone who wrote a word of the impending doom was excoriated.

It?s like climate change in reverse.

The Guardian was subjected to a campaign of abusive emails when I reflected on the clear parallel with Shelley's Ozymandias and his trunkless legs of stone:

Not to mention Mathew Chapter7 V 26 ? 27.

Like the credit crunch in the west, the short route to folly is the belief that what goes up need never come down and there is no such thing as bad money.
The moral is, don't believe public relations when it flies in the face of history. Don't believe those who say their credit is secure against nothing more solid than a villa bought off-plan by a few Hollywood celebrities. Above all, don't believe the financial press, which did more than anything to boost the self-delusion and architectural bombast of the Dubai authorities. They were fooling you as well as themselves

.

The moral is, don't believe public relations when it flies in the face of Mathew Chapter7 V 26 ? 27.

Poetic justice - Dubai deserved to crash because of the appalling way it treated its migrant labour. And the expatriate communities who turned a blind eye to the abuse deserve to lose their shirts in the debacle.

Never was schadenfreude so well aimed.

Let's make it celebrity and footballer dominoes.

Was anywhere heading for a fall so obviously as Dubai? Yet why did no one ever scream? Why did everyone just marvel?

Speak for yourself, Simon.

I'm no financial wizard but like the doc, I have been saying for years that Dubai has about as much substance as a mirage. I think most anaylsts who didn't have an interest in promoting Dubai saw thorugh it years ago. I mean, who do the hell did they think was going to live in all those apartment blocks and stay in all those tacky 7-star hotels? There are only so many Cheryl Cole's in this world (thank god!)

I think Dubai will continue to be a major resort for Arabs (particularly Saudis) as well as Asians and Russians who can't get visas to go anywhere else. The ARb middle classes still seem to think Dubai is great, for reasons I can't fathom.

Dubai may also still have a role in laundering the money from regional wars and helping the Iranians bust sanctions (in so far as their ultimate master, the US, will let them). But its global ambitions are a thing of the past, andwere always an illusion. Abu Dhabi may bail them out, but will do so with conditions. The other Emirates have long been fed up of Dubai's vulgarity and profligacy, and will certainly rein them in now.

It's in the Bible under Solomon.

Wait until the China bubble bursts.

It's the only constantly inflating bubble in which the world currently has faith.

Why should we have such faith? Like Dubai, China is not exactly transparent.

The place is like Las Vegas, only Vegas has the alcohol, gambling, and vice, that keeps that sort of place going.
I mean, really, apart from shopping and a waterpark, what fun is there in Dubai to actually draw people there?

englishhermit: I think the dominoes theory is a good one in that it will affect the British banks who extended billions in loans there (wonder who'll have to step in to bail them out and who'll end up underwriting that...hmmm....) and the wider global economy.

As I said on another thread, it's great to see super-rich arseholes get their come-uppance and the hundreds of thousands of Bangladeshi, Indian, Nepalese, Pakistani workers there treated liked dirt get some payback (although I do wonder how they'll be able to feed their families with even the criminally underpaid jobs they had gone). But I think we should maybe wait and see how this affects the global economy, including our own, before getting carried away with glee at seeing such a monument to greed and uber-consumerism go tits-up.

Not built on sand Simon. Built on slave labour which is why it deserves to rot like the stinking pile it is.

I know a few people who live there and who have lived there and left. It is full of refugees from lebanon etc who, with the right skills etc, are doing well, the "loose" living of recent years has gone, moral codes are being enforced and life beyond the great hotels and malls isnt that good. And the whole thing is all because of a stupid rivalry between the royal family in the UAE and that in Saudi Arabia. They try and out-do eachother as much as possible and they have their investment tentacles everywhere but even after the bubble has burst, the richest people will remain rich, a few hundred thousand non residents will have to leave and the same rivalries will exist. I still think some of the skyscrapers are amazing, regardless of the reasons behind them.

Still, at least DIC never did buy Liverpool FC.

Clunie

But I think we should maybe wait and see how this affects the global economy, including our own, before getting carried away with glee at seeing such a monument to greed and uber-consumerism go tits-up.

Spoilsport. Just when I was starting to enjoy it. Not been there myself I must admit, although I know people who have. Those that weren't making money hand over fist as corporate lawyers loathed the place.

PhilipD

27 Nov 2009, 3:40PM

Ah, is there anything more pleasant on a Friday afternoon than a good dose of shadenfreude?

Apart from a beer, that is.

schadenfreude I think you meant

"Refugees from the torments of the Islamic world..."

Nice aside there, Simon! Now, tell us what you *really* think...

Really, the whole place is a monstrous real-life set for one of the apocalyptic paintings of the c18-19 artist John Martin. Or maybe all of them - that is, if floods and deluges can be arranged.

Maybe Dubai could still run to this, and make a living by inflicting ongoing cataclysms on itself in front of tourists and film crews. There's a lot of it to get through, after all.

Not only is there a debt problem but the quality of build. Walk in many of the expensive malls and you?ll find the tiles move under your feet. The foundations crumbling like the tinsel world in which it?s built in

scoobysnacks: Spot on.

I think that because all anyone hears about is the super-rich Sheikhs and locals, the super-rich Western expats and the horrifically exploited and abused Asian workers, they assume that everyone there is in the same boat. Actually, there are hundreds of thousands of Arab expats who are just scraping by - as in other Gulf emirates/states - not to mention bedoon (stateless) people who are denied the right to education, healthcare, employment, passports, etc - although at least the UAE, unlike Kuwait and other Gulf nations has said it will naturalise them (though I haven't heard of any actual action being taken to do so).

quackers: You'll also find in many of them that there's a wierd fungal smell throughout - I always thought it was odd that they'd spend billions on the flashiest, trashiest materials and fittings but not think of putting in a basic damp course.

You say: The moral is, don't believe public relations when it flies in the face of history. Don't believe those who say their credit is secure against nothing more solid than a villa bought off-plan by a few Hollywood celebrities. Above all, don't believe the financial press, which did more than anything to boost the self-delusion and architectural bombast of the Dubai authorities. They were fooling you as well as themselves.
But you forgot to mention this: If you want to sell something to any company or country, do not over step your limits. Do not forget risk management principles.
There was a time, an Emirate bank got into trouble and was closed. I had money in it in UK. No other country helped its clients. No government extended credits. It was different when UK banks got in trouble. Tax payers foot in the money. I lost my money in BCCI UK. May be this is the revenge of nature. Drink your own medicine

Do Peter Ebdon still lives there. He is about the biggest celebrity they will having in the near future.

AzuraTheBlueDevil

"The place is like Las Vegas, only Vegas has the alcohol, gambling, and vice, that keeps that sort of place going."

Honest question here ... Why does everyone keep insisting Dubai is booze and vice free?

I've been there numerous times on work and I don't recall EVER being short of booze - beer, spirits, wines - pretty much whatever you want.

As for vice, I've walked into a couple of distinctly dubious establishments and picked up that things were a bit, err, odd.

One club I remember (Oxygen, I think it was called) seemed to be populated by dodgy-looking Russian blokes (mafia, I was informed by our chaperone) and non-too-subtle prostitutes ...

Just seen Dubai described elsewhere as 'Chavlamabad'.

Hilarious.

Vishanti

27 Nov 2009, 4:01PM

Not built on sand Simon. Built on slave labour which is why it deserves to rot like the stinking pile it is.

Yes Vishanti I was reminded of a description of Los Angeles I heard which described the city as: "A very beautiful woman wearing very dirty underwear"

AzuraTheBlueDevil:

The place is like Las Vegas, only Vegas has the alcohol, gambling, and vice, that keeps that sort of place going.

Dubai certainly doesn't have gambling, but there's plenty of booze and vice.

I've had to go to Dubai every month or so for the past 6 years, and I've been telling everyone who'll listen that it's the mother and father of all bubbles, and it's going to burst with an almighty 'bang'.

Trouble is, like all bubbles, it's a wonderful thing if you get in at 10 and get out at 15, so the received wisdom was that it was an investor's paradise.

Dubai: empty glitz, slavery, prostitution, gridlock, pollution and stinking weather. And shops.

Great place.

Oh, and the other question, if someone here can enlighten me ...

How do the rulers of Dubai reconcile the massive borrowing to build the city with Islamic financial rules (usury, etc)?

I'm not having a pop at anyone, just genuinely curious.

At least they've got a set for the next Planet of the Apes movie.

This is really terrible news, Jim Davidson might come back to the UK...

couldn't we bail them out?

One club I remember (Oxygen, I think it was called) seemed to be populated by dodgy-looking Russian blokes (mafia, I was informed by our chaperone) and non-too-subtle prostitutes

What were the prices and service like? Inquiring minds want to know.

Yes I remember Simon, three years ago after his visit to Dubai, predicting this would happen. He's been so vocal on the subject, a real visionary divining the downfall of Dubai for years.....................

? kakihara
27 Nov 2009, 4:37PM
Oh, and the other question, if someone here can enlighten me ...
How do the rulers of Dubai reconcile the massive borrowing to build the city with Islamic financial rules (usury, etc)?
I'm not having a pop at anyone, just genuinely curious.

They find a way to get around it by changing the terminology so that the lender shares an element of risk with the borrower.

Stoatist: Oh bugger, I'm sorry. Hell, head for the pub anyway, it's Friday, I'll buy you a pint :-) I haven't been to Dubai, but my husband has family in Kuwait (he's Palestinian, no perks for them either - or citizenship) ,which is quite similar in outlook, though it hasn't been Las Vegas-ised or gone down the flash 'n' trash route to the same extent as Dubai. It's still very much an Islamic state, so wealthy Westerners tend not to travel there for holidays and shopping sprees (though many of the super-wealthy locals more than make up for this, making Imelda Marcos look like a miser).

It has many of the same flaws as Dubai - including massive abuse of Asian workers, love of building garish malls and skyscrapers, etc - and has ambitions to become an ''economic hub,'' so I assume the Sabahs will be quite happy at seeing Dubai out of the running. Like Dubai, the Western and other expats in Kuwait tend to stick to their own company, make their money and get out, though again like Dubai, those who earn funny money love it and often end up aping the worst excesses of the worst locals, casually abusing servants and behaving like rich knob-ends generally.

SJ
you mentioned your visit three years ago, why didn't you write your piece then?

"How do the rulers of Dubai reconcile the massive borrowing to build the city with Islamic financial rules (usury, etc)? "

It's interest that's haram, not borrowing.

BTW, the bond issue that they've asked to reschedule, that first domino, is actually an Islamic, sharia complaint, bond issue.

Here in neighbouring Abu Dhabi there's a good deal of sniggering at Dubai's problems. For years Dubai sneered at Abu Dhabi as cautious and lacking in ambition, but he who laughs last .........

You'll also find in many of them that there's a wierd fungal smell throughout - I always thought it was odd that they'd spend billions on the flashiest, trashiest materials and fittings but not think of putting in a basic damp course.

As those of us who've worked in the Gulf will know, this kind of thing is absolutely typical. Massively expensive buildings built with an eye on prestige and glamour, with no attention whatsoever to boring old things like drainage or maintanance. Who's going to see this stuff, after all?

Built on slave labour which is why it deserves to rot like the stinking pile it is.

True, but in fairness, the treatment meted out to migrant labourers in Doo-buy is no worse (or no better either) than elsewhere in the Gulf. The same kind of thing goes on all over the region: it's just that Dubai's high profile, and the obscene cost of spending one night in the hotels built by slave labour, makes it seem all the more dispicable in Dubai.

I know some people in construction related fields that set up shop in Dubai just in time for the bust. They were hit hard. However, they tell me that in recent weeks they've started to get quite busy again. It might be a bit premature to assume that Dubai is finished, though I must say it's not on the top of my must see list.

How long before Cameron and his eager tory trolls blame this on the government.?

er... what exactly is the point of this piece? "I was right, hahaha, their financial system isn't as good as ours; oh, and our democracy is better too, nur nur"?!
Grow up, for heaven's sake - the UK economy isn't exactly stable, and is relying on a large dose of foreign capital (Santander Bank, for one). Instead of pointing the finger at people who aren't like us, how about actually pulling out some key thoughts and conclusions that might help us as a nation or as a continent.
On the plus side, it give me hope that I can write for guardian.co.uk. Yay!

BeechyComber and TimWorstall

Thanks for the replies. I'll admit that beyond UK banks offering sharia-compliant mortgages, the minutia of Islamic finance isn't something I've paid much heed to. So with interest being both haram and a pretty central principle of global financial systems I'm curious as to how it all fits together.

I guess I'd just assumed that for most of the ME (Saudi as an example) the issue of borrowing and interest never comes up, what, with all the oil dosh.

savagedave

What were the prices and service like? Inquiring minds want to know

Sorry to disappoint, but we never got into negotiations :+)

an expat schoolfriend who told me "the flies in Dubai airport are diabolical"

the descriptions of intensely hot weather in Lawrence's Seven Pillars of Wisdom.

peak oil/global warming, sealevel investments, and a seven hour flight from western Europe.

Hearing David Beckham bought a house there...

Doh!

.Hearing David Beckham bought a house there...

ACtually, rumour has it that he didn't pay a penny for his 'home' there, and that the developers gave him (and other slebs) a home for free for PR purposes. Shows the kind of market they are trying to attract......

It's always the millionaires who get gifted things the rest of us have to pay for (not that too many people are shelling out on Doo-buy villas though). A bit like all those film stars getting free Dior frocks for Oscars night.

I was in Dubai in 1997, when it was relatively reasonable. However, success made it somewhat mad, encouraging some people to commit huge mistakes of mega elephantine proportions.

Great article Simon.

Dubai didn't do anything the western countries haven't, it bought into the global housing bubble and now has been hit by the global recession. So Simon is outraged by the audacity of Dubai to attempt something so ambitious? I mean Las Vegas was built on the sands in the middle of nowhere, at least Dubai has been a shipping hub for centuries.
As to the people decrying the poor treatment of immigrant workers, they are worse off by the economic demise of Dubai.

JG Ballard, thou shouldst be alive at this hour. Dubai is going to turn into everything he foretold.

The UK has a far worse property bubble than Dubai, but keep publishing the articles hyping the property market, I mean what could go wrong? Property always goes up doesn't it?