The Race for Iran

Photo of Gen. Suleiman meeting with opposition figures by Soliman Oteifi / AP

Defying the conventional wisdom, Robert Springborg, professor of national security studies at the Naval Postgraduate School, has written a piece, see here, in Foreign Policy that lays bare three critical questions that together determine what will happen in Egypt:

–Will the opposition, in the face of a classic divide-and-conquer campaign by Omar Suleiman (for more on Suleiman’s links to the U.S. rendition program and other aspects of his career, please see here) and the current Egyptian government be able to coalesce around Mohamed ElBaradei or some other unifying figure?

–If the opposition fails to coalesce around a unifying figure, will Suleiman or some other player rooted in the current regime emerge as Egypt’s next leader?

–Is the Obama Administration making a long term strategic mistake by backing Suleiman’s effort to co-opt enough of the opposition  to engineer a “stable transition” to a superficially liberalized version of the current political order?

We excerpt from his article below:

“While much of American media has termed the events unfolding in Egypt today as “clashes between pro-government and opposition groups,” this is not in fact what’s happening on the street. The so-called “pro-government” forces are actually Mubarak’s cleverly orchestrated goon squads dressed up as pro-Mubarak demonstrators to attack the protesters in Midan Tahrir, with the Army appearing to be a neutral force. The opposition, largely cognizant of the dirty game being played against it, nevertheless has had little choice but to call for protection against the regime’s thugs by the regime itself, i.e., the military…

The threat to the military’s control of the Egyptian political system is passing. Millions of demonstrators in the street have not broken the chain of command over which President Mubarak presides. Paradoxically the popular uprising has even ensured that the presidential succession will not only be engineered by the military, but that an officer will succeed Mubarak. The only possible civilian candidate, Gamal Mubarak, has been chased into exile, thereby clearing the path for the new vice president, Gen. Omar Suleiman. The military high command…can neutralize any further political pressure from below by organizing Hosni Mubarak’s exile, but that may well be unnecessary. 

The president and the military, have, in sum, outsmarted the opposition and, for that matter, the Obama administration…

In the meantime the regime used the opportunity to place the military in more direct control of the government while projecting an image of business as usual. In addition to securing the presidential succession to Gen. Omar Suleiman, retired general and presidential confidant Ahmed Shafiq was sworn in as prime minister, along with a new cabinet, in all due televised pomp and ceremony…

The stage was thus set for the regime to counterattack the opposition through a combination of divide-and-rule tactics, political jujitsu, and crude application of force. The pledge by Mubarak not to offer his candidacy, the implied succession to Suleiman rather than Gamal, the commitment to revising constitutional provisions that govern the presidential election, and the decision to suspend parliamentary sessions until courts have ruled on contested candidacies from the November election succeeded in convincing some opposition elements that they had gained enough to call it a victory and go home.

As for those elements, including the coalition formed around Mohamed ElBaradei, that deemed these concessions to be insufficient sops intended to preserve the status quo, the regime offered further provocations. Mubarak described them as opportunists and called their patriotism into question, implying that they were stooges of the United States and that he was defending the nation’s independence and dignity. This was classic political jujitsu, for the enraged crowd now redoubled its efforts and demands, using much more insulting language to describe Mubarak himself. This in turn paved the way for the regime to unleash its goon squads to attack protesters.

The military will now enter into negotiations with opposition elements that it chooses. The real opposition will initially be ignored, and then possibly rounded up. The regime will do all possible to restore a sense of business as usual. Cell phone and Internet connections have already been re-established, and automatic teller machines are functioning, though banks remain closed so there can be no run on them. Businesses will be encouraged to reopen, and all possible will be done to ensure a flow of essential supplies into Cairo, Alexandria, and Suez.

The last challenge remaining is economic. Even before demonstrations broke out a few weeks ago, the economy was just limping along. It is now broken. Even in the best-case scenario of a rapid return to stability, Egypt faces a cash crunch. Capital flight, loss of foreign direct investment, drying up of tourist revenues, downgrading of sovereign debt and commensurate increase in interest, and lost earnings from interrupted production will all hammer the revenue side of the balance sheet… Egypt will have to turn to its “friends” if it is to avert economic disaster and if the regime that just narrowly survived defeat is not to be challenged yet again.

The Obama administration, having already thrown its weight behind the military, if not Mubarak personally, thereby facilitating the outcome just described, can be expected to redouble its already bad gamble. Fearing once again that the regime might be toppled, it will lean on the Europeans, the Saudis, and others to come to Egypt’s aid. The final nail will be driven into the coffin of the failed democratic transition in Egypt. It will be back to business as usual with a repressive, U.S.-backed military regime, only now the opposition will be much more radical and probably yet more Islamist…”

Photo by John Moore / Getty Images

Today, the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, addressed the congregation attending Friday prayers at the University of Tehran.  As usual when the Leader speaks publicly, his listeners included a nationwide television audience in Iran.  But, on this occasion, his audience also extended across the Middle East, and Khamenei delivered part of his remarks in Arabic.  For Khamenei was speaking less than two weeks after the start of a remarkable cycle of popular protests in Egypt that marked the beginning of the end of President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year tenure, and the Leader wanted to talk directly to people in Egypt and across the Arab world. 

In his remarks, Khamenei said that “developments in North Africa, Egypt, Tunisia and some other countries have a special meaning for the Iranian nation.  This is what was always referred to as the Islamic awakening created by the victory of the great Islamic revolution of the Iranian nation and is showing itself today.”  Focusing on Egypt and its long-time President, Hosni Mubarak, Khamenei said that “for 30 years this country has been in the hands of someone who is not seeking freedom and is the enemy of those seeking freedom.  Not only is he not anti-Zionist, but he is the companion, colleague, confidant, and servant of Zionists.  It is a fact that Hosni Mubarak’s servitude to America has been unable to take Egypt one step towards prosperity.”  Khamenei also underscored the strategic significance of what was happening in Egypt:  “If they are able to push this through then what will happen to U.S. policies in the region will be an irreparable defeat for America”. 

In substance, Khamenei’s remarks amplified and extended—with, of course, the unique authority of his office—observations made by other senior political and religious figures in Iran about the crisis in Egypt.  Just a week before Khamenei spoke at the University of Tehran, the city’s interim Friday prayer leader, Ayatollah Seyed Ahmad Khatami, claimed that “all these protests in Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan, and Yemen are inspired by Iran’s Islamic revolution” and that “an Islamic Middle East is being created based on Islam, religion, and democracy”.  Likewise, majles speaker Ali Larijani described events in Egypt and Tunisia as “a kind of Islamic awakening that the Westerners should pay attention to.”  Noting that “the most important of Imam Khomeini’s eternal legacies in the contemporary world was his offering a model for religious democracy”, Larijani said that, if the United States would stop interfering, people in Egypt “will show you what kind of democracy they want…Then they will express their hatred of the US.” 

All of these remarks reflect an important reality dramatically underscored by events in Egypt:  the balance of power in the Middle East is, in fact, shifting, away from the United States and its allies and in favor of the Islamic Republic and its partners.  Moreover, Tehran is not just a beneficiary of this shift; the Islamic Republic has, through its foreign policy and national security strategy, helped to bring it about. 

We are grateful to a www.RaceForIran.com contributor who has provided his translation of Khamenei’s remarks, delivered in Arabic and addressed to the Egyptian people, which we are pleased to highlight below:   

“Greetings to the entire Muslim Ummah wherever they are. At this moment in the Islamic world, a grand and glorious phenomenon is occurring that will determine the destiny. A phenomenon that can completely revolutionize the arrogant powers’ equation in favor of all the people of the region. A phenomenon that could restore the respect and dignity of the Arab nations and Islamic Ummah. A phenomenon that could wipe away and cleanse decades of miasma of oppression, humiliation, and degradation coming from the direction of the United States and the West over these ancient people and well-rooted nations.

This miraculous event began by the people of Tunisia and has reached its climax by the great and mature people of Egypt. It has taken away the breath of two worlds: the West and the Islamic world; each for their own reason. Each is waiting to see the Great Egypt, the Egypt of outstanding people of the recent century; Egypt of Muhammad Abdeh and Seyyed Jamal; Egypt of Sa’ad Zeghloul and Ahmed Shoghi; Egypt of Jamal Abdol-Nasser and Al-Sheykh Hassan Al-bana; Egypt of 1967 and 1973; what will today’s Egypt do? How high will it hold its flag of determination? If this flag, God forbids, falls, a dark and gloomy era will follow. If this flag is raised to the peak and is secured, it will raise its head high up in the skies.

The people of Tunisia were able to evict a traitor, a slave of US, a force against principles. However, it would be a misjudgment if it is assumed that this could be the ultimate desired outcome. A regime that lacks sovereignty will not collapse with the exit of its most noticeable pawn. If other pawns, other associates replace him, nothing has changed. Only the net of deception has been cast wider. In the Islamic Republic of Iran, they wished, so many times, to trap our nation. But vigilance by our awakened nation and Godly grand leader learned the enemy’s trickery and neutralized it. And they have continued their path.

But Egypt, the very issue of Egypt is an exceptional example. Because Egypt is an exceptional country among Arab nations. Egypt is the first country in the Islamic word that became acquainted with the European culture. By the same token, it is also the first country in the Islamic world that got to know what it means to be subjected to the dangers of cultural aggression, and to oppose such aggression. It is the first country that formed a truly independent Arabic country after World War II and began to defend its national interest especially as it related to Suez Canal. It is the first country that stood up to help the Palestinians with all its might and became known in the Islamic world as the champion of the Palestinians. Seyyed Jamal’eddin was not Egyptian.  However, he found that no other place but Egypt could offer a glimpse of hope to deeply understand a Muslim nation’s great predicament. The nation of Egypt, in both religious and political scent, proved its worthin  ess that is recorded in history. Muhammad Abdeh and his students, Sa’ad Zeghlol and his followers were not some fanatic callow individuals. They were a group of such exceptional, brave, and awakened geniuses that if any nation could produce only one such character, that nation is justified in its pride. Egypt with its depth in culture, in religion, in politics, it indeed occupied it rightful place of leadership in the Arab world.

The greatest crime of this current regime in Egypt is that it brought down a great nation from an elevated status to that of lowly helpless pawn in political games in the region. The explosion we are witnessing in the great Egyptian nation is a response to this unforgivable crime a dependent dictator committed against his people.

Today, all over the world, they are offering multiple colorful analysis about the uprising of the Egyptian nation. Everyone is saying something different. However, only those who truly know Egypt can clearly see that Egypt has risen up to defend its dignity and its integrity. The Egyptian nation has grabbed a traitor criminal by his collar so that it can free itself from he who auctioned off its dignity, he who brought it down from the height of pride, he who sacrificed the honor and pride of a nation at the alter of superiority and arrogance of its enemies. The most obvious of these was the Egyptians status with respect to Palestinians.  Palestine, for decades, has been a core issue in this region. The complexity and interwoven nature of all regional problems are such that no nation in the region can separate its own destiny from that of the Palestinians. Only two fronts exists: either defending the Palestinians and their just struggle, or joining the opposite camp.

The nations of the region have clarified their position.  It is such that any government that defends Palestinians, it garnishes the support of its own people and Arab and Muslim nations. Egypt know this by experiences of 60s and 70s. Any time its government defines itself within the framework of the opposite camp, it loses its own people’s support. In Egypt, it was since Camp David that a great divide was created between the Egyptian people and the government. The Egyptian people which defended the Palestinians with their own lives and material possessions gradually witnessed their rulers had exceeded their subservience and obedience of the US to a degree that Egypt has turned into one of the most faithful cosigners of a Zionist enemy invader. United States’ domination over Egyptian people has been so severe that it annulled so much hardship the Egyptian people endured in defense of Palestine. It changed Egypt to the greatest enemy of the Palestine and greatest protector  of Zionists.

This was happening with Egypt while Syria, Egypt’s ally in 67 and 73 wars, maintained its independence despite enormous pressures from U.S. Shamelessness of Egyptian regime’s subservience reached a point that for the first time in history, the Egyptian people witnessed that in the war Israel waged against their brothers in Gaza, their government placed itself in Israel’s camp. Not only did it not help their brothers but also worked actively in enemy’s camp. The history will never forget that Hosni Mubarak is the same person who was the collaborator, confidant, and partner along with Israel and the US in the most horrific siege of the people of Gaza and 22 days of massacre of women, men, and children of Gaza. One can only imagine how the Egyptian people were feeling those days. Television scenes were showing the depth of despair felt by the Egyptian people’s tears and cries were talking about how they are not allowed to rush to their brothers’ help and respond to t  heir cries for help. How much more do you think this Muslim Egyptian nation can tolerate and endure pain? What is being witnessed today in Cairo and other cities in Egypt is an explosion of sacred anger. It is an  eruption of hidden wounds accumulated and festered for years through the behaviors of an un-Muslim and traitor regime.

The uprising of Muslim Egyptian nation is an Islamic and freedom-seeking movement. I, in the name of the people and government of Iran, send salutations to you and pray to God for your complete victory. Of you and your uprising I am filled with pride. There is no doubt that each nation’s uprising is unique and entirely dependent upon their geographic, historical, political, and cultural confounders. It is not realistic or logical to expect that what happened during the great Islamic revolution in Iran 30 years ago to happen exactly as such in Egypt, Tunisia, or any other Islamic country. However, there are some commonalities among them that experiences of one nation could be useful for another. Followings are the experiences that might prove useful:

1. In every uprising, the real war is between the wills. The side that perseveres and endures hardship, is the side that is definitely victorious. Quran teaches us that:

 إنّ الّذینَ قالُوا رَبُّنُا اللَّه ثُمَّ استَقامُوا تَتَنَزَّلُ عَلَیهِمُ المَلائِکَه ألَّا تَخافُوا وَ لا تَحزَنُوا وَ أبشِرُوا بِالجَنَّهِ الَّتی کُنتُم تُوعَدونَ

And it warns the Prophet that: فَلِذلِکَفَادعُوَاستَقِمکَمااُمِرتَ وَ لا تَتَّبِع أهواءَهُم The enemy tries to bend your will by force or by deception. However, make sure you remain steadfast.

2. The enemy tries to convince you that you can never reach your goals and instills hopelessness in you. However, God promises:

 وَنُرِیدُ أَن نَمُنَّ عَلَى الَّذِینَ اسْتُضْعِفُوا فِی الْأَرْضِ وَنَجْعَلَهُمْ أَئِمَّةً وَنَجْعَلَهُمُ الْوَارِثِینَ وَلَیَنصُرَنَّ اللَّهُ مَن یَنصُرُهُ إِنَّ اللَّهَ لَقَوِیٌّ عَزِیزٌ

3. The enemy is arming and mobilizing its paid agents and security forces so that they create insecurity and chaos to a degree that you are fed up. Do not be afraid of them. You are stronger than them. You are at the following stage where the Prophet and his companions were once:

یَا أَیُّهَا النَّبِیُّ حَرِّضِ الْمُؤْمِنِینَ عَلَى الْقِتَالِ إِن یَکُن مِّنکُمْ عِشْرُونَ صَابِرُونَ یَغْلِبُواْ مِئَتَیْنِ وَإِن یَکُن مِّنکُم مِّئَةٌ یَغْلِبُواْ أَلْفًا مِّنَ الَّذِینَ کَفَرُواْ بِأَنَّهُمْ قَوْمٌ لاَّ یَفْقَهُونَ Trust God and mobilized and organize your inspired youth and you could overcome any insecurity and chaos.

4. The most critical weapon a nation has when facing hired rulers and arrogant powers is unity and concordance. Your enemies will employ every deceptive tactic to divide you. For example, they bring up natural disagreements to drive a wedge; they inject deviating slogans; they introduce unknown faces by causing an elevation of their characters; they introduce known faces with known reputation but untrustworthy as a replacement for a traitor president. Solidify your unity based on your religion and salvation of your country from paid enemies.

وَاعْتَصِمُوا بِحَبْلِ اللَّـهِ جَمِیعًا وَلَا تَفَرَّقُوا

5. Do not trust the political maneuvering of US and the west. Until a few days ago, they were defending a corrupt regime. Now that they have lost hope, they have begun paying lip service to the right of nations. Under this guise, they are trying to, once again, force upon you their own agents. This is the greatest insult to other nations’ intelligence. Do not tolerate this insult and do not submit to anything but the establishment of a system that is independent, works for the people, and genuinely adheres to Islam.

6. Those learned people and scholars of religion who have a bright legacy should step up. A people who began its uprising from a mosque and during a Friday prayer and cries out “Allah Akbar” indeed have a justified expectation of their learned people.

7. The Egyptian army has the honor of having participated in at least two wars against Zionist enemy. This army is now facing the greatest test in its history. The enemy wants to use the army against the people. God forbids if such event occurs, that would be the greatest tragedy for the Egyptian army that can never be healed. That entity against which the Egyptian army must stand is the Zionists and not the Egyptian people. Certainly, those components of the army who are of the people and their children will eventually join the people. This sweet experience will once again be repeated in Egypt.

8. Finally, United States which for 30 years has supported a cruel ruler against his own people is not in any position to enter the scene as an honest arbiter. Regard any American act with suspicion and do not trust it.

My beloved brothers and sisters! These are our experiences. I, as a Muslim brother and out of my religious duties and obligations, shared these experiences with you. The enemies trumpets will be played loudly just as they have always been. They will claim Iran want to interfere. They will say Iran wants to turn Egypt into a Shi’a nation. They will say Iran wants to export “Velayat Faghih” (Guardianship of the Learned and Pious). And Iran wants….Iran wants… Iran wants….They have repeated these lies for 30 years to keep our nations and people apart and deprive us from helping one another. They say these and their paid lackeys will repeat these.

یُوحِی بَعْضُهُمْ إِلَى بَعْضٍ زُخْرُفَ الْقَوْلِ غُرُورًا  وَلَوْ شَاءَ رَبُّکَ مَا فَعَلُوهُ  فَذَرْهُمْ وَمَا یَفْتَرُونَ

With these deceptive tactics, we will never abandon our obligations which have been bestowed upon us by Islam. و الله من وراء القصد. (Only God knows true intentions.) واستغفرالله لی و لکم.”

“We are honored to feature the analysis of our friends and colleagues at the Beirut-based Conflicts Forum, reprinted here with their permission:

It is too early to predict the wider implications of the regional stirrings, but there are some initial observations that can be made:

     • The events, first in Tunisia, and now in Egypt, are creating exhilaration throughout the region. There is a sense of huge empowerment, a loss of fear, of ordinary people that speaks of profound psychological change. It is this change, which signals one of these rare shifts of a collective consciousness. It will open new possibilities for politics; but as always in such moments the possibilities which may open will not yet be evident – even to those who participated in the initial protests.

     • In the West, quite some emphasis has been placed on the fact that demonstrators’ anger is focused on high prices, falling living standards and rising unemployment. This western emphasis is intended to suggest that this uprising is no more than a lack of material needs. In other words, what is intended is to suggest a de-politicised movement that can be defused by supplying its material lack. This, we believe, is to misconstrue events. What is happening in Egypt, what has happened in Tunisia is deeply political. It is the rejection of a system of corrupt élites, oligarchs and of their repression of the people. Listen to the demonstrators: they call for ‘dignity, a restoration of their pride and justice’. This is about politics, not just economics. Most revolutions begin with a commonplace complaint about life that embraces everyone – the political dimensions well up to the surface only as revolution unfolds.

     • Is this an Islamist conspiracy? No. What we are observing in Egypt as elsewhere is a genuine popular movement that is embracing all sections of the community – Egypt’s judges – integral parts of the establishment – took part in Tahrir Square demonstrations. The Islamists recognise this plurality. They also know that any attempt by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt to lead the movement, or be seen to stamp their vision on the popular protests, would draw the implacable animosity of the West. They have learned the lessons of the past decade of exclusion and demonisation. They will have no desire to repeat this experience: It is not their aim. This stage of the uprising is seen as an interim one. The need next is for a temporary apolitical unity government to stage early and free elections. Al-Baradei, is a good choice to negotiate this: better known in the West than to many Egyptians, he has no real political base within the country. He can lead the interim process – and then will be expected to depart, once the people have given expression to the ‘new politics’ of a new era. The Islamists will consider their next steps in the light of this public articulation. But make no mistake, the culture of Egypt is Islamic, the everyday language of Egypt is drenched in Islamic values. The largest constituency – the poor – are genuinely pious Muslims.

     • A change in Egypt will change everything in the region: For thirty years, Mubarak’s ‘dead-hand’ approach to Arab politics is seen to have been the source of stasis in the Arab world. His going would shift not just the strategic balance, but also virtually every state in the region – in one way or another. Last year’s Pew survey of Arab sentiment showed that only 17% of Egyptians held a favourable view of the US, whereas 82% held an unfavourable view – hence the deep suspicion of US and European motives in attempting to manage the post-Mubarak era.”

Photo by Mohammed Abed / AFP / Getty Images

We thought that a recent comment by Arnold Evans on www.RaceForIran.com put forward a very thoughtful and provocative (in the best sense of that word) set of questions and benchmarks for evaluating unfolding developments in Egypt.  Given the monumental importance of on-going events in Egypt, we want to stimulate a focused discussion on Arnold’s ideas.  Therefore, we highlight his comment below as a stand-alone post and are grateful for his contribution.

 From Arnold Evans:

“I’m really not good or comfortable at predicting past an environment-changing event.  There are a lot of questions that have to close regarding Egypt before I’ll feel able to make anything but the most broad statements.

This process might end up turning the people of Egypt and the general region even more virulently anti-American than they were before.  Or it may take pressure off of the US by the US turning in time and (falsely) presenting itself as a supporter of democracy.

The US is going to have to develop and rationalize a policy toward the remaining colonial dictatorships of – after Egypt – Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE and others.  What will the policy be and what will the rationalization be?

As the colonial dictatorships are reaching a new equilibrium, we still have to see exactly what Iraq ends up looking like and what post-2011 agreement it can reach concerning its relationship with the United States.

We have to see what government is going to form in Lebanon, what its policies will be and how it will relate to the United States.

If everything falls Iran’s way, the president of the US may have to go to Israel’s supporters and say, “We tried, but we can’t afford to try to keep the region safe for you any more.  You’d better immediately take whatever deal the Palestinians are willing to offer, and if not, you’re going the way of Apartheid.”  In that (for now unlikely) scenario, literally overnight the entire dispute between Iran and the US will dissolve.

If everything falls the US’ way, 2012 might look at lot like 2010.  It does seem close to certain that Egypt will not be the stooge of the United States and Israel that it was, but how different is not clear yet.

Who is going to be Egypt’s first post-Nasser charismatic leader?  What will that person’s policies and ideas be?  How will that person relate to the rest of the region?

Mubarak was the best possible ruler for Iran from a US/Zionist point of view, as right wing Zionists have said openly all along.  The US is losing that.

Between that and other changes going on in the region at the same time, I can’t guess what the US posture towards Iran will be after the dust settles.  There are a whole lot of variables.

One thing Iran does, is that it seems to appreciate the value of flexibility and of not making long term commitments based on short term considerations.”