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EGYPT
Mubarak Leave At Last
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MUBARAK
Worst Speech Ever
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OBAMA
Still Trying for Egyptian Change
Posted By Marc Lynch
Tuesday, November 2, 2010 - 3:07 PM
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Dan Drezner's going to bed early tonight because he doesn't think the outcome of Congressional elections matters much for foreign policy. But at least on Middle East issues, that's crazy. If the GOP takes Congress, it might overwhelmingly approve an Iran sanctions bill which ties the hands of President Barack Obama's administration and undermines its efforts to construct an effective negotiation strategy. Or it might irresponsibly fail to confirm ambassadors to Syria and Turkey, two key players in the region, for no good reason. I could even see it slashing funding for the civilian mission in Iraq, forcing the administration to scramble to deliver on its promise of a long-term civilian and political commitment. Oh wait…
Seriously -- and with apologies to some of the good eggs in Congress who have played a constructive role the last few years, such as Senators John Kerry (D-MA) and Dick Lugar (R-IN) at the SFRC -- there are real reasons to worry about the effects of a GOP-controlled Congress for Middle East policy, even beyond the… odd… views of some of the likely new members and committee chairs. Foreign leaders and publics may take the outcome of the election as a signal about what to expect from Obama in the next two years and craft their strategies accordingly. A GOP victory might embolden Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to continue stonewalling Obama and to stoke partisan opposition to his policies, for instance. Iran may conclude that it's pointless to do a deal with Obama if they think he can't deliver on his end. But those perception effects will matter mostly at the margins, I'd say, since the political struggles have been going on for such a long time that the election is already factored into their calculus.
That doesn't mean that a changeover would be irrelevant. I'm not looking forward to clownshow hearings with lunatics denouncing creeping sharia and whipping up anti-Islamic hysteria, which could undermine Obama's public diplomacy and counterterrorism strategies and do some real long term damage. I'm gritting my teeth in anticipation of the next Congress becoming a platform for Iran war hawks, hyping the issue even further in anticipation of the 2012 elections… look for another round of sanctions and some kind of Iranian Liberation Act on the horizon, regardless of how things are actually going for U.S. diplomatic efforts. A GOP-controlled Congress may not go for the big $60 billion arms sale to the Saudis, what with that whole "sharia" thing. Endless harassing subpoenas and investigations and the inevitable impeachment attempt may be a wee bit distracting. But overall I think the effects are more likely to be domestic than on foreign policy or the Middle East.
And who knows -- maybe the polls are wrong. I don't think I know anyone who actually answers a home phone showing an unknown number on Caller ID, but I also know that I'm not the least bit normal, and far be it from me to question the geniuses over in the polling bureaus. Guess we'll find out tonight. And what would be the effect of a surprising Democratic performance and relative Republican failure after all this buildup? Beats me. But unlike Drezner, I don't think I'll be going to bed early tonight.
Not to mention they could delist MKO from the terror list
and start funding it as the "main opposition group" against iran.
The Clinton experience after 1994
The Clinton experience after 1994 showed that process issues rather than specific policy decisions are most likely to be affected by the change in partisan control of Congress.
The 1994 elections made Jesse Helms chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, ideally positioned to harass Clinton administration officials, delay confirmation of nominees, and undermine the ability of the State Department to do its job. Clinton could have fought Helms, but Clinton was no fighter once he left the campaign trail. His administration ended with a State Department far weaker than the one he had inherited, and with American foreign assistance programs reduced in size and hobbled with restrictions.
The House having just gone Republican should make less difference, as only the Senate is able to block Presidential nominees, but this depends in part on how hard President Obama is prepared to fight for the personnel and programs he wants. During his first two years as President, Obama rarely made much of an issue of Republican obstruction on nominations, even when that obstruction was motivated by trivial reasons. Obama generally doesn't have a record of standing up for his people, outside of the people in his immediate inner circle, mostly intimates from Chicago and the campaign. If his administration has a foreign assistance program its willing on behalf of which it is eager to throw punches, it's been kept a secret up to now.
Obama spent two years acting as if it would be self-evident to everyone that those obstructing what he wanted to do were unreasonable and wrong. That kind of thing is hardly ever self-evident to anyone, certainly not where arcane matters of foreign policy personnel and process are concerned. Obama will have to have a much clearer idea of why he wants his nominees and how he wants foreign assistance, public diplomacy and other programs to operate if he is not to find his administration encumbered as Clinton's was by a hostile Congress.
Progressivism's new mantra "Be Afraid" "Be Very Afraid"
Otherwise the GOP boogymen are going to get you!!!!
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Please, it sounds like Mark Lynch has been dipping into the Colbert "Fear campaigan" honey pot a wee bit too often.
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It's nice to see those wonderful supporters of Democracy go all to pieces when there is an election that doesn't go their way.
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All hail the safe transfer of power between political parties. Except when it happens to them.
"A GOP victory might embolden Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to continue stonewalling Obama and to stoke partisan opposition to his policies, for instance."
Gee, you think?
Netanyahu has bet his government that Obama will be a one-term president, and it looks like he has the clout to make sure it happens.
Why would he do anything other than stonewall Obama about everything?
Can Netanyahu require Obama to start a war with Iran, or will that have to wait for 2 more years?
I didn't recall that in the Constitution
I thought that only congress could approve wars, I did not see the clause that gives to the Israeli PM the power have the U.S. declare war.
Or are still convinced that we are Israel's slave and now we will spend billions to wage wars and even cover up their 9/11 attack and U.S.S. Liberty just to decieve our populace?
It isn't in the constitution, obviously.
"Or are still convinced that we are Israel's slave and now we will spend billions to wage wars and even cover up their 9/11 attack and U.S.S. Liberty just to decieve our populace?"
What are you talking about? There's no proof that Israel was involved in 9/11. And the US Liberty incident was a long time ago and it has gotten publicity in recent years. The US government never completely covered it up, nor did the US media. Even back in the days when no other US publication would touch the story, Penthouse magazine covered it. So you can't really say it was covered up.
If the GOP attempts to force Obama to bomb Iran, he will be forced to make a speech & let the public know they'll be paying 3x as much for gas if not more. That would be a reality check. If they can't take a mild tax increase, their really going to hate it when their fuel spikes! You don't bomb people b/c you don't like them and that seems to be what the GOP policies are based on with this new crowd. Lugar is the only one I can think of that I trust on that side right now. The Dems in the Senate are just as hawkish as Lugar if not more when it comes to Israel.
Marc Lynch is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University.
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