Thank You For Reading

• Commentary
• By Iain Martin

Is Now a Sensible Time for Massive Defense Cuts?

• Commentary
• By Iain Martin

The Battle for the No Campaign and a Prime Minister in Peril

• Commentary
• By Iain Martin

In the summer months, when David Cameron was luxuriating in the afterglow of his Number 10 Rose Garden love-in with Nick Clegg, there was one subject he simply didn’t want mentioned: his failure to win the general election outright. Tories who suggested in the Prime Ministerial presence that a proper inquest into the duff Conservative campaign was required, on the basis that those who forget the lessons of history are doomed to repeat their mistakes, were told firmly to pipe down.

This weekend, as the Prime Minister contemplates the serious possibility of defeat in the AV referendum, he may have cause to wish he had listened, learned the lessons from the election and thought ahead. The implications for Cameron if the AV vote on May 5 is lost are potentially extremely serious. His parliamentary party would become almost uncontrollable. A senior Conservative backbencher told me: “I think we’ve lost on AV. I think it’s probably too late to claw it back and I think the consequences for Cameron are going to be much, much worse than he realises”.

Larry the Cat Unconvinced by Big Society

• Commentary
• By Iain Martin

Downing Street has a new cat, appointed to deal with a recent infestation. Number 10 has even issued a statement (really) welcoming Larry to his role. The moggie will probably be given a Twitter account and there is even talk of a blog. I have obtained Larry’s first posts:

Sunday:
At heart, I’m a suburban cat. Show me a nice row of semi-detached houses, set amidst trees, with a little park nearby and plenty of places to hide from dogs, and I’m your cat. If I encounter a mouse I prefer it to be out in the open, with enough space to create the excitement of a chase but close enough to home that I can be back in front of the gas fire, mouse carcass in mouth, within five minutes. The suburbs are where I’m happiest. But my new owners seem, in terms of inclination and outlook, to be a strange blend of the rural and urban. I don’t think they know where the suburbs are. They have a very large house in the middle of nowhere in the country, and a smaller house in the country near a village, where they used to spend weekends. During the week they are urbanites—not Stockwell, or Camden Town, but Whitehall. But to a cat, centre of town means one thing: Rats, very big rats. I didn’t get where I am today by chasing around rats. They bite, they chase you and they are a menace. Removing rats is work for the local authority, or a private contractor hired by the council.

Monday:

Photographs taken with the family and a chance to meet Sam and Dave properly. They seem very nice, although a little preoccupied with something called the Big Society.

Yes to AV Unveils Backing of Dinner Party From Hell Guest List

• Commentary
• By Iain Martin

I wrote yesterday that the No to AV campaign has some problems. Number 10 doesn’t want the anti-AV drive to focus on Nick Clegg, for fear of upsetting Cameron’s coalition partner. The result so far is an indistinct message that lacks clarity and coherence (a state of affairs familiar to those who studied the Tory campaign that failed to win them the general election). The Yes camp has built a strong lead in the polls.

But the Yes campaign is also in the midst of making what may turn out to be a category A error. Fearing that their opponents will, if they have their heads screwed on, try to hang it all on Nick Clegg, they have signed up a bunch of celebrities and luvvies to back their attempt to change the voting system. It reads like a guest list from The World’s Worst Ever Dinner Party.

Art Malik is there, with Joanna Lumley, Tony Robinson and John Cleese. (Incidentally, what on earth happened to Cleese somewhere between Fawlty Towers and now? And don’t say “Clockwise.”) The only one possibly worth admitting is Billy Bragg.

Without Robust Attacks on Nick Clegg, ‘No to AV’ Will Be Sunk

• Commentary
• By Iain Martin

Mike Smithson at Political Betting asks if the “No to AV” campaign has a message problem? Not one for John Rentoul’s “Questions to Which the Answer is No” series, because the answer is clearly yes.

The pro-AV campaign is making good progress in the polls and opening up a strong lead. With fewer than 90 days to polling day (if the referendum takes place on May 5th as scheduled) it is the Yes camp that has all the momentum.

And so far there has been no indication that the anti-AV squad are planning to play with sufficient force their strongest card: Nick Clegg. The Lib Dem leader didn’t care for AV before the election (even Nick doesn’t agree with Nick) but he is now an enthusiastic advocate for it and the figure who it might be said has most to gain from a Yes vote in May. If the pro-AV cause becomes overly identified with Clegg it would have a problem.

For that reason, I’ll wager that the pro-AV campaign keeps Clegg as far from the frontline as possible in the campaign proper. Post tuition-fees, he has worse ratings than Hosni Mubarak, particularly amongst the Labour voters that the Yes campaign must convince if it is to win.

Cameron’s Love of Being an EU Leader Is the Block on His Friends’ Eurosceptic Ambitions

It seems that leading figures around the Prime Minister are rediscovering their Eurosceptic roots. Their voyage of discovery–which until now has been happening out of public view–is a very significant development in the life of the coalition government. It is a harbinger of tension and potential conflict.
James Forsyth has the story in an important piece in the Mail on Sunday. He reveals that Oliver Letwin, Cameron’s policy guru, and Steve Hilton, his best political friend, are becoming increasingly exasperated with the European Union and its demands. The Cameroons consider the machinery of Whitehall too in hock to the European Union, and view the regulations and missives of the EU as an obstacle to their aim of decentralising power and decision-making at home. The phrase “in or out referendum” has been heard.

Inside the Big Society Rescue Talks

• Commentary
• By Iain Martin

The wheels appear to be coming off the Big Society bus. The man hired to drive it, Lord Wei, has scaled back the time he can commit. He had been assured that his position would come with a salary but shortly after the election it was downgraded to an unpaid post. This had a negative impact on his family finances and he must now spend more time earning money elsewhere. Charities and volunteering organisations that have come to rely, often too heavily, on state contracts are upset that their money is being cut. Liverpool is pulling out of the initiative all together. How, the leader of the opposition asked David Cameron at PMQS on Wednesday, is the Big Society coming along?

Today Allegra Stratton in the Guardian has blown the lid off the Cameroon blame game that has started behind the scenes in Whitehall. Predictably and conveniently, the recently departed Andy Coulson is being blamed by former colleagues for not promoting the BS agenda with sufficient energy. This is, to put it mildly, a bit rich. In reality, it is extraordinary that Coulson bit his tongue as often as he did — when the Big Society was taking over the Tory manifesto and their election campaign. It then dominated Cameron’s speech to Tory party conference in the autumn, as he told Britons to get off their backsides, volunteer and go mend the leaky roof in the local youth centre. Two points: First, many people already do a lot; this stuff happened long before the Cameroons claim to have discovered it. Second, as Mrs. Martin pointed out while watching clips of Cameron’s conference speech on that night’s 10 o’clock news: “That’s easy for him to say” but the millions of his fellow Britons who work long hours for not much money and come home to little more than a pile of ironing are already pretty busy.

George Osborne in His Pomp Bashes Ed Balls

The Chancellor is a fan of the policy announcement delivered shortly after dawn. That way he can avoid offending various newspapers, by not having to single out one of the small number of rival key political hacks who might be eager for lollipops the evening before. Instead he prefers to drop such announcements into Radio 4′s Today programme or another breakfast show. That means he meets the “shaving mirror or make-up test” of media management. Rule number one: Best catch your opponent out and announce something on the radio or breakfast TV when they are shaving or applying their make-up. That way you cause maximum confusion as your enemy tries to listen to the detail, whilst hurriedly finishing shaving or applying mascara over the sound of children making a racket and his or special advisor ringing non-stop on the mobile phone to ask “boss, how should we respond?”.

The art of surprise can sometimes work for Osborne. It seems to have done so on Tuesday morning, when his sudden announcement of an £800m extension of the bank levy in political terms changed the lead news story on the day when he was first due to face Ed Balls as shadow chancellor in the Commons. Presumably Balls was ready to paint Osborne in that encounter as insufficiently tough on bank bonuses. Cleverly, ahead of that the Chancellor obscured the bonus issue with another tax raid on the institutions themselves.

Osborne loves playing the game of politics. And there must be a real delight in now having most of the cards, just like Brown and Balls used to, and being able, as they did, to play them at the moment of maximum advantage.