The Battle for the No Campaign and a Prime Minister in Peril

“painting AV as a confusing system that makes winners out of those who come second or third”

Like Cameron did in the 2005 Tory leadership election.

Send for David Davies, the true winner in Cameron’s opinion.

Or perhaps sending for David Davis would be better….

My bad

“resentful MPs outside”

They deserve to lose their seats, in that case. Bunch of children.

Where is this poll that has the yes vote leading, most people I know either don’t care or are no voters.

Where does the Murdoch press stand on AV?

Jim, see the latest Angus Reid poll giving Yes a 15 point lead:

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/02/17/angus-reid-reports-a-16-point-lead-for-yes/

For no reason other than to see Cameron kicked into the long grass I will vote YES. (I am voting NO in the Welsh Assembly referendum).

With the right wing press against AV it will be very interesting.

I think this referendum is very interesting in a 3:30 derby kind of way. Any horse could win and, in the scheme of things, it’s pretty unimportant to the punter whether it’s Deadbeat Nag or Knackered Filly that gets past the finishing line first.

An excellent piece. I am no lover of Cameron but he appears to be the best we have right now. Should he continue in the face of the public’s desire for change then I accept your analysis will be correct. If we look at Egypt and elsewhere we observe this passion for proper change. The AV referendum is a perfect platform to cause the turmoil desired by the public. Bring it on YES campaign!

This is a Westminster perspective.

In the real world Cameron is much more popular than the Conservative Party (especially among the vast majority of ordinary voters who are affiliated to no party; the people who actually decide elections) and almost certainly will remain so.

If disgruntled Tory MPs (or commentators) damage him, they will cost their party the next general election AV or no AV.

Okay, I am biased on this, but in my opinion, the No2AV campaign’s biggest problem is that none of the arguments against the change really stack up so it is using a scattergun approach to try to get something that sticks.

All the key arguments against AV (cost, BNP winning seats, more coalitions, more broken promises) are nonsensical, hyperbolic and not based on clear evidence (obviously I expect most No2AV supporters to say they dispute this), and the argument that voters just wouldn’t understand it is counter-productive.

Cameron failed to beat the most unpopular incumbent PM in living memory, has been exposed as a liar several times, and with each passing day, resembles a poor facsimile of the master snake oil salesman: Blair.

The Tories are in office *despite* Cameron, not because of him. Does anyone think they wouldn’t have got outright victory if David Davis was their leader.

Like many others, I’ve had enough of centrist, pro-EU leaders. UKIP for me until a true Conservative leads the party. And that means AV is a more attractive proposition.

If it is a choice between David Cameron, and the average Tory MP, I will support Cameron.

Every time there seems to be an argument between them, the MPs sound like a bunch of irresponsible, spoiled, wingeing brats.

Very interesting piece, (mainly because I agree with it) David Cameron should have remembered two things. Never unleash, ‘the law of unforseen consequences’ and, ‘the road to hell is paved with good intentions’

I think the danger is much more immediate than that.

If the yes side win, that’s it. The next election has to be fought under AV. What is there to stop the Lib-Dems immediately collapsing the coalition and causing a new general election? Nothing.

Labour and Lib-Dems end up in the coalition they always wanted and the Tory party is stuffed for three decades – along with the UK.

Actually, having a coalition at present weakens the case for AV. If we just had a majority Tory government voters might yearn for a cosy, moderate government made up of men of goodwill from a variety of parties. Whatever the virtues of the coalition I don’t think voters regard it as a great improvement on one-party rule.

I don’t think the voters have really thought about electoral reform and AV. When they do I think we’ll see the ‘no’ vote increase. The feeling that it is a costly irrelevance to the current problems will grow IMO. I think the electorate are naturally reluctant to vote for a change unless the case is overwhelming: remember, even the 1975 referendum on the EEC was to leave rather than join.

jim – “Where is this poll that has the yes vote leading, most people I know either don’t care or are no voters.”

Surely the point is that whatever the ‘polls’ say, it is surely the people who want a change from FPTP who are more likely to vote, as the apathy/inertia will tend to keep those who want ‘more of the same’ at home ??

That’s just a gut feel, but I really feel that No2AV have to fight a much more positive campaign which says, in effect, that if you want to keep the ability to say “You’re Fired !!” to politicians, then vote NO to AV…

effluent occurs

A very good article. The NO campaign needs to get its act together. The strongest card would be to make it a NO to Clegg vote.

Clegg offers the perfect example of what to expect. After all he is the one who said one thing before the election (about student fees) and did the exact opposite after the election. This will become the norm with AV. Election pledges and manifestos will mean nothing in the haggling that will follow an election – certainly a lot less than they do now.. Politicians will become distrusted even more as compromises are reached to form future coalition governments.

Good point oldtimer. Clegg is the best argument against AV, which is why he’s suddenly done a Gordon and disappeared. Under AV, nobody gets what they voted for, which is surely the least democratic option of all.

I see the David Davis-John Redwood-Adams Family-Vlad the Impaler faction that foisted the woeful IDS on the party have emerged from their coffins to bad mouth Cameron again.

While it’s clear that Cameron didn’t win, he did a whole lot better than would have been the case if some extreme right wing, sell the NHS (privatise the bloodbanks) march out of Europe little Englander faction would have done. That would have seen Brown pull off a surprise victory, voters turned off horrified.

Few enough were persuaded by the middle of the road Cameron that the cuts were necessary at this time, if the lunatics got control of the asylum then it would be dead easy to persuade voters the cuts are ideologically driven rather than economically necessary – hence Labour majority.

Look around guys. Who are you going to get with half of Cameron’s broad electoral appeal or plausibility? Yes he has made mistakes but tossing him overboard is not the answer.

Well I guess among the thick pinstripe brigade ideological purity has always been preferable to common sense. What a gift to Milli Minor!

“I see the David Davis-John Redwood-Adams Family-Vlad the Impaler faction that foisted the woeful IDS on the party have emerged from their coffins to bad mouth Cameron again.”

What a rational argument. Comparing people who aren’t fooled by another ex-PR man to those that support a mass murderer.

Fact: Cameron had as close to an open goal in politics as it’s possible to get. Fact: he blew it. If he’d maintained the lead he had a year ago, he’d be sitting with a comfortable majority.

Major managed a majority. If Cameron’s that good, he should have eclipsed those achievements surely?

No, Cameron is Blair mk 2, and most sensible people recognise this. He says one thing and does another.

Beating Brown should have been simple. People detested Brown. Yet he couldn’t beat him. That’s all you need to know. Recognise that, and maybe the Tories will choose their next leader more wisely…

Tell me then, which Tory-beloved-of-the-nation could have won a majority last time when so many people still did trust them not to do exactly what, in fact, they have done (ie, tear up the NHS, gut defence – remember John Nott? – make ideologically driven not rationally driven public sector cuts, make a decent education unaffordable etc etc etc)?

I voted Tory the last twice (or was it UKIP? I can’t remember) in protest against Blair’s Iraq venture and then to get rid of the fiscally incompetent Brown. That was only possible because Cameron looked like a civilised chap. Someone two goose steps to the right would certainly not have got my vote nor those of many other disgruntled natural Labour voters either.

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ASTA

You are all missing the point. The fact is that when Cameron stated that he was “the heir to Blair” he meant it. Why would a progressive politician, which is what he and his acolytes see themseleves as, not want to be like Blair, the most successsful politician of his generation. Like it or not Cameron is “triangulating” for all he is worth, not wanting to alienate his own party but also not wanting to lose the crucial support of the Lib Dems. The Caolition only happened because no one in the leadership of the Conservatives or the Lib Dems would counternance working with Brown. That was it, that was all that unitedthem. Brown is now, thank the Lord, hsitorty. And without that galvanizing element the Coalition is expose for what it is – an oppurtunistic gang of chancers who have no real clue how to run this country or see it through the worst recession in a hundred years. Ed Miliband is no better, but the Lib Dems need to realise that if they unhitched their wagon from the doomed train of the Coalition they may get more respect and votes than if they carried on with this doomed enterprise.

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SOUPER DAEMOKKERRASS C http://news.sky.com/skynews/Article/201009115935404

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ASTA

History of leaving it late – oh yeah like how old is he and he is now already Prime Minister? Ask Hesletine about leaving it late.

Thatcher had no intention of standing until Joseph threw it away.

Boy you are really desperate for a rebellion. Rebel against who? The public? Are the public of Britain to have less right than the people of Egypt?

The notion that AV is bad for Tories is as spurious as it being good for LibDems.

Oh Mr Martin in case you have forgotten the Tories gained 97 seats at the last election. The only major party to gain any seats. When and who last gained more seats for the tories at an election??

The reason why Brown is hiding in a cave in the Trossocks is he lost thats LOST, 90 seats – name the last time a labour leader this that bad.

Mr ‘insults’ — the ’10 election was against the background of massive financial upheaval expenses scandal and leaders debates. Entirely extraordinary anti-politics atmosphere. Cameron won more seats than any tory leader in modern history – check out the extraordinary circumstances when it last won more.

@Trevors Den – Like you I want to think well of Cameron and to believe that he’s got a handle on events. Increasingly I can’t. Zero political nouse, poor planning, atrocious communications and a complete lack of grip. He’s made too many unforced errors of which the Forest debacle is just the latest. Expect more of the same when libraries start closing. Given the bungled election, if I were a Tory MP, I wouldn’t be waiting until the AV vote is over before confronting Cameron and telling him that unless he gets his act together, he’ll face a leadership challenge.

Collini out.

@duc de: you may have voted Tory because you found Cameron less repulsive than other Tories and you are exactly the sort of person that the Cameroons were aiming for. Unfortunately, they’re weren’t enough of you. There were far more people, especially the aspirant working class who either stuck with the Devil they knew, voted LibDem or simply stayed at home. A more right wing ‘two goose-steps to the right’ as you offensively put it (as though people who believe in freedom from the state are the same as mass murders like Lenin or Hitler) might well have been far more successful. It worked for Mrs Thatcher and for Reagan. Nobody’s tried this approach since 1987, the date of the lady’s last landslide.

Cameron has copied Blair by starting a war with his own party. The trouble is Blair took on his party establishment and thus connected with ordinary members and voters (as Thatcher did). Cameron by contrast is from the party establishment and the more he attacks his own party the more he alienates ordinary voters and why he failed to win. In answer to your question, whilst the self-hating Cameroons might have got your vote virtually anybody else, such as David Davis, would probably have won the election outright.

@uc de montesquieu

If they were goose stepping, it would have to be to the left, as Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini and just about every other mass murdering dictator you care to mention were lefties. Might not be a nice thing to have to accept for you, but it’s true.

Alex, I really shouldn’t rise to the bait but the whole raison d’etre of the pre-war Fascist parties was to oppose Communism. Which is why the middle classes supported them when they should have known better. Dishonours even,extreme left-right, on murderous dictators. I really don’t know why people want to deny this.

I agree with Scary Biscuits that “two goosesteps to the right” is a slur on the more right wing Conservatives, who are just as freedom loving as anyone else. The phrase has a certain ring to it though ….

So David Davis is the Tory messiah? I laughed out loud when I heard that one. (Though I have to admit the goose steps remark doesn’t apply to him). But to my mind comes across as a small, marginal character, like Frank Field or John Redwood. Not PM material.

As to the other point, FF is spot on, though I’ve found it’s pointless arguing with the ‘Hitler was a lefty’ nutcases, their ignorance of history is a badge of pride, it would seem.

I see various other loopy Tories have to be reminded that the Tories won 97 seats at the general election – easily more than any since the war and virtually as many as anytime in its entire existence.

Who was to blame for the horrible defeat in 97? The very loopy backbenchers and their ilk who rant on now. Spare me you useless loopy bar-stewards you have as much political nous as my granddaughters pet sock.

Great article. I thought the main concern with election machines would be the opportunity for fraudsters to take advantage?

Trevors Den asks “Who was to blame for the horrible defeat in 97?” Daniel Finkelstein and his SDP gang.

What Sue Collini said!

Everyone’s also forgetting that in May 2010 there were one million UKIP voters and two million Tories who abstained completely because they couldn’t stomach Dave’s wishy washy approach to life but didn’t want to give their FPTP vote to UKIP. Add thse to many tory voters who could just about stomach Dave’s limp wristed conservativism and you have many millions of people who will not be giving their 2nd choice voe to the LibDems but the so called “right wing” in UKIP.

We might not be looking at a Tory-LibDem coalition next time but a Tory UKIP one. Imagine how that would get lefty knickers in a twist.

In terms of votes cast and share of the vote, the tories actually thrashed labour. The tories inflicted a much bigger defeat on labour in 2010, than labour inflicted on the tories in 2005. In 2010, labour polled worse than John Major’s hated tories did in 1997. IN 2010, Cameron’s tories polled better than Tony Blair’s labour in 2005.

So under a FPTP system which is supposed to increase the winning party’s lead to ensure solid, one party rule, why couldn’t this numbers give Cameron a win in seats, which matched the massive win in votes?

This country voted more strongly in favour of a conservative majority in 2010, than it did in favour of a labour one in 2005.

This country voted more strongly against labour in 2010 than it did against the tories in 1997.

How come we haven’t got a landslide tory victory? The gerrymandered, rigged, seating boundaries which gift labour a 10% lead in seats before a single vote is counted.

“We might not be looking at a Tory-LibDem coalition next time but a Tory UKIP one. Imagine how that would get lefty knickers in a twist.”

I cannot imagine Cameron ever agreeing to a coalition with UKIP. He is ideologically closer to labour than to UKIP.

All you people trumpeting Cameron’s great achievement in winning so many seats are missing the point entirely.

The tories got so many seat because people were fed up of Labour’s incompetence and Brown was the most unpopular incumbent PM in living memory.

In other words, the Conservatives won because Labour were so poor, not because Cameron was any good.

Mr Hall,

In terms of total votes, Labour’s defeat was on a scale equal to that of 1983. Looking at the LibDems score, we see they actually didn’t manage to improve at all over the past 27 years. The difference lies with the Tories. Instead of acheiving a massive landslide with 13 million + votes they failed to get 11.

One million, eurosceptic (and probably hardline tory) voters ticked UKIP’s box. Another two million simply abstained, largely, I suspect, because they couldn’t stomach giving Dave’s Blairite, third way approach their approval. In return all he got was less than a million voters attracted by his determination to capture the middle ground. I don’t know about you, but spending three million to get one, doesn’t make much sense to me. Compared to the Thatcher/Major years, when the average Tory vote was 13.6 million, it doesn’t look like a massive gain in votes either.

As to your comment about Cameron never agreeing to join UKIP in a coalition – he’s a senior politician. In other words, he has the moral compass of a whore* and will follow whatever route gives him power. If that means letting UKIP join the cabinet, he’ll do it. Especially if he knows his MPs will revolt if he does anything else.

*Actually, I take that back; I suspect whores have a much stronger moral compass than most senior politicians.

Sorry, that last comment should have gone under my name.

” * Weygand wrote:

This is a Westminster perspective.

In the real world Cameron is much more popular than the Conservative Party (especially among the vast majority of ordinary voters who are affiliated to no party; the people who actually decide elections) and almost certainly will remain so.”

See why you chose the moniker of a failed French general,,,,,,,,,Cameron is ignored in most of the country and treated as a joke in The North. He is the epitome of “Same Old Tories” and “The Tories are back” in a sort of Nightmare on Elm Street sort of way. It could have been so very different but Cameron cannot escape the fact that he has NO life experience and has never experienced consequences for actions.

All that is about to change. He is awakening The Kraken

duc de montesquieu wrote: I see the David Davis-John Redwood-Adams Family-Vlad the Impaler faction that foisted the woeful IDS on the party have emerged from their coffins to bad mouth Cameron again.

I’m assuming that’d be the same “Vlad the Impaler Faction” whose three million supporters failed to give Dave the 13 million+ tally and outright majority he should have got given the dire position of Labour and the failure of the LibDems to secure any noticable increase in votes. Yeah, ditching them to to win the temporary support of one million indecisive floaing voters in the middle ground really makes sense – if you live in Lalaland.

Anonymous:

Marching off to some right wing comfort zone of ideological purity is all very well, but your arithmetic as well as your logic of why the missing 3m didn’t vote Tory to see off a Labour party that on your characterisation they should have detested is a total nonsense and a gift to Milli & Balls.

“Marching off to some right wing comfort zone of ideological purity”

That’s Cameron’s problem. Ideological rigidity and inflexibility – dismembering the military, raising taxes significantly, selling off public assets to “friends”, putting City interests above those of the public, and failing to regulate utilities or banks as they extort money from voters. Thr extreme right-wing comofort zone seems to be in Cameron-Osborne’s half-baked resurrection of Heath’s Selsdon Man

So dinosaur tory mps bring down the coalition because they lost the referendum causing an unnecessary general election and expect to be re elected under FPTP by a grateful eletorate. If all Dave’s tory critics are that thick he could outlast Mubarake!

Mr Martin, again you give the UK a masterly analysis, the like of which is wholly absent from our news media. But why should there be one No campaign, where is the twitter, You Tube youth type campaign, costing nothing, getting at Clegg? A few thousand quid could get a Vote No If you don’t trust Clegg going viral.

I now do not think any Tory MPs have the guts or gumption to threaten Cameron: they are a bunch of posers, unprinpncipled people who have submitted to being humiliated by Cameron and told told to vote for what they opposed in the election. That is the one flaw in your argument.

Yes “Beyond getting rid of Gordon Brown the Tories had little aimed at hard-working apsirational voters worried about tax, crime and opportunity. In sum, it was unclear what Cameron’s Tories were all about”; and how can Mr Nick Herbert say in sickly hypocritical tones that the NO campagin cannot possibly go at Clegg, it would make voters feel the campaign had no principles? He was happy to assassinate Brown in the election as the sole message!

Sad sad days to democracy in the UK – as the Arabs demand it, we give it away to the EU, judges, and now to alliances of political parties who will take our votes and melt them down for a debased currency clean contrary to what we voted for.. Cameron has proved utterly toxic to the national good.

duc de montesquieu

Why is the arithmatic and logic missing?

Labour lost on a scale equivalent to anything it experienced in the 1980′s and early 90′s. (8 million votes and change). The Lib Dems pretty much achieved what their Liberal and SDP progenitors got during the same period. But what did the Tories achieve? Certainly not the 13 million plus votes Mrs T or even John Major routinely managed to win and what they should have gotten given the degree to which NuLabour was hated and the LibDems disregarded. The reality is Dave’s Kumbayah Conservatives only managed to secure the votes of a measly 10 million people plus change.

I’ll admit to rounding the numbers, but three million isn’t a bad estimate for the number of “missing” tory votes, so the arithmatic ain’t off.

As for the analysis, well, the 1 million UKIP voters (rounded again, but close) are fact. UKIP didn’t exist in the 80′s or the nineties, but it’s pretty safe to say most of that party’s voters are former Tory supporters. As for the other two million? Well, it looks like they voted for Maggie, but not Dave, so where could they have gone? My guess, based on the evidence, is that they have a more starboard, rather than portside, list and couldn’t stomach voting for BluLabour. Unable to trust or rate UKIP, it looks like they simply stayed at home.

In other words, Dave’s guitar strumming, dippy hippy, kumbayah singing brand of conservatism, if one can call it that, turned off three million voters and cost him the election.

Instead of simply chucking unsupported opinions around, it’s now your turn to use evidence and reason to argue your point of view.

YES , WE CAN…YES , WE CAN…WE WILL WIN IN WAR ON TERROR (30 whities or what are terrorists will never come back alive…thank you lord….aaamen).

What do you mean tragedy! It was just a birthday present for planet apes president !!! That’s all ! Feels great to flip hamburgers and hip hop atop of good news…makes you feel vibrant and energized !!!

ARIZONA = UTOYA = GOVERNMENT‘S “AFTERLIFE” CASH & $$ FLASH MOB (there was no shooting in Utoya or Arizona, but tear gas and theater instead on faces of multiculturalism maniacs..your guilt or blame and shame weapon against us and our families in our own countries atop of forceful unemployment during so called “ECONOMIC CRISES” during which third world foreigners are allowed to rape, kill, and still is nothing else but fast way to early retirements for government related criminals/ terrorists…$$$ extra bonuses, and newly issued state identities while calling you a terrorists) !!!

GOOGLE stateofterror.blogspot.com/ OR stateofterror.wordpress.com/

Whitie is fighting war on terrorism just to come home and be pronounced as terrorist…turned in Timothy, jobless, homeless …YESSS, WE CAN…YESSS, WE CAN…GABBY OPENED HER EYES (Obaminator’s psychotic speech in Tucson = failed “Apocalypse Now“)

WAKE-UP !!! WAKE UP PEOPLE BEFORE IT GETS ALL TO LATE ON PLANET APES !!! TEARS WON’T DO YOU ANY GOOD !!! AS BUSH STATED “THAT’S WHAT THEY ARE PAID FOR”(to die ) !!

EVEN IF IRAQ WOULD HAVE BEEN WAR FOR OIL ONLY, VETERANS WOULDN’T NEVER EVER HAVE TO BE HOMELESS PEOPLE THE WAY THEY ARE AND NOR WOULD OUR PEOPLE HAVE TO DIE ALLOVER THE PLACE THE WAY THEY DO TO VERY TODAY(never ending “war on terror” story). BECAUSE EVEN IF WAR WAS FOR THE SAKE OF MONEY, MONEY SHOULD BE USED FOR AMERICAN CITIZENS AND NOT WHAT THE CASE IS OR AGAINST WHITES(to destroy us allover the world) !!! You don’t really proof for 911, just put your sht together in your heads…THIS IS PLENTY ENOUGH TO HAVE O(B)SAMA INDICTED FOR CRIMES COMMITTED AGAINST WHITE AMERICAN HUMANITY TOGETHER WITH HIS ZIONIST MASTERS) !!!

Don’t worry O(s)bama, you have just saved USA what is lots of Dollars in your DEBT DEALS as those best of America or Navy Seals would also grew older and then you already know how it goes…DEAD & ILL = DEBT DEAL !!!

HOW MUCH FURTHER ARE WE WILLING TO GO IN ORDER TO PLEASE VERY SAME PEOPLE WHO DENY US EVEN THE RIGHT TO EXISTENCE(what is to you country without laws or lawless country in respect to your personal rights, but the one that in contrast to your denied basic human rights recognizes you extremely liable when payments are due) !!?

IS IT INDEPENDENCE THAT WE CELEBRATE OR DEPENDENCE (what are your credit card bills or alimony saying about it) !!? HOW IS YOUR DIABETES AND LOST MARRIAGES !!? FORECLOSURES AND JOB SEARCH !!? THAT IS THE QUESTION TO BE OR NOT TO BE !!! IS IT LAND OF THE FREE OR STATE OF TERROR AGAINST OWN POPULATION !!? IT IS TIME TO LET THEM KNOW WHAT COLOR ARE THE STRIPES ON OUR STAR SPANGLED BANNER !!! TIME TO DETERMINE WHOSE INDEPENDENCE/AMERICA, WE CELEBRATE TODAY(who wants to erase us and denies us the right to exist) !!! IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHOM WE ADDRESS WITH “PRESIDENT” (STOP HUMILIATING YOURSELF) !!!

VOTING POLL:

DO WE NEED MORE PROOFS TO INDICT OBAMA AND BUSH ADMINISTRATION FOR CRIMES COMMITTED AGAINST WHITE HUMANITY !!?

1)NO, THEY ARE CLEARLY GUILTY AS OIL WAR NEVER EVER WAS REAL ISSUE IN GENOCIDE AGAINST WHITES. REAL ISSUE ARE FACTS OR WHAT WE WITNESS TODAY WHEN VETERANS ARE HOMELESS, JOBLESS, KILLED, ETC.

2)NO, AS 911 ALONE AS WELL AS ACTIONS IMPOSED AGAINST WHITES IN USA (as well worldwide) ARE CLEARLY INDICATING ACTS OF GENOCIDE AGAINST WHITE HUMANITY

3)YESS AS JUST YESTERDAY(for over 15 years to very yesterday), WE (news/media = vacuum world of lies) WERE TELLING YOU THAT UNEMPLOYMENT WAS AT 10% WHILE TODAY ONE IS AT 50% (HOW COME NO ONE QUESTION JOURNALISM LIKE THIS OR WHAT IS WORLD OF LIES AND DEMENTIA)!

4)I AGREE WITH FIRST TWO ANSWERS ABOVE. IT IS TIME TO PRESS CRIMINAL CHARGES AGAINST BOTH ADMINISTRATIONS DUE TO ACTS OF GENOCIDE AGAINST WHITE HUMANITY FOR THE SAKE(SAFETY) OF US AND OUR CHILDREN(DO NOT TURN THEM IN WHITE REFUGEES ON PLANET APES OR WHAT YOU ARE ABOUT TO SEE WHEN VISITING ABOVE PAGES) !!!