Can US aid improve Egypt’s ‘opaque, non-inclusive’ transition?

The United States will provide $150 million to assist Egypt’s democratic transition, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said today.

“It’s very clear that there’s a great deal of work ahead to ensure an orderly, democratic transition,” she said. “These funds will give us flexibility to respond to Egyptian needs moving forward.”

She announced that Under Secretary of State William Burns [READ MORE]

Resilient Green movement vs. fragile regime – or vice versa?

Iran’s Green movement has called for another round of protests on Sunday in an effort to maintain the momentum of this week’s demonstrations against the Islamic Republic.

Former prime minister and 2009 presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi (left) called on Iranians to demonstrate on the [READ MORE]

February 16, 2011 in Egypt, Middle East and North Africa 1

Egypt’s divided democrats an obstacle to transition

Egypt’s ruling military council will lift the current emergency law ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections later this year, meeting a key demand of democratic opposition groups.

But the experience of previous democratic transitions confirms that “there is a long and often treacherous distance between the demise of an authoritarian regime and the rise of a democracy,” [READ MORE]

Old guard v. new order: Tunisia today, Egypt tomorrow?

As Egypt embarks upon its transition process, Tunisia is a little further down the road and its experience offers grounds for both optimism and caution.

“Tunisia will be a test case for the Arab world,” said Mohsen Marzouk (left), the Tunisian head of the Arab Democracy Foundation. “Success [READ MORE]

From Farouk to Facebook: Cassandra in Cairo

King Farouk was still on the throne when historian and political commentator Walter Laqueur (left) first visited Egypt, but the fundamentals seem familiar. While the Muslim Brotherhood is a long term threat to democracy, he argues, the main danger lies in the economy’s inability to meet the needs of a rapidly [READ MORE]

Muslim Brotherhood to form political party

While some are lauding virtual networks as the future of politics, others are getting down to business.

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood today announced that it plans to form a political party but insisted that it would not field a candidate in the forthcoming presidential election.

The Islamist group announced that “once an official legitimate committee has been formed, it [READ MORE]

The Facebook fallacy: no substitute for organization

If Egypt is undergoing a political transition rather than a Romania-style restoration of the old order, ensuring a process that maintains the momentum of reform without rushing to elections that empower illiberal forces will partly depend in part on the democratic opposition’s political strategy and organizational strength.

And that is a cause for concern.

“The [legal] opposition is not organized; [READ MORE]

February 15, 2011 in Egypt, Middle East and North Africa 0

Egypt: democratic reform or authoritarian adaptation?

The US administration supports the democratic ambition evident in the wave of unrest spreading across the Arab world, President Barack Obama said today, but change must be driven by local actors and circumstances.

“Your aspirations for greater opportunity, for your ability to speak your mind, for a free press — those are absolutely aspirations we support,” he said, addressing [READ MORE]

Transition designed to squeeze Egypt’s democratic center?

Egypt’s Supreme Military Council has given a newly-appointed panel of experts 10 days to propose a series of constitutional amendments which will then be put to a referendum within two months.

The military appointed Tarek al-Beshry, a moderate Islamist intellectual and former judge, to head the constitutional committee, which also includes three constitutional law experts, three judges, and Sobhy [READ MORE]

Sudan: confounding the pessimists

Despite recent violent clashes, Sudan’s referendum on self-determination for the country’s south has been remarkably peaceful. Some commentators were predicting genocidal levels of violence, but reconciliation initiatives by civil society and pro-democracy groups have paid dividends in confounding the pessimists. Credit is also due to local political leaders and diplomatic statecraft, writes Dave Peterson, [READ MORE]

Egypt’s transitional options – a familiar playbook

Egypt’s military council has appointed a retired judge, respected for his integrity, to head a constitutional review committee. Tareq al-Bishry (right) was a forceful advocate of an independent judiciary during former President Hosni Mubarak’s rule.

Constitutional amendments could be drafted and put to a referendum within a “general time-frame” of [READ MORE]

Premature ‘window-shopping’ for transition models?

With the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak and the assumption of power by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, it remains unclear whether Egypt has taken the first step towards a democratic transition or witnessed the de facto consolidation of authoritarian rule.

It is “far from assured” that Egypt’s revolution will lead to a genuine pluralist democracy, writes [READ MORE]

Iran’s lesson for Egypt: the ‘sinister effects’ of ‘good intentions’

Egypt’s democratic forces should heed the errors of their Iranian counterparts from 1979, writes Roya Hakakian.

Overthrowing the autocrat is the easy part: the real challenge and threat may come from allies whose vision turns out to be not quite as benign and democratic as you thought:

The first misstep of the Iranian secular movement came as early as 1978, [READ MORE]

Tunisia, Egypt… Iran?

Iranian pro-democracy protesters took the streets in vast numbers today to express solidarity with the recent uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt.

In Tehran, the opposition Green movement mobilized hundreds of thousands (350,000 by one account – others suggest closer to 30,000) for what in any case amounts to its biggest rally for over a [READ MORE]

February 12, 2011 in Egypt, Middle East and North Africa 0

Egypt’s military ‘will not embrace democracy’

Egypt’s pro-democracy movement has won a major victory – or has it?

Mubarak has gone, and the military has stepped in – as many protesters were demanding. But could this yet be a case of be careful what you wish for?

It remains to be seen whether the armed forces intend to follow the Turkish example and act as guarantors of a [READ MORE]