On Wednesday, the Middle East Institute hosted an event focused on the public opinions of Egyptians in the wake of Mubarak’s fall from power, entitled, “After Mubarak: What do the Egyptian People Really Want?”The Middle East Institute hosted two speakers; Steven Kull, Middle East public opinion expert and director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, along with, Shibley Telhami, the Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Saban Center of the Brookings Institution.
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Following the Bahraini security forces’ attack on sleeping protesters in Lulu Square, U.S. officials are calling for a re-examination of aid to Bahrain and an investigation to determine whether U.S. aid was used in the attack. Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT), chairman of the Senate State and Foreign Operations Appropriations Subcommittee, “has asked State officials…to identify the equipment and units involved in the attacks,” Leahy’s spokesman David CarletoldPOLITICO Thursday. Under the “Leahy Law,” aid will be cut off to any forces determined to have perpetrated human rights abuses; the United States gives aid to the Bahraini military.
Senator John Kerry (D-MA) stated: “Using tear gas, batons, and rubber bullets on peaceful protestors is the worst kind of response to a nonviolent demonstration… I urge the government of Bahrain to put an end to the violence and allow the Bahrainis to voice their call for greater political freedom.” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged restraint in a Thursday phone call with her Bahraini counterpart, Foreign Minister Sheikh Khaled bin Ahmad al-Khalifa , she said: “The United States strongly opposes the use of violence and strongly supports reform that moves toward democratic institution building and economic openness.”
Toby C. Jones, writing at Foreign Policy, states that, “Bahrain is burning,” in response to the recent violent repression of protesters by Bahraini police and military officials. Jones states: “Bahrain’s rulers and their mercenaries have laid siege to their own country.” The protesters he has met with remain resolute in their non-violent goals by “emulating the example of their fellow democracy activists elsewhere in the Middle East” even in the face of a repressive security apparatus, he says. The recent events in the Bahrain have elicited a strong response from Gulf neighbors, according to Jones, including rumors that Saudi Arabia is not only strongly supporting the violent crackdown, but has also sent tactical equipment and personnel support. Amidst claims from the Bahraini government that this is a Shi’a plot with Iranian support to disrupt the gulf, Jones asserts: “For Bahrainis and for other citizens in the Gulf, this moment is not about sectarian politics, score settling against Sunnis, or advancing Iran’s interests. It is about justice, democracy and political rights.”
Nick Kristof of The New York Times and Middle East analyst Emile Hokayem are tweeting from Bahrain that the army has opened fire with live ammunition on peaceful protests taking place in Manama. Kristof reports that tear gas has also been fired at protesters who have gathered outside of a hospital where wounded protesters are being treated.
Paul Richter, writing in the Los Angeles Times, reports that the Obama administration is concerned that the Egyptian military’s plans to reshape the government “may fall short of producing its promised democratic overhaul” given the military leadership’s failure to lift the emergency law and dismiss the old cabinet, as well as its condensed schedule for constitutional reform and elections which may not provide enough time for political parties to organize. While the army is a respected institution that safeguards stability, it is more inclined toward the status quo and protecting its commercial interests, Richter writes. Egypt’s protest movement also seems worried by the army’s increased authority. POMED Executive Director Stephen McInerney, who has served as an informal advisor to the White House and has been in regular contact with Egyptian groups and activists states, “Groups that have been skeptical are becoming a little bit more skeptical” and that the administration is ”clearly pleased with some steps, and want to be supportive publicly. But they do have concerns.” The administration has been privately applying “friendly but steady pressure” on Egyptian leaders to ensure the transition does not lose momentum and that promises to make irreversible changes towards democracy are upheld.
As the debate continues this week in the House of Representatives on proposed budget cuts, including those to State and Foreign Operations, Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL) and other senatorsare “looking to add a generous foreign aid package for Israel, Egypt, Jordan, and other Middle Eastern countries.” In an interview at The Cable in Foreign Policy, Kirk stated, “A [continuing resolution] that had full year funding for the troops plus an Egypt, Israel, and Middle East stability package of full year funding would send the right signal from the United States.” Kirk states that senators on both sides of the aisle support the initiative which would “fully fund foreign aid accounts for a host of countries in the region at the level requested by the president and pay for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as well.”
Congressman Howard Berman (D-CA) the ranking Democrat on the House of Foreign Affairs Committee also supports the proposed plan including increased aid for U.S.-based organizations that promote civil society in Egypt such as the National Democratic Institute, the International Republican Institute, the National Endowment for Democracy, and the State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor.
Speaking on CBS’s Face the Nation this Sunday, Egyptian activist and Nobel Laureate Ahmed Zewailexpressed his optimism for a rapid democratic transition in Egypt with elections possibly taking place by this summer. He also called for the immediate lifting of the emergency law. Responding to the demand, Egyptian Ambassador to the United States, Sameh Shoukry stated: “The Supreme Council has indicated its commitment to lifting the state of emergency. And I believe they will do so as soon as the conditions are appropriate.” When asked about protesters demands for the dissolution of the cabinet, Shoukry responded by stating that given the current economic and security situation the dissolution of the cabinet is difficult.
U.S. Senator John McCain, also speaking on Face the Nation, stated that “We should have seen this coming when the Egyptian government failed to move forward with a process of democratization. The last election was particularly flawed.” He also criticized President Barack Obama for failing to take a stance against Iran during protests in 2009. McCain cautions that elections are not the end of the story in Egypt, “It is the modalities. It is the education of voters. It’s all the things that go to a free ad fair elections” which will need to be addressed especially to prevent any “extremist element” from hijacking the election. McCain also stated, “this revolution is a direct repudiation of al Qaeda” and expressed concern that similar demonstrations in Iran and Syria will face severe government crackdown. He called on Iranians to “let your people have peaceful demonstrations” and expressed his optimism over the spread of democratic revolution throughout the Middle East.
In a televised statement on Sunday, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces announced that it will suspend the constitution and dissolve the parliament in order to pave the way for new presidential and parliamentary elections in the future. The communique also stated that the Supreme Council would maintain control of the government for a six-month interim period, during which the head of the council, Mohamed Tantawi, would represent Egypt both domestically and internationally. In the short-term, the council has approved a committee for assessment of constitutional amendments. The council has called on all workers’ unions and professional groups to return to work so as not to further damage the country and warned that anyone attempting to cause Egypt to fall into “chaos and disorder” will not be tolerated.
The group also met with representatives from youth groups responsible for planning the January 25th revolution, including Wael Ghonim. During the meeting, the council stated a new constitution would be drafted in ten days to be put forth a referendum within two months. While youth groups have expressed their optimism, they also cautioned that its too early to judge whether the military will follow through on its guarantees to establish true democratic reforms, especially given its refusal to dissolve the current cabinet and the generals’ decision to announce their road map for political reform without any input from the political opposition. On Monday, the “Coalition of Youth Revolutionaries” called on the military to dismiss the cabinet and form a new “government of technocrats” within one month.
Rebels loyal to Lieutenant General George Athor, who split from the south Sudanese army last year, attacked a base in Jonglei state in south Sudan last week. According to south Sudanese military spokesman Colonel Phillip Aguer, rebels also attacked two towns in Upper Nile state as well. The total number of people killed in the violence is estimated to be 105 people, including 39 civilians. This comes on the heels of violence last month in Upper Nile state that killed 54 people. Alan Boswell, writing for Time, states that there have been other rebellions against the SPLA (Sudan People’s Liberation Army) over the past year based along tribal lines of conflict. Boswell warns that such tribal politics will probably dominate South Sudan’s new government and may lead to more violence.
Al Ahram reports that Mubarak’sspeech on Thursday was formulated against the wishes of the armed forces, and away from their oversight according to a former senior official of Egypt’s General Intelligence, Maj. Gen. Safwat El-Zayat. He stated that Omar Suleiman’s speech was equally in defiance of the military. Many speculate that this apparent divide between the military and the rulers of the country could have led to Mubarak’s departure today.
In the latest push to force democratic changes in Egypt, mass protests have been held across the country as activists call for millions to take to streets. Tens of thousands have gathered in front of the Presidential Palace, the state tv headquarters and in Tahrir Square. The Egyptian Army released a statement midday promising to uphold the calls made to end the emergency law, make constitutional changes, hold free and fair elections and protect the nation; but not until the current unrest ceases. Tens of thousands of protesters have also surrounded government buildings in Suez and the Telegraphreports that Hosni Mubarak has left Cairo for his residence in Sharm El-Sheikh. Opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei tweeted: “Entire nation is on the streets. Only way out is for regime to go. People power can’t be crushed. We shall prevail. Still hope army can join.” Contacts in Cairo state that ElBaradei has drafted a declaration of a new Egyptian constitution that he is circulating among the opposition and that he will release soon – while he planned to release it today (Friday), it may not be released until tomorrow.
On Thursday, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in partnership with the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED) hosted a discussion on the rapidly evolving crisis in Egypt. Michele Dunne, Senior Associate in the Middle East Program at Carnegie Endowment moderated the event and introduced the panelists: Amr Hamzawy, Research Director and Senior Associate of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut who joined the panelists from Midan Tahrir in Cairo; Bahey al-Din Hassan, director of the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies; and Neil Hicks, advisor to Human Rights First.
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Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee John Kerry (D-MA) and Senator John McCain have cosponsored a resolution calling on Egypt President Hosni Mubarak to “immediately begin an orderly and peaceful transition to a democratic political system,” including “the transfer of power to an inclusive interim caretaker government in coordination with leaders from Egypt’s opposition, civil society and military.” While they hope that Egypt will “hold free, fair, and internationally credible elections this year,” they also expressed their “concern over any organization that espouses an extremist ideology, including the Muslim Brotherhood.” They also noted that it is vitally important that any new government continue “to fulfill its international obligations, including commitments under the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty.”
On Wednesday, McCain also released a statement calling for Mubarak’s resignation: “The rapidly deteriorating situation in Egypt leads me to the conclusion that President Mubarak needs to step down and relinquish power…I urge President Mubarak to transfer power to a caretaker administration that includes members of Egypt’s military, government, civil society, and pro-democracy opposition, which can lead the country to free, fair, and internationally credible elections this year as part of a real transition to democracy.” While he remained concerned about the role of the Muslim Brotherhood, he stated that “Egypt must have a democratic future. It is the will of the Egyptian people. It is in the interest of the United States. And the greatest contribution that President Mubarak can make to the cause of democracy in his country is to remove himself from power.”
Press Secretary Robert Gibbsreleased a statement on Wednesday stating, “the United States deplores and condemns the violence in Egypt.” He also expressed that the US is “deeply concerned” with the events that took place in Tahrir Square today. Al Jazeera spoke with its Washington correspondent who reported that it remains unclear what the Obama Administration will do next, but proposed that President Obama could decide to withold military aid if the Egyptian military does not work to prevent violence on the streets of Cairo.
U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moonsaid he was “deeply concerned” by the violence and urged restraint from all sides and that the U.N. has been warning about the need for change in the Arab world for a decade. He condemned attacks on peaceful protesters as unacceptable and reiterated the need for a peaceful and orderly transition to begin “without delay.” British Prime Minister David Cameron called the events “despicable” and called for reforms to take place in Egypt immediately. He went on to warn: “If it turns out that the regime in any way has been sponsoring or tolerating this violence, that would be completely and utterly unacceptable.” Baroness Catherine Ashton, the E.U.’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, called on Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to transition to elections as quickly as possible.
Protests continued on Wednesday for the 9th day in Tahrir Square in Cairo and around the country. These protests continue amidst promises from the opposition to continue protesting until Mubarak steps down. Mubarak supporters have also taken to the streets and have been seen clashing with opposition protesters. Al Jazeera reports that the opposition protesters are calling on the military to protect them from pro-Mubarak protesters who are attempting to enter Tahrir Square. A military spokesman, addressed the nation on state television calling for an end to protests and a return to normalcy, stating: “The army forces are calling on you. You began by going out to express your demands and you are the ones capable of restoring normal life.” Partial internet service has also been restored in Egypt.
Pro-Mubarak protesters, this man shows off his knife to the camera.
Writing at Democracy Arsenal, Joel Rubin discusses possible scenarios that could play out, as a result of the protests in Egypt. First, he states that Gamal Mubarak’s political ambitions have been effectively curtailed, given protesters clear resentment of the National Democratic Party and the fact that the “military didn’t want him.” His “crony friends,” Rubin says, are also on their way out of the country. Rubin also argues that Mubarak’s biggest concession, of making Omar Suleiman vice president, will likely mean a crackdown on Islamists and states that the future loyalty of the Army remains unclear. Given that the Army is our closest ally in Egypt after Mubarak, it may be very good for the U.S., but its independence from the Egyptian government and economy may cost us as we strive to keep the peace and stability in the country. And while Congress “has the power of the purse,” voting to cut funding to Egypt will “eliminate rapidly dissipating American influence in Egypt,” especially given that the military is “the only respected institution in that country — and one that we know well — and likely the one that will be central to it for years to come.”
Rubin also states that the chaos in Cairo will “beget repression elsewhere in the region.” Regimes in the region will likely follow the Iranian model, where government crackdown “snuffed out the Green Movement,” which will undoubtedly have negative repercussions for the U.S.’s reputation abroad. Rubin also argues, that Israel will likely withdraw support for the Middle East peace as they are scared “to take any more risks anytime soon on a peace deal with another Arab autocrat.”