February 3rd, 2011 by Alec

In an opinion piece for The New Republic, Thomas Carothers argues that those who compare the situation in Egypt to Iran in 1979 are making a “dangerously misleading” comparison.  He claims that Egypt is more analogous to Indonesia after President Suharto stepped down in 1998.  Carothers argues that the Muslim Brotherhood is “significantly different” from the Islamist movement of Ayatollah Khomeini as it has renounced violence, undergone decades of moderation, and lacks a charismatic central leader like Khomeini: “Egypt is not ripe for a radical Islamist revolution.”  While admitting it is not a perfect analogy, the economic and social situation in Egypt more closely mirrors that of Indonesia than it does Iran: “[…] from its newly assertive mix of idealistic young protestors, civic groups, and political opposition parties to its longstanding effort to balance secular and Islamist values […] Indonesia’s democratization offers some hope for Egypt.”  Shadi Hamid, writing in Slate, says the the U.S. has an “Islamist dilemma” that paralyzes American policy in the Middle East.  He echoes Carothers sentiments that, “the [Muslim] Brotherhood of today is not the Brotherhood of yesterday.”  Hamid says that the U.S. can deal with the group through “creative policymaking” and calls for the U.S. to begin a substantive dialogue with them: “It is always better to have leverage with opposition groups before they come to power, rather than afterward. Afterward is, often, too late.”

Posted in Democracy Promotion, Egypt, Iran, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Islam, Protests, US foreign policy |