November 12th, 2009 by Jason

Haaretz reports that President Mahmoud Abbas will likely accept a recommendation to delay elections currently scheduled for January. The head of the Palestinian Central Elections Commission confirmed that they told Abbas “we cannot have elections at the time he scheduled them,” especially because of Hamas’ refusal to participate. However, there are no signs Abbas will give in to American pressure to resume peace talks with Israel without a full settlement freeze. Abbas’ threat to resign was a major point of discussion between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu in a long one-on-one meeting this week.

In Forward Magazine, Yossi Beilin believes the resignation threat, explaining Abbas “never much liked power, never liked being president, and he eagerly awaits the day to leave his job.” Beilin admits that Israel and the U.S. have “really never helped him” and deserve partial blame. Finally, he suggests that Marwan Barghouti would be the most likely successor, however he currently remains locked up in Israeli prison.  Also writing for Forward, J.J. Goldberg relays a recent Haaretz article that suggested Prime Minister Salam Fayyad’s plan to create a de facto Palestinian statealso includes a secret provision for a unilateral declaration of statehood. Goldberg goes on to explore the responses of Netanyahu and Obama, as well as Fatah leaders who are concerned Fayyad might attempt to usurp Abbas.

In Middle East Online, Sami Moubayed blames President Obama for transforming Abbas “into an international embarrassment for the Palestinians.” The decision by Abbas to not seek another term represents “his final battle with Hamas,” who have tried to present themselves as the alternative partner for peace. However, if Fatah nominates a “young, nationalistic and charismatic candidate,” then Hamas will be in trouble. For that reason, they would like to keep Abbas in power because they believe they can win against him in an election.

Bitterlemons has conducted dual interviews of Hamas and Fatah members concerning Palestinian reconciliation. According to Fatah member Sufyan Abu Zaida, Egypt must continue mediation efforts. While Abu Zaid doubts Hamas will eventually sign a deal or if there will actually be elections in January, he does give credence to Abbas’ threat of resignation. If Abbas does resign, he expects “the collapse of the Palestinian Authority and the entire Palestinian political system established after Oslo.” Meanwhile,  Hamas member Mahmoud al-Ramahi explains that Hamas refused to sign a deal because of several last minute amendments added by Egypt concerning the composition of an elections committee, compensation for torture victims and the unemployed and finally the release of political prisoners. Al-Ramahi accuses the U.S. of interfering during negotiations because it “wants elections but wants to ensure that the outcome favors Fateh.” Nonetheless, al-Ramahi remains optimistic that a deal can be achieved within the next few months.

Also at Bitterlemons, Gamal A.G. Soltan discusses Egypt’s mediation efforts, contending “the only thing that matches Egypt’s persistence is Hamas’ reluctance to accept any sort of compromise.” He emphasizes the importance of “reminding Hamas that the semi-state it currently controls is neither acceptable nor legitimate.” Finally, Egypt must resist the temptation to give up on negotiations because “cutting Hamas off is only likely to force the organization deeper into the hands of the rejectionists.”  While now both Egypt and Syria have an interest in mediating a Palestinian reconciliation deal (and take the credit), Zvi Bar’el argues “the bigger dilemma is whether or not such a reconciliation deal can last” and whether the West will recognize a unity government that includes Hamas.

Finally, Nathan Brown explains that “to regard [the PA’s] moldy remains as the germ of a Palestinian state ignores the unhealthy dose of antibiotics that Israelis, Americans, and Palestinians themselves have administered to the Palestinian national movement.” Brown urges the Obama administration to reconsider the basic assumptions of the American approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and suggests several guiding principles, including: the policy of ‘West Bank First’ has failed; Palestinians have domestic politics too; the importance of Gaza; long-term solutions for Hamas; the importance of the settlements issue; and the need to take advantage of the current lull in violence.

Posted in Arab League, Diplomacy, EU, Egypt, Elections, Foreign Aid, Hamas, Israel, Mideast Peace Plan, Palestine, Political Islam, Political Parties, US foreign policy, United Nations |