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Iranian arms aid 'visible' in Basra

Don't exclude al-Sadr

By Mohamad Bazzi
April 24, 2008

BEIRUT.

The Iraqi government is about to make a major mistake: excluding Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr from the political process.

On April 13, the Iraqi government approved a draft law barring any political party with a militia from participating in provincial elections set for October. While Sheik al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army were not specifically mentioned in the legislation, they are the intended target. Other Iraqi parties operate militias, but they have been largely absorbed into the Iraqi army or security forces. The bill is now before the Iraqi parliament.

The consequences of trying to isolate Sheik al-Sadr and his political movement are profound: He will lash out further at the Iraqi government and U.S. troops, his supporters will completely abandon the ceasefire he imposed last August and violence will spiral out of control once again. U.S. commanders credit Sheik al-Sadr's ceasefire with a significant drop in both attacks on U.S. forces and sectarian bloodletting. Those highly touted gains made during the surge of U.S. troops will evaporate.

In singling out the Sadrists, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is not trying to restore order. He wants to eliminate a political rival. In the process, he risks escalating an intra-Shi'ite civil war in oil-rich southern Iraq. The recent fighting in Basra was the latest chapter of a conflict between Sheik al-Sadr and his main rival for dominance of the Shi'ite heartland: the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, led by a U.S. and Iranian-backed cleric, Abdulaziz al-Hakim. Mr. al-Maliki and his Dawa Party are allied with Mr. Hakim, and they are using the Iraqi government to battle Sadr.

By launching last month's offensive in Basra, Mr. al-Maliki's main goal was to weaken the Sadrists before the provincial elections because he is worried that his bloc will lose to them. Unable to defeat the Sadrists militarily, Mr. al-Maliki and his allies are now trying to rig the system and keep Sheik al-Sadr out of politics.

It's virtually impossible to wipe out the Sadrist trend, which is a social, political and military movement that enjoys wide support, particularly among young and poor Shi'ites.

If Mr. al-Maliki is serious, he should dissolve all militias including those linked to the government, especially the Supreme Council's Badr militia. If the Iraqi government targets all the militias equally, the Sadrists would be forced to disband the Mahdi Army or risk a public backlash. Right now, most Iraqi Shi'ites can see that Sheik al-Sadr is being singled out.

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