On Friday, the Wilson Center hosted an event, entitled, “Egypt and the Middle: A Turkish Model of Democracy,” discussing the growth of democracy in Egypt and the role other democratic models could play in the process. John Sitilides,Chairman of the Board of Advisors for the Wilson Center Southeast Europe Project moderated and introduced the speakers: Steven A. Cook, the Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations; Henry J. Barkey, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Program and the Bernar L. and Bertha F. Cohen Professor at Lehigh University; and Robert Toscano a former Italian diplomat who was ambassador to Iran from 2003-2008 and India from 2008-2010.
For full notes continue below, or click here for pdf.
As protests continue to escalate in Libya, The New York Timesasks experts what the international community can do and what difficulties lie ahead in a post-Gadhafi Libya. President of the American University in Cairo Lisa Anderson asserts that Gadhafi will leave “a legacy of lawlessness and mistrust in Libya that will be very difficult to surmount” as the regime has thwarted the development of stable institutions and civil society. Multilateral intervention may be necessary, she states. Chairman of the department of political science and geography at the University of Texas at San Antonio Mansour O. El-Kikhi agrees with Anderson, but is optimistic given popular support for the 1951 constitution and the development of local committees to the maintain peace and necessary services. He calls on the West to provide Libyans with necessary non-military goods. Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, echoes Anderson and states that unlike Egypt and Tunisia, “Libya seems destined for a complete change in orientation” which is “likely to be slower, more uncertain and more violent.”
Ronald Bruce St John, author of several books on Libya, states that the creation of functioning and effective social and political institutions will take time and also notes the importance of tribes in creating a provisional government. He calls on the Administration to stress its full support for Libyan protesters. Noman Benotman, analyst at the Quilliam Foundation and former leader of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, also notes the importance of tribal structure and the need to incorporate elements formerly close to the Gadhafi regime to help manage a democratic transition. He calls on the West to “support the Libyan people while not interfering in their choices.” Duke University professor of public policy and political science Bruce W. Jentleson argues that with Gadhafi willing to shoot civilians, a military intervention by coalition forces may be necessary. Journalist Lisa Goldman states preconceptions about leadership and conditions necessary for civil society and democracy are being challenged as a provisionary government has been formed in the eastern Libya by tribal leaders who are willingly sharing power with the youth leaders.
The International Crisis Group’s latest report looks at the popular protest movement in Egypt and its impact on the broader Middle East. The report states that the success of the Tunisian uprising played a critical role in pushing Egyptians to initiate their own movement and also discusses how post-Mubarak Egypt will largely be shaped by the features that characterized the uprising. The report states that a tug of war between the popular but unorganized opposition and the entrenched military, who sought to protect its own interests and hopes to control the pace and scope of change, will likely continue. It also asserts that as the process moves, “from the streets to the corridors of power,” opposition rivalries are likely to re-emerge and the absence of empowered representatives or an agreed upon agenda will harm its effectiveness. Additionally the report states that the Muslim Brotherhood does not have majority support and will likely invest in long-term strategies as its message, “will resonate widely and be well served by superior organization.” However, as its political involvement deepens it will have to contend with internal tensions between generations.
The report also provides recommendations to Egypt’s military council and current power-brokers to help steer the transition and calls on Western powers to provide economic assistance and avoid “attempts to micromanage the transition” or “react too negatively to a more assertive, independent foreign policy.”
The Supreme Military Council reshuffled the cabinet on Tuesday, following Hosni Mubarak’s departure. Twelve members of the cabinet were replaced and the cabinet is scheduled to hold its first meeting on Wednesday. Ahmed Shafiq, a Mubarak appointee, was retained as Prime Minister; a move that upset youth groups that took part in the popular uprising. Also retained were Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit and Justice Minister Mamdouh Marie. Three thousand people gathered in Tahrir Square on Tuesday to protest Shafiq’s continued role in the government. Two posts were added to the cabinet: that of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Egyptians Abroad and Emigration, filled by Yehia al-Gamal, a member of the opposition Democratic Front Party,and Georgette Kellini, a Coptic Christian, respectively. The Information portfolio was eliminated and along with it the Ministry of Information. Munir Fakhri Abdel-Nour, another Copt, was appointed Tourism Minister. Other independents and opposition members were also appointed to the cabinet.
Update: New Deputy PM al-Gamal has been appointed to supervise the Supreme Press Council until the Upper House of Egyptian Parliament is elected, at which point he will become the head of that body.
Human Rights First (HRF) issued a list of recommendations to the Obama Administration on how to deal with the events over the past weeks which demonstrate the unsustainability of policies, which HRF’s Neil Hicks says ”place stability ahead of human rights.” The statement called on the administration to make clear to Middle Eastern governments that they must listen and respond to the legitimate demands of their people, respect human rights, and end policies which use violence and coercion as a means to halt freedom of expression. HRF also stated that the administration must be ready to assist peaceful transitions toward more democratic government everywhere through targeted aid, technical assistance and support for free elections and democratic institutions of all kinds.
On the situation in Libya, HRF advised the advised the administration to take the lead at the UN Security Council in pushing forward plans that include condemning the use of violence, instituting a no-fly zone over Libya and creating a commission to investigate war crimes. It also called for targeted sanctions on Gadhafi and those close to him as well as cooperation with organizations like the African Union and the Arab League to ensure an end to repression in Libya. The report also gives individual country advice for Bahrain, Egypt and Tunisia.
Andrew Barwig, writing at Foreign Policy, argues that we need to pay careful attention to new electoral rules in Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen to ensure that the structure and rules of the game are changed and that the transitional electoral systems do not simply diffuse power and reinforce clientelism. He states that the laws may play a significant role in stifling democratic change citing examples of past electoral reform in Jordan and Tunisia which allowed Ben Ali and Jordan’s monarchy to maintain control over their parliaments. He also states that we should be cautious in promoting proportional representation as it “could result in fractious legislative bodies that are unable to push for more far-reaching constitutional reforms” and may hinder the formation of electoral alliances. He agrees with Marwan Muasher’s assessment that unless new electoral laws actually strengthen elected parliaments, “the ruse of electoral reform may repeat itself,” but cautions against liberal electoral reforms that allow open party lists, multi-member districts and preferential voting as they may allow old party elites a ticket back to power.
On Wednesday, the Middle East Institute hosted an event focused on the public opinions of Egyptians in the wake of Mubarak’s fall from power, entitled, “After Mubarak: What do the Egyptian People Really Want?”The Middle East Institute hosted two speakers; Steven Kull, Middle East public opinion expert and director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, along with, Shibley Telhami, the Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Saban Center of the Brookings Institution.
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Bahieddin Hassan, Director of the Cairo Center for Human Rights, wrote in a recent editorial that although Mubarak may be gone, “the textbook police state which he built up over the years, and that wasn’t much different from that of Tunisia, is still with us.” Hassan believes that the main task of the transition is to “dismantle the pillars of this police state and to lay the foundations of a secular and democratic regime that respects human rights” which he argues can be achieved by dismantling the institutions and constitutional amendments that helped to legitimize the state. Hassan calls for the constitution to be entirely re-written and states that elections should not take place immediately, because Egypt needs to foster a democratic environment capable of electing leaders who will support a democratic future in Egypt rather than “neo-Mubarakism.”
Following a classified meeting with senators, Secretary of State Hillary Clintonannounced that the U.S. will reprogram $150 million for Egypt to help support the country’s democratic transition and assist with their economic recovery. She also announced that Under Secretaryfor Political Affairs William J. Burns and senior White House advisor on international economics David Lipton will travel to Egypt next week to consult with their Egyptian counterparts on how the U.S. can most effectively deploy our assistance in line with their priorities. During the meeting, government officials also discussed the lessons of events in Egypt and the Middle East, the need for the United States to remain fully engaged around the world, and the negative consequences of cuts in H.R.1, the continuing resolution on FY2011 funding, will have on national security. Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General James E. Cartwright added, “Everybody sees the soldier out there in Iraq and Afghanistan, but with every soldier, there is an element associated with either the State Department, our diplomatic corps, USAID. And they’re absolutely essential.”
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hosted a panel discussion on Wednesday entitled, “After Mubarak,” discussing the difficulties that lay ahead for Egypt in the aftermath of Hosni Mubarak’s ouster by protesters and implications for U.S. policy.Marwan Muasher, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment and former Foreign and deputy Prime Minister of Jordan, moderated the panel.Marina Ottaway, Director of the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East Program, and Michele Dunne, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment and editor of the Arab Reform Bulletin, also spoke on the panel.Amr Hamzawy, Research Director and Senior Associate at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, was scheduled to be teleconferenced in live from Cairo, but technical difficulties prevented his participation.
For full notes, continue below or click here for PDF. For video, click here.
Paul Richter, writing in the Los Angeles Times, reports that the Obama administration is concerned that the Egyptian military’s plans to reshape the government “may fall short of producing its promised democratic overhaul” given the military leadership’s failure to lift the emergency law and dismiss the old cabinet, as well as its condensed schedule for constitutional reform and elections which may not provide enough time for political parties to organize. While the army is a respected institution that safeguards stability, it is more inclined toward the status quo and protecting its commercial interests, Richter writes. Egypt’s protest movement also seems worried by the army’s increased authority. POMED Executive Director Stephen McInerney, who has served as an informal advisor to the White House and has been in regular contact with Egyptian groups and activists states, “Groups that have been skeptical are becoming a little bit more skeptical” and that the administration is ”clearly pleased with some steps, and want to be supportive publicly. But they do have concerns.” The administration has been privately applying “friendly but steady pressure” on Egyptian leaders to ensure the transition does not lose momentum and that promises to make irreversible changes towards democracy are upheld.
Wednesday marked the launch of the U.S. State Department’s launch of Strategic Dialogue with Civil Society. Under Secretary for Political Affairs William J. Burnsopened the event by stating: “In recent weeks, we have been awed by the power of committed citizens to effect change in their societies. We’ve borne witness to a remarkable triumph of human spirit and human courage in Cairo and in Tunis. ” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton echoed his remarks and also expressed U.S. support for democratic change stating: “Our support for democracy and human rights is not about siding for or against either governments or citizens. This is about standing up for universal principles and for those in and out of government who support them.” Clinton also discussed the use of diplomatic channels “to engage with civil society as a cornerstone of our diplomacy,” stating that “the transition to democracy is more likely to be peaceful and permanent when it involves both the government in power and the broad cross-section of the governed.” She said that the Strategic Dialogue will focus on issues like governance, accountability, democracy, human rights and women’s empowerment. USAID Administrator Rajiv Shah also discussed the agency’s new approach to development which prioritizes democratic governance and its desire to continue to work with and support civil society organizations.
Sherif Mansour, a prominent Egyptian activist, also made a statement calling for the U.S. aid package to Egypt to reflect the administration’s commitment to civil society. He criticized the State Department for conceding to “pressure from the Egyptian government to cut down funds for democracy and to make it only available for government-approved NGOs.”
Writing at The Huffington Post, Lebanese-American political analyst and POMED board member Randa Slim argues that the events in Tunisia and Egypt have “dealt a heavy blow to old myths about democracy and political transformation in the region” and have constructed a new political narrative for the regime with four major themes emerging. The recent uprisings in the Middle East demonstrate that democracy is not a Western concept. In the past the region has seen democracy in two forms: imposed by the West as in Iraq and the “lip-service democracies of most Arab governments, repressive and corrupt.” We are now seeing a third form emerge in which democracy is “the right of the people to live their lives, and decide their fate without heavy-handed control by a police state.”
These uprisings also show us that real change can come through non-violent means and that a regime which emerges through peaceful uprisings will have “more authenticity and credibility” than those in Iran, Syria and Lebanon. It is also clear that these movements are not Islamist in nature and while Islamists will have “a seat at the table,” moving forward, leaders of both the Ennahda movement and Muslim Brotherhood have announced that they will not seek to gain presidency or majority seats in parliament. These movements were about governance and spurred by the people’s frustrations over corruption, unemployment and poverty and desire for good change and participation in the decision-making process. Now, Slim says, the hard work of nation-building begins; she calls on the West to help these “stories end well.”
POMED Executive Director, Stephen McInerney, was interviewed on Tuesday by Lisa Mullins on Public Radio International’s The World about the role of the United States’ Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) in funding Egyptian civil society groups and the influence this had on the protest movement.
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On democracy and governance assistance to Egypt in comparison to military aid:
“Proportionally, support for democracy assistance is in the neighborhood of 30 million dollars annually, through a variety of different accounts in Egypt, which is quite small.”
The role of MEPI funds on the protest movement:
“It has played some role in helping, kind of, support and sustain some of the young organizations that have wanted to be more politically active.”
“The protest movement is overwhelmingly indigenously Egyptian, and I think we would have definitely seen this protest movement emerge without any U.S. support or any U.S. involvement.”
“Some of the actors who have been involved with the protest movement have been more effective and more organized, connected, and networked than they might have been without our support.”
In an op-ed piece for The Washington Post, former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, argues that the primary lesson from Egypt for other Middle Eastern governments is that they should “accelerate” long delayed political and economic reforms. Rice also indicates that the reform process is not reversible and that attempts to reverse course after initiating such reforms will eventually build up into a situation that resembles Egypt’s revolution. She goes on to say that although the Muslim Brotherhood does in fact represent the “most organized” opposition force in Egypt, in accordance with democratic principles, they should be forced to defend their own political and economic vision for the country before ordinary Egyptians in free and fair elections. Looking at the examples of Hamas and Hezbollah, Rice argues that extremists struggle when faced with the tasks of governance. Dismissing popular parallels in the West between Egypt and 1979 Iran, Rice declares that Egypt’s institutions are stronger and its secularism deeper. Ultimately, long term U.S. interests are better served by promoting democracy in Egypt rather than holding on to the false stability of authoritarianism, she says.
By Monday evening, members of the House proposed their final amendments to H.R.1, the continuing resolution to fund the government through the remainder of the fiscal year. Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE) proposed cutting funds appropriated to the president’s economic support fund by $200 million. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) called for cutting all funds for the Pakistan Counterinsurgency Capability Fund, the Foreign Military Financing Program which includes grants to Israel, Jordan and Egypt, as well as the International Security Assistance Funds appropriated to the president. Rep. Trent Franks (R-AZ) called for an amendment which would condition economic aid to Egypt so far as “the new Government of Egypt fulfills its commitment to the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty signed on March 26, 1979, and to freedom of navigation of the Suez Canal.”
President Barack Obamamade statements to the press on Tuesday in regards to his proposed budget as well as the current uprisings taking place across the Middle East. When asked about the recent uprisings in Yemen, Bahrain, and Egypt and whether the US values stability over freedom Obama responded by stating that there is a lot of work to be done in Egypt, but “we’re seeing the right signals coming out of Egypt” including the military’s reaffirmation of Egypt’s treaties and their initial work in seeking free and fair elections. For the rest of the region he reaffirmed the US’ beliefs in universal rights and stated that he urged all allies not to use “violence as a form of coercion.” Obama went further to state that he was concerned about stability in the region but that a “young, vibrant generation” in the Middle East is looking for change and he urged Arab leaders “you’ve got to get out ahead of change. You can’t be behind the curve.”
On Iran, Obama stated, “And my hope and expectation is, is that we’re going to continue to see the people of Iran have the courage to be able to express their yearning for greater freedoms and a more representative government,” and condemned the regime’s response to protests, “which is to shoot people and beat people and arrest people.”
On Monday, Deputy Secretary for Management and Resources Thomas Nidespresented the 2012 budget for the Department of State and USAID stating that this is “a lean budget for lean times” in which foreign assistance and programs in several countries have been eliminated. He stated that this budget differs from those presented in the past as it is divided into two parts. The first is the core foreign assistance and operations budget which constitutes $47 billion and the second part which covers “extraordinary temporary costs” in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Nides stated that the budget addresses the QDDR recommendations that “we move forward on an integrated national security budget.” He also noted that the budget will include funding to support allies such as Israel, the West Bank and Jordan and for military-to-military partnerships with countries like Egypt, where funding will be contingent on how the situation evolves. In response to a question on aid to Egypt, Nides stated that $1.57 billion dollars had been allocated with $1.3 billion going to the military and $250 million for economic assistance and that ”We are willing and ready to help the Egyptian people. As it relates to 2011, we’ll have funds available as well until we hear exactly what the Egyptian people will need.”
Mikhail Gorbachev, former leader of the Soviet Union, in a recent op-ed for the International Herald Tribune,supported the Egyptian people and argued that the only way forward for the Arab World is through democracy. He addressed the concerns of Islam’s role in Egypt’s future, but stated, “democratic processes and genuine socioeconomic achievements in countries like Turkey, Indonesia and Malaysia offer optimism.” Gorbachev addressed the apparent “bargain” that Arab regimes have struck with their people exchanging freedom and human rights for economic growth, which has since created a disconnect between the people and their rulers. He believes that the events in Egypt have serious implications across the region and that Arab leaders must take heed: “One needs to muster courage for real change, because power without accountability cannot last. This is what hundreds of thousands of Egyptian citizens, whose faces we’ve seen on television, stated loud and clear.”
