Robert F. Worth and Nazila Fathi, writing for the New York Times report that Mir-Hossein Mousavi, in a speech to a teachers’ association, gave his harshest critique yet of the government’s treatment of protesters, many of whom have been killed or arrested without trial. “Can they not see it, feel it? These things are blackening our country, blackening all our hearts. If we remain silent, it will destroy us all and take us to hell.”
A few hours later, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei ordered the closing of one “nonstandard” prison in what Worth and Fathi believe was an effort to deflect criticism over the treatment of prisoners.
Meanwhile, Thursday will mark the 40th day anniversary of the death of Neda Agha-Soltan, who has become an icon of the oppressed opposition movement. 40th day mourning is an important ritual in Shi’ia Islam that, as exemplified by the 1979 Islamic Revolution, can generate large crowds and motivate protests.
Rod Norland of the New York Times identifies the upcoming October 24 census in Kirkuk as a pivotal moment for post-war Iraqi unity. The census will determine how much power Kirkuk has in future national governments. Several ethnic groups, including Kurds, Arabs and minority Turkmen, claim a plurality of the city’s population. Though a referendum on Kirkuk’s status is considered to be required, a census must be performed first to identify eligible voters–a census that Arabs and Turkmen are already threatening to boycott.
It is perhaps ironic that, as Norland notes, that the situation is beginning to mirror Lebanon’s seemingly permanent electoral crisis. As the simplest solution may be to ‘just do nothing’. The last Lebanese census was in 1932. Kirkuk’s last census, though more recent, still took place 52 years ago, in 1957.
In a Foreign Affairs Committee hearing chaired by Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA), the House held its first committee discussion on the recent political crisis in Iran since its June 12 elections.Testifying before the committee were: Patrick Clawson, Washington Institute for Near East Policy; Suzanne Maloney, Brookings Institution; Abbas Milani, Iran Democracy Project and Stanford University; Karim Sadjadpour, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Michael Rubin, American Enterprise Institute; and Orde F. Kittrie, Iran Energy Project, Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
The current issue of the Economistargues that “behind the political stagnation of the Arab world a great social upheaval is under way, with far-reaching consequences.” Citing high voter turnout rates in the few genuine elections that occur in the Middle East, The Economist notes that “Arabs have no difficulty understanding what is at stake…it is their own leaders who have chosen to prevent, rig or disregard elections, for fear that if Arabs had a say most would vote to throw the rascals out.”
Western fears that Islamist groups will take control of Arab democracies are ill-informed, the Economist writes. Try though they might, “Islamists seem to struggle to raise their support much above 20% of the electorate. Non-Arab Muslim countries like Turkey and Indonesia suggest that democracy is the best way to draw out the poison of extremism.”
Although it acknowledges that elections alone do not make democracy, the magazine notes that a number of factors–such as declining fertility, increasing education for women, and satellite TV that transcends the limitations of state media–taken together indicate that the old pattern of Arab government “will almost certainly collapse.”
On June 28, several senior members of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood were arrested, includingDr. Abdel Moneim Abul Fotouh, member of the the Egyptian Medical Syndicate, Executive Bureau of the Muslim Brotherhood and Secretary-General of the Arab Medical Union.
The clampdown on Brotherhood members (including arrests three young reformist Islamist bloggers on July 22) is widely perceived to be a precursor to changing political dynamics in Egypt, particularly with regard to presidential succession. President Hosni Mubarak is considered to be grooming his son Gamal for the post.Predictions are widespread that the clampdown is an attempt to weaken the Brotherhood before Mubarak potentially dissolves parliament and calls for early elections. The government and NDP ruling party have dismissed such predictions as conjecture. Read the rest of this entry »
Early voting began in Iraq for Kurdish Presidential and Parliamentary elections, yet tensions between Arabs and Kurds, particularly over control of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, could be a potentially destabilizing force for Iraq’s future. The Kurdish Globe writes that this election–which will be monitored by international observers–is unlike any other election in the Kurds’ history, because there is more competition than ever before. Yet increased competition begets potential for intra-Kurdish violence, particularly in areas where campaigning has been fierce, such as in Sulimaniyah.
The Washington Institute’s J. Scott Carpenter and Ahmed Ali provide a detailed overview of the Kurdish political landscape and conclude that the incumbent coalition seated in the Kurdish Regional Government, as well as its president Masoud Barzani are likely to retain power. The 2009 Election law, which created list voting (voting for a slate of coalition candidates rather than individuals), favors organized parties, like that of the incumbents, sidelining individual candidates or independent groups.
Yesterday, Secretary Clinton said that the U.S. is still willing to reach out and engage Iran, but given Iran’s internal political situation, it seemed unlikely that anybody in Tehran is in any position to reach back. The writers of the NIAC Insight blog have applauded Clinton’s reading of the situation.
Writing at Democracy Digest, Michael Allenmakes the case that the Iranian government is “hemorrhaging” power (borrowing the term from Ali Ansari) as Mir-Hossein Mousavi forms a broad based reformist group that will organize his supporters by legal means.
At the Council on Foreign Relations, Greg Bruno assesses the media landscape in Iran, particularly in light of last month’s contested elections. Iran’s oscillating policy, Bruno writes, is due in large part to constitutional language that, although guaranteeing freedom of the press, provides a number of exceptions that are easily manipulated and abused. The press law of 1986 goes one step further, prohibiting journalists from “promoting subjects which might damage the foundation of the Islamic Republic.” Bruno’s piece also provides a useful review of Iran’s leading news sources in print, broadcast media and online.
Pew Research has just released a new poll indicating that Barack Obama has improved opinions of the U.S. around the world and in the Middle East, with Israel being the sole exception of those countries surveyed. Sam Stein of the Huffington Post highlights Obama’s June 4th speech to the Muslim world as one factor in this trend, causing his confidence ratings amongst Palestinians, for example, to increase by 12 percentage points.
Stein also pointed out that the recent polls show that for the first time in one of the Pew surveys, an American president is more popular than al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in most Muslim states.
Three prominent Egyptian Islamist bloggers were arrested yesterday, including Ahmad Abu Khalil, Abdel Rahman Ayyash and Madgy Saad were detained yesterday. The Arabist writes that these three young bloggers are influential voices calling for reform within the Muslim Brotherhood. Additionally, they advocate for the release of reformist senior Brotherhood member Dr. Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, who was detained in June. Egypt has cracked down on political reformists before, yet MENASSAT writes that the repression of young reformist Islamist bloggers is a turning point for the Brotherhood’s relationship with the government, since its senior members are most often detained.
J. K. Choksy and Nina Shea write in the National Review Online that attacks on religious freedom in Iran are widespread and under-acknowledged by the West. The authors cite recent repression of Christian and Jewish public and private worship, as well as the historical targeting of Baha’i. Discrimination is widespread, particularly against the Baha’i, who have limited access to higher education and property rights. Moreover, Islamic jurisprudence favors Muslims, write Choksy and Shea; non-Muslims have a limited capacity to defend their rights in Iranian courts. In light of the international attention paid to the oppression of opposition supporters, the writers ask why religious minorities have for so long been “forgotten.”
Gerald Seib writes in the Wall Street Journal that time is running out for the U.S. in dealing with Iran. Countering the country’s rapidly expanding enrichment program is an urgent necessity for the U.S., but it must also move carefully to avoid conferring legitimacy on President Ahmadinejad, he argues.
Seib suggests two potential options for dealing with the Iranian threat. One is reaching out to Iranian leaders other than Ahmadinejad. Though he writes that the better option is talking to the Iranians on a multilateral level with the Security Council and Germany, rather than bilaterally.
The ball is in Iran’s court; dialogue with Iran will reveal its willingness to curb its enrichment activities, CFR’s Richard Haass says to Seib. If not, Haass argues, then multilateral action could be taken with the Security Council on sanctions. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves in talking about sanctions from Genva, writes a Washington Post editorial. The power struggle in Iran doesn’t bode well for President Obama’s timetable for an agreement by September. Iran’s internal ferment offers a greater chance for change than sanctions or negotiations with the regime’s leaders.
The Post suggests that Obama must tread carefully, so as not to empower the regime through negotiations, which Ayatollah Khamenei could use to bolster his floundering standing. Obama should focus on clarifying “that the United States stands with those seeking peaceful and democratic reform. If they do not succeed, neither will any meeting in Geneva.”
A recent report released today by Amnesty International (AI) condemns Saudi human rights violations and abuses that have occurred under the auspices of its counterterrorism program. The BBC reports that although Saudi Arabia has been credited with quelling al-Qaeda activity in the country, thousands of prisoners have been tortured, executed or detained without trial. Saudi Arabia has shrouded many of these cases in secrecy on “security” grounds.
In the name of fighting terrorism, the abuses have worsened an already poor human rights situation, says Malcolm Smart, Director of AI’s Middle East and North Africa Program. What’s worse, he claims, is that this has gone unnoticed in the international community. “The Saudi Arabian government has used its powerful international clout to get away with [abuses]. And the international community has failed to hold the government to account for these gross violations.”
The report says that anti-terrorism measures have hampered progress on human rights reform:
“Since 2001 the counter-terrorism policies and practices of the Saudi Arabian authorities have largely disregarded human rights law and have exacerbated an already dire human rights situation in the country. Firstly, they have had a profoundly negative impact on the country’s human rights framework. Secondly, they have substantially increased the range and number of victims of human rights violations…The counter-terrorism measures set back promising legal reforms and led to a proliferation of laws and regulations unqualified by human rights standards.”
The agreement among Palestinian factions to hold elections in 2010, which will buttress a crumbling Palestinian National Authority, faces challenges, writes Vladimir Pran for the International Foundation for Electoral Systems. First, he argues, all parties must establish a new intra-Palestinian political agreement to create a framework for administering the elections, but this will likely require concessions from Hamas. At the same time, he insists that Fatah’s internal disarray must be sorted out before the poll by democratic means.
Pran writes that Israeli cooperation and international support is integral to the elections. In 2006, the international community provided critical support to the Palestinian Central Elections Commission’s (CEC) outreach and voter education, as well as backing campaign organization and funding international observers, which ensured transparency. With Hamas’ hold on power, similar international support in 2010 is uncertain.
Pran argues that the final challenge facing the elections is whether agreement can be reached on the legal status of the 2007 election law between the PA and Hamas. The election law was instituted by PresidentAbbas under emergency law and–depending on interpretation–could be interpreted as illegal.
Writing for ForeignPolicy.com, Nathan Browndocuments the controversy surrounding Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak’s choice of Faruq Sultan to serve as chief justice of Egypt’s Supreme Constitutional Court. “Parts of Egypt’s judiciary,” Brown writes, “have earned a reputation for professionalism and independence; other parts have distinguished themselves for their usefulness in working to legalize the whims of the country’s rulers. His critics charge that Sultan’s career places him squarely within those latter parts.”
Brown notes that the pick is particularly important as one of the chief justice’s constitutional duties is to oversee presidential elections, the next of which are scheduled for September 2011.
