November 30th, 2009 by Jason

In response to an IAEA resolution criticizing Iran’s failure to cooperate with its nuclear program (see here for full text),  Iran has declared it will no longer voluntarily cooperate with the IAEA and announced its intention to build 10 new nuclear enrichment sites. In addition, one conservative legislator threatened that Iran will pull out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty altogether, a threat that most analysts consider empty. In related news, Yukiya Amano of Japan has now replaced Mohamed ElBaradei as IAEA chief.

Gary Sick provides some skepticism of the plan to build so many nuclear sites, calling it a “classic Ahmadinejad bluster response to the recent IAEA resolution.” Specifically, he cites the immense practical difficulties the plan would present as well as the oddity that the decision came from the presidential cabinet and not the Supreme National Security Council as would be typical. Sick’s skepticism was also echoed by U.S. officials, according to Laura Rozen.

Andrew Sullivan contends the announcement confirms that there has been an “internal coup by the Revolutionary Guards, made brutally manifest by the response to the Green Revolution.” Noting the IRGC’s growing influence, Sick predicts “we may see a new strongman emerge from the military, as has happened in so many other countries in the Middle East and elsewhere when the political status quo was shattered and everything was in flux.”

Discussing American foreign policy, Massimo Calabresi in Time suggests, for that reason, the IRGC presents a “most promising target for expanded sanctions.” In fact, additional sanctions grow increasingly likely as the White House warned that “time is running out” for the Iranian regime to cooperate. In light of the increasing pressure,  niacINsight praises a recent op-ed by  Maziar Bahari in The Washington Post in which he contends the U.S. must continue nuclear negotiations and should only impose “smart sanctions that solely target Iran’s nuclear program and do not affect ordinary Iranians.” Furthermore, he urges President Obama to stand with the Iranian people and not sacrifice their interests for “tactical gains.”

Ali Chenar at Tehran Bureau similarly worries that many in Washington have “fixated on the nuclear talks” and forgotten their long-term national interest in supporting a  ”democratic and peace-seeking Iran.” Roger Cohen also calls on President Obama to take a more forceful rhetorical stand against Iranian human rights abuses, while Paula J. Dobriansky and Christian P. Whiton in Foreign Policy explore how to support democratic reform in Iran. Among other suggestions, they propose high-level round table discussions between foreign heads of state, Ayatollah Khamenei and candidates from the previous election. Finally, Andrew Sullivan cites Steve Simon from the Council on Foreign Relations who warns that, among other consequences, an Israeli strike on Iran would weaken the Green Movement as Iranians would “rally around the flag.”

Within Iran, reformers are still being harassed by the regime in Tehran. Recently, the government confiscated Shirin Ebadi’s Nobel Peace Prize and froze her financial assets because she failed to pay her taxes, a claim Ebadi vigorously denies.  In response, Juan Cole insists “her moral authority cannot be pilfered by some fundamentalist lowlife employed by a pedestrian authoritarian regime.” Meanwhile Tehran Bureau reports that an arrest warrant was issued for reformist Behzad Nabavi prior to the June 12 election, not during the post-election demonstrations. He is one of many reformists detained in prison. Furthermore, the Open Society Institute condemned the Iranian government’s recent charging of Dr. Kian Tajbakhsh with espionage as “entirely without merit.”

Finally, as Basij militia harassed Mehdi Karroubi during a recent visit to Qum, Iran’s parliament earmarked $20 million to investigate and “resist” human rights abuses committed by the U.S. and Britain.

Posted in Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Elections, Freedom, Human Rights, Iran, Israel, Judiciary, Legislation, Military, Oil, Reform, US foreign policy, United Nations, sanctions |