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James Denselow

James Denselow

Posted: December 21, 2009 07:00 AM

Send a US Ambassador to Damascus

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Change in Syria is unlikely to come quickly. But in the meantime, we shouldn't keep it out in the cold.

Critics of Syria have in the past compared the tale of the Assad dynasty to that of the Corleone family in The Godfather. In a National Geographic article this month (which infuriated the Syrians to the extent that their Washington ambassador issued a point-by-point rebuttal), Bashar is cast as Michael Corleone. Like Al Pacino's character, Bashar was called back from abroad to take over the family business following the sudden death of his brother Basil in a car crash (aka Santino Corleone, killed in a car ambush).

Michael Corleone promised to change things and make the family legit, much like Bashar, who was "neither stained with blood nor corrupted by radicalism or incompetence" and who promised change to Syria as the "Damascus Spring" arrived when he inherited the presidency in 2000.

Like Corleone, however, Bashar has failed so far to fundamentally change the authoritarian character of the Syrian state. The Damascus Spring was followed by a Damascus Winter, as the bitter winds of regime change swept the region during the Bush years. Yet Syria survived and ever since the Baker-Hamilton report recommended engaging with Syria, the west has been desperately trying to make Damascus an offer it cannot refuse - abandon Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran and come in from the cold.

However, much like attempting to restart a marriage after years of acrimonious divorce, engagement is proving stilted. One of the conclusions in the series of briefing papers produced by the International Crisis Group (ICG) this month suggested that if Syria can endure the isolation brought upon it by the Bush years, the regime will ask why it should change at all.

Ian Black asked in October whether Syria sees itself as "in the cold" and in need of "the west," considering that its relations with Iran, Turkey and powerful proxy groups are so strong, and that relations with Saudi Arabia have just been patched up.

Recent events were a display of this emboldened Syria. Back in 2005, the country that former CIA-man Flynt Leverett described as "a comparatively small, internally conflicted, economically underperforming, and resource-poor Arab state" was forced to make a humiliating withdrawal of its military from Lebanon.

Four years and a multitude of assassinated prominent Lebanese figures later, a line of Lebanese politicians from all the various sect "families" made their way to Damascus last weekend to pay their respects to President Bashar al-Assad over the death of his brother Majd Assad. Traditional allies such as Hezbollah and house speaker Nabbil Berri will be followed by the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Sunni prime minister Saad Hariri. Figures who may have thought of themselves as once on Syria's hit list are now paying their dues to the Damascene court.

Some argue that this more secure regime may be more likely to enact significant change. This theory suggests that with a solid base the Ba'ath party could give more priority to political and ideological ideas than to pure power politics. However, Alan George has dismissed such an idea, writing that the Ba'athist system of governance is "so demoralised and corrupt that power is wielded for no purpose but power itself."

So what hope is there for change in Syria? Lebanese president Michel Suleiman had to delay his visit to Damascus due to meetings with President Obama in advance of Lebanon taking up its place as a temporary member of the UN Security Council. Obama, frustrated with his outreach to Iran and unable to effectively pursue an Israeli-Palestinian peace process, may be tempted to see what Suleiman thinks of the prospect of improved US-Syrian relations.

According to the ICG report, Obama "turned an old page without settling on a new one." There is still no US ambassador in Damascus, an insult that will mean Syria will be unlikely to make any real concessions. In addition, the Americans have stayed quiet whilst in Iraq Maliki has launched into a series of tirades against Damascus, accusing the Syrian government of being linked to recent large scale bombings, this despite the American military recognising improved security along the Iraqi-Syrian border.

As the ICG reports remind us, the instability rife across the Middle East makes any abrupt change in Syria unlikely. Obama should send an ambassador to fully engage US diplomatic channels in order to better assess whether there is any hope of Syria opening up, rather than press for significant change at this time. A "slowly, slowly" approach is by no means a visionary one, but it may be the best option on the table at this time.

 

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Change in Syria is unlikely to come quickly. But in the meantime, we shouldn't keep it out in the cold. Critics of Syria have in the past compared the tale of the Assad dynasty to that of the Corleon...
Change in Syria is unlikely to come quickly. But in the meantime, we shouldn't keep it out in the cold. Critics of Syria have in the past compared the tale of the Assad dynasty to that of the Corleon...
 
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